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Weighbridge
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Yes and no. There are so many of them that it isn't personal.
pedro01
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I would again disagree.
When Fidelity decide to buy a few hundred thousand shares in a stock because it's had an upgrade or fits the style of one of their funds, they are certainly not playing any game of 'take out the trader' when they buy or conversely when they sell.
They are not initiating trades on the crossover of an EMA, when the MACD crosses over, when multiple timeframes indicators point in the same direction or when they see a dragonfly doji.
Of course, a program trading company may be attempting to place the trades at VWAP as much is as possible.
You do indeed have market makers who know where that trading book off Amazon.com told you to put your stop loss. They will definitely take advantage of that as long as they can do that safely and many times they can't.
Let's say someone wants to knock you off your bicycle, do you think they are going to run in front of a bus to do that ? Perhaps it's better to be cycling close to a bus
We shouldn't think that other people playing in our game are even playing the same game as us. It gives us someone other than ourselves to blame when we lose.
Weighbridge
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Well put and I mostly agree. There are no duels, it isn't personal, and there are many different games going on in the same market.
However, the only strategies with which I've found success are ones that on some level try to predict and exploit the behavior of the people playing one of those games. To buy before their buys and to sell after.
When I do that my interests are opposed to those people, because my entry made their subsequent entry worse, and my exit reduces the price at which their holding is valued. These are the people that I'm up against, rather than the people that take the opposite side of my transactions.
In your Fidelity example I wouldn't be up against Fidelity unless I somehow got hold of the upgrade early and bought before them. In my dreams, ha!
However, the only strategies with which I've found success are ones that on some level try to predict and exploit the behavior of the people playing one of those games. To buy before their buys and to sell after.
When I do that my interests are opposed to those people, because my entry made their subsequent entry worse, and my exit reduces the price at which their holding is valued. These are the people that I'm up against, rather than the people that take the opposite side of my transactions.
In your Fidelity example I wouldn't be up against Fidelity unless I somehow got hold of the upgrade early and bought before them. In my dreams, ha!
pedro01
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I think you have to decide yourselves how you view the activity you are engaged in.
I prefer to think that there is no enemy. There is no hunting going on.
It's just a sunny summers day out swimming in the river and it's much more fun swimming with the currents...
I much prefer this in my head when trading than the high-test version.
I prefer to think that there is no enemy. There is no hunting going on.
It's just a sunny summers day out swimming in the river and it's much more fun swimming with the currents...
I much prefer this in my head when trading than the high-test version.
B
Black Swan
I have this phrase, not sure if i picked it up along the way or 'half created' it myself...
"don't hate the game, or hate the players, play the game and play the players".
virtuos0
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If you're a mosquito, what do you do..hmm.. you suck? So if you're happy to be a mosquito you're also a sucker!
Check out this quote from "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" (thank you to whoever it was that posted this recently as a PDF or I wouldn't be able to copy and paste like this!)
"The tyro knows nothing, and everybody, including himself,
knows it. But the next, or second, grade thinks he knows a great
deal and makes others feel that way too. He is the experienced
sucker, who has studied not the market itself but a few remarks
about the market made by a still higher grade of suckers. The
second-grade sucker knows how to keep from losing his money in
some of the ways that get the raw beginner. It is this
semisucker rather than the 100 per cent article who is the real
all-the-year-round support of the commission houses. He lasts
about three and a half years on an average, as compared with a
single season of from three to thirty weeks, which is the usual
Wall Street life of a first offender. It is naturally the
semisucker who is always quoting the famous trading aphorisms
and the various rules of the game. He knows all the don'ts that
ever fell from the oracular lips of the old stagers excepting
the principal one, which is: Don't be a sucker!
This semisucker is the type that thinks he has cut his
wisdom teeth because he loves to buy on declines. He waits for
them. He measures his bargains by the number of points it has
sold off from the top. In big bull markets the plain
unadulterated sucker, utterly ignorant of rules and precedents,
buys blindly because he hopes blindly. He makes most of the
money until one of the healthy reactions takes it away from him
at one fell swoop. But the Careful Mike sucker does what I did
when I thought I was playing the game intelligently according to
the intelligence of others. I knew I needed to change my
bucket-shop methods and I thought I was solving my problem with
any change, particularly one that assayed high gold values
according to the experienced traders among the customers."
Hopefully that might wake a few of you up to reality!
pedro01
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Seems you have outdone yourself on this post.
Any more famous trading aphorisms you want to quote or do you want to quote the whole book ?
Epic fail.
virtuos0
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Can you go and play somewhere else please? There are adults here who would like to learn about trading.Seems you have outdone yourself on this post.
Any more famous trading aphorisms you want to quote or do you want to quote the whole book ?
Epic fail.
pedro01
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Tell me when you want to start - I'll give you a free lesson.
virtuos0
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pedro01
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Excellent decision.
Lesson 1. Read the following for hidden meaning
Go back to the first post in this thread. Note the similarities.
Lesson learnt. Be wary of people speaking in riddles. It may initially make them seem clever but there may be nothing between the lines. Those with substance behind their words will not need to hide behind obfuscation.
Feel free to use this lesson in all walks of life. If this is still not clear. Consider the adage : "When you can't blind them with science, baffle them with bullshlt"
If you still don't understand - go read a book by Ehler.
timsk
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Pete,
Count your lucky stars that SOCRATES is no longer a member of this forum, he'd have your guts for garters coming out with comments like that! In fact, in homage to dear ol' Bertie, I'll do a poor impersonation of him. He'd reply with something like this . . .
'There is no obfuscation in my posts, there is only clarity of thought, absolute clarity, and nothing else. Those that see it, see it - and those that don't - don't. It's all so simple, so easy, yet there are those who strive to make that which is simple, difficult and cloud that which is crystal clear in a mist of obfuscation. The one or two of you who can trade - and there are only one or two of you - will know instantly what I mean, understand everything perfectly and see everything with 20:20 vision. Good day to you all, that is all that I have to say on the matter'.
Count your lucky stars that SOCRATES is no longer a member of this forum, he'd have your guts for garters coming out with comments like that! In fact, in homage to dear ol' Bertie, I'll do a poor impersonation of him. He'd reply with something like this . . .
'There is no obfuscation in my posts, there is only clarity of thought, absolute clarity, and nothing else. Those that see it, see it - and those that don't - don't. It's all so simple, so easy, yet there are those who strive to make that which is simple, difficult and cloud that which is crystal clear in a mist of obfuscation. The one or two of you who can trade - and there are only one or two of you - will know instantly what I mean, understand everything perfectly and see everything with 20:20 vision. Good day to you all, that is all that I have to say on the matter'.
GladiatorX
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Gay.
virtuos0
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No, please teach us something about trading, don't avoid the issue with childish sarcasm, you don't look clever. If you think you have substance, which you obviously do, then give us some.
Go for it, the floor is all yours, you're in the spotlight, then we can all partake in an intellectual discussion of your insightful ideas.
V,
Good luck, you'll need it. If you do try to explain certain goings-on, expect a reply similar to this...
"But it went froo my movin' avridge, anyfin can 'appen mate, that's the game innit!"
Goodnight, Sir, and have a good weekend!
virtuos0
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Lets look at a recent example of 'footprints of the big beast'.
Please everyone bring up a chart of EUR/CHF, daily candles if you will. Now take a gander at March 12, and June 24, what do you see? For anyone that trades forex you should immediately know that this isn't just a footprint, this is a herd of elephants jumping up and down screaming 'shoot me'. Yes it's central bank intervention by the SNB.
This is the most glaringly obvious example of recent times, and it made a lot of people a lot of money. Also by the way it's an interesting example of what happens when 4-5 yards are dumped on the market with no regard to iceberging etc
This kind of footprint, and many other types of footprint are found all the time, on every market, you just have to be a good hunter
Please everyone bring up a chart of EUR/CHF, daily candles if you will. Now take a gander at March 12, and June 24, what do you see? For anyone that trades forex you should immediately know that this isn't just a footprint, this is a herd of elephants jumping up and down screaming 'shoot me'. Yes it's central bank intervention by the SNB.
This is the most glaringly obvious example of recent times, and it made a lot of people a lot of money. Also by the way it's an interesting example of what happens when 4-5 yards are dumped on the market with no regard to iceberging etc
This kind of footprint, and many other types of footprint are found all the time, on every market, you just have to be a good hunter
pedro01
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You can be assured that when the time comes for that, I shall not hesitate to start a fluff-free thread for that purpose.
Now - you seem to have put some meat on the bone of this thread, and as such, I shall not interfere by taking it off on a tangent you hadn't intended. Have some empathy though - not all will have read into the analogy what you expect.
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Lets look at a recent example of 'footprints of the big beast'.
Please everyone bring up a chart of EUR/CHF, daily candles if you will. Now take a gander at March 12, and June 24, what do you see? For anyone that trades forex you should immediately know that this isn't just a footprint, this is a herd of elephants jumping up and down screaming 'shoot me'. Yes it's central bank intervention by the SNB.
This is the most glaringly obvious example of recent times, and it made a lot of people a lot of money. Also by the way it's an interesting example of what happens when 4-5 yards are dumped on the market with no regard to iceberging etc
This kind of footprint, and many other types of footprint are found all the time, on every market, you just have to be a good hunter
V,
Thankyou for this informative post. Now, it is obvious that you are a seasoned practitioner of the 'game', and you may well know all the traits, signatures and habits of the beast and it's multi-faceted personality, but hold on for a second. What may be glaringly obvious to your good self, may not be so obvious to the blind player. The blind player may have been involved with the game for some years, but if that person has been concentrating on the pseudo mechanics instead of the real structure of the beast, then you may as well be talking about playing golf with a tennis racket. Hunting and tracking the market movers is a hard pill to swallow for some.
Paul.
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