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[HFM.]

Date: 20th July 2026.

Oil Surges Above $90 as US-Iran Conflict Escalates | Market Briefing.

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Oil Surges Above $90 as Middle East Tensions Shake Global Markets

Global financial markets began the week on a cautious note as renewed military escalation between the United States and Iran sent oil prices sharply higher, reignited inflation concerns, and forced investors to reassess the outlook for interest rates. While equity markets attempted to stabilize after last week's technology-led selloff, rising geopolitical risks have once again become the dominant driver of market sentiment.

Oil Climbs as Energy Supply Risks Return

Brent crude rose above $90 per barrel, its highest level in more than a month, after the conflict between the US and Iran intensified. Fresh military strikes, attacks on vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and growing uncertainty over regional stability have raised fears of disruptions to one of the world's most important energy corridors.

The Strait of Hormuz normally handles around 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making any threat to shipping routes highly significant for global energy markets.

Oil has now gained more than 20% during July, reversing much of the decline seen after the temporary ceasefire reached earlier this summer. Investors are increasingly pricing in the possibility that tensions could remain elevated for an extended period, keeping energy prices supported.

Inflation Fears Return to the Forefront

The surge in crude oil is quickly changing the macroeconomic narrative.

Only days ago, softer US inflation data had strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve might be approaching the end of its tightening cycle. However, higher energy prices threaten to reverse that progress.

Oil prices above $90 per barrel increase transportation, manufacturing, and production costs across the economy, creating renewed inflationary pressure. As a result, markets are beginning to price in the possibility that central banks may need to keep interest rates higher for longer—or even consider additional rate hikes if inflation accelerates again.

Government bond markets reflected this shift in expectations, with yields moving higher across several regions as investors reduced exposure to fixed-income assets.

Technology Stocks Face a Second Challenge

The geopolitical backdrop comes at a difficult time for global technology shares.

Last week, semiconductor and AI-related stocks experienced sharp selling pressure after Chinese AI developers introduced increasingly competitive large language models, prompting investors to reassess expectations surrounding the dominance of US artificial intelligence companies.

Although some Chinese technology stocks recovered modestly, overall market sentiment remains fragile as investors weigh both geopolitical uncertainty and changing dynamics within the AI sector.

Gold Holds Firm Despite Rising Risks

Interestingly, gold has shown a relatively restrained response to the latest geopolitical developments.

Spot gold continues to trade near $4,000 per ounce, remaining close to recent support levels despite the surge in oil prices.

Normally, escalating geopolitical tensions would trigger stronger demand for safe-haven assets. However, investors appear more focused on the implications of higher oil prices for interest rates. Rising bond yields tend to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets such as gold, helping explain the metal's relatively muted performance.

This suggests that monetary policy expectations are currently exerting greater influence on precious metals than geopolitical headlines alone.

Europe Watches Inflation Ahead of the ECB

Attention now turns to this week's European Central Bank meeting.

Latest Eurozone data showed annual inflation easing to 2.8% in June, while core inflation also moderated, supporting the case for policymakers to pause after June's interest-rate increase.

However, the renewed rise in energy prices complicates that outlook. If oil continues climbing, inflation could once again accelerate during the second half of the year.

Markets currently expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged this week, although investors will closely monitor President Christine Lagarde's comments for any indication of future tightening should energy-driven inflation persist.

Market Outlook

Financial markets now face two powerful forces pulling in opposite directions.

On one hand, recent economic data suggest inflation has been cooling, and growth is stabilising. On the other, renewed conflict in the Middle East threatens global energy supplies, lifting commodity prices and potentially delaying the easing of monetary policy.

Going forward, investors will closely monitor:

* Developments in the US-Iran conflict and security around the Strait of Hormuz.
* Brent crude's ability to remain above the $90 level.
* Central bank guidance from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
* Inflation expectations and bond yield movements.
* Market sentiment toward technology and AI-related equities.

For now, geopolitical risk has firmly returned to the top of investors' watchlists. If tensions continue to escalate, volatility across commodities, currencies, bonds, and equities is likely to remain elevated, making risk management and careful positioning increasingly important in the weeks ahead.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 21st July 2026.

USDCAD Outlook: Tariffs, Oil Risks & Canadian Dollar Volatility.

Global economic dynamics are once again being tested by a complex combination of geopolitical volatility in the Middle East and a new wave of US trade protectionism. The pressure on the Canadian dollar (Loonie) to around 1.40 per USD reflects not only domestic macroeconomic readings but also the vulnerability of Canada's trade structure to external shocks involving the world's vital energy arteries: the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

Easing Inflation and Pressure on the "Loonie"​

Canadian inflation reports showed a decline in the annual inflation rate to 2.8%, while the Bank of Canada's (BoC) preferred core inflation measure slumped to its lowest point in more than five years.

While this slowdown provides some relief for consumers, it directly reduces market expectations for further interest rate hikes. With the benchmark interest rate stuck at 2.25%, domestic bond yields lost their competitive appeal to foreign investors, triggering further depreciation in the Loonie exchange rate.

Geopolitical Influences: The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Energy Supply​

Amidst slowing domestic inflation, the global energy market is haunted by geopolitical uncertainty originating in the Middle East, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea.

• A Fragile Global Energy Pulse: The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are two of the most crucial chokepoints for global crude oil shipping routes. Escalation of conflict in the region directly drives up global oil prices.
• Impact of Shocks on Inflation & Policy: Although the Bank of Canada assesses that the surge in energy costs from the Middle East crisis has not yet spread broadly to core economic sectors, persistently high oil prices maintain the risk of imported inflation. For Canada, as an energy exporting nation, fluctuating global commodity prices due to supply threats in the Strait of Hormuz create a paradox: boosting energy sector revenues on the one hand, but increasing macroeconomic vulnerabilities and global supply chains on the other.

Escalation of US Protectionism: Additional 50% Tariffs​

Canada's economic situation became even more strained when the White House unilaterally announced an aggressive protectionist policy: an additional 50% ad valorem tariff on certain Canadian products, primarily covering automotive, parts, and consumer goods.

This policy, effective August 19, was framed by Washington as a response to what it called Ottawa's "discriminatory policies" against US automotive, alcoholic beverages, and dairy products.

• Threat to Integrated Supply Chains: This move is a major blow to the integration of the North American Supply Chain Agreement (USMCA), which has closely linked the manufacturing industries of the US, Canada, and Mexico.
• Consumer Inflation Risk: High import taxes not only threaten the profit margins of the cross-border automotive industry but also pose a significant risk of shifting the cost burden to consumers in both countries.
• Potential Trade War: Ottawa's threat to retaliate opens the door to an open trade war, further complicating the investment climate amidst Canada's sluggish economic recovery efforts due to global uncertainty.

Strategic Conclusion​

Based on the USDCAD price structure, the pair is experiencing a healthy pullback after stalling near the key Fibonacci resistance area of the 0.5 ratio and the previous swing high line. Currently, the price is approaching the dynamic support area of the moving average line and the 0.382 Fibonacci level (around 1.3981), while the RSI momentum indicator indicates easing short-term selling pressure. As long as the price maintains this classic support level and the main uptrend structure remains intact, the opportunity for an upward price bounce remains open to retest the resistance area in the range of 1.4136 to 1.4291 (0.618FR).

The current Loonie crisis reflects a dangerous crossroads: domestic pressures stemming from declining interest rate expectations, disruptions to global energy supply chains caused by instability in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and the devastating impact of unilateral US tariffs. If these geopolitical tensions over energy and the trade war are not eased soon, Canada's economic resilience will be severely tested until the end of 2026.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ady Phangestu
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 22nd July 2026.

Big Tech Earnings vs Rising Oil Prices: Market Outlook.

Financial markets are approaching a pivotal moment as two powerful themes collide. On one side, investors are betting that another strong earnings season from the world’s largest technology companies will reignite the artificial intelligence rally. On the other, escalating tensions in the Middle East are driving oil prices sharply higher, threatening to revive inflation and delay expectations for lower interest rates.

For CFD traders, these competing forces are creating opportunities across equity indices, commodities, and currency markets. The next few trading sessions could determine whether risk appetite continues to recover or shifts back towards defensive assets.

Alphabet and Tesla Earnings Could Set the Tone for Global Markets​

Investor attention is firmly focused on earnings from Alphabet and Tesla, the first of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ companies to report this quarter. Their results will provide fresh insight into whether massive investment in artificial intelligence is beginning to generate sustainable returns.

Technology stocks have already experienced significant volatility this month. After a sharp correction pushed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index into bear-market territory, bargain hunters helped drive a strong rebound. However, expectations remain extremely high.

This means the market is no longer rewarding companies simply for beating earnings estimates. Investors are looking for stronger revenue growth, improving profit margins, and, perhaps most importantly, confident guidance on future AI spending.

If Alphabet delivers another optimistic outlook, it could restore confidence across the technology sector ahead of earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. A weaker-than-expected report, however, could trigger another round of profit-taking in AI-related shares.

Trading Implications

For index traders, the NASDAQ 100 is likely to remain the most sensitive market. Positive earnings guidance could support another move higher, while disappointing forecasts may quickly spill over into the broader S&P 500 as investors reduce exposure to high-growth technology stocks.

Rising Oil Prices Bring Inflation Back Into Focus​

While earnings dominate the headlines, crude oil is quietly becoming one of the most important drivers of broader market sentiment.

Brent crude has climbed above $92 per barrel, its highest level in several weeks, after hopes for immediate US-Iran negotiations faded. Continued military activity in the Middle East and ongoing threats to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz have renewed concerns about global energy supplies.

Higher oil prices matter because they increase production and transportation costs across the global economy, making it more difficult for inflation to continue slowing.

After several months of improving inflation data, investors are once again questioning whether central banks may need to keep interest rates higher for longer.

US Treasury yields have already risen to their highest levels in roughly two months as markets reassess the outlook for monetary policy.



Trading implications

Should Brent establish itself above $90–92, inflation expectations could continue rising. That environment may support energy stocks while creating headwinds for growth-oriented sectors such as technology. Conversely, any easing of geopolitical tensions could quickly trigger profit-taking in crude oil and improve sentiment across equity markets.

Gold Defies Higher Bond Yields​

Gold’s recent performance has been particularly noteworthy.

Normally, higher Treasury yields reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. Instead, bullion has climbed back above $4,100 per ounce, supported by continued geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing purchases from central banks.

The simultaneous rise in both gold and bond yields suggests investors are increasingly using precious metals as a hedge against geopolitical risks rather than simply reacting to changes in interest rates.

As long as tensions in the Middle East remain elevated, gold may continue attracting defensive capital even if the US dollar stays firm.

Trading implications

Gold traders should monitor developments in both the Middle East and US interest-rate expectations. Escalating geopolitical risks could extend bullion’s rally, while stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and improving risk sentiment may encourage some rotation back into equities.

The Japanese Yen Remains Under Heavy Pressure​

Currency markets are reflecting the same macroeconomic themes.

The Japanese yen has weakened beyond ¥163 per US dollar, reaching its lowest level since 1986. Rising US bond yields, elevated oil prices, and Japan's dependence on imported energy continue to weigh heavily on the currency.

Japanese officials have once again warned they are prepared to intervene if excessive volatility continues, but markets remain unconvinced that verbal intervention alone will reverse the trend.

Meanwhile, strong demand at Japan’s latest 40-year government bond auction indicates that higher domestic yields are beginning to attract long-term investors, although this has done little to support the yen.

Trading Implications

USD/JPY remains highly sensitive to changes in US Treasury yields. Any further rise in yields could keep the pair supported, while unexpected intervention from Japanese authorities remains the biggest short-term downside risk.

Can AI Optimism Continue to Outweigh Geopolitical Risks?​

Markets are currently balancing two very different narratives.

The first is the long-term growth story surrounding artificial intelligence, which continues to support technology valuations despite recent volatility.

The second is a renewed inflation story driven by higher oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty, raising the possibility that central banks may maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer than previously expected.

At present, corporate earnings are helping investors overlook many of these macroeconomic risks. However, that balance could shift quickly if technology companies fail to justify current valuations.

Market Outlook​

For CFD traders, the coming days may prove decisive.

If Alphabet and Tesla deliver strong earnings alongside confident guidance, equity markets could extend their recent recovery and reinforce the AI investment theme. However, if results disappoint while oil prices continue climbing, markets may increasingly focus on rising inflation, higher bond yields, and slowing economic momentum.

The key markets to watch include the NASDAQ 100, S&P 500, Brent crude, Gold, and USD/JPY, where volatility is likely to remain elevated as investors respond to both corporate earnings and geopolitical developments.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 23rd July 2026.

Oil Prices Surge Toward $100 as AI Earnings Lift Asian Stocks.

Global markets are navigating a delicate balance between optimism over artificial intelligence (AI) investment and growing concerns about the impact of rising energy prices. While strong earnings from major technology companies have supported Asian equities, escalating tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude oil close to $100 per barrel, raising fresh concerns about inflation, interest rates and global economic growth.

For CFD traders, these developments are creating opportunities across commodities, stock indices, currencies and energy-related equities, with market sentiment likely to remain driven by both geopolitical headlines and corporate earnings.

Oil Prices Rally as Middle East Tensions Threaten Global Supply​

Oil prices extended their recent gains after Iran-backed Houthi militants reportedly attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, increasing concerns over global energy supply disruptions.

Brent crude climbed above $96 per barrel, briefly approaching $98, its highest level in more than a month. The latest attacks have heightened fears that disruptions could spread beyond the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another strategic shipping route that plays a vital role in global oil transportation.

The sharp rise in oil prices has become one of the biggest drivers of financial markets, as higher energy costs can:

• Increase inflationary pressures.
• Raise operating costs for businesses.
• Reduce consumer spending.
• Delay expectations for lower interest rates.

If Brent crude continues moving toward the $100 level, energy markets could remain highly volatile while broader equity markets face additional pressure.

Asian Stocks Gain as AI Investment Momentum Continues​

Despite a mixed session on Wall Street, Asian stock markets moved higher as investors regained confidence in semiconductor companies expected to benefit from continued AI investment.

South Korea led regional gains, with technology shares outperforming:

• Samsung Electronics rose around 3%.
• SK Hynix gained more than 3%.
• Japan's SoftBank Group also advanced as investors remained optimistic about AI-related growth.

The recovery follows stronger-than-expected quarterly results from Alphabet, Google's parent company, which demonstrated continued growth despite significantly increasing its investment in AI infrastructure.

Although Alphabet's earnings exceeded expectations, investors reacted cautiously after management announced another substantial increase in capital expenditure. The market is becoming increasingly focused on whether billions of dollars being invested in AI will generate sustainable long-term returns rather than simply rewarding companies for expanding their AI ambitions.

Technology Earnings Enter a Critical Phase​

Alphabet's results mark the beginning of one of the most closely watched earnings seasons in recent years.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming results from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Intel, looking for evidence that heavy investment in AI infrastructure is translating into stronger revenues and profitability.

After last week's sharp correction in semiconductor stocks, earnings over the coming weeks could determine whether the AI-driven rally resumes or whether investors become more selective toward technology companies with clear monetisation strategies.

The focus has shifted from AI excitement to AI execution.

Higher Oil Prices Complicate the Inflation Outlook​

While corporate earnings remain supportive for equities, rising oil prices present a growing challenge for central banks.

Higher energy costs risk slowing the recent decline in inflation, potentially forcing policymakers to keep interest rates elevated for longer than markets previously expected.

US Treasury yields have continued moving higher as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy. Markets are increasingly considering the possibility that the Federal Reserve could delay future rate cuts if inflation proves more persistent due to higher energy prices.

This environment generally supports:

• The US Dollar.
• Energy producers.
• Oil-related stocks.

At the same time, it may create headwinds for growth-focused sectors, consumer discretionary companies and more interest-rate-sensitive assets.

Currency Markets Reflect Shifting Expectations​

The US Dollar remained relatively strong as Treasury yields stayed elevated.

Meanwhile, the Japanese yen continued trading near multi-decade lows against the Dollar, reflecting the widening gap between US and Japanese interest rates. If energy prices remain elevated and US yields continue rising, the Dollar could maintain its strength against several major currencies.

Key Events Traders Should Monitor​

Market volatility is likely to remain elevated over the coming days as investors monitor several major catalysts:

• Developments in the Middle East and potential disruptions to global oil supply.
• Whether Brent crude can sustain a move above $95 and challenge the $100 level.
• Earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Intel.
• The European Central Bank's latest policy decision.
• Next week's Federal Reserve meeting and any changes to interest rate expectations.

Market Outlook​

Global markets are currently being shaped by two powerful themes. Continued investment in artificial intelligence is providing long-term support for technology and semiconductor companies, while rising oil prices are reviving concerns about inflation and slowing expectations for lower interest rates.

For CFD traders, this combination is likely to keep volatility elevated across commodities, stock indices, currencies and energy markets. As geopolitical developments continue to influence oil prices and major technology companies report earnings, markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to both economic data and breaking news, creating opportunities for traders prepared to navigate a rapidly changing environment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 24th July 2026.

Gold Regains Short-Term Momentum as Trump Introduces New Tariffs.

Gold prices fell after attempting to regain bullish momentum throughout the week. Both the US Dollar and Gold have been rising simultaneously over the past week despite their inverse correlation. On Thursday, Gold gave way, declining by 1.95% as the US Dollar continued to rise further.

On Friday, Gold was quick to rebound after a poor session on Thursday due to Trump introducing new trade tariffs. However, investors are contemplating whether the commodity can retain its bullish momentum in the long term. This will largely depend on the US Dollar, the Middle East tensions, and global interest rates.

Gold’s Poor Performance​

Gold prices are facing pressure as investors shift money into equities and assets that benefit from higher interest rates. Even though Gold has shown strong bullish price movement at the European open, the US Dollar is not experiencing the equivalent weakness. At the same time, the longer-term pressures for Gold remain, meaning traders should remain cautious of upward impulse waves.

According to the World Gold Council (WGC), Chinese physically backed gold ETFs recorded their largest monthly outflow on record in June, with assets under management falling 16% and holdings dropping by 17 tonnes. Stronger Chinese stock markets, a firmer yuan, and higher yields on other investments have reduced demand for Gold.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to support the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. Concerns that higher oil prices could fuel inflation have increased expectations that the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. This has strengthened the US Dollar and pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher. These factors are limiting Gold's upside and may even push the price even lower.

Meanwhile, trading activity in the gold market has slowed. CME data shows futures and options volumes have eased, suggesting traders are waiting for a clearer catalyst before making larger moves.

This may come from the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, 29 July Currently, only 29% of the market expects the Fed to increase interest rates. However, this is higher than the 12% seen last week. Also, less than 10% believe the Fed will not hike by the end of the year. This continues to be a pressure point for Gold. If the Fed does not hike but indicates a future hike, Gold may still witness renewed pressure.

New Trump Tariffs​

Overnight, President Trump’s administration has introduced new 10%-12.5% tariffs on imports from 60 trading partners, citing concerns over forced labor in global supply chains. The move effectively rebuilds much of the US tariff wall after earlier tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court. This time, Trump is using a different legal framework under the Trade Act of 1974, and forced labour as the pretext.

The new duties are expected to increase trade tensions, raise import costs, and keep markets focused on the potential impact on inflation and global economic growth. In the past, tariffs have supported Gold as they also have this morning. However, this may not be the case if the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates.

Gold - Technical Analysis​

HFM - Gold 2-Hour Chart

The US Dollar Index is trading lower this morning, but remains above the main moving averages on the larger timeframes. On smaller timeframes, the price remains at a neutral level based on moving average and the Relative Strength Index. If the price of Gold rises above $4,058.00 and the US Dollar Index falls below 101.11, Gold may see a bullish signal arise from indicators and price action. However, this only applies in the short-term.

Key Takeaway points:​

• Gold remains under pressure from a stronger US dollar, higher Treasury yields, and expectations of higher interest rates.
• Chinese gold ETF demand weakened sharply, as investors shifted capital into equities and higher-yielding assets.
• Next week’s Federal Reserve meeting is crucial, with any hawkish signals likely to pressure gold further.
• Trump’s new tariffs and Middle East tensions support safe-haven demand, but a stronger dollar limits gold’s upside.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 27th July 2026.

Fed Decision in Focus as Oil Falls, Gold Holds Above $4,000 and US Dollar Weakens.

Investors are bracing for a central bank decision from the US, UK, and Japan. The best-performing currencies at the weekly open so far are the Swiss Franc, Euro, and the Australian Dollar. The worst-performing currency is the US Dollar, which is trading 0.30% lower.

The price movement is partially due to the upcoming central bank decisions and economic data. However, this was also influenced by the pause in hostilities between the US and Iran after 13 consecutive nights of attacks. This has caused lower oil prices, higher stocks, and a weaker US Dollar.

US Dollar​

The price of the US Dollar over the past month has been trading within the range of 100.00 to 101.60. This is the region that is pricing in further rate hikes, but not necessarily an ultra- restrictive policy. The price is also witnessing a clear correlation between the currency and the conflict in the Middle East.

As tensions rise and the conflict escalates, the US Dollar clearly trades higher due to its safe-haven status. Traders are opting for the USD as their safe-haven trade due to high interest rates and Gold’s uncompetitive pricing.

The absence of new US strikes on Iran overnight marked another step towards de-escalation after nearly two weeks of sustained military exchanges. As Washington and Tehran refrained from launching further attacks, investors interpreted the pause as a sign that diplomatic efforts were gaining traction. For this reason, the US Dollar Index fell during this morning with a bearish gap measuring 0.24%.

Though, investors should note that the geopolitical situation within the region particularly amongst Iran, Israel, US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel remains uneasy. In addition to this, the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision is also largely influencing the US Dollar.

Crude Oil Drops Over Renewed Hopes in Middle East Conflict​

The price of Crude oil saw a significant decline on Monday due to de-escalation within the region. The price closed on Friday evening at $90.85 and opened this morning at $84.60, measuring a 6.85% decline. This decline is vital as the Federal Reserve will soon make its rate decision.

The Iranian Army Chief told the country’s national TV channel that it is no longer taking retaliatory action in order for Iran and Omani officials to meet and resolve shipping through the strait. The US is also doing the same, which gives investors the sense of lower tensions and lower risk. For this reason, oil prices are significantly lower and still declining.

If the Strait of Hormuz does reopen and oil supply continues to increase, the price of oil could potentially fall back down to $70 per barrel. Most momentum-based indicators are also pointing towards a similar price movement. However, this will depend on whether ships can indeed pass through the strait.

HFM - Crude Oil 30-Minute Chart

If oil prices continue to fall, this could add further pressure on the US Dollar while slightly supporting Gold prices.

Gold Rebounds As The Dollar Falls​

The price of Gold is trading above $4,000 after finding support from the weaker US Dollar. Some countries have also confirmed that they are taking advantage of the lower Gold prices in order to prop up their portfolios. In particular, China was seen active in the Gold market due to lower Gold prices and a strong Yuan. Chinese gold imports rose to a two-year high in June, to about 173 tonnes, according to the latest customs data.

If the US Dollar continues to decline, Gold prices could retain momentum. However, this will largely depend on whether the US Dollar Index falls below 100.00 and on the Federal Reserve. Currently, markets expect the Federal Reserve to pause and then hike in September. If the Fed hikes earlier or indicates consecutive hikes, Gold could quickly retrace back below $4,000.

HFM - Gold 30-Minutes

Key Takeaways:​

• The US Dollar weakens as easing Middle East tensions reduce safe-haven demand ahead of key central bank decisions.
• Crude oil dropped nearly 7% after signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran ease supply disruption concerns.
• Gold remains above $4,000, supported by a weaker US Dollar and strong physical demand, particularly from China.
• The Federal Reserve decision takes centre stage, with investors watching for clues on the timing of future interest rate hikes.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 28th July 2026.

NASDAQ Sell-off Deepens: Why Stocks Are Falling and What Happens Next.

The NASDAQ is declining for the fifth consecutive day as the global stock sell-off gains momentum. All global indices are trading in the red on Tuesday, with some stock exchanges even temporarily halting sell orders. The KOSPI (Korean Stock Index) stopped trading on two occasions during the Asian session and has so far fallen 10%.

Even though all global indices are trading lower, US and Asian indices are witnessing the strongest declines. The NASDAQ is particularly in the spotlight as it falls to its lowest point since 5 May just before the Federal Reserve rate decision and major tech earnings.

Why Are Indices Declining?​

The NASDAQ and global indices are declining due to investor fear of over AI spending, high stock prices, and widening credit spreads. Widening credit spreads are known to be negative for stocks, as investors deem the company to be higher risk. So far, investors have ignored the widening spreads due to higher earnings and the AI-trend. However, as stock prices rise to considerably high levels, investors are becoming cautious and are partially taking profits.

Most company earnings so far, including Alphabet, have beaten expectations, but at the same time have confirmed higher borrowing and investments in AI. Analysts now advise that companies need to beat expectations by a larger percentage in order to gain interest from investors. This is due to the widening credit spreads.

Credit spreads for Alphabet and Oracle are at the widest on record. For Amazon, they are at their widest since 2018, and for Apple, the widest since 2011. Nonetheless, the stocks that drove the NASDAQ lower were NVIDIA, Space Exploration Technology, and Advanced Micro Devices. NVIDIA stock fell 4.99% on Monday and continues to decline during this morning’s session.

Upcoming quarterly earnings reports from influential companies on Wednesday and Thursday will continue to strongly influence the index. Tomorrow evening, Microsoft and Meta will make their reports public, while Apple and Amazon will release theirs on Thursday evening. The four companies make up 30% of the NASDAQ. Analysts advise that the companies will need to strongly beat expectations and not show significantly higher borrowing in order to prompt higher demand for their stocks.

Lastly, the Federal Reserve will make its interest rate decision public tomorrow evening at 18:00 GMT+3.

Federal Reserve Surprise Hike?​

Markets were split on whether the Federal Reserve would raise the Federal Funds Rate tomorrow evening. Nevertheless, the consensus among economists up to now was that the Fed would pause in July before hiking in September. This is now changing, with some fund managers contemplating whether the Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, will opt for a surprise hike.

Citadel Securities believes the Federal Reserve could surprise markets with a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at this week’s meeting. Yesterday, the firm argued that such a move would reinforce Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s commitment to restoring price stability and demonstrate that policymakers are serious about keeping inflation under control. Citadel also believes a rate hike now would provide greater flexibility to lower rates later if economic conditions weaken.

This is something that can also be seen among US bond yields, which have been trading at a recent high. The FedWatch Tool also indicates that the possibility of a rate hike tomorrow has risen from 26% to 38%. If the Federal Reserve does indeed hike or seems particularly hawkish, the stock market could potentially remain under pressure.

Is it Time to Buy the Dip?​

Currently, the price of the NASDAQ is showing a clear retracement pattern. The previous retracement, seen in December to March, measured 13.50%. The NASDAQ is currently trading 10% lower, meaning, based on previous patterns, the price may potentially fall further. At the same time, risks do remain, as most economists believe the Federal Reserve will adjust interest rates in the upcoming months.

For this reason, a bullish rebound cannot be confirmed, particularly before tomorrow’s Federal Reserve rate decision and the vital upcoming earnings reports. These will be key price drivers, which may either drive the price lower or trigger a rebound. By the end of the week, investors will have a broader set of economic data and corporate earnings to make more informed decisions.

NASDAQ - Technical Analysis and Forecasts​

HFM - NASDAQ Daily Chart


The 15-minute chart continues to show short-term weakness, with the index making lower highs and lower lows. Price remains below the short-term moving averages, while momentum indicators suggest sellers remain in control. However, the daily chart suggests the NASDAQ remains in a broader long-term uptrend, but the recent pullback has weakened momentum considerably.

If the stock market is to witness a crash and major sell-off, investors will be focusing on two possible areas. The resistance being flipped into a support level can be seen at $26,252.00, which is a 14.80% decline from the recent high. The second is based on previous stock market crashes, which, on average, are around 25%. This would take the price to $23,135.00. If the price is to rebound, the first level traders will focus on is the resistance level at $30,769.00.

FAQs​

What Are Credit Spreads?​

Credit spreads measure the difference between the interest rate a company pays to borrow and the yield on a risk-free government bond. Wider credit spreads indicate investors perceive higher credit risk, while narrower spreads suggest stronger confidence in the company’s financial health.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

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