Holy Grail - new info re results!A must read

[ChartMan]

Hi.Tonights picks are COL and SYE.
Whilst playing around with a few things, I realised that all my backtesting was subject to the "fast sell" algorithm.This should be used for your stop loss selections.For your maximum profit, you should run the test without the "sell after" option selected.This will allow your winners to run, but will get you out with the standard "protect 80% of profit above 5%" etc.This shows much better upside profit figures as the new chart below shows.RFT profit up from 27% to 41%;AVT profit up from 1.47% to 49%;TCH from a 6% loss to 27% profit and so on.So the picture is a lot more like the Grail performance of old......Remember, run with the "sell after" setting to check if a stock is in risk of a tumble, or is just having a minor correction/pullback!
As a comparison to 6 months ago, the typical "stock held days" seems to be longer at 19 days.The reward to risk ratio is excellent at 9.98, probability 68% and an AROI 450%.I LIKE these figures, but I wonder what happened to PHB @ -21% loss......
There is a clue in the recent history- back in october, it appeared overbought on stochastics @90 and sold off. On the 10th Jan, stochastics peaked @ 90, an indicated a sell.VP trend (Volume /price) also tanked pre drop as it did twice before.Was there bad news to go with this?

So here's the improved results:

 

[sefty]

excellent work martin

Well done martin all that hard work looks like it is paying off.

 

[delboy trotter]

Well done Martin. This is beginning to look very interesting indeed. Once again for the non AIQ members could you summarise the HG method. By that I mean a list of rules (including your latest amendment), from point of entry of the stocks that you are posting on the BB for us, to the exit from those stocks. I'm sure this will be very valuable to the less technically gifted among us (like myself)

Many thanks for your efforts on this project.

 

[ChartMan]

Delboy, nothing has changed in the EDS selection/sell routine, only the way the results are calculated.A full description can be found in the archives by searching for "Grail".As with anything mechanical, you really must look very closely at any selections, and cross-correlate that with news/history/sector/sentiment to make a value judgement.Only then should you consider taking a position.

 

[Skimbleshanks]

Just an observation ...

I get a far better result with Chartman's Holy Grail by using the Trade it Exit, with the following settings:

trailing stop 80%
Protect 80% of my capital
Protect 90% of my profit above 5%.

 

[paulperryman]

Grail Picks.

Excellent work Martin...let's hope the method can keep up this level of performance. I am finding that if one additionally asks for ascending 14-day slow stochastics from below the half way line and ditto 14-day RSI/Money-flow together with OBV upwards from below the half way line, I keep the biggest" plums" and eschew the remainder by ensuring that I avoid short-term overbought situations ; I cut these down to RTG, PHTM CIU, & SYE. Ihave checked out SYE because I liked the chart so much, but, on checking out the company balance sheet, found little encouragement; but it would not be an uncommon occurrence for the chart to be right and the fundamentals "wrong" from the point of view of short-term trading which we are after. I feel that these- particularly with spreads of 10% or less- would be suited to spread-betting ,as the time required to hold is often just a little longer than the average T-trade, but it would depend on whether the spread-bet firm would cover these stocks. Once again MANY thanks. Paul Perryman.

 

[ChartMan]

Paul- seeing as you are into "fundamentals", perhaps you would like to add a rider to any Grail picks, regarding fundamentals- I'm sure this would be a far more powerful analysis then, and so weed out the weak ones.....

 

[paulperryman]

I'm more into charting than "fundis" but am aware of the benefits of combining both and will try to help in this way where I feel I have a good lead on the stock. Paul Perryman. All the best for now.