How to Identify Trends

ChattiFX

Member
66 4
Hi,

I would guess using a trend based system works for some people and for others it doesn't. In both cases any success is maybe more due to risk/money management, stop positions, exit strategy etc, rather than following a trend based system or not. I'm sure there will be an equal number of people on either side to argue the case... better qualified than me though so I'll leave that subject ha.

Personally though, I find being able to quantify/visualize trends and therefore the way a pair has moved over a time period helps when I'm looking back over past trades to see where I have made good/bad/lucky decisions. i.e. Have I been trading against a bigger trend and losing, trading with a trend and winning but not for the reasons I am basing my decisions on, or has the pair been moving sideways etc...

I've attached some of the charts I use.
-4 different time scales.
-Heiken Ashi candlesticks
-Triangular MA's (multiples of 8 seem to fit nicely). With different multiples of ATR to give a channel. TMA's are multiplied up to fit different timescales, but this is very approximate.
-The Trend Strength indicator is my own simple graphical way to show the height, and difference in height of the HA bars.

So from these charts I can see the movement in varying degrees of detail. So in this case, I would be saying the Pair broadly (weekly) is trending up but this week has been fairly flat (daily), within an 85 point range.

I hope this is of some use. I'm sure other people have different ways of seeing the same information, and others would not see the relevance of price movement on different time-scales etc I just find it helpful.

This is by no means a trading strategy or predictive setup, it just helps me to understand the price movement better.

Anyway hope it helps.

Cheers.
 

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malaguti

Senior member
2,330 445
great charts chattiFX, look closely and you will see the basis of "trend signal" a 3 grand advisory signal systen
 

Brumby

Established member
593 137
The famous turtle failed on live accounts

Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses.
That is an unfair statement and factually incorrect. The reasons are complex and best laid out in Michael W. Covel's book "The Complete Turtle Trader - Chapter 8"
 

15 min tlb

Senior member
2,057 98
That is an unfair statement and factually incorrect. The reasons are complex and best laid out in Michael W. Covel's book "The Complete Turtle Trader - Chapter 8"
You are saying this site Wikepedia is telling lies...............
Richard Dennis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I don't read books from failed traders or writers whose opinions may be biased and incorrect , with the sole motive behind their manipulated opinion being to market their books.

I am not buying his book or giving my money to the picks and shovels merchants of the trading gold rush , the picks and shovels merchants being authors , course sellers , mentors , trading educators ,signal sellers and software sellers.

Google is best my best friend , and I can get everything for free .
 

Brumby

Established member
593 137
You are saying this site Wikepedia is telling lies...............
Richard Dennis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I don't read books from failed traders or writers whose opinions may be biased and incorrect , with the sole motive behind their manipulated opinion being to market their books.

I am not buying his book or giving my money to the picks and shovels merchants of the trading gold rush , the picks and shovels merchants being authors , course sellers , mentors , trading educators ,signal sellers and software sellers.

Google is best my best friend , and I can get everything for free .
Are you suggesting that Wikipedia with a one pager on Richard Dennis and the Turtles is the sole authoritative source of reliability but a researched book covering 269 pages of information and facts is opinionated and biased? On what basis are you drawing such a conclusion besides acting biased and with self directed motive that you accused others of practicing?
 

15 min tlb

Senior member
2,057 98
Are you suggesting that Wikipedia with a one pager on Richard Dennis and the Turtles is the sole authoritative source of reliability but a researched book covering 269 pages of information and facts is opinionated and biased? On what basis are you drawing such a conclusion besides acting biased and with self directed motive that you accused others of practicing?
There is no evidence that this research is anything other than the regurgitated crap , an author packaged into a book.The author makes money by writing books and selling on Amazon and selling courses from his website.

There is no evidence of a successful trading making money from actual trading.95 % of traders lose and become trading failures, they end up as merchants in the trading gold rush.

Why would anyone want to buy books from trading failures?269 pages of regurgitated crap freely available on the internet , something that is done in one page by a professional takes trading morons 269 pages and several books.
 
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NVP

Legendary member
36,535 1,842
hey all....

The Turtle stuff is legend ........but remember it was a different time and a different place

Covell is a showman and his books are part entertainment with a little sprinling of learning in there if you look hard enough.........and mostly not a bad read in my opinion

Re the original question here on trend following ....I would suggest starting with some simple MA based approaches and then develop from there

look at Captain currencies 3 ducks as a starting point .....look him up

cheers
N
 

15 min tlb

Senior member
2,057 98
hey all....

The Turtle stuff is legend ........but remember it was a different time and a different place

Covell is a showman and his books are part entertainment with a little sprinling of learning in there if you look hard enough.........and mostly not a bad read in my opinion

Re the original question here on trend following ....I would suggest starting with some simple MA based approaches and then develop from there

look at Captain currencies 3 ducks as a starting point .....look him up

cheers
N
I read his thread and I learnt something useful , and I read your thread and found something useful.:p
 

ChattiFX

Member
66 4
great charts chattiFX, look closely and you will see the basis of "trend signal" a 3 grand advisory signal systen
Ha maybe I'd be more likely to make money doing that than actually trading myself :idea:

Agree 3 Ducks is worth looking at. It's the starting point that got me to the charts I work from, although I use different MA's and different values, the sentiment is very much the same.
 

Purple Brain

Experienced member
1,613 179
I also use moving averages to give me a sense of direction. The price does this itself of course, but visually, a moving average is far easier to work with. Having established the price action has momentum and therefore the moving average is sloping enough to warrant an entry, I'll get in when I get two consecutive bars supporting the relationship the price has to the average and I'll get out when I get two consecutive bars which run counter to that relationship. I also obviously have an initial stop and move that to new technical levels as the price progresses.