If you want to fail as a trader, study TA

[Mysteron]

To TE, you ask why so many fail with so much readily available info.

They fail because the info is not enough, they fail to properly manage themselves, their expectations and their risk.

Initially they think every trade will be a winner, when they're not, if they're still in the game ( and havn't over exposed and failed to exit on a loss, allowing it to develop into a critical loss), they start to fear the Market and start to view Market data as threatening, which skews their objectivity all together, and ultimately makes them cut winners and let losers accumulate.

It's not the data or the analysis method that is the problem, but rather the trader's psychological view.

That's why so many fail and it has got naff all to do with technical analysis.

Mysteron, please would you post a link to that pdf on volume spread analysis.

Thanks.

At the end of the text on the link below is another link to to the PDF file: VSA BASICS from MTM

http://www.informedtrades.com/510408-bottom-reversal-step-step.html

 

[The Expert]

pict 704 "the secret 7" will probably have something to do with The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information, Is this right Mr Expert? The www is very valuable.

Not sure about that one GO, but it sounds interesting, so I will look it up and let you know what I think

Well done, btw, nice to see someone thinking for themself:clap:

TE

 

[The Expert]

Have to look into that - is it easy to catch crabs ?

Charlton

I like crabs legs A LOT

Dressed crab, now there is one to look out for

And, what about The Crabby Patty, you know, the one Spongebob Squarepants cooks up for all those smelly fishes:cheesy:

TE

 

[kimo'sabby]

I like crabs legs A LOT

Dressed crab, now there is one to look out for

And, what about The Crabby Patty, you know, the one Spongebob Squarepants cooks up for all those smelly fishes:cheesy:

TE

Spongebob! Only a parent or grandparent would know that, now you are making this whole arguement too personal.

I don't want to think of you as a human, i want to think of you as a means to an end!

Stop being personal, you are trying to distract.

I need to hate my competitors!

 

[The Expert]

To TE, you ask why so many fail with so much readily available info.

They fail because the info is not enough, they fail to properly manage themselves, their expectations and their risk.

Initially they think every trade will be a winner, when they're not, if they're still in the game ( and havn't over exposed and failed to exit on a loss, allowing it to develop into a critical loss), they start to fear the Market and start to view Market data as threatening, which skews their objectivity all together, and ultimately makes them cut winners and let losers accumulate.

It's not the data or the analysis method that is the problem, but rather the trader's psychological view.

That's why so many fail and it has got naff all to do with technical analysis.

Mysteron, please would you post a link to that pdf on volume spread analysis.

Thanks.

J19, you seem to be saying one thing, and doing another

It is clear that you are still in the "gather as much as you can" stage, which, I can tell you now, is just a total waste of time

I have, at this point in time, stated some KEY things that will allow any savvy person to seek out low risk trades, place a bet with low risk, and the potential reward will be far greater than the risk taken on.

This is what successful trading is all about, and, the only way one is going to learn how to perfect it is to actually DO IT, not talk about it

We will call them clichés, as it sounds appropriate, so, what is the most important cliché to remember and have on the tip of your tongue to repeat many times before you place any trade:?:

BTW, I am considering leaving you in, but you are going to HAVE TO do better than that

TE

 

[The Expert]

Spongebob! Only a parent or grandparent would know that, now you are making this whole arguement too personal.

I don't want to think of you as a human, i want to think of you as a means to an end!

Stop being personal, you are trying to distract.

I need to hate my competitors!

The Expert never tells lies

Here is Spongebob after running out of Krabby Patties (note the correct spelling):cheesy:

How many smelly fishes can you seecheesy:

 

[The Expert]

ok......so regarding the palm trade.

1. It was in an extremely narrow trading range after a long downtrend.:clap:
2. Buy low, sell high.
3. Narrow range leads to wider range.:clap:
4. There was an upgrade by bmo.
5. It was near a round # which usually seems to attract attention.
6. The weekly range for a year was 1.74.
7. The price on the daily chart formed a narrow range or slim jim pattern.
8. If you took a trade based on anticipation of a breakout move up of the daily pattern you could have a very small stop because the avg daily range had dwindled to a very small amount.
9. You could have a large reward compared to the stop based on a move up the "avg weekly range" and the resistance target.
10. The futures were up the morning you bought.
11. You finally sold at resistance :clap:which was also close to the avg weekly range.

Were any of those reasons that you bought? I had to get one didn't i?:clap:

By the way how long should i go back when determining the "avg daily range" and the "avg weekly range". I missed that part.

it depends on the stock you are looking at:idea:

te

 

[The Expert]

There has been speculation in the media and tip-sheets on that stock for weeks. Primed and ready to go all it needed was something of substance and in piled the crowd. You admitted that you heard or read about it so it somewhat follows that you were influenced by or chose to run with the speculators and that you were tipped off by something not of your own creation.

You may assume what you like about my knowledge of whatever but rest assured that it is wrong.

If I was anything like you either I or a member of my family would be seeking The Expert's advise.

You are now ASKING me for help then

:smart:TE:smart:

 

[The Expert]

:clap::clap::clap:

Lets see who will get this one first:?:

This was mentioned

Very astute reader, but, what are the 2 lines and what might be significant about the picture, as, will be confirmed over the coming weeks:idea:

Well done, another good bit of individual thinking

TE

 

[kimo'sabby]

The Expert never tells lies

Here is Spongebob after running out of Krabby Patties (note the correct spelling):cheesy:

How many smelly fishes can you seecheesy:

I only ever play a game, you may think i'm being personal, but it's all part of the game.

 

[Mysteron]

Ok......so regarding the PALM trade.

1. It was in an extremely narrow trading range after a long downtrend.
2. Buy low, sell high.
3. Narrow range leads to wider range.
4. There was an upgrade by BMO.
5. It was near a round # which usually seems to attract attention.
6. The weekly range for a year was 1.74.
7. The price on the daily chart formed a narrow range or slim jim pattern.
8. If you took a trade based on anticipation of a breakout of the daily pattern you could have a very small stop because the avg daily range had dwindled to a very small amount.
9. You could have a large reward compared to the stop based on the "avg weekly range" and the resistance target.
10. The futures were up the morning you bought.
11. You finally sold at resistance which was also close to the avg weekly range.

Were any of those reasons that you bought? I had to get one didn't I?

By the way how long should I go back when determining the "Avg Daily Range" and the "Avg Weekly Range". I missed that part.

Really a question for TE regarding 1,2,3 (not detracting from Macattack )
Isn't the interpretation that The Generals/Smart Money have been absorbing supply during the narrow trading range. If that was confirmed somehow (maybe by instinct and understanding of how The Generals operate) then there would be high probability that the price would not drop much further as further selling would likely to continue to be absorbed and that a breakout would likely follow once supply was exhausted.

 

[montmorencyt2w]

You know what Tim, I think you've just encapsulated the entire debate with that.

[This was the tools, carpenter, and table analogy].

That was a great analogy, and quite instructive, but it does not necessarily demonstrate the case for TA.

You can give an expert carpenter, or joiner a set of car mechanic's tools, or a set of bricklayers tools, or a set of electrician's tools, and he'll have his work cut out to make you a good table.

On the other hand, an expert, experienced, enterprising carpenter or joiner with sufficient ingenuity with an inadequate set of tools will almost certainly do a better job than a beginner with a perfect set of tools.

So the question is: are the tools in the average TA tool-kit adequate for the job?
Maybe, maybe not. But the fact that an expert, experienced, enterprising trader with ingenuity who appears to be using TA and is winning does not necessarily mean that his winning is down to his TA. He is bringing a lot more to the party than that.

 

[jon1971]

J19, you seem to be saying one thing, and doing another

It is clear that you are still in the "gather as much as you can" stage, which, I can tell you now, is just a total waste of time
TE

OK Mr Know it allcheesy:

Actually I'm looking at ways of incorporating volume (not necessarily VSA) into my method, although it is a neat little standalone system as it is.

Hardly gathering as much as I can.

 

[The Expert]

Really a question for TE regarding 1,2,3 (not detracting from Macattack )
Isn't the interpretation that The Generals/Smart Money have been absorbing supply during the narrow trading range. If that was confirmed somehow (maybe by instinct and understanding of how The Generals operate) then there would be high probability that the price would not drop much further as further selling would likely to continue to be absorbed and that a breakout would likely follow once supply was exhausted.

OK THEN, here we go, and now, watch all the "experts" reply:cheesy:

Trading IS GAMBLING

If we are to GAMBLE, we must be willing to lose.

If we are willing to lose, we must not lose too much.

If we do not lose too much, then we can make more trades and get better at it.

If we get better at it we will make more money.

So, what must we do:?:

TE

 

[jon1971]

At the end of the text on the link below is another link to to the PDF file: VSA BASICS from MTM

http://www.informedtrades.com/510408-bottom-reversal-step-step.html

Got the link, thanks...

 

[The Expert]

[This was the tools, carpenter, and table analogy].

That was a great analogy, and quite instructive, but it does not necessarily demonstrate the case for TA.

You can give an expert carpenter, or joiner a set of car mechanic's tools, or a set of bricklayers tools, or a set of electrician's tools, and he'll have his work cut out to make you a good table.

On the other hand, an expert, experienced, enterprising carpenter or joiner with sufficient ingenuity with an inadequate set of tools will almost certainly do a better job than a beginner with a perfect set of tools.

So the question is: are the tools in the average TA tool-kit adequate for the job?
Maybe, maybe not. But the fact that an expert, experienced, enterprising trader with ingenuity who appears to be using TA and is winning does not necessarily mean that his winning is down to his TA. He is bringing a lot more to the party than that.

When I saw your long nick i thought it was wantmoremoneyt2w:cheesy:

You are of course CORRECT:clap:

To add, a GOOD tradesman can turn his hand to any job, and do a good job of it

Why, simple, it is not the HANDS that do the REAL work, but the BRAIN:idea:

A recommendation is in order

TE

 

[jon1971]

[This was the tools, carpenter, and table analogy].

That was a great analogy, and quite instructive, but it does not necessarily demonstrate the case for TA.

You can give an expert carpenter, or joiner a set of car mechanic's tools, or a set of bricklayers tools, or a set of electrician's tools, and he'll have his work cut out to make you a good table.

On the other hand, an expert, experienced, enterprising carpenter or joiner with sufficient ingenuity with an inadequate set of tools will almost certainly do a better job than a beginner with a perfect set of tools.

So the question is: are the tools in the average TA tool-kit adequate for the job?
Maybe, maybe not. But the fact that an expert, experienced, enterprising trader with ingenuity who appears to be using TA and is winning does not necessarily mean that his winning is down to his TA. He is bringing a lot more to the party than that.

Hmm, well a belief in the basic tenets of Dow theory is a good start, if you don't have that then TA will be at odds with your view of things and is likely to result in cognitive dissonance (I love that phrase, makes me sound all high brow, but I actually nicked it from another thread somewhere on T2W), in which case TA is probably not for you.

Many believe that "the maths" or as Americans like to say, "the math" is only a small part of what is required to be a consistent trader, what is far more important is having the right psychological attitude.

I'll just add this, the way I see it all we're doing in this game is quantifying probabilities, not trying to predict the future, it's impossible to predict the future.

 

[The Expert]

Hmm, well a belief in the basic tenets of Dow theory is a good start, if you don't have that then TA will be at odds with your view of things and is likely to result in cognitive dissonance (I love that phrase, makes me sound all high brow, but I actually nicked it from another thread somewhere on T2W), in which case TA is probably not for you.

Many believe that "the maths" or as Americans like to say, "the math" is only a small part of what is required to be a consistent trader, what is far more important is having the right psychological attitude.

I'll just add this, the way I see it all we're doing in this game is quantifying probabilities, not trying to predict the future, it's impossible to predict the future.

Why not just say GAMBLING:cheesy:

TE

 

[jon1971]

Why not just say GAMBLING:cheesy:

TE

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Card_counting

 

[The Expert]

Got the link, thanks...

Still "gathering" I see

VSA = Very Sad Analysis

TE