"High Probability Setups"

[Hotch]

Can somebody explain this BS? Is this the new buzz word? I swear I read somewhere that it's a high probability setup, the next paragraph stated that it's profitable 40% of the time.

Does it actually mean anything at all? Or is it just more BS?

 

[Pazienza]

BS really. I guess I understand what people mean, but any individual set up could go for you or against you. That's it really.

 

[wackypete2]

Just more buzz words for the scammer sites to exploit.

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

I have plenty of high probability setups. There's a high probability they won't work.

Peter

 

[Hotch]

BS really. I guess I understand what people mean

Well, I guessed that it meant high probability of profit, but I swear the last few I've come across they actually mean "profitable...maybe".

 

[Pazienza]

Pete's right, it's a new buzz phrase really. It will doubtless be replaced with something else soon.

 

[bbmac]

My understanding is that they refer to a set-up that over a given extensive sample has proven to have a high probability of a successful outcome. This of course does not mean that this greater/high probability will play out in the future, just that it did in the past...and therefore projecting into the future it becomes a high probability set-up.

G/L

 

[BeginnerJoe]

Yes, it's a set up.

 

[wackypete2]

Yes, it's a set up.

Joe made a funny!

Peter

 

[intradaybill]

If every time you wife catches you writing an sms to some other woman you get a kick on the head, then writing an sms to another woman when your wife is around is a high probability setup for getting a kick on your head.

I hope the meaning became clear.

 

[Hotch]

If every time you wife catches you writing an sms to some other woman you get a kick on the head, then writing an sms to another woman when your wife is around is a high probability setup for getting a kick on your head.

I hope the meaning became clear.

What if your wife is highly unobservant and so only notices once for every 7 hour syou spend sms ing some other woman in her presence? I wouldn't of thought that would be high probability. HighER than smsing the bint when not in the other bints presense, but not high.

 

[Doomberg]

Of course their are high probability set ups, but its knowing which ones to take... you could give a 'set up template' to one person and they would lose money, and someone else who may have a better eye could do well from the same set up

 

[QuestOptions]

probability only really means something if you intend to do something a number of times. In trading, time only happens once. With that said magnitude is more important than probability.

In trading the only thing that matters is your outcome. You may never get the chance to try a number of times in order for the probabilities to work in your favor. (Magnitude /Consequences should be measured with probabilities).

For example the chances of winning the lottery are very low. But if you win who cares if the chances of winning the lottery again are almost impossible.

In basketball they have free throw percentage. In reality the player has two outcomes, miss the shot or make the shot. So what does 60% free percentage mean?

If it's during the season it is helpful cause the player is going to take free throws throughout the season.

But if its at the end of an important game and making the free throws is the difference between winning the game and losing (magnitude) then probability means nothing. The only thing that matters is the outcome.

 

[redart]

Dunno.....Certainly not a 'new' buzz-word though. One of the first things I heard being thrown around all the time when I first got interested in daytrading about 6 years ago!

 

[Hotch]

probability only really means something if you intend to do something a number of times. In trading, time only happens once. With that said magnitude is more important than probability.

In trading the only thing that matters is your outcome. You may never get the chance to try a number of times in order for the probabilities to work in your favor. (Magnitude /Consequences should be measured with probabilities).

For example the chances of winning the lottery are very low. But if you win who cares if the chances of winning the lottery again are almost impossible.

In basketball they have free throw percentage. In reality the player has two outcomes, miss the shot or make the shot. So what does 60% free percentage mean?

If it's during the season it is helpful cause the player is going to take free throws throughout the season.

But if its at the end of an important game and making the free throws is the difference between winning the game and losing (magnitude) then probability means nothing. The only thing that matters is the outcome.

I think you've missed the point there. My issue was that these things need context. The chances of winning the lottery are high compared to the chances of the sun not coming up tomorrow.

 

[QuestOptions]

I think you've missed the point there. My issue was that these things need context. The chances of winning the lottery are high compared to the chances of the sun not coming up tomorrow.

my point is probability means nothing if you don't measure what the consequences are.

Example: a college student makes it to class everyday on time. So based on his past performance the chances of him making it to class on time are very high.

What if the student oversleeps one day, and it happens to be the day they have the final exam. They oversleep, miss the final and fail the class. Who cares if the probability was high that they would make it to the exam. The outcome is the only thing that matters.

A man can be loyal to his wife for years, if he cheats on her and gets caught you are not going to say he is loyal to her 98 percent of the time. That one time could be enough to end the relationship.

I agree with you that you need context because you don't want to be doing things blind...my only point is..if I even have one is that you have to also take into account the magnitude along with the probability.

 

[Bohica]

I think that there are setups that are more profitable than others simply based on risk reward. The issue with setups is that they will never work 100% of time mainly because of the news. However, setups do work and I use several in my everday trading. One example is below, the ascending triangle.

 

[ledgy]

Perhaps it's a high probablity you'll hand over some hard earned cash for someone to teach you?

 

[wackypete2]

cool set up..

You just joined today and you made 10 1-line posts in 10 different threads in 20 minutes about how you liked each thread. That's some serious fast reading.

So, what are you selling?

Peter

 

[LittleKnown]

So, what are you selling?

Their stankin ass It's a high probability anyway just to stay on topic!