I feel like im guessing.....

I mean, seriously, why doesn't this fking euro collapse, I've been short for two months now and it's getting to be a bit of a tease .
 
gnr2206 said:
Is there anyway i can better perdict the moves of the market instead of just watchin indicator etc. I feel like im guessing ha
Click to expand...

Maybe you don't need to get better at predicting.

There's a free ebook knocking about called 'Phantoms Gift' - you may find some of the questions you are looking for in there.

It won't have all the answers but right now, you don't even know the questions.
 
Apparently several of the SEC were caught downloading porn in 2007. Maybe that's why they didn't spot all the fraud going on, like Madoff, er Goldman and so on.
 
meanreversion said:
Well, if you thought about the order in which those comments came ... I enquired as to whether a moving average was an indicator AFTER this comment that you re-printed. In my mind, an indicator is MACD, or stochastics, RSI etc. These are the indicators which I've not found to be statistically useful (e.g. MACD crosses signal line thus buy, RSI goes below 70 thus sell)

However, I do use moving averages for a trend filter. I don't consider my system of trading to be indicator based, despite using MA for this purpose (hence the question).

Yet it seems that you are fundamentally opposed to the use of any indicator whatsoever, hence my "each to his own" comment, i.e. if YOU make money without any numerical calculation based on price, then good luck to you.

Please feel free to respond like a 12 year old, that's entirely your prerogative.
Click to expand...

So, you make an assertive comment about indicators and all the work you've put in to prove they give no statistical edge without even knowing what they are exactly, then you have the audacity to infer that I am the 12 year old? :rolleyes: I'm sure I've seen your character in a Fast Show sketch!

More seriously, I wonder how many people you have put off using indicators because you didn't have a clue:rolleyes:
 
new_trader said:
More seriously, I wonder how many people you have put off using indicators because you didn't have a clue:rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Are you friends with oildaytrader by any chance? That's the kind of nonsense he would come out with.

You are worried about ME putting people off indicators when YOU claim they are of no use? Er, are you stupid as well as juvenile?
 
i very much appreciate the comment from all members.

i trade a retail forex account, EUR/GBP mainly as i understand it the most.

i noticed a comment from a member where he likened trading to guessing; he may be right, im not sure but what i want to know is how to firms like Goldman and JPMorgan make such successful traders. Like i understand that they train the employee very well but what do they actually teach? Also how do quants claim to be market neutral and having the ability to predict market moves??

Just a thought. . . . . .
 
gnr2206 said:
i very much appreciate the comment from all members.

i trade a retail forex account, EUR/GBP mainly as i understand it the most.

i noticed a comment from a member where he likened trading to guessing; he may be right, im not sure but what i want to know is how to firms like Goldman and JPMorgan make such successful trades. Like i understand that they trade the employee very well but what do they actually teach? Also how do quants claim to be market neutral and having the ability to predict market moves??

Just a thought. . . . . .
Click to expand...

Some of their profit is simply revaluing mortgage related assets which were severely marked down during the crisis. A decent chunk also comes from being a market maker.. since mid 2007, spreads have widened and volatility has picked up.. it's a good time to be the middle man.

The departments advising governments on debt issuance have also made out like bandits..
 
I don't know how the euro is supposed to drop if the USD is on the low end of the power side. It'd take an invasion or country dropping the euro to make it go south.

Agreed with you, MR on the oildaytrader comment. lol
 
gnr2206 said:
i very much appreciate the comment from all members.

i trade a retail forex account, EUR/GBP mainly as i understand it the most.

i noticed a comment from a member where he likened trading to guessing; he may be right, im not sure but what i want to know is how to firms like Goldman and JPMorgan make such successful traders. Like i understand that they train the employee very well but what do they actually teach? Also how do quants claim to be market neutral and having the ability to predict market moves??

Just a thought. . . . . .
Click to expand...

I think you need to learn about the markets and ignore folk-lore about Goldman/J P Morgan and Quants that you have gleaned from the internet.

Neither Goldman/JP Morgan or quantitative analysts are doing what you think they are doing.
 
As for the OP. The only thing you can predict is where you don't want to be. Keep eyes and ears open for any indications of markets going against for trade, and make your prediction based on that. Hopefully if you are in a winning position and you get a whiff of a change in the market, you can predict when you are going to take your profit.

Most certainly can't predict where the market will go. Things happen in the world and we're just along for the ride.
 
Don't guess, don't predict but evaluate probabilities to reduce risk

gnr2206 said:
Is there anyway i can better perdict the moves of the market instead of just watchin indicator etc. I feel like im guessing ha
Click to expand...

Don't try to predict - just observe, plan and act appropriately.

Start with quite simple observations - is price showing a trending pattern ? If so in which direction ? Is it showing a consolidation pattern ? Can you draw the channel in which it is showing this consolidation pattern ?

What do you see if you change the timeframe up or down ?

How long has it been showing this behaviour and does it show signs of change e.g. trend line flattening out ? To put it another way what is your assessment of the probability of that behaviour continuing ?

If the price is trending how would you trade it ? What signs would you be looking for to close the trade, take profits or stop loss ? In other words what would you be looking for as a sign that the probability of the trade going/continuing to go your way was diminishing ?

If the price is going sideways how does it look in relation to the channel you have drawn ? Is it near the top, the bottom, going up, going down, breaking out ? What does this say about the probability of it moving in a particular direction

Is there any independent news that has a high probability of changing the behaviour of the price ? e.g. oil prices, conflicts, IMF. If so what is the most likely effect and how will you deal with it.

What are the relevant session hours for your currency and what effect do the opening hours of different markets around the world have on your currency. Are you able to glean any useful information from markets opening in other parts of the world before your market does ?

Read Trading in the zone by Adams to begin to understand the nature of risk/probability and how you can apply active money management to mitigate against its effects.

Whether or not you use indicators during your observation is up to you, but if you do make sure you really understand how they are calculated, what they are telling you and the kinds of markets/cicumstances in which they should be used.

I could go on and on, but I repeat it's down to observation, getting to know YOUR market, ACCEPTANCE, assessment and control of probability and risk, planning for what you would do in each of the possible scenarios and active money management.


Charlton
 
I've gotten so wound up in the 'anything can happen' mentality in trading that I'm reluctant to make predictions in other walks of life. Like, you know, I think the Tories will get a working majority but hey ! Anything can happen (Brown might get back in, if he lives thru the kinfe wounds in his back from Harperson and Lord Rhumba of Rio)
 
meanreversion said:
Are you friends with oildaytrader by any chance? That's the kind of nonsense he would come out with.

You are worried about ME putting people off indicators when YOU claim they are of no use? Er, are you stupid as well as juvenile?
Click to expand...

:rolleyes:

No, I'm not 'worried' about you putting people off indicators. You have/had a strong opinion about something when you were not even fully informed about it...get it? It doesn't bother me one iota whether you have put people off indicators, you just have a lot of explaining to do to them now :LOL:
 
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