Hot Forex - Market Analysis and News.

[HFM.]

Date : 21st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st May 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Global yields have been on the rise all year, with Treasuries leading the upswing in core markets. The 10-year T-note has climbed 65 bps year-to-date, to 3.05%, and tested 3.12% late in the week. Italy paced the action on the week, however, jumping 30 bps. Numerous factors have served to boost rates, including global growth, inflation expectations, tighter monetary policy, fiscal policy angst, and supply. And rising rates are roiling the markets. Interest rates will remain in the spotlight this week, with Treasury supply, inflation data, and geopolitics all possibly increasing yield further.

United States: Recent strength in U.S. economic data has suggested the slowing in Q1 growth was temporary, and that’s added to the bearish turn in interest rates. Upcoming reports will be monitored for further evidence of the Q2 improvement. Housing data tops this week’s releases, including new (Wednesday) and existing home sales for April (Tuesday), and will provide some insight on how this sector is faring in Q2. Also, reports on April durable goods orders (Friday), May Markit PMIs, and the May KC Fed index will give a current view on manufacturing. The FOMC minutes to the May 1, 2 policy meeting (Wednesday) will help clarify the Fed’s stress on its “symmetric” stance on inflation, and the degree to which Committee members will tolerate above target inflation. Supply factors in prominently too with a record $99 bln in shorter dated coupons to be auctioned.

Canada: In Canada, the markets are closed on Monday in observance of the Victoria Day holiday. The holiday shortened week is thin on data and events. March wholesale trade shipments (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.5% in March after the 0.8% drop in February. This is the final input into the March GDP forecast. A 0.2% GDP gain in March (m/m, sa) is expected after the 0.4% surge in February, as the economy resumes making headway after the temporary set-back in January that saw GDP fall 0.1%. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: It may be a decisive week for the Eurozone and the outlook for the ECB. Various PMI reports, and Ifo readings for May will hopefully bring more clarity on the question whether the slowdown in overall growth in Q1 was mainly driven by temporary factors, or it is the start of a larger down-shift in growth momentum. Even if confidence data stabilizes, as expected, there are still plenty of risks emanating from geopolitics, along with protectionist tendencies, Brexit wrangling, and now of course Italy. There, the populists, who are preparing to take over the government, have agreed spending programs that will not only see Italian debt spiking higher, but will not address the country’s underlying problems it will also set it on collision course with the ECBs and Eurozone peers.

An effective stabilization in Eurozone PMI readings for May (Wednesday) and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 from 56.2, the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 45.7, which should lead the composite at 55.1, versus 55.1 in April. The German Ifo Business Climate reading (Thursday) is also expected to stabilize and an unchanged headline reading is expected *of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months. French national business confidence (Thursday) and German GfK consumer confidence (Thursday) are also seen unchanged over the month, while Eurozone consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to improve to 0.5 from 0.4.The forward looking confidence readings will likely overshadow the second release of German Q1 GDP numbers (Thursday), which will bring the full breakdown.

UK: A flurry of data releases looms on the calendar this week, highlighted by the April inflation report (Wednesday), April retail sales (Thursday), and the second estimate for Q1 GDP (Friday). Monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday) and the May CBI surveys for industrial trends and distributive sales (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively) are also up. A headline CPI at 2.5% y/y is expected, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation. As for retail sales, it is anticipated a 0.8% m/m rise in April, rebounding after a steep 1.2% decline in March, while *Q1 GDP expected to come in unrevised from the preliminary release outcomes of 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. On the Brexit front, negotiations and solution brainstorming continue at pace, and while lately causing some confusion, the overall position should become clearer as the year draws on

Japan: The March all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in rising 0.2% on the month versus the previous 0.4% increase. May Tokyo CPI is forecast rising at a 0.6% y/y clip from 0.5% overall, and unchanged from April at up 0.6% y/y on a core basis.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Lowe (Wednesday) speaks at the Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney. The Bank’s Assistant Governor (Financial Sector) Bullock speaks (Thursday) at the De Nederlandsche Bank Housing Market Seminar in Amsterdam. The data calendar is sparse, with Q1 construction work done (Wednesday) featuring.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 22nd May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields dropped -0.5 bp to 3.054% overnight, 10-year JGB yields lost most of their earlier gains and are at 0.044% and elsewhere across Asia long yields are mostly down as stock markets struggled without fresh new on Sino-American trade in holiday hit trade. Hong Kong and South Korean markets were shut for Buddha’s Birthday and elsewhere across Asia markets yesterday’s recovery fizzled out. Nikkei lost -0.23% as the Yen strengthened and despite reassurance of ongoing monetary stimulus from the BoJ. U.S. stock futures are still slightly higher. Oil prices are up and the WTI future trading at USD 72.49 per barrel.European stock futures are mixed, with the GER30 outperforming in catch up trade after yesterday’s holiday and aided by a weaker EUR. The UK100 future meanwhile is heading south after a largely weaker session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on the U.K., which has public finance data, the CBI industrial trends survey as well as a number of BoE speakers.

FX Action: USDJPY has traded moderately softer during the Tokyo session, retreating below 111.00. This interrupts a run higher that yesterday left a four-month high at 111.39. EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other yen crosses, are also softer today. Stock markets in Asia have been mixed-to-lower today. BoJ-speak from the Governor Kuroda and Deputy Governor Wakatabe today reaffirmed commitment to monetary stimulus, with the former saying the central bank is aiming to lift CPI to the 2% target as soon as possible and the latter saying that target can be achieved with prevailing policy. The remarks follow Friday’s weak CPI data of Japan, where headline April CPI fell to 0.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in March and core CPI ebbed to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% y/y. The outcomes undershot market expectations, and have maintained expectations for the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy to sustain. A Reuters survey of market economists earlier last week found that over half of respondents were expecting the central bank to refrain from exiting stimulative policy until 2020.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Speeches: MPC Member Vlieghe, MPC Member Saunders, BOE Gov. Carney and BOE Remsden

* UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Expectations – at 7.1B pounds deficit in April from the 0.3B surplus seen in March.

* UK Inflation Report Hearings

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 23rd May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields declined as risk aversion picked up and stock market retreated in Asia. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.9 bp at 3.050%, the 10-year JGB down 0.4 bp at 0.037%. Stock markets headed south, with Japanese markets underperforming as the yen advanced and the focus returned global risks including the U.S.-North Korea summit and Turkey financial market stability. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.64% and -1.14% respectively. The Hang Seng lost -1.02%, the CSI 300 is down -0.84%. U.S. futures are also heading south and oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 72 per barrel and it is trading at USD 71.92. European stock futures are declining in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session for equities in Asia overnight. The good news for the Eurozone is that peripherals have so far not been hit and the Italian 10-year yield is down -2.4 bp, the Spanish down -1.5 bp in early trade. The calendar has Eurozone PMI readings, as well as U.K. inflation data, a German Schatz auction and the U.K. CBI retailing survey.

FX Action: The yen outperformed as risk aversion flared up in global markets, while the dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, traded mostly firmer, gaining ground on the euro, sterling and dollar bloc currencies, for instance. EURUSD settled back in the mid 1.1700s after yesterday’s recovery gains stalled above 1.1800. EURJPY dropped sharply, to an eight-day low at 129.70, while USDJPY posted a four-session low of 110.37 in Tokyo, extending the correction from Monday’s four-month high at 111.39. A risk-off sentient, supportive of the yen in accordance with the typical correlative pattern, came amid a cocktail of geopolitical concerns. In the mix was U.S. President Trump saying that that there was a “very substantial chance” of the North Korean summit being delayed. The recent dive in the Turkish lira also mutated into a full nosedive in thin market conditions just ahead of the Tokyo session, posting fresh record lows. Concerns about excessive dictatorial control of Turkey’s economic policies have been negatively impacting the lira. In data, Japan’s March all industry activity index undershoot expectations at 0.0% m/m. The median had been for 0.1% m/m growth. Australian construction data also missed expectations.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone PMIs – Expectations – Central bankers will watch this month’s round of confidence data with special interest and hopes that data will show signs that growth is recovering in the second quarter, after the slowdown in Q1 that was impacted by special factors. An effective stabilization is expected to be seen in Eurozone PMI readings for May and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 *from 56.2. The services reading meanwhile seen falling back to 54.5 from 54.7

* RBA Gov Lowe Speech

* UK CPI, PPI & Retail Index – Expectations – *CPI at 2.5% y/y and core at 2.2% y/y, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation. The PPI is expected at 1% in April from -0.1% seen last month, while Retail Price Index expected at 0.5% in April from 0.1% in March.

* US Prel. PMIs – Expectations – Composite PMI for May expected at 55.0 from 54.9, while Services expected at 54.9 from 54.6.

* FOMC Meeting Minutes

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 24th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th May 2018.

FX News Today

European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields quickly recovered opening losses and are now up 0.7 bp at 0.510%, as peripheral bond markets rally led by Italy. The 10-year BTP yield is down -7.9 bp at a still high 2.310%. Spanish and Portuguese 10-year yields are also sharply lower. Reports that Five Star is considering an alternative finance minister to Savona, who promotes Italy’s exit from the euro may be helping. Stock futures meanwhile are mostly heading south in Europe, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a largely negative session in Asia. Released at the start of the session German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q, and GfK consumer confidence fell back. Still to come the U.K. has retail sales data, ECB’s Praet and BoE’s Carney are scheduled to speak and the ECB publishes the latest Financial Stability Report.

FX Action: Yen out performance has once again been seen, driving USDJPY to a 10-day low of 109.33 and pushing EURJPY further into 10-month low territory. Belligerent rhetoric from North Korea and reports that the Trump administration is mulling a 25% levy on imported cars have provided some added fuel to risk aversion in global markets, which has maintained a safe haven bid for the Japanese currency. The dollar has also remained broadly buoyant, though has steadied off highs seen yesterday versus most currencies. EURUSD posted a fresh five-month low at 1.1675 during the New York PM session yesterday before recouping above 1.1700 following the release of the FOMC minutes to the early May meeting showed the Fed is in no hurry to tighten. Fed funds futures gained a little on the minutes, and were still fully pricing in a 25 bp rate hike in June while showing about odds of about 75% for a further quarter-point hike move in September. Italy will remain in the spotlight and the risk remains that we see further paroxysms in Italian markets as investors digest the formulating policies proposals of the anti-establishment and Eurosceptic coalition government.

German GDP & Consumer Confidence: German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q as expected, leaving the working day adjusted annual rate at 2.3% y/y. The focus was on the breakdown, which was released for the first time and showed a clearer picture on why growth slowed so dramatically compared to the 0.7% q/q rate in Q4 last year. What the data showed were negative contributions from net exports, stock changes as well as government consumption, with the latter contracting -0.5% q/q in Q1, likely due partly to the political vacuum and the long period without a fully functioning government following the inconclusive election last year. Investment contributed 0.2% points to the quarterly growth rate, private consumption -0.2% points, net exports detracted -0.1% as export growth corrected -1.1% q/q, after rising a very strong 2.6% q/q in Q4 last year. The strong EUR may partly be to blame.

German GfK consumer confidence fell to 10.7 with the advanced reading for June, down from 10.8 in the previous month and the second consecutive dip. The index peaked at 11 in February, but remains at very high levels. Still, the full breakdown for May showed a marked decline in the willingness to buy despite an improvement in income expectations. The willingness to save meanwhile declined. Q1 GDP data today still showed a positive contribution from consumption to overall growth, but the GfK numbers at least signal some slowdown ahead.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – Likely to show a pick up (from 0.7% from a dire -1.2% in March) but questions remain this be sustainable through to the summer and remainder of Q2.

* US Initial Claims – Expectations – *A 2k decline to 220k is expected for new claims with continuing claims rising to 1.754 million.

* Plethora of Speeches – Dudley, Carney, Praet, Bostic, & Harker – possibly of some surprises and volatility for USD, EUR and GBP simply from the number of speeches on tap today.

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 25th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields broadly corrected across Asia, and 10-year JGB yields dropped 0.5 bp to 0.034%, as stock markets struggled with geopolitics back on the agenda after Trump cancelled the North Korea summit. Pyongyang seemed to offer an olive branch and Asian markets are up from earlier lows while U.S. futures are posting gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are still down -0.44% and -0.11%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.22% and down -0.14% respectively, as a weaker yen added some support. Treasury yields gained 1.1 bp and are at 2.988%, still clearly below recent highs. Oil prices fell after Russia’s energy minister suggested that OPEC and its partners will discuss the phasing out of supply curbs at next month’s meeting and the WTI future is trading below USD 71 per barrel.

FX Update: The dollar has returned to form, nudging higher versus the euro and yen, and most other currencies. EURUSD is pressing on 1.1700 as the London interbank gets up an running, putting Wednesday’s six-month low at 1.1675 back in the crosshairs. The Fed remains on a tightening track while the sentiment towards the Eurozone is being marred by Italy. USDJPY has recovered to the 109.50 area from yesterday’s 17-day low at 108.95. The lift has reflected part broader dollar firmness and par broader yen weakness. Stock markets recovered some poise Asia, and U.S. equity index futures also lifted some following a shaky session on Wall Street yesterday when the Trump administration cancelled the planned summit with North Korea. Pyongyang said today that it would still be willing to meet with the U.S. There are also reports that Mexico has made an offer to the U.S. in a bid to seal the NAFTA renegotiation.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – expected to stabilize, but comes with a downside bias now after the weak PMI round. The forecasts had been for an unchanged headline reading of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator was expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months.

* UK Second Estimate GDP – Expectations – *Unchanged at 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y.

* US Durable Goods – Expectations – A 4% decline is expected for April, down to -1.4% from 2.6% in March

* Plethora of Speeches – RBA Assist Gov Bullock, BOE Gov Carney, Fed Chair Powell, FOMC Member Bostic, & German Buba President Weidmann *– possibly of some surprises and volatility for AUD, USD, EUR and GBP simply from the number of speeches on tap today.*


Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 28th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th May 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Geopolitics reared its ugly head again, knocking core sovereign yields lower, while elevating those on the periphery especially in Europe. Mixed messages between Kim and Trump kept markets on their toes about the diplomatic climate between North Korea and the U.S., after the summit was called off, then possibly back on again. Along with worries over Korea and China, concerns about Turkey, Italy and now Spain, have resurfaced. Even against U.S. allies, a 25% tariff on auto imports was floated, leading to concerns that global growth could be compromised down the road.

United States: *The week of May 28 will be a busy, holiday-shortened one in the U.S., with a slew of data releases after the return from the long Memorial Weekend. The focus will be squarely on the April jobs report after recent readings have fallen short of expectations, but in April the gain is expected to be in line with the year-to-date average. Front and center will be Nonfarm payrolls (Friday), expected to rise 195,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000. *The unemployment rate is estimated to be steady at 3.9%. Consumer confidence should be 128.0 in May (Tuesday), down only slightly from a strong 128.7 reading in April and the 17-year high of 130.0 in February. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey seen rising 200k in May from 204k in April. Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April (Wednesday) from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% in April (Thursday), following a similar gain in the prior month, while PCE may rise 0.4%. Initial jobless claims are set to fall 8k to 226k in the week ended May 26, following the prior pop to 234k from 222k in the week of May 12. Chicago PMI is due, in addition to NAR pending home sales seen rising to 108.2 in April from 107.6 and delayed EIA inventory data (due to holiday).

Canada: The BOC’s announcement (Wednesday) is front and center this week. No change to the current 1.25% policy setting is expected alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.” *As for data that will guide the Bank of Canada, this week has real Q1 GDP (Thursday), March GDP also due Thursday, the current account and the industrial product price index on Wednesday, *and the march average weekly earnings *on Thursday.

Europe: The ECB is heading for difficult times as political jitters in Italy, and now Spain, threaten to destabilize markets, just as inflation is expected to finally move higher and vindicate the ECB’s move towards policy normalization. So far, the ECB taken the uptick in Italian yields with apparent calm, but if turbulence increases and deepens pressure on Draghi to try and step in with verbal intervention, volatility will intensify.

At the same time, this week’s round of preliminary may inflation data is expected to show an uptick in headline rates, that will back the ECB’s move towards a phasing out of QE. May numbers should bring us closer to “normal”. German HICP (Wednesday) is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y, the French rate (Wednesday) to 2.0% y/y from 1.8% y/y and the Italian headline rate (Thursday) to 0.9% y/y, which should bring the Eurozone HICP (Thursday) to 1.6% y/y – up from 1.2% y/y in the previous month. The ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) is seen falling back just slightly to 112.5 *from 112.7 in the previous month, signalling a slowdown in growth momentum, but not to an extent that would worry the ECB unduly and partly due to capacity constraints in countries such as Germany. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI readings for May (Friday) expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5. And even if preliminary numbers came in weaker than expected, they still showed that job creation continues and hence the German unemployment rate for May (Wednesday) expected unchanged at a very low 5.3%. The overall Eurozone rate for April meanwhile is seen falling to 8.4% *from 8.5% in the previous month.

UK: The calendar this week brings the May Gfk consumer confidence report (Wednesday), where *a fractional improvement is anticipated to a -8 reading after -9 in the month prior, April lending data from the BoE (Thursday), and the May manufacturing PMI survey (Friday), which it is anticipated to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

Japan: The April unemployment (Tuesday) is expected unchanged at 2.5%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.59. April retail sales (Wednesday) should rise to a 0.5% y/y growth rate from 0.1% for large retailers, and edge up to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% overall. April industrial production (Thursday) is penciled in at a 1.0% y/y rate, slightly slower than the prior 1.4%, while the contraction in April housing starts (Thursday) is expected to have deepened to -8.5% y/y from -8.3%. April construction spending is also due Thursday. Friday brings the Q1 MoF Capex survey, and the May manufacturing PMI. The preliminary reading came in at 52.5, the lowest since August. It was 53.1 last May.

China: The official CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is forecast edging up to 51.5, after having dipped 0.1 point to 51.4 in April. It was at 51.2 a year ago. The index has generally been on a downtrend from 52.4 in September, and the slippage has rung some alarm bells over growth. Also, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) should dip to 51.0 from 51.1, and is down from 51.6 in February (the highest since the same reading in August). It was 49.6 last May.

Australia: The Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to rise 2.0% in April after the 2.6% gain in March. Private capital expenditures (Thursday) are seen expanding 2.0% in Q1 after the 0.2% dip (q/q, sa) in Q4. The next Reserve Bank of Australia event is the policy meeting on June 5, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 29th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields fell below 2.9% for the first time this month before coming back from overnight lows to currently 2.902%, down -2.9 bp on the day. 10-year JGBs are down -0.4 bp at 0.028%. Italy angst triggered risk aversion in holiday thin markets and as the dip in yields weighed on the dollar, the strengthened yen put further pressure on Japanese stock markets. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.75% and -0.97% respectively. Hang Seng and CSI 300 both lost -0.65%, the ASX outperformed and is posting slight gains. Asian stock markets are also mostly down, although the NASDAQ managed to make some headway as U.S. markets prepare to come back from yesterday’s holiday. Overall risk aversion continues to dominate amid political turmoil in Europe and as the end U.S. exemptions on tariffs on steel and aluminium loom on the horizon. At hopes that the U.S. – North Korea summit will take place after all remains alive as a diplomacy seems to heat up. Oil prices remained under pressure as Saudia Arabia and Russia mull higher output to ease concerns over supply shortages. The WTI future is trading at USD 66.72 per barrel, after falling to a low of USD 65.80.

In Europe, the Italian 10-year meanwhile is already up a further 13 bp and at 2.788% set to overtake U.S. yields for the first time since 2014 as the ECB remains quiet on the sidelines and the impact of Draghi’s promise to do “all it takes”, starts to be priced out. Portuguese 10-year yields are also up 13 bp already this morning. In Italy 2-year bonds are selling even faster and the yield is up nearly 50 bp at 1.33%. There are a number of ECB speakers today and with the bond market rout widening pressure on the central bank to step in with some form of verbal intervention is mounting. Stock futures are also selling off and financial market turmoil will overshadow today’s data calendar, which includes Eurozone M3 as well as Italian confidence data.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* EU M3 Money Supply – Expectations – at 3.9% y/y from 3.7% y/y seen in April.

* US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI – Expectations – *S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices expected slightly lower at 6.5% y/y in March *from 6.8% y/y in April.

* US CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – 128.0 in May, down only slightly from a strong 128.7 reading in April and the 17-year high of 130.0 in February.

* RBNZ Financial Stability Report*

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*

​​​​​​​
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 30th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* German Unemployment Change & HICP – Expectations – Unemployment change expected unchanged at 5.3% y/y in May, while German HICP *is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y.

* US ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – *seen rising 188k in May from 204k in April.

* US Goods Trade Balance & *Prelim. GDP – Expectations – Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP, which anticipated to remain at 2.3%, unchanged from the initial release.

* BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change to the current 1.25% policy setting alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”


Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 31st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.850%, while yields rose across Asia as stock markets rallied. 10-year GDP yields are up 0.5 bp at 0.028%, Australia and China underperformed. Like European and U.S. stocks yesterday, equity markets across Asia recovered from the bout of heightened risk aversion as Eurozone breakup risks were being priced out again. China’s official manufacturing PMI unexpectedly improved which saw CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp outperforming with gains of 1.81% and 1.55% respectively. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.81% and the Hang Seng gained 0.91%. There is still plenty of risk with Sino-American trade relations in focus and U.S. tariff exemptions set to run out tomorrow and the Italian crisis is also far from over. So volatility is likely to remain high over the summer, complicating the tasks for global central banks that were heading for more policy normalisation.

FX Action: USDJPY has settled in the mid 108.0s after failing to sustain gains above 109.0 yesterday. Yen crosses are also lower, reflecting a generally firmer yen, albeit moderately so. This is turn reflects a more circumscribed view markets are taking of the situation in Italy, which has returned a bid to the Japanese currency. The Washington Post has also reported, citing three unnamed sources, that President Trump will later today announce tariffs on steel and aluminium on imports from Canada, Mexico and the EU. The month’s end has reportedly generated some demand for the Japanese currency, too. In data, Japan’s April industrial production disappointed at 0.3% m/m growth. The median forecast had been for 1.4% m/m growth, though the data hasn’t had a bearing on forex markets.

Charts of the Day

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 1st June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 4.5 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, 2-year yields gained 3.6 bp and are at -0.643%. The rise in rates at the long end mirrors moves in Treasury and JGB yields, which lifted, the latter after the BoJ cut purchases of some debt at its regular operations. Peripherals are outperforming and the Italian 10-year is down -10.1 bp at 2.644%, after a last minute agreement with President Mattarella cleared the way for a populist coalition government, with Giuseppe Conte set to be sworn in today. Spain’s Rajoy meanwhile seems on the way out with the Socialists preparing to take control after reportedly gaining sufficient votes to win a vote of no confidence against Rajoy today. Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the U.S. on the day Trump’s long announced tariffs finally come into effect. The EU’s countermeasures will start with the May 18 list of duties in U.S. goods ranging from Whiskey to Jeans, hardly the top of EU imports from the U.S. and there is lingering hope that despite the harsh tones from all sides, the high stakes will bring them back to the negotiating table. Data releases today focus on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland.

Trump administration’s announcement that it was proceeding with slapping tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada. The U.S. also hit Mexico and the EU with the same tariff (even though Mexico is a net buyer of U.S. steel and aluminium), and all three rapidly responded with announcements of counter tariffs. This weighed on global stock markets and underpinned safe havens, including the yen. In the mix were a bag of perky U.S. data releases, including weekly initial claims, personal income and the latest Chicago PMI survey, a spike in Eurozone HICP to 1.9% y/y in the preliminary May estimate from 1.2% y/y in April, above-forecast China manufacturing PMI and a miss in Japanese production data for April.

Canada announced plans to challenge the U.S. tariffs via both NAFTA and the WTO, while Macron of France declared them “a mistake and illegal.” Macron said the decision on the metals tariffs “closes the door on other talks,” though he plans to speak with Trump later tonight. The German economic minister said that the tariffs decision was damaging both for Europe and the U.S., but the transatlantic relationship remains extremely important for Germany.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Final Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5.

* UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipate to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

* US NFP *– Expectations – expected to rise 188,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000.

* US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – estimated to tick up to 58.1 from 57.3 in April.


Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 4th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The strength in the U.S. jobs report helped unwind a lot of the recent angst over trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that many investors feared were jeopardizing the global upswing in growth. The acceleration in the U.S. should override tariff worries, and the momentum should help offset the slowing out of Europe, especially as the uncertainties over the political situations in Italy and Spain have been resolved for now. The markets are likely to be consolidative this week as a number of factors impact.

United States: *This week’s calendar is light with few top tier reports, limited Treasury supply, and no Fedspeak given the blackout period ahead of the June 12, 13 FOMC meeting. Earnings have also slowed to a crawl. As for data, the May ISM non-manufacturing numbers (Tuesday) will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. An increase by 0.7 point to 57.5 is expected, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The April JOLTS data (Tuesday) will add some details to the outlook but will be anticlimactic following the employment report. And while it continues to corroborate the strength in the labor market, it also suggests the market may not be as tight as perceived. The April trade report (Wednesday) will be tracked given the tariff uncertainties, and it will also help fine tune the improved Q2 GDP outlook.

Canada: Canadian employment tops a busy week of economic data. The employment report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 20.0k bounce in jobs during May after the 1.1k dip in April, while the unemployment rate holds at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade report (Wednesday) takes second place in the rankings of most-important-release-this-week, with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Q1 productivity (Tuesday) is projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4. Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values. The May Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip to a still firm 70.0 in May from the seasonally adjusted 71.5 in April that was the firmest reading since the 73.2 seen in March of 2011. May housing starts (Friday) are expected to expand at a 215.0k unit pace, little changed from the 214.4k growth rate in April. Q1 capacity utilization (Friday) is seen rising to 86.1% from the 86.0% in Q4 that was strongest since Q2 of 2007’s matching 86.0%.

The Bank of Canada publishes the twice annual Financial Stability Review (Thursday, 10:30 ET) with a press conference to follow at 11:15 ET. In the November Review, the Bank said the high level of household indebtedness and housing market vulnerabilities were the most important vulnerabilities.

Europe: Political uncertainty in Italy and Spain may be resolved for now. But while the markets celebrated the new governments in Spain and Italy on Friday, the changes could spell trouble for the ECB and the stability of the Eurozone down the line if they bring uncontrolled deficit spending. With that in mind, and spreads having come in again, the chances that the ECB will commit to an end date for QE at the June 14 meeting are rising, especially after the jump in May HICP inflation. German orders data this week will be watched carefully, but even if data disappoints, it would further highlight that the central bank’s window of opportunity for the next step toward policy normalization is closing. Wrapping the end of QE in dovish guidance may be the best way to deal with the current uncertainty.

This week’s round of data includes key German reports, including the April manufacturing orders (Thursday) which are expected to show a 0.7% m/m rebound. *German industrial production for April (Friday) and the trade balance (Friday). Final Eurozone Q1 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.The calendar also has final Eurozone May services PMI, Eurozone retail sales and PPI inflation, and a German I/L bond auction Thursday, followed by a 5-year Bobl auction Wednesday. France sells bonds Thursday.

UK: Brexit negotiations will continue this week while the data schedule is fairly quiet, highlighted by the release of the construction and services PMI surveys for May (due Monday and Tuesday, respectively). The construction PMI expected to come in with a headline reading of 52.0, down from 52.5 in April, which would indicate a modest slowing in the pace of expansion. Market participants will be keeping a watch out on the evolving Brexit negotiation, which is in a crucial phase and which remains fluid.

Japan: In Japan, April personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show consumption rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from the previous -0.7%. The second look at Q1 GDP (Friday) is penciled in at -0.4% q/q, modestly improving from the preliminary -0.6% pace. The April current account surplus (Friday) is set to narrow to JPY 2,000.0 bln from 3,122.3 bln.

China’s trade balance (Friday) will get a lot of attention given the trade tensions with the U.S., though we shouldn’t be able to discern any impacts. The balance was at a $28.8 bln surplus in April with gains of 12.7% y/y for exports and 21.5% y/y for imports.

Australia: The RBA’s policy meeting (Tuesday) is expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. In the April meeting, Governor Lowe repeated that the low level of interest rates is supporting the economy. Something similar is expected in the June statement, consistent with a low for long outlook for policy. The data slate is highlighted by Q1 GDP (Wednesday), expected to accelerate to a 0.7% growth rate (q/q, sa) from the 0.4% pace in Q1. Retail sales (Monday) are projected to expand 0.4% (m/m, sa) in April after the flat reading in March. The current account (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to a -A$9.0 bln deficit in Q1 from -A$14.0 bln in Q4. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to a A$1.1 bln surplus in April from A$1.5 bln in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 5th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.937%, 10-year JGBs unchanged at 0.040%. After putting trade concerns aside and focusing on U.S. growth during the Monday session, stock markets struggled in Asia. The RBA left rates on hold as expected and maintained cautious optimism on the global and local growth outlook while suggesting that wage growth may have bottomed out, which saw the ASX underperforming and down -0.35%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.20% and down -0.05% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.22% and the CSI outperformed with a 0.81% gain. A mixed picture, with markets appearing to take a wait and see stance. U.S. stock futures are slightly in the red, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 65.02 per barrel.

FX Action: EURUSD has steadied above the N.Y. low of 1.1677, though continues to find sellers ahead of the 1.1700 mark. The pairing has steadied well above last week’s 11-month low of 1.1508, largely as the worst of the European political meltdown appears to be behind us for now. This said, there may still be some political fissures yet to bubble up, so EURUSD is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* EU Markit Services PMI – Expectations – expected to be confirmed at 53.9, leaving the composite at 54.1, down from the previous month, but still pointing to a solid pace of expansion and at least for the manufacturing sector market reported ongoing job creation amid capacity constraints and an overall optimistic view on the outlook over the next 12 months.

* UK Services PMI- Expectations – a dip is anticipated to 53.0 in the headline reading after 52.8 in April.

* US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI – Expectations – will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. A 0.7 point increase has been forecasted to 57.5, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The slight improvement will leave the service sector tracking the expected performance for the May factory surveys which are showing improvement. These readings remain robust, supported by fiscal stimulus as well as stronger global growth.*

* Canadian Q1 productivity – Expectations – *projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4.

* Speeches: UK MPC Member Cunliffe, German Buba President Weidmann, RBA Assist Gov Bullock

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
********


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 6th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Risk appetite is back and stocks in Asia moved mostly higher in tandem with U.S. futures. Treasury yields picked up and the 10-year yield is at 2.939%, up 1.1 bp. 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.3 bp to 0.043%. Concerns about rising protectionism seem on hold for now, and Nikkei and Topix are up 0.39% and 0.12% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.52%. The CSI 300 meanwhile is down -0.20%, in tandem with Shanghai and Shenzen Comps amid lingering concerns about Sino-American relations. U.S. stock futures meanwhile are broadly higher and oil prices are set for a second day of gains and currently trading at USD 65.89 per barrel.

FX Update: Both the dollar and yen have traded softer against most other currencies. EURUSD has edged out a two-week high at 1.1734. EURJPY also posted a two-week peak, though the euro has traded more mixed (i.e. net neutral) versus other currencies, with euro crosses having flattened out for the most part out after rallying over the last week on the shifting Italian political situation. Concerns remain about how viable a government Italy’s unusual Five Star and League populist parties will make; about whether their anti-establishment, Eurosceptic colours will start to show through in policy. USDJPY has remained buoyant, near yesterday’s two-week high at 110.00, aided by AUDJPY strength following forecast-beating GDP data out of Australia, along with a backdrop of mostly higher stock markets in Asia. Strength in tech stocks helped lift stock markets, while Beijing said today that it would buy $70 worth of U.S. goods if the Trump administration lifts steel and aluminium tariffs. Cable built on gains seen yesterday, lifting into two-week high territory above 1.3400. AUDUSD, buoyed by solid Australian growth data, rallied over 0.5% in making a six-week high at 0.7672.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Swiss CPI – Expectations – expected rising to a 0.3% m/m from 0.2% m/m in April.

* MPC Member Tenreyro & MPC Member McCafferty *Speech

* US Trade Report & *Non-Farm Productivity – Expectations – deficit should be unchanged at -$49.0 bln, and much narrower than a cycle-high -$57.7 bln in February. *Revised Q1 nonfarm productivity is expected to slow to 0.7% versus the initial estimate of 0.7%.

* Canadian Trade Balance & Building Permits – Expectations – the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Building permits *are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values.

* US Crude Oil Inventories

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 7th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session on improving confidence in the world economy and despite the prospect of tensions at the G7 meeting over the future of trade relationships and U.S. sanctions. The fact that central banks remain on course to reduce stimulus seems to be seen as a sign that the recovery remains intact rather than a threat to equities, at least for now. 10-year Treasury yields are little changed at 2.968%, down -0.4 bp, 10-year JGBs gained 0.4 bp and are at 0.043% amid a broad move higher in yields across Asia. Nikkei and Topix gained 0.93% and 0.66% respectively. The Hang Seng is up 0.48%, the ASX 0.55%. Mainland China bourses meanwhile erased early gains and are in the red. with concerns about Sino-American trade relations continuing to weigh. U.S. futures are higher though – confirming that the overall mood in equity markets is improving. Oil prices have moved up from lows below USD 65 per barrel and are trading at USD 65.10.

German orders slumped -2.5% m/m in April, with the March reading revised down to -1.1% from -0.9%. The second months of contraction left the annual rate at -0.1%, down from 2.9% y/y in March and the first negative reading since July 2016. Expectations had been for a rebound from the dip in the previous month and while there may be some special factors still at play related to holiday’s and bridging days, the numbers are a worry and will add to concerns that the German recovery is slowing down much faster than feared. The breakdown showed domestic orders in particular weighing down the index, with a drop of -4.8% m/m. Again this may be due to special factors, but the fact that export orders rose for a second months and that Eurozone orders slumped -9.9% m/m, after already falling -2.9% m/m in March cast a shadow over the outlook. This won’t prevent the ECB from phasing out QE by the end of the month, but it highlights that the window of opportunity for the change in direction at the ECB is closing faster than previously thought.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* Eurozone GDP – Expectations – to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q , but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.

* US Jobless Claims – Expectations – are set to fall 11k to 223k in the week ended May 26, following the prior pop to 234k from 222k in the week of May 12.

* BOC Gov Poloz and MPC Member Ramsden Speeches

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 8th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Risk aversion is back and Asian stock markets headed south. After a sell off in the tech-heavy Nasdaq Thursday, technology stocks were also under pressure during the Asian session. Treasury yields meanwhile recovered some of the losses seen in the wake of the weakness in U.S. stocks yesterday, but after reaching a high of 2.479% have started to fall back to now 2.928%, still up 0.7 bp on the day. Asian yields are broadly lower, with 10-year JGBs down -0.2 bp at 0.037%. Stock indices meanwhile are a sea of red, with the Nikkei down -0.35%, the Hang Seng and CSI 300 down -1.35% and -1.37% after narrower than expected trade surplus out of China. China added to the risk off environment and the focus turns to the G7 meeting, which is likely to bring clashes over sanctions and trade. U.S. futures are down and the WTI crude oil is trading at USD 65.75 per barrel.

German trade surplus narrows as exports decline. Germany reported a sa trade surplus of EUR 18.4 bln for April, down from EUR 21.6 bln in the previous month. Meanwhile, German industrial production contracted -1.0% m/m. Expectations had been for a slight rise over the month, but after the unexpected slump in orders yesterday, the weak production number is not a total surprise. At the same time, March data were revised up to 1.7% m/m from 1.0% m/m reported initially, so the trajectory is not as weak as the headline suggests. Annual growth slowed to a still healthy 2.0%, but nevertheless the weakness in orders and surveys showing a markedly less optimistic view on the outlook confirm that the German cycle has peaked and that growth is slowing down. Capacity constraints are partly to blame, but worries about the export outlook amid an increasingly hostile trade environment are clearly also having an impact.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* G7 Meeting

* Canadian Housing Starts – Expectations – to hold nearly steady at a 215.0k pace in May from 214.4k in April. Starts have been resilient, holding in a 215k to 230k range since December while existing home sales and prices tumbled beginning in January as new regulations took effect. The resilience in starts growth is consistent with firm underlying momentum in Canada’s housing market.

* Canadian Employment Data – Expectations – to rise 20.0k in May after the 1.1k dip in April. A gain in May would resume the gains seen in February (+15.4k) and Mach (+32.3k) that followed the 88.0k tumble in January.

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 11th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th June 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

The G-6 (+1) held testy meetings on trade in La Malbaie, Quebec, over the weekend in an “extraordinary” session on trade amid attempts to accelerate negotiations on NAFTA and embark on a new dialogue between the U.S. and EU, after Trump leveled a pointed critique of the present “unfair” trading system. The potentially ill-fated “communique” spoke to deep divisions, though Trump was fairly upbeat on shared G-7 “values and beliefs” in his early exit speech, while sticking to his guns on trade reciprocity. Once past the dysfunctional G-7 family reunion in Canada, attention will now quickly revert to a weighty week in terms of geopolitics and monetary policy. Thus, the markets will have to face a lot of major uncertainties with respect to the outcomes of the Trump-Kim Summit on Tuesday, and the FOMC, ECB, and BoJ results on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively.

United States: *The U.S. economic calendar for the week of June 11 will be a busy one, with the FOMC meeting on tap and readings on inflation and consumption on the calendar. Economic data will include CPI and PPI, and both are estimated to firm further above the Fed’s 2% target. Retail sales are expected to post a solid gain. Import prices should rise mostly owing to gains in oil prices. The Empire State index may moderate to a still-strong June reading, while industrial production should post a modest May gain, held back by manufacturing. June Michigan sentiment is projected to edge up from the May reading, and business inventories should rise in April.

A couple other Fed events are sprinkled in the calendar this week as well, though completely overshadowed by the FOMC meeting and surrounding blackout period. The Senate Banking Committee will vote (Tuesday) on the nominations of Richard Clarida for vice chairman and Michelle Bowman for Fed governor. The Fed board will also hold an open meeting (Thursday) on the final rule to establish single-counterparty credit limits for large financial firms. And Dallas Fed hawk Kaplan addresses business leaders (Friday) in Fort Worth, Texas.

FOMC: is one among several key events ahead that could rattle the markets, alongside ongoing trade uncertainties. With a 25 bp tightening by the FOMC a near Fait accompli, attention will be on the SEP and forward guidance, including the dots, as well as any tweaks to the IOER. The Fed is expected to maintain the median dot projection of three rate hikes this year, though there’s speculation of a bump up to four. The 2019 outlook expected to be left unchanged at three tightenings as well, underscoring the “gradualist” mantra. The FOMC may increase the IOER by 20 bps (versus 25 bps), as postulated in the FOMC minutes. As such, the dots and the smaller IOER move could be taken slightly dovishly by the bond market that is positioned for a more hawkish stance here, and from the ECB, which could shroud its QE moves in dovish language. Note, there is also a Powell press conference, but no major new insights to be forthcoming are expected. Out of the three central bank meetings next week, the BoJ’s could be the most uneventful.

Canada: May existing home sales (expected Friday) and the April manufacturing survey (Friday) are the lone highlights. Housing price reports at mid-week also feature. Manufacturing shipment values are expected to climb 1.0% in April after the 1.4% gain in March. Existing home sales are seen up 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 2.9% decline in April. The new housing price index (Thursday) is projected to fall 0.1% in April (m/m, sa) after the flat reading in March. The Teranet/National housing price index for May is due on Wednesday. There is nothing scheduled from the Bank of Canada this week, but there is scope from comments from policy makers on the sidelines of the G-7.

Europe: The ECB meeting on Thursday will be squarely in focus this week after officials indicated that this will be a “live” meeting and pretty much confirmed that the central bank is finally ready to commit to an end date for QE. Rather than delaying the announcement of the widely expected “phasing out” of the remaining EUR 30 bln of net asset purchases, recent market jitters and data misses seem to have sparked a sense of urgency at the ECB. A possible confirmation of the sequencing of rate moves and exit steps aside, Draghi expected to remain non-committal on rates, however, and wrap the announcement on the end of QE in dovish language to maintain balance and prevent the EUR from running away higher with rate expectations.

The ECB meeting will overshadow the data calendar, which will focus on final inflation readings for May and the June ZEW investor confidence reading out of Germany. Inflation numbers are unlikely to hold any surprises. May numbers confirmed that special factors contributed to be weaker than anticipated readings over the previous month and with improvements on labor markets adding to gradually rising wages, inflation is clearly on the way higher. At the same time growth indicators have been weaker than expected. Confidence data in particular remains impacted by recent market volatility and concerns about the outlook for world trade and Eurozone growth amid wider Geo-political tensions and growing EMU-fatigue at home. Against that background, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Tuesday) is seen falling back to -11.0 from -8.2, with the number of those pessimistic about the outlook rising steadily. Real economic data also continues to disappoint and after weak national Eurozone production (Wednesday) and trade numbers (Friday) are unlikely to show anything but ongoing weakness at the start of the second quarter.

UK: Incoming data and BoE-speak have kept alive prospects for a 25 bp hike in the repo rate as soon as the August MPC meeting, when the central bank next publishes its quarterly Inflation Report. May PMI surveys showed headline strength, and while key components, such as new business, pointed to an abatement in activity, with Brexit-related uncertainty getting a specific mention from respondents. Wages have been rising in the context of a tight labour market as well — something that won’t have gone unnoticed by the BoE — which has signalled that diminishing slack in the economy and low productivity growth have generated a need for gradual tightening.

The calendar this week is packed, highlighted by (in chronological order), April industrial production and trade data (Monday), monthly labour data covering the April-May period (Tuesday), May inflation numbers (Wednesday), and May retail sales (Thursday).

Japan: The June MoF business outlook survey (Tuesday) is seen at 4.0 from 3.3 previously. May PPI (Tuesday) should warm to 2.1% y/y from 2.0%. The April tertiary industry index (Tuesday) is pencilled in at up 0.5% from -0.3% in March. Revised April industrial production is due Thursday. The BoJ’s two day meeting, beginning Thursday, is expected to result in no change to the Bank’s huge stimulus program, as economic data since the meeting in April has been mostly disappointing. A news report circulated last week that the Bank may consider reducing the forecasts for inflation in fiscal 2018 and further out, as slow CPI growth in April was an unexpected development for the BoJ. A lengthening in the time frame needed to reach the BoJ’s target would indeed be a relatively dovish development, moving the time frame for rate hikes even further down the road.

China: May fixed investment (Thursday) is forecast at up 7.1% y.y from 7.0%. May industrial production is seen slowing to a 6.5% y/y pave from 7.0%, while May retail sales are pencilled in at up 9.5% y/y from 9.4%.

Australia: The employment report (Thursday) is the focus, with the data calendar otherwise fairly thin. Employment is expected to climb 20.0k in May after the 22.6k gain in April. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 5.6%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to rebound 1.0% in April after the 2.2% drop in March. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Assistant Governor Ellis delivers a speech (Friday), while Governor Lowe speaks on “Productivity, Wages and Prosperity” (Wednesday). Markets are closed on Monday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 12th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Core yields moved higher and stock markets were underpinned as Trump tweeted enthusiastically about the summit with North Korea’s leader. The G7 turbulence was quickly shrugged off yesterday as the focus turned to the Trump/Kim meeting, which will be followed by three key central bank meetings this week. 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.6 bp at 2.957%, 10-year JGB yields rose 0.5 bp to 0.042%, Stock markets moved mostly higher across Asia with Topix and Nikkei up 0.40% and 0.44% respectively with a weaker yen adding support. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.48% and 0.39% so far, the ASX rose 0.15%. with a stronger currency weighing. US futures are also in the green, oil prices are up and the WTI is trading at USD 66.24 per barrel.

FX Action: The dollar traded moderately firmer heading into the London interbank open, led by a 0.3% gain in USDJPY, which logged a three-week high just shy of 110.50. Yen crosses also firmed up, reflecting broader softness in the yen as safe haven premiums unwound amid a cautious sense of optimism in global markets about the Trump-Kim summit, which has just ended. The summit produced a joint signing of an “important document,” though details about its content have not, so far, been made available. The summit produced images of cordiality and rhetoric (and tweets) of optimism — rhetoric emphasizing historical turning points and of new relationships and prospects for peace etc. Whether Kim actually it turns out that committed to team Trump’s demands for full and verifiable commitment to denuclearization remains to be seen, but, if he didn’t, whatever baby-step towards this grand goal Kim has offered looks to have been satisfactory to Trump. Assuming things remain upbeat, and global stock market direction remains tilted upwards, the yen would likely remain on a softening path, and USDJPY on a firming path. Among other pairings, EURUSD dipped to a two-session low of 1.1742 in the wake of the Tokyo fix before settling around 1.1770. Cable, which took a hit yesterday from big misses in UK production and trade data, posted a one-week low of 1.3341.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Average Earnings – Expectations –ex-bonus average income to rise by 2.9% y/y in the three months to April, which would be unchanged from the March figure and affirm continued above-inflation pay growth.

* UK Unemployment Data – Expectations – at the 4.2% multi-decade low.

* German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – falling back to -14.0 from -8.2, with the number of those pessimistic about the outlook rising steadily.

* US CPI and Core – Expectations – CPI is expected to rise 0.2% for May, following a similar gain in April. Core prices are estimated to rise 0.2% as well after a tepid 0.1% April reading.


Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[divyanshisharma]

Well ! this thread is very useful for me as i watch the posts closely before any investment in market.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 13th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Stock markets are mostly in the red as a lacklustre session in Asia draws to a close. Investors left G7 and North Korea summits behind and focused on major central bank decisions this week. Haven assets including the yen weakened amid hopes of diminishing geopolitical risks and a weaker yen helped Nikkei and Topix to outperform and post gains of 0.44% and 0.53% respectively. U.S. Treasury yields moved up from early lows and are now up 0.7 bp at 2.970%, while 10-year JGB yields corrected early gains and are down -0.2 bp at 0.041%. The Fed kicks off the round of CB decisions with a 25 bp rate hike pretty much a done deal, leaving the focus on the rate outlook and similar to the ECB meeting tomorrow, there could actually be good news for markets if the guidance is less hawkish than feared. U.S. stock futures at least are moving higher for now.

FX Update: Most currencies have been directionally dormant so far today, though USDJPY managed to claw out a fresh three-week high at 110.68. Yen crosses also remained underpinned, though most, such as EURJPY and AUDJPY, for instance, remained below recent highs. Global stock markets have lost upside traction, with risk appetite turning somewhat neutral as market participants anticipate “live” Fed and ECB meetings this week, with the former set, later today, to hike the Fed funds rate by 25 bp and the latter to announce, tomorrow, an end of QE. Attention will be on the respective guidance the central banks give. The Japanese currency has been under-performing as it loses some of its safe haven premium following all the bonhomie, feel-good glow of the Trump-Kim summit.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK CPI and Core CPI – Expectations – to dip to a new cycle low of 2.4% y/y from 2.5% y/y in the month prior, and see core CPI to also remain unchanged, at 2.1% y/y.

* US PPI – Expectations – a 0.2% increase in headline PPI. The gain should be reflect a 0.3% increase in services prices and a more benign 0.1% rise in goods prices (related to a 0.8% increase in PPI gasoline).

* US Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – crude supplies expected to decline by 1.4M barrels.

* FOMC Statement & Press Conference – Expectations – A 25 bp rate hike, a second for this year, is a fait accompli. So, what will be market moving will be the quarterly forecasts (SEP), including the dot-plot, a potential tweak in IOER, and any surprises from Powell. The key risk for the markets is with the dot plot, and whether the median dot remains at three tightenings this year, or is bumped up to four. With the markets concerned over an aggressive FOMC, maintaining the dots at three would be bond friendly.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date : 14th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th June 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.1 bp at 0.477% in opening trade. Bond markets pretty quickly shrugged off the hawkish Fed during the Asian session as the PBOC failed to follow up and as stock markets headed south. The PBOC didn’t follow the Fed and tighten policy as had been speculated, but Trump said he will confront China “very strongly” over trade in coming weeks and a number of key data of of China, including retail sales and industrial output missed estimates, which added to concerns over a softening economy. Bond markets benefited from the sell off in stocks and the fact that the PBOC refrained from tightening and even Treasury yields fell back from earlier highs. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.8 bp and at 2.948%, below the levels seen ahead of the Fed announcement. 10-year JGBs are down -0.6 bp. German final inflation data held no surprise and was confirmed at 2.2% y/y and the data calendar also has final French inflation readings as well as U.K. retail sales, but the focus is on the ECB, which is finally expected to confirm the end of QE, leaving the focus on the forward guidance.

FX Update: The dollar has more than given back gains seen in the immediate wake of the Fed’s rate hike and hawkish-tilting guidance. EURUSD recouped back above 1.1800 after dipping to a 1.1725 low, post Fed. The euro has been trading generally firmer over the last day, gaining against the pound, Swiss franc, among other currencies, with market narratives focusing on the successful Italian auction of 30-year bonds yesterday, with the appetite for the long-dated debt seen as a good litmus test of investor sentiment on the new Italian government. Market participants are also anticipating the ECB to announce an end of QE policy today. Elsewhere, USDJPY printed a three-day low of 110.04. The biggest movement out of the main currencies has been AUDJPY and is showing a loss of over 0.5%. The Aussie dollar has been under pressure following a sub-forecast Australian employment report. Ahead today, the ECB is expecting to announce the end of QE, while U.S. President Trump will reportedly decide whether to proceed with tariffs on Chinese goods later on Thursday — and his unabashed form this week suggests he won’t hold back.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

* UK Retail Sales – Expectations – to rise 0.5% m/m in May, which would affirm a continued recovery from sharp weather-affected weakness in March, although at a decelerated pace from the 1.6% m/m growth seen in April.

* SNB press conference

* ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference – Expectations – Comments from ECB officials suggest that the ECB is finally ready to formally announce the end of net asset purchases. The main question in recent months has been the actual timing of the announcement, not the policy change. So the announcement of a short taper through Q4 would not really come as a surprise, leaving intense focus on the forward guidance. Mr. Draghi expected to initially wrap the announcement in rather dovish language to keep markets from running away with rate hike speculation at a time when geopolitical risks are still hanging over markets.

* US Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims *– Expectations – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4% in May, following a 0.2% increase in April and a 0.7% gain in March. Initial jobless claims are estimated to be slightly changed at 224k for the week ended June 9.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.*


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
Hot-Forex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.