HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 17th August 2026.

Weak Dollar Triggers New Trends, But What Risks Remain?

The US Dollar declines for a second consecutive day reaching a key support level for the currency. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause for the upcoming months are driving the Dollar lower. At the same time, Gold and the stock market continue to gain bullish momentum and reach previous highs.

However, economists are paying close attention to bond yields, which continue to remain at a significant high and oil still trades above $80 per barrel. Over the weekend, Israel has attacked Iran’s proxy in Lebanon and Trump will soon announce the “economic plan” for Iran.

While oil prices remain above $80 and US bond yields remain high, the risk of a quick sudden decline is still elevated.

Historic Oil Disruptions

US Dollar Weakens To Key Levels​

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency of the day despite higher oil prices and higher bond yields. The decline is driven by investors pricing in no rate hike in September or October. A prolonged pause has become likely for the upcoming 2 months due to a slightly weaker consumer inflation and considerably lower producer inflation.

However, investors should keep in mind that the Dollar index is trading at a key support level at 99.25. This level was tested on July 31st and August 7th. However, the price is not forming a descending triangle pattern but rather a range bound condition. This means that buyers continue to hold strength at times. On the other hand, as the asset continues to retest the support level, the level may weaken and prompt a breakout.

Even though the Dollar is trading clearly lower, investors should be cautious of high oil prices and bond yields which normally push the price higher.

The best performing currencies of the day so far are the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar and Swiss Franc.

NASDAQ Rises But Risk Remain​

The NASDAQ moved higher, but not at the same pace as the decline seen in July. A neutral Federal Reserve is driving the bullish impulse wave. However, the fact that the Dollar is declining but yields are rising indicates key concerns for stocks. Investors fear the huge government borrowing, that inflation will remain high for years and that hikes will return later in the year.

Analysts advise that the AI trend will remain bumpy and that traders should be cautious of the above triggering a sudden decline. The key resistance level stands at $30,750, but NVIDIA’s earnings towards the end of the month will also influence the long-term price movement.

This week, the main earnings report release will come from Walmart which is the 12th most influential stock for the NASDAQ. Walmart stocks rose 3.90% over the past week.

Gold Turns Bullish In The Short-term​

The key factors for Gold are inflation and the Middle East. The US plans to hit Iran's economy hard, with President Donald Trump saying he doesn't care whether the conflict ends before the November US midterm elections. Scott Bessent also advises the move will hit Iran hard and will be the harshest ever seen. If the move keeps oil prices higher for longer, Gold may come under pressure again.

HFM - Gold 30-Minute Chart

The 30-minute and 1-hour signals are currently both “Strong Buy” according to moving averages. Gold also broke above the previous $4,380 resistance, while remaining above its short-term EMA structure. If the price rises above $4,406.00, which is the level where the current impulse wave surpasses 65% of the previous retracement, bullish signals will strengthen.

For bullish signals to be valid, traders will also be monitoring whether the Dollar remains closer to 99.00. Bond yields will also need to avoid rebounding during the day.

Key Takeaways:​

• The US Dollar falls for a second day as markets increasingly price in a Fed pause. The US Dollar Index is testing key support near 99.25.
• Gold and the NASDAQ remain bullish in the short-term, supported by a weaker Dollar and reduced expectations for rate hikes.
• High US bond yields and oil prices above $80 remain major risks and could trigger sudden reversals across markets.
• Middle East tensions and Trump’s upcoming economic measures against Iran could keep oil and inflation risks elevated.
• NVIDIA and Walmart earnings remain a key catalyst for the NASDAQ.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 18th August 2026.

Bond Market Fears Intensify as Risk-Off Sentiment Takes Hold.

As President Trump refuses to prolong the US-Iran extension, markets turn their attention to bond yields and oil prices. Prospects for peace in the Middle East remain limited, with the White House appearing to pause temporarily to replenish resources before potentially escalating tensions again.

Economists and analysts are anxious about the level of debt-to-GDP which looks to continue to grow. Country debt levels are on the rise globally as countries are spending considerably more on defence. At the same time higher inflation is eating into consumer spending. As a result, bond sales are slumping and yields are rising considerably.

Bond Yields Trigger Risk-Off Sentiment​

Sovereign borrowing costs are rising sharply across major markets, with 30-year US Treasury yields, French government borrowing costs and German yields all climbing to elevated levels. Analysts and fund managers are increasing their exposure to short-term borrowing in order to avoid high interest rates.

The increase reflects broader global pressures, including geopolitical fragmentation, concerns over government spending and long-term shifts in market structure and demographics.

Higher bond yields are creating a risk-off sentiment due to investors fearing a debt-crisis and even an economic downturn. All global indices are trading lower while the VIX, Dollar and Oil prices rebound.

This will be a key issue for the US government and its fiscal policy. Some US firms are increasingly tapping overseas bond markets, with one example being Alphabet Inc.’s decision to market its debut Australian dollar debt issue of $3.6 billion.

Crude Oil Rises As The US Do Not Renew Its Current Ceasefire With Iran​

Positive dynamics are supported by a decrease in the probability of a peace agreement between the US and Iran soon. The deal announced earlier in the month by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent never took place and instead, the parties demanded reparation payments from each other and intensified attacks on civilian tankers. As a result, a long blockade and an expansion of the energy crisis are expected.

President Trump has told his administration not to renew the ceasefire with Iran and has also warned Oman. As a result, oil prices are trading higher over the past 24 hours. Yesterday, the president said that the US still held leverage over Iran, pointing to the naval blockade of Iranian ports. He also repeated his proposal to declare the waterway US territory, arguing that Washington maintained full control over it.

This morning, Crude Oil prices rose above $85 for the first time in August. If oil prices remain elevated, inflation is likely to become sticky and increase the possibility of an interest rate hike in October. As a result, the US Dollar may continue to rebound and stocks to decline.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

NASDAQ Falls Over Key Economic and Fiscal Concerns​

The NASDAQ is declining this morning and looks likely to form a third day of consecutive falls. The NASDAQ is coming under pressure from bond yields and oil prices which are triggering a lower market risk appetite. The VIX Index this morning is trading 1.50% higher and the Put to Call ratio is again on the rise. This is currently verifying the risk-off sentiment.

Investors fear that the cost of debt and higher debt-to-GDP adds an additional level of risk to the stock market. In addition to this, higher oil prices and lower employment data globally also points to risks from both the monetary policy and consumer demand.

If oil prices remain above $85 per barrel and bond yields do not subside, the NASDAQ remains at risk of further downside. Two key support levels can be seen at $29,139 and $29,435.

HFM - NASDAQ 30-Minute Chart

In the short-term, the NASDAQ is trading below key Moving Averages and is forming lower lows and highs. This supports the bearish bias but the price has slightly retraced higher. For this reason, investors will be looking for the price to again decline below $29,750 in order to witness stronger sell indications from the price action and indicators.

If the NASDAQ is to rebound upwards, the resistance levels can be seen at $29,852 and $30,207.

Key Takeaways:​

• US-Iran tensions remain elevated, with the US not extending the ceasefire and prospects for a near-term peace agreement appearing limited.
• Global bond yields are rising sharply as investors worry about growing government debt, higher defence spending, inflation and the risk of an economic slowdown.
• Crude oil has climbed above $85, raising concerns that inflation could remain persistent and increase the likelihood of tighter monetary policy.
• The NASDAQ remains under pressure as higher oil prices, rising bond yields and weaker risk appetite weigh on equities, keeping the short-term outlook bearish.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.