If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[Trader333]

I remember chatting with Jay before he went on that ill flung commercial venture together with Grey and he was talking about his day trading with grey, and it all really was as simple as he stated in his post above.

The trading may well have been simple but the code behind the VWAP Engine was complex and kept confidential and never revealed. Some of us did work in this area and we were given clues but none of us were able to replicate the success that he had with his version. I agree with Charlton that he showed us how you could use Macci in MTF as well as basket trading but this is not how he personally traded. I can still remember on a few occasions when he made a call that did not fit at all with what Macci was showing in MTF and initially it puzzled me until I learned that he was making calls from his VWAP engine that was not based on Macci or use of it at all.


Paul

 

[DionysusToast]

Last time I wrote that there are only two ways to make money trading, trends or mean reversion, I added the term "directional" trading, but then I got pms asking me to clarify directional lol, so thought I'd leave that out this time.



Don't want to get into the hanky-panky Jayjay and Grey started again, but this post of Jay's sums it up perfectly:

" No B.S. Day Trading
i cannot beleive how simple greys methods were yesterday when i was trading with him. Ok we do have to be aware of news at all times with his methods but they are amazing and so simple and if you can read the market and know when its gone non techical just stay out but even for me this will take time to get. No trendlines, no fibs, no volume, no bs basically, just pure cycle analysis.

Perhaps its futher confirmation that as traders we do like to over complicate and ive been guilty of this for too long now. It works, keep stops tight, run profits and move up stops to breakeven then +10, it works i tell yer."
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/day-trading-scalping/37288-no-b-s-day-trading-11.html#post515736

Couldn't agree more, both about his assement of Grey's method, and about successful trading in general being very KISSy, being predicated exclusively on simple inputs.

And Jayjay was never profitable, even with the things that Grey taught him.

In fact, JayJay wasn't profitable with the things Grey1 wanted JayJay to teach others. I know this first hand from JayJay himself.

As you've opened the can of worms, Grey1 advised JJ to take a trade that ended up blowing his account. Of course JJ was to blame for this for taking such a position. This is the reason that Grey1 ended up giving JJ one of his automated systems.

My point is - if you want to bring the opinion of someone that never made any money from TA (Jayjay) into a conversation about TA - expect to be asked what exactly your point is...

 

[DionysusToast]

Have you done strangles, butterflies and stuff? All this is not what BSD is on about. I think that he is dealing with simple trading policy, which anyone who is starting to trade should be dealing with first..

Look - it's simple.

Somoene goes onto the internet and makes a spurious claim that there are only 2 ways to make money.

Someone else (me) shows how this is not true.

Do we really need to beat that to death ?

 

[BSD]

My point is - if you want to bring the opinion of someone that never made any money from TA (Jayjay) into a conversation about TA - expect to be asked what exactly your point is...

My point is that no one here spent as much time with Grey as Jayjay did, and whether Jay may or may not be profitable is really irrelevant, he spent lots of time with him, got his stuff, traded live with him etc etc, and Jay came away with the verdict that he wrote above and requoted to me, that the stuff Grey was doing live in front of Jay to witness was simple, and that Greys best advice to him was to stop overcomplicating.

But as I said Grey, while making very good money as a trader, was comparatively not by any means even remotely in a league with guys like Richard Dennis.

And this is my point all along...

What seperates the superstars from those that fail is the ability to seperate the truly success relevant factors from the irrelevant noise that the majority will inevitably keep getting lost in.

I mean let's face it the way it works is like this: most people lose in trading, so they keep looking for more and more complex and obtuse theories about markets, determined to sweat lots of blood and tears to wrest some non-existing secret away from the Invisible Great Conductor directing price movement behind the scenes lol.

In the meantime the superstars just get on with it, understand that trading is just a probability game driven by the sum of market participants actions, and make fortunes like Dennis who turned 4oo bucks into hundreds of millions with nothing more complicated than his Turtle Rules.

Honestly.

It cannot get any simpler than that.



Learn to identify a bull / bear flag, keep tight stops and run your winners, don't risk the ranch per trade, and you're set for life.

Finding a good, robust method isn't the problem or the reason why most fail, it's lack of confidence and complete, utter and total lack of discipline coupled with a stronger desire to be right than be net profitable.

 

[BSD]

Hmm still no tofu (hey I'm vegetarian right hehe) from the OP on how he made gazillions without TA so I'll dish up some results of Greys code that he passed on to Jay and that caused all kinda havoc to break lose later when he or they or whatever decided to go commercial for a bit lol:

january results for vwap128 version 12 stocks

total trades 640

losing trades 334 (53%) $139,247
winner trades 306 (47%) $184,644

profit $45,397
comms $6,400

net profit for january $38,995


ave win $603
ave loss $416

expectancy of $62.93 every $416 risked

=================
total trades 326
winning trades 129 (39%)
losing trades 197 (61%)
winning trades $112,413
losing trades $107,701

estimate of comms $1,630

net profit for january $3,082

ave win $871
ave loss $546

positive expactancy of $339.69 vs $333.06

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commercial-systems/52510-looking-backer-my-program-code.html

Not bad and all I'm sure but hardly revolutionary brilliance nor the stuff of wet dreams in terms of winning percentages and risk / reward ratios lol.

Funny part in that thread where out of the blue Jay starts talking to wasp who hadn't said a peep.



My my my, lots of entertainment value can be found here.

Wonder if that OP's Tofu is ever gonna get dished up haha.

 

[wistundra]

Heres an interesting book on TA. Winner Take All by William Gallacher. The author
really bashes TA and its proponents.

I'm not suggesting that anyone actually by this book. In fact just do a search on Amazon
and read the book reviews. I found it interesting.

 

[The Expert]

Once again, no one even bothers to answer my question, and instead, go off rambling about this fellow and that fellow, what he done and did not do, what he might have done and might not have done, really, it is no wonder the majority here are net losers.

For now, all I will say is that Grey1's approach can be replicated by anyone with adequate funding, and what is more, you do not need any of the TA crap to make it happen. Also, the results will be far better than the January returns shown, for they are indeed very poor for the amount of trades taken.

Is it not funny how "commercial" has suddenly surfaced in the conversation, makes you think does it not, or does it!

 

[The Expert]

Hmm still no tofu (hey I'm vegetarian right hehe) from the OP on how he made gazillions without TA so I'll dish up some results of Greys code that he passed on to Jay and that caused all kinda havoc to break lose later when he or they or whatever decided to go commercial for a bit lol:

january results for vwap128 version 12 stocks

total trades 640

losing trades 334 (53%) $139,247
winner trades 306 (47%) $184,644

profit $45,397
comms $6,400

net profit for january $38,995


ave win $603
ave loss $416

expectancy of $62.93 every $416 risked

=================
total trades 326
winning trades 129 (39%)
losing trades 197 (61%)
winning trades $112,413
losing trades $107,701

estimate of comms $1,630

net profit for january $3,082

ave win $871
ave loss $546

positive expactancy of $339.69 vs $333.06

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/commercial-systems/52510-looking-backer-my-program-code.html

Not bad and all I'm sure but hardly revolutionary brilliance nor the stuff of wet dreams in terms of winning percentages and risk / reward ratios lol.

Funny part in that thread where out of the blue Jay starts talking to wasp who hadn't said a peep.



My my my, lots of entertainment value can be found here.

Wonder if that OP's Tofu is ever gonna get dished up haha.

If you do not stop posting silly pictures I will have no option but to contact the mod.

 

[trendie]

Which of the following is best?

1) Do 4 to 6 trades in 1 day and make $2,000

2) Do 1 trade in 30 to 60 min and make $2,000

Without a context in terms of risk required, capital required, etc, I will plump for (1)

the answer is more a reflection of risk aversion, and/or spreading risk across multiple trades, since no data has been declared regarding how often you get to make that $2,000 successfully.

how does answering this question show whether TA is viable or not?

 

[N Rothschild]

i will go for 2) as in my opinion the least amount of trades is always the best option. (aslong as you can take winning trades ofcourse lol)

 

[The Expert]

Which of the following is best?

1) Do 4 to 6 trades in 1 day and make $2,000

2) Do 1 trade in 30 to 60 min and make $2,000

Without a context in terms of risk required, capital required, etc, I will plump for (1)

the answer is more a reflection of risk aversion, and/or spreading risk across multiple trades, since no data has been declared regarding how often you get to make that $2,000 successfully.

how does answering this question show whether TA is viable or not?

We will get to that is due course, but there was also another very important question about Grey1.

 

[trendie]

We will get to that is due course, but there was also another very important question about Grey1.

Didn't want to go off rambling about this fellow, and what he did or didn't do,etc.
thought I would focus on the original question.
otherwise you run the risk of skewing your own thread by going off in all directions.

 

[The Expert]

Didn't want to go off rambling about this fellow, and what he did or didn't do,etc.
thought I would focus on the original question.
otherwise you run the risk of skewing your own thread by going off in all directions.

I asked a specific question, did I not!

 

[The Expert]

Now, let us look at a few basic facts and see if we can make any sense out of it.

1.Many here say trading is simple, yet most know it is not.
2.Many here say that RTA is useless, but Ok when someone else uses a modified version of it and makes some money.
3.Many here thinks the sun shines out other traders back sides, even though they have no financial reason to think so.
4.Many here are convinced that I am not genuine, even though they know I know what I am speaking about.

Please give me the respect I deserve or I will make it even more cryptic and only 1 or 2 here will ever get some real value from what I will reveal.

 

[trendie]

I asked a specific question, did I not!

you started off asking a specific question. but now you're asking two specific questions. if you intend to simply answer a question with another question, being evasive, then complain when people give you short-shrift, you're really bringing it on yourself.

to indulge you, I will seek out the question, and reply, shortly.

 

[N Rothschild]

just to add, there is no real right or wrong answer to the question, and just because someone self proclaimed "expert" says one or the other is correct doesnt make it so.

but i do agree with TE on TA being aload of guff!

 

[trendie]

Thank You for clearing that up.

Now, I have a very simple question for all, in relation to what has been explained.

Based on what we have heard about Grey1's approach, style, system, call it what you like, what do think he was actually doing in relative terms, apart from the obvious which has been stated.

This is very important, as if you understand what he was actually doing, then you will know why it is not suited for most, and why very few, if any, have been able to replecate what Grey1 was actually doing.

in broad brush terms, I believe Grey1 was buying strength and selling weakness.

 

[BSD]

Hey Trendie mate hows life

Actually after all the hype I was distinctly underwhelmed about Greys trading when I witnessed that live, the pretty large breathing room he gaves trades initially, then the fact that he closed most of his position almost immediately even tho he claimed he wasn't a scalper, etc.

I wrote this at the time when Jay was starting to market his / their commercial room as the holy grail which absolutely it wasn't expectancy wise, and Greys absolute returns of 2K - 10K / day most definitely don't put him in any kinda market wizard territory whatsoever either:

"The reason grey makes money has ZILCH to do with any indicator, the reason he makes money in a market that has a very strong tendency to revert to mean is that he like pretty much every floor trader in ages past faded tops and bottoms, only because grey is more of a mathematical person he does what they did off of price levels via indicators.

That's it.
Grey's method doesn't get it right any more than anything else I've ever seen, the reason he has a high hit rate is NOT some magic indicator where the mere notion of it's existence is really just nonsense driven by wishful thinking already, no, the reason for his high winning percentage is because he picks tops and bottoms in a market that constantly reverts to mean, he then gives his trades quite some room to breathe initially, and then pockets 3/4 of his winners almost as soon as they turn profitable.

THAT is the success relevant element in what Grey does, and does well at that as far as I can tell.

But it is no rocket science people, let alone a holy grail.


No secret behind any of that.

Essentially thirty years ago Marty Schwartz was doing what these guys are doing here, picking reversals off of multi time frames via indicators including moving averages for trend and stochastics etc.

Made him on average (non-compounding) 33% / month that did, far more than being proposed here.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gen...l-trader-forum-where-headed-6.html#post595700

Jay was going on and on with some complete nonsense that they had some magic button indicator they'd bought off of Goldman Sachs lol, nonsense by and of itself already, but also because the results just weren't spectacular nor did they match the hype, and the higher hit rate of his discretionary trading via the far lower results of his mechanical system are really just a function of his taking small profits almost immediately.

Right, dinner time. See you 2morrow.

 

[Da.DesiTrader]

The Expert,

This thread has been polluted as you mentioned most of people dont think you are genuine. Just my 2 pence, it might be helpful if you can post/suggest what (instead of RTA) has been successful for you?

I hope this can divert energy back into positive and more objective side (which is to be profitable and not just a flame war winner), which I think was your initial intention. No offence intended.

 

[episteme]

So does anyone actually believe that TA or RTA should actually be used in isolation? It's all about the context.

Learning about TA is very very useful for all traders. Understanding the aspects of the markets that can be quantified is a good way to learn about how they work. The breadth of signals, the ways they are calculated - understandig these can begin to give you that understanding of market context. A lot of great traders have spent a lot of time developing these quantitive views.

Once you can identify a few TA's that fit with your trading style (you need to find that first too if you don't already have a good understanding of your own personality) and can combine that with an ability to spot the context in which they increase proability then you are on the right path.

I'd be very wary of people trying to say otherwise (unless they are buy and hold, news or fundamental traders)