If you knew the exact date of a black swan event...

cantagril

Senior member
3,236 961
Since I am a beginner I had to read the definition for black swan at Investopedia.

My thought was to always set a stop loss on all open trades and that should be enough to rescue any account balance.... right?
Wrong. Just look back to the SNB f*** up and what happened with FXCM afterwards.

I was the wrong way round on that day and I can tell you with absolutely certainty that having a stop only protects you from "normal" market conditions. I gave up 9 mths profits on that one day despite my stops.
 

fibo_trader

Legendary member
7,636 131
Wrong. Just look back to the SNB f*** up and what happened with FXCM afterwards.

I was the wrong way round on that day and I can tell you with absolutely certainty that having a stop only protects you from "normal" market conditions. I gave up 9 mths profits on that one day despite my stops.



My my my my my my, Cantagril of the core 30 finally delivers in spades. :)
 

fibo_trader

Legendary member
7,636 131
(Hypothetical situation based on extensive market trend analysis and non-insider information, nothing illegal.)


...that would negatively affect equity markets and only had a couple thousand dollars to trade on it, what would you do to maximize profit in the current market environment?

Thx!


With 2000 dollars? That would already be a black swan ongoing event with no end in sight.
 

Bubba27

Active member
116 5
Wrong. Just look back to the SNB f*** up and what happened with FXCM afterwards.

I was the wrong way round on that day and I can tell you with absolutely certainty that having a stop only protects you from "normal" market conditions. I gave up 9 mths profits on that one day despite my stops.
Well I am new to this... Can you describe how it all went down?

You had open trades in the Forex market and it was business as usual and then out of nowhere there was a black swan event and prices dropped fast, but the whole market was shook so hard that none of your stop losses were never triggered in time? None of them triggered?

Did the triggers eventually go off automatically, or did you have to call your brokerage to have them manually close your trades? That must have been awful. What is SNB? What month and year did that black swam occur??
 

cantagril

Senior member
3,236 961
Well I am new to this... Can you describe how it all went down?

You had open trades in the Forex market and it was business as usual and then out of nowhere there was a black swan event and prices dropped fast, but the whole market was shook so hard that none of your stop losses were never triggered in time? None of them triggered?

Did the triggers eventually go off automatically, or did you have to call your brokerage to have them manually close your trades? That must have been awful. What is SNB? What month and year did that black swam occur??

There's nothing that I can constructively add to the information contained in the link provided by Acme in the post immediately before yours:


If you wish to do further research, you'll find that there is (ironically) a wealth of material on the net. Just try Googling something like "SNB euro cap" for starters - I'm fairly certain you'll get a few hits:)
 

Bubba27

Active member
116 5
I read through the link but a lot of the terminology is new to me.

The timeline is incredible how in only a matter of a few seconds the big banks reacted to the announcement... Oh and then I understand the circuits were going berzerk and could not handle the event.

The black swan could happen again, easily, because the whole event was provoked by a simple announcement...
 

KDI

Newbie
4 0
OP here.

It's that time. Friday (3-6) was the 11th anniversary of S&P 666.

Learn their numbers. It's all in the Good Book.
 
 
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