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[HFM.]

Date: 17th August 2026.

Weak Dollar Triggers New Trends, But What Risks Remain?

The US Dollar declines for a second consecutive day reaching a key support level for the currency. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause for the upcoming months are driving the Dollar lower. At the same time, Gold and the stock market continue to gain bullish momentum and reach previous highs.

However, economists are paying close attention to bond yields, which continue to remain at a significant high and oil still trades above $80 per barrel. Over the weekend, Israel has attacked Iran’s proxy in Lebanon and Trump will soon announce the “economic plan” for Iran.

While oil prices remain above $80 and US bond yields remain high, the risk of a quick sudden decline is still elevated.

Historic Oil Disruptions

US Dollar Weakens To Key Levels​

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day despite higher oil prices and higher bond yields. The decline is driven by investors pricing in no rate hike in September or October. A prolonged pause has become likely for the upcoming 2 months due to a slightly weaker consumer inflation and considerably lower producer inflation.

However, investors should keep in mind that the Dollar index is trading at a key support level at 99.25. This level was tested on July 31st and August 7th. However, the price is not forming a descending triangle pattern but rather a range bound condition. This means that buyers continue to hold strength at times. On the other hand, as the asset continues to retest the support level, the level may weaken and prompt a breakout.

Even though the Dollar is trading clearly lower, investors should be cautious of high oil prices and bond yields which normally push the price higher.

The best performing currencies of the day so far are the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc.

NASDAQ Rises But Risk Remain​

The NASDAQ moved higher, but not at the same pace as the decline seen in July. A neutral Federal Reserve is driving the bullish impulse wave. However, the fact that the Dollar is declining but yields are rising indicates key concerns for stocks. Investors fear the huge government borrowing, that inflation will remain high for years and that hikes will return later in the year.

Analysts advise that the AI trend will remain bumpy and that traders should be cautious of the above triggering a sudden decline. The key resistance level stands at $30,750, but NVIDIA’s earnings towards the end of the month will also influence the long-term price movement.

This week, the main earnings report release will come from Walmart which is the 12th most influential stock for the NASDAQ. Walmart stocks rose 3.90% over the past week.

Gold Turns Bullish In The Short-term​

The key factors for Gold are inflation and the Middle East. The US plans to hit Iran's economy hard, with President Donald Trump saying he doesn't care whether the conflict ends before the November US midterm elections. Scott Bessent also advises the move will hit Iran hard and will be the harshest ever seen. If the move keeps oil prices higher for longer, Gold may come under pressure again.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

The 30-minute and 1-hour signals are currently both “Strong Buy” according to moving averages. Gold also broke above the previous $4,380 resistance, while remaining above its short-term EMA structure. If the price rises above $4,406.00, which is the level where the current impulse wave surpasses 65% of the previous retracement, bullish signals will strengthen.

For bullish signals to be valid, traders will also be monitoring whether the Dollar remains closer to 99.00. Bond yields will also need to avoid rebounding during the day.

Key Takeaways:​

• The US Dollar falls for a second day as markets increasingly price in a Fed pause. The US Dollar Index is testing key support near 99.25.
• Gold and the NASDAQ remain bullish in the short-term, supported by a weaker Dollar and reduced expectations for rate hikes.
• High US bond yields and oil prices above $80 remain major risks and could trigger sudden reversals across markets.
• Middle East tensions and Trump’s upcoming economic measures against Iran could keep oil and inflation risks elevated.
• NVIDIA and Walmart earnings remain a key catalyst for the NASDAQ.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 18th August 2026.

Bond Market Fears Intensify as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold.

As President Trump refuses to prolong the US-Iran extension, markets turn their attention to bond yields and oil prices. Prospects for peace in the Middle East remain limited, with the White House appearing to pause temporarily to replenish resources before potentially escalating tensions again.

Economists and analysts are anxious about the level of debt-to-GDP which looks to continue to grow. Country debt levels are on the rise globally as countries are spending considerably more on defence. At the same time higher inflation is eating into consumer spending. As a result, bond sales are slumping and yields are rising considerably.

Bond Yields Trigger Risk-Off Sentiment​

Sovereign borrowing costs are rising sharply across major markets, with 30-year US Treasury yields, French government borrowing costs and German yields all climbing to elevated levels. Analysts and fund managers are increasing their exposure to short-term borrowing in order to avoid high interest rates.

The increase reflects broader global pressures, including geopolitical fragmentation, concerns over government spending and long-term shifts in market structure and demographics.

Higher bond yields are creating a risk-off sentiment due to investors fearing a debt-crisis and even an economic downturn. All global indices are trading lower while the VIX, Dollar and Oil prices rebound.

This will be a key issue for the US government and its fiscal policy. Some US firms are increasingly tapping overseas bond markets, with one example being Alphabet Inc.’s decision to market its debut Australian dollar debt issue of $3.6 billion.

Crude Oil Rises As The US Do Not Renew Its Current Ceasefire With Iran​

Positive dynamics are supported by a decrease in the probability of a peace agreement between the US and Iran soon. The deal announced earlier in the month by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent never took place and instead, the parties demanded reparation payments from each other and intensified attacks on civilian tankers. As a result, a long blockade and an expansion of the energy crisis are expected.

President Trump has told his administration not to renew the ceasefire with Iran and has also warned Oman. As a result, oil prices are trading higher over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the president said that the US still held leverage over Iran, pointing to the naval blockade of Iranian ports. He also repeated his proposal to declare the waterway US territory, arguing that Washington maintained full control over it.

This morning, Crude Oil prices rose above $85 for the first time in August. If oil prices remain elevated, inflation is likely to become sticky and increase the possibility of an interest rate hike in October. As a result, the US Dollar may continue to rebound and stocks to decline.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

NASDAQ Falls Over Key Economic and Fiscal Concerns​

The NASDAQ is declining this morning and looks likely to form a third day of consecutive falls. The NASDAQ is coming under pressure from bond yields and oil prices which are triggering a lower market risk appetite. The VIX Index this morning is trading 1.50% higher and the Put to Call ratio is again on the rise. This is currently verifying the risk-off sentiment.

Investors fear that the cost of debt and higher debt-to-GDP adds an additional level of risk to the stock market. In addition to this, higher oil prices and lower employment data globally also points to risks from both the monetary policy and consumer demand.

If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel and bond yields do not subside, the NASDAQ remains at risk of further downside. Two key support levels can be seen at $29,139 and $29,435.

HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

In the short-term, the NASDAQ is trading below key Moving Averages and is forming lower lows and highs. This supports the bearish bias but the price has slightly retraced higher. For this reason, investors will be looking for the price to again decline below $29,750 in order to witness stronger sell indications from the price action and indicators.

If the NASDAQ is to rebound upwards, the resistance levels can be seen at $29,852 and $30,207.

Key Takeaways:​

• US-Iran tensions remain elevated, with the US not extending the ceasefire and prospects for a near-term peace agreement appearing limited.
• Global bond yields are rising sharply as investors worry about growing government debt, higher defence spending, inflation and the risk of an economic slowdown.
• Crude oil has climbed above $85, raising concerns that inflation could remain persistent and increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.
• The NASDAQ remains under pressure as higher oil prices, rising bond yields and weaker risk appetite weigh on equities, keeping the short-term outlook bearish.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 19th August 2026.

Why Gold, Stocks and the Dollar are Declining at the Same Time.

US bond yields slightly fell during the US session to the relief of most investors. However, the stock market, Gold and the US Dollar continue to decline despite the cooling yields. Gold, the US Dollar and even the equities market are normally correlated and do not usually simultaneously move lower.

However, what we are witnessing is not a typical “risk-off” move. Instead, it reflects a combination of weaker US growth expectations, a bond-market selloff, and renewed inflation concerns. This is causing the US Dollar, Gold, and stocks to decline simultaneously. Behind this scenario are higher oil prices and weaker employment data, which are raising concerns that the Federal Reserve may find it increasingly difficult to bring inflation under control without putting further pressure on the economy.

For this reason, investors will continue to pay close attention to the bond yields, oil prices and also the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium. The Jackson Hole event will take place towards the end of next week.

HFM - Lack of Traditional Correlation On Tuesday 18th

Gold to Rebound as Yields Retrace and Dollar Continues to Fall?​

High bond yields do not instantly mean that Gold will decline, but if yields continue to rise in the longer-term, Gold can come under immense pressure. A good example of this was in 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Bond yields rose sharply and Gold saw a quick change in trend where it fell by 15% at times.

Bond yields are retracing lower due to the US pausing tariffs on Canada, a key trade partner for the US. The White House halted the duties after Canada committed to removing discriminatory measures affecting US autos, dairy, and alcohol. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said the two sides have made substantial progress, although important work remains. Neither side disclosed whether earlier sticking points would be resolved.

The US Dollar Index on Tuesday moved sideways and this morning is declining by more than 0.20%. Currently, the US Dollar is the worst performing currency of the day along with the Australian Dollar. However, Gold prices are yet to witness sustained bullish momentum in response. If the US Dollar continues to decline, bullish price movement for Gold will become more likely particularly if crude oil prices fall lower. Currently, crude oil is trading 0.50% higher.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

Gold on the 5-Minute timeframe is still trading below the 200-bar simple moving average and is currently trading at the VWAP. For this reason, the price remains neutral, but this indication may turn bullish if the price rises above $4,352.35. This is a key price for bullish price action on smaller timeframes. However, if the price falls below $4,339.00 and the US Dollar rebounds, buy signals would fully fade.

S&P 500 - Meta Stocks Struggle as Various States Dispute the Company’s Ethics and Intentions​

The selloff seen overnight for the US equities measured 0.71%, a moderate decline, but not a unique fall to indicate a larger longer-term selloff. However, an interesting element to the decline was that the fall took place with virtually minimal retracements and attempts to rise.

The decline is largely related to high bond yields, worries over inflation and also the tech sector. The largest declines are largely from technology companies such as Meta, Micron Technologies and NVIDIA.

Meta stocks saw a decline of 4.45% due to its largest legal trial starting in the US. In the opening statements on Tuesday, attorneys general from four states alleged Meta engineered Facebook and Instagram to be addictive and damaging to young adults while misrepresenting their safety. This is part of a broader case brought by 29 states. Analysts advise Meta is likely to continue witnessing mounting legal cases globally. In addition to this, bans on platforms for under 16s are also likely to be introduced by more countries.

A positive factor for the stock market this morning is the decline in bond yields. However, bond yields, oil prices and the US Dollar will continue to impact the S&P 500.

In terms of the market’s risk appetite, the VIX is currently trading 0.35% higher. The increase is not positive for the S&P 500, however, the VIX is not high enough to point to significant downward volatility. The put-to-call ratio is at 0.74 which provides a bearish bias but is not indicating a stock market crash.

HFM - S&P 500 30-Minute Chart

Key Takeways:​

• Gold, the USD and stocks are declining together, reflecting weaker growth expectations, inflation concerns and pressure from elevated bond yields.
• Bond yields have eased slightly, helped by the US pausing tariffs on Canada, but investors remain focused on oil prices and the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Gold remains technically neutral, with $4,352.35 acting as a key bullish level. However, price action will depend on the US Dollar, bond yields but also oil prices.
• The S&P 500 remains under pressure, led by technology stocks. While VIX and put-to-call data point to bearish sentiment but not extreme market stress.
• Meta shares fell 4.45% as a major US trial began, with four states alleging that Facebook and Instagram were designed to be addictive and harmful to young users.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 20th August 2026.

Historic US Intervention Sees Gold Spike More Than 4%.

A historic day for the US and for global banking and finance. The US Dollar fell to its lowest point since the first half of May 2026 and Gold saw its largest increase in two months. The US Treasury, for the first time in decades, intervened in the bond market to purposely lower yields. In addition to this, Trump told journalists that the economic plan for Iran is starting soon.

The US Treasury is a regular buyer of US bonds, but not in the same way as the Fed and not to influence the market. The Treasury would normally purchase bonds in order to manage its debt maturity profile. However, the Treasury is seen as attempting to apply unconventional pressure to lower yields and reduce mortgage interest rates. This puts the government at odds with the Federal Reserve again.

HFM - US Dollar 4-Hour Chart

Trump Economic Plan Keeps Oil Above $85​

Trump has announced a new ‘economic warfare’ campaign against Iran, describing it as an ‘economic D-Day’ aimed at further isolating Tehran and forcing it to accept US demands. The plan will include sanctions, financial restrictions, and pressure on Iran’s oil trade.

Experts advise that this will include targeting not only Iranian entities but also foreign banks, shipping companies, and countries that help Iran bypass sanctions. As a result, crude oil prices remain above $85 per barrel for a third day.

US Treasury vs The Federal Reserve​

The Federal Reserve traditionally oversees the condition of interest rates, bond yields, and economic stability. What investors do not want to see from the US Treasury is unpredictability, yet this is what they saw. This is the first time in US history that the US government has deliberately bought long-term bonds to calm a surge in yields.

The Treasury announced that it would double certain long-term Treasury bond buybacks from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The move is specifically targeting bonds with maturities between 10 and 30 years. This came after the 30-year yield surged above 5.3%, its highest level since 2007.

This indicates to markets that high bond yields are worrying US economists and that the government fears yields may become ‘out of control’. A higher fiscal deficit and higher yields can trigger a global recession if the trend continues. As a result, investors sold the Dollar and opted for Gold. The move suggests traders are seeking alternative safe-haven assets to reduce exposure.

Simultaneously, investors are worried that Japan will have to sell US Treasury bonds in order to fund further currency interventions. This could further increase US bond yields and create a recurring issue for the US. Higher bond yields would normally support the US Dollar. However, if yields reach levels that trigger fear over fiscal stability, investors tend to turn to alternatives.

Key Correlation Returns​

Wednesday saw the traditional correlation between the US Dollar and Gold return after both fell on Tuesday. This was because investors were simultaneously concerned about rising inflation, bond yields, and the lack of Federal Reserve reaction. More information on this can be found here.

However, with the Treasury’s historic move, investors are less concerned about inflation and more concerned about fiscal policy and government debt levels. As a result, the correlation has returned, with the US Dollar declining and Gold rising.

Gold - Technique Analysis​

Gold’s technical picture turned sharply bullish yesterday, with XAU/USD rising more than 4% and breaking decisively through the $4,455–$4,555 resistance zone. The move created a strong bullish daily candle and confirmed a breakout from the recent consolidation. The price also pushed above the 200-day moving average, and most momentum-based indications are pointing to upward price movement.

The US Dollar continues to be one of the worst-performing currencies of the day, which is positive for Gold. In addition to this, Silver is also increasing during this morning’s Asian session, indicating that demand is across multiple metals, not only Gold. If Gold prices decline below $4,471.80, buy signals will significantly weaken in the short to medium term. Remaining above this price will continue to indicate that buyers are controlling the price action.

HFM - Gold 1-Hour Chart


Possible targets for Gold in the short term remain the psychological price and resistance levels between $4,500 and $4,529.

Key Takeaways:​

• The US Treasury’s intervention in long-term bonds marks a major shift in government involvement in financial markets.
• The US Dollar has fallen sharply as concerns increase over fiscal stability and government debt.
• Gold gained more than 4%, breaking key resistance levels and strengthening its bullish technical outlook.
• Oil remains above $85 as the US prepares a new economic pressure campaign against Iran.
• Markets are increasingly focused on rising bond yields, fiscal risks, and growing tension between Treasury policy and the Federal Reserve.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.