HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 3rd October 2025.

US Government Shutdown: Market Fallout, Dollar Outlook, and Gold’s Rally.

Investors Brace for Economic Fallout​

The United States government has officially entered its first shutdown in nearly seven years after lawmakers failed to agree on a funding bill. The development has unsettled global investors, with US equity futures slipping and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.1% after the midnight deadline passed.

Federal agencies have been ordered to suspend nonessential services, putting hundreds of thousands of employees on hold and creating uncertainty across vital public programs. Unlike past shutdowns that ended quickly, this standoff looks more severe and could inflict lasting damage on the US economy.

Labour Market and Economic Data Risks​

The most immediate challenge is the suspension of government data releases. Reports on jobless claims, factory orders, and September payrolls will not be published, depriving markets of key signals to assess economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

“This shutdown could prove more disruptive than usual because of the heightened stakes leading into it,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Market Reactions So Far​

• Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% and S&P 500 contracts dropped 0.8%.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.16%.
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to 17.28, signalling higher risk aversion.

With stock valuations already stretched after a long bull run, analysts warn that any sharp downturn could trigger forced selling, amplifying losses.

Safe-Haven Demand: Gold, Treasuries, and Currencies​

If the shutdown drags on, investors may seek refuge in defensive assets:

• Gold prices have surged to record highs near $4,000, supported by dollar weakness.
• The Japanese yen and the euro could benefit further if the dollar continues to retreat.
• Long-dated Treasuries may attract buyers on expectations of weaker growth.

“Given high yields, US Treasuries remain attractive, and we advise clients sensitive to shutdown risk to increase exposure,” said Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Sector-by-Sector Impact​

Defence: Defence giants such as RTX, L3Harris Technologies, and AeroVironment have benefited from strong federal spending. While analysts expect little direct impact, investor sentiment could cool. General Dynamics was recently upgraded to a “buy” on the view that any pullback may present an entry opportunity.

Government Services & Airlines

• Consulting firms like Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, and CACI International often see revenue delays during shutdowns.
• Airlines, which rely on government travel for up to 2% of annual revenue, could be hit harder. Reduced leisure travel by unpaid federal workers may further weaken the industry.

Cyclical Sectors: Industrials and financials are especially vulnerable if growth slows and unemployment rises. Caterpillar, Deere, and major banks like JPMorgan Chase may face volatility, while consumer-focused firms such as Affirm Holdings could see sharper swings.

Bloomberg Economics projects that 640,000 federal workers could be furloughed, pushing unemployment to 4.7%. Permanent job cuts, as threatened, may keep joblessness elevated even after operations resume.

Outlook: Volatility Ahead​

Historically, shutdowns have had limited long-term impact on Wall Street. On average, the S&P 500 has barely moved during the last 20 shutdowns. However, near-term volatility is expected, particularly if data releases are delayed.

Private reports, such as ISM manufacturing and services surveys, will likely gain importance for traders navigating uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 10th October 2025.

Stronger US Dollar Pressures Oil and Gold as Fed Divisions Deepen.

Oil prices significantly fell on Thursday after increasing in value throughout the month so far. The stronger price of the US Dollar is now harming the price of oil, as well as de-escalations in global conflicts. Is the Dollar’s current trend likely to continue, and what would that mean for commodities such as Oil?

US Dollar​

When it comes to the US Dollar, investors continue to price in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for September. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but policymakers were divided on the path ahead. However, the Meeting Minutes confirm several members of the committee supported further monetary easing, arguing that the risks of a weakening labour market outweigh inflation concerns and noting that recent White House tariff changes are unlikely to fuel price growth.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said he would not oppose further rate reductions to support employment, but warned that if inflation remains well above the 2% target and proves difficult to contain, it could inflict serious harm on the US economy. Regardless of this, economists continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut in October and most likely again in December. Currently, the lower interest rates are the largest risk and downward force for the US Dollar.

The upward price pressure is partially due to the US government shutdown, which is triggering a lower risk appetite. The latest development for the US Dollar is the currency swap between the US and the Central Bank of Argentina. The move is, in a sense, a bailout for the country, which has seen its GDP growth fall to -1.7%.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart


Investors should be cautious of the resistance level at 99.90 on the US Dollar Index. If the index rises above this level, it will be the highest the US Dollar has been since May.

Crude Oil​

Oil prices have risen recently due to the OPEC+ decision to raise output by only 137,000 barrels per day, well below analysts’ expectations of a 274,000–411,000 barrel increase. However, the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which took effect yesterday, has limited further upside. Under the agreement, hostilities will end, Israel will partially withdraw troops from Gaza, and Hamas will release its hostages.

In addition to this, no further escalations have been made in Eastern Europe by Russia. As a result, the upward pressure in Oil prices has significantly fallen. In addition to this, the more expensive US Dollar also makes Oil and similar commodities less attractive for buyers.

Furthermore, Gold prices fell 2.80% on Thursday, mainly due to high profit-taking and the bullish US Dollar having a negative effect. The US Dollar is pressuring Gold prices due to the well-known inverse correlation between the two.

Key Takeaways:​

1. Oil prices fell as a stronger US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions reduced upward momentum.
2. Fed minutes show officials divided on future cuts, but further easing remains likely this year.
3. The US Dollar strengthened amid safe-haven demand, government shutdown risks, and a new Argentina currency swap.
4. Gold dropped 2.8% as profit-taking and the Dollar’s rally pressured commodities across markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 13th October 2025.

Asian Stocks Fall as US–China Tensions Rise; Gold Nears $4,060.

Asian equities fell sharply on Monday after renewed trade frictions between Washington and Beijing disrupted the recent period of calm on Wall Street.

US markets ended last week lower as President Donald Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports, materials vital for industries ranging from consumer electronics to aerospace manufacturing.

Despite the turmoil, US futures rebounded, with S&P 500 contracts up 1.4% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 1%.

China’s latest trade data showed global exports rising 8.3% in September compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in six months, as manufacturers shifted focus to non-US markets. However, exports to the United States plunged 27% year-on-year, underscoring the impact of ongoing trade disputes.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slumped 2.2% to 25,700.07, while most other key regional markets also recorded losses exceeding 1%. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 3,889.50, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7% to 3,584.55, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.8% to 8,882.80. Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.4%, and India’s Sensex eased 0.4%. Japanese markets remained closed for a public holiday.

On Friday, US indices endured their steepest declines in months: the S&P 500 dropped 2.7% to 6,552.51, the Dow retreated 1.9% to 45,479.60, and the Nasdaq fell 3.6% to 22,204.43, signalling renewed concerns about the trade war’s escalation.

Trump, writing on Truth Social, criticised Beijing and hinted that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might no longer take place, saying ‘there seems to be no reason’ to continue with the discussions.

Losses were widespread across the S&P 500, affecting nearly all sectors, from major technology firms such as Apple and Nvidia to smaller companies struggling with uncertainty over tariffs and global supply chains.

Equities were already vulnerable to a pullback following the S&P 500’s relentless 35% rally from its April low. Analysts have long argued that valuations have become overstretched, with stock prices rising far faster than corporate earnings, particularly in the AI sector, where some see parallels to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s.

Meanwhile, bond yields fell as investors sought safety. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 4.05% from 4.14% on Thursday, following weak US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

Oil markets also experienced significant swings. USOIL slid 4.2% to $58.90 per barrel on Friday, weighed down by reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a development that could ease concerns about potential supply disruptions. UKOIL fell 3.8% to $62.73 but recovered modestly early Monday to trade near $63.58 per barrel. US crude also rebounded to $59.62 per barrel.

Dollar Strengthens; Gold and Silver Rally

Currency markets showed the dollar strengthening against the yen, trading at ¥152.22 versus ¥151.89 late Friday, while the euro edged down to $1.1605.

In precious metals, gold extended its rally, rising nearly 1% to revisit recent highs around $4,060 per ounce. The renewed strength came after a brief dip triggered by profit-taking, as investors flocked back to safe-haven assets amid escalating US–China tensions.

The dispute over rare earth exports underscored the unpredictability of trade policy and highlighted Beijing’s willingness to use strategic resources as leverage. As a result, gold once again emerged as a key beneficiary, attracting fresh demand ahead of the European session.

Silver followed suit, surging more than 2% to $51.54 after breaking above the $50 threshold, signalling continued bullish momentum.

Outlook​

As the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies intensifies, market volatility is expected to remain elevated. Investors are likely to monitor diplomatic developments closely, while safe-haven assets like gold could continue to benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff threats.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 14th October 2025.

Gold Breaks $4,000; Bitcoin Falls as US-China Trade Tensions Escalate.

Gold Hits Fresh Record Highs Amid Haven Demand​

Gold continues to make fresh record highs. Trade jitters flared up again at the end of last week, as Trump threatened China with additional tariffs, which weighed on oil and boosted haven flows. Oil prices, which tried to stabilize following the cautious OPEC+ output hike, sold off again on Friday.

Gold has been on a consistent upward trend since the beginning of the year, when it traded at around $2,669 per ounce. This remarkable rally has been underpinned by strong central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker US dollar, which enhances gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies.

Gold continues to make fresh record highs in this environment. The precious metal cleared the $4,000 mark last week and is trading above $4,080 per ounce. Central bank demand continues to underpin prices as investors bet on additional rate cuts, while eying geopolitical developments. US President Trump said Sunday that the Gaza war has ended, but tensions in the Middle East have not evaporated and at the same time, the war between Russia and Ukraine may be heating up as the US signals increased support.

Some are expecting gold to rise as high as $5,000 in this environment. Others, however, have warned that the gold bubble is set to burst eventually, arguing that investors should be increasingly cautious and central banks should sell as much as possible.

Crypto rout: Bitcoin tumbles as US-China trade jitters sap risk appetite​

Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, cutting short a recent rebound as markets remained largely risk-averse amid heightened concerns over a renewed trade war between the US and China. Broader crypto markets also moved in a flat-to-low range, after suffering heavy losses in recent sessions. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China wiped out some $500 billion in crypto market capitalisation in a matter of days.

Bitcoin was at the heart of this rout, tumbling sharply from a $126,000 record high hit last week. The world’s biggest crypto fell 1% to $113,547.0. Demand for the world’s largest crypto was largely supplanted by demand for safe havens such as gold, which hit another record high on Tuesday.

While crypto markets did take some support from US officials offering conciliatory comments on China, risk appetite still remained largely off.

Bitcoin rebound short-lived as US-China jitters spark crypto rout​

Bitcoin slumped as low as $103,800 over the weekend after Trump’s initial announcement of additional tariffs against China. While the world’s biggest crypto did recover as high as $115,000 on Monday, it cut short this rebound amid few signs of improving US-China relations.

Beijing said on Tuesday that it was ready to “fight to the end” in a trade war with Washington, while also accusing the US of discriminatory practices. The latest trade tensions, which threaten to undermine an earlier framework deal between Washington and Beijing, largely stem from US ire over China introducing stricter export controls on its rare earth industry.

China said on Tuesday that the controls were justified, and signaled little intent to acquiesce to US demands. While Beijing did confirm that working-level talks were ongoing with Washington, it warned against the imposition of more trade tariffs.

Broader crypto price action​

Broader crypto prices mostly moved in a flat-to-low range, as risk appetite showed few signs of improving.

• Ether fell 0.4% to $4,116.56, after falling as low as $3,400 over the weekend.
• XRP fell 0.6% and remained pinned below $3.0.
• Solana and Cardano clocked some strength, rising 4.8% and 1.1% respectively.
• Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 0.7%, while $TRUMP rose 2%.

Beyond trade tensions, crypto markets were also grappling with increasing doubts over corporate treasury strategies, especially in Bitcoin.

Metals and base metals​

Silver outperformed today and also hit a fresh record high, with private investment flows and haven demand keeping prices underpinned. Uncertainty is likely to add to volatility near term, especially as metals look overbought on a technical level. However, geopolitical tensions are likely to keep haven demand underpinned and put a floor under prices at least for now.

Platinum and palladium also rallied today, and copper jumped nearly 5% after selling off on Friday in the wake of Trump’s China tariff threat. The President seemed to soften his stance over the weekend and signalled openness to meet with President Xi Jinping later this month, which helped to revive demand expectations. Ongoing mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia meanwhile are keeping a lid on the supply outlook.

Oil and trade tensions​

Meanwhile, China unveiled sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies, which some saw as an attempt to boost Beijing's leverage in talks with the US. The US in turn has been on a stockpiling spree.

Oil prices tried to stabilize last week, after OPEC+ producers announced a smaller than anticipated output boost for next month. Short-term supply jitters added support, amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and reports that the US has been helping Kiev to mount long-range strikes. US President Trump also suggested that Ukraine may get Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia. Meanwhile, the US announced further sanctions targeted at Iran's petroleum exports.

The sanctions included an oil terminal in Shandong, which dealt a blow to Chinese refining giant Sinopec and is set to complicate US-China relations. On Friday, Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China imports, which rekindled tariff jitters and saw oil prices selling off in tandem with stocks. Markets stabilised as US officials seemed to open a door to a possible deal with China and the US President wrote on Truth Social: "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!"

Oil prices bounced as a result, but for now the WTI contract continues to trade slightly below USD 60 per barrel after hitting a five-month low on Friday. Prices remain above this year's low from May, but are around -19% below the levels seen a year ago. Forecasts are projecting a sizable supply overhang for next year, and short-term supply jitters may only slow but not halt the longer-term downtrend, especially as tariff uncertainty will keep a lid on demand expectations.

OPEC+ outlook and market structure​

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that President Donald Trump still intends to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, as Washington and Beijing seek to ease escalating trade tensions over tariffs and export restrictions.

Market sentiment has been strained following recent developments, including China’s decision to broaden export controls on rare earth elements and Trump’s warning of potential 100% tariffs and new software export limits starting November 1.

Adding to the strain, Beijing announced on Tuesday that it would impose sanctions on five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Meanwhile, both the US and China are preparing to introduce additional port fees on ocean carriers transporting goods ranging from consumer products to crude oil.

In energy markets, front-month US crude futures ended Monday at their narrowest premium since January 2024 over the seven-month contract. This narrowing backwardation indicates near-term supply is perceived to be ample. In its monthly report, OPEC and allies including Russia projected that the oil market's supply shortfall would shrink in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ alliance proceeds with planned output increases.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 15th October 2025.

Federal Reserve Turns Dovish. BOE to Follow?

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis​

Despite the Pound’s decline on Tuesday, the currency looks to rebound today due to the weakening of the US Dollar. The GBPUSD was trading at its lowest price since August 1st before rebounding due to the Federal Reserve’s comments.

Despite the recent bullish price movement, the exchange rate has risen to a resistance level which has triggered a decline in the past days. In addition to this, on a 2-hour timeframe the price remains level with the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. If we switch over to a 3-minute timeframe, the price of the GBPUSD trades above the 200-period SMA but is failing to pass the swing high from earlier in the morning.

GBPUSD 2-Hour Chart

For this reason, the GBPUSD is close to obtaining bullish signals from technical analysis but is still witnessing conflicting data. This week the performance of the Pound against the whole currency market has been neutral. Currently the GBP index is trading 0.20% lower. The main cause for concern for the British Pound is the lack of economic growth and the recent poor employment data which we can see here.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis​

The USDJPY is gaining bullish momentum as the US session edges closer, but remains lower than the day’s open price. This is due to the Yen’s strong performance during this morning’s Asian session.

Even with the slight rise in recent hours, the USDJPY continues to form lower highs and lower lows. In addition to this, the USDJPY is trading below the main Moving Averages on the 2-hour chart and below 50.00 on the RSI. This provides a slight bearish bias. Bearish signals from price action are likely to strengthen when the price falls below 151.186. The next support level can be seen at 149.293, while the resistance level can be seen at 153.235.

Traders should also note that according to experts, a price above 150.00 increases the possibility of the Japanese Federal Government intervention. The government previously intervened in April 2024.

Bank of England​

Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have taken a dovish tone over the past 24-hours due to concerns over growth and employment.

Bank of England committee member, Alan Taylor, advises that the UK economy is at a higher risk of a ‘bumpy landing’. Economists expect a slightly more dovish Central Bank. Mr Alan Taylor also tells journalists that the downside risk to the economy from rising unemployment and weak demand is greater than wage-led inflation.

Federal Reserve​

One of the main price drivers pushing the US Dollar lower is the latest comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman. The Fed Chairman advises that the economy remains resilient, but employment shows signs of pressure and weakness. Due to this, he supports further rate cuts but will remain data-dependent.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency due to pressure from the Fed’s recent dovish comments. Possibilities for two rate cuts for 2025 have risen from 79% to 95%.

Key Takeaways:​

• GBPUSD rebounded after Fed comments but faces resistance and conflicting technical signals near key moving averages.
• USDJPY shows bearish bias with lower highs/lows and remains below key averages; risk of government intervention above 150.00.
• Bank of England adopts a dovish stance amid weak growth and rising unemployment concerns.
• The Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts in 2025, weakening the US Dollar further.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 23rd October 2025.

Global Markets Mixed as Earnings, Sanctions, and Inflation Data Dominate Investor Focus.

Global markets were mixed on Thursday as traders weighed a wave of corporate earnings, escalating sanctions on Russian oil producers, and rising anticipation for key US inflation data later this week.

Wall Street Futures Struggle for Direction​

US stock futures were steady to mixed as investors assessed the latest third-quarter earnings. Contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM=F) hovered slightly below the flat line, while S&P 500 (ES=F) futures rose 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) futures gained around 0.3%.

Tesla (TSLA) shares slipped more than 3.5% after posting uneven quarterly results, marking the start of the “Magnificent Seven” earnings season. IBM (IBM) also fell by about 6.5%, as its strong profits were offset by weaker-than-expected software revenue.

Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming results from T-Mobile (TMUS) and Blackstone (BX) before the market opens, followed by Intel (INTC) after the bell.

Oil Prices Surge After New US Sanctions on Russia​

Oil markets rallied sharply after the United States imposed sanctions on Russia’s largest crude producers, Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, in a bid to increase pressure on Moscow to negotiate an end to its war in Ukraine.

Brent crude surged by as much as 3.9%, trading near $65 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) advanced towards $61. The sanctions, announced by President Donald Trump, marked a significant policy reversal just days after he signalled plans to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING Groep NV in Singapore, the penalties “mark a shift in President Trump’s approach to Russia and open the door for tougher sanctions down the road, which could ultimately impact Russian oil flows.”

The move has already unsettled key buyers. Senior refinery executives in India-one of the largest importers of Russian crude-said the restrictions would make it nearly impossible to continue purchases. Trump also revealed plans to speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping about Beijing’s continued imports of Russian oil during an upcoming meeting in South Korea.

The US leader added that India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, had assured him the country would begin winding down its Russian crude purchases. Both India and China have become the largest buyers of Russian oil since the invasion of Ukraine, stepping in as Western nations reduced imports.

Last week, the UK also expanded its sanctions to include two Chinese energy firms involved in handling Russian oil, alongside measures against Rosneft and Lukoil.

The sanctions pushed energy markets higher on Thursday, with WTI settling $2.31 higher at $60.81 per barrel and Brent crude up $2.38 to $64.97.

Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Lower​

Across Asia, markets mirrored Wall Street’s weakness as investors digested the sanctions and awaited fresh economic guidance from China.

In Beijing, Communist Party leaders concluded a key meeting that will define policy priorities for the next five years, while in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index edged 0.2% lower to 25,738.00. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.7% to 3,886.19 following reports that Washington may tighten export restrictions on products developed using US software.

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped 1.3% to 48,683.84, weighed down by reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is preparing a stimulus package exceeding ¥14 trillion (approximately $92 billion). SoftBank Group shares sank more than 4% after announcing plans to issue US dollar and euro-denominated bonds to fund its artificial intelligence investments.

Takaichi’s preference for maintaining near-zero interest rates contributed to a weaker yen, which slipped to ¥152.37 per US dollar from ¥151.94 previously.

Elsewhere, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.9% to 3,849.87, Taiwan’s Taiex slipped 0.4%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.1%. In contrast, India’s Sensex climbed 0.8%.

Debt, Inflation, and Fed Policy in Focus​

In the US, attention is turning to macroeconomic risks and fiscal concerns. The September consumer inflation report, delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, is now expected on Friday. With official data releases disrupted, the reading is viewed as a key indicator ahead of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting next week, where markets remain divided on the likelihood of another quarter-point rate cut.

Meanwhile, the US national debt surpassed $38 trillion, the fastest $1 trillion increase outside the pandemic period. Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model warned that sustained debt growth could fuel inflation and erode consumer purchasing power. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) added that rising debt could lead to higher borrowing costs, lower wages, and push prices for goods and services even higher.

Outlook: Volatility Set to Intensify​

With corporate earnings, oil sanctions, and inflation data all dominating the headlines, investors are bracing for heightened volatility through to the end of the week. As the Federal Reserve, energy markets, and global policymakers navigate tightening conditions, traders will be closely watching how these factors shape the global economic outlook heading into the final months of 2025.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 24th October 2025.

Global Markets Climb on Trade Hopes, Earnings Boost, and Inflation Signals.

Global equity markets enjoyed a broad advance, as favourable earnings reports, easing trade tensions and evolving economic data headlines combined to lift investor sentiment.

Trade Truce Hopes Spur Asian Gains​

Asian share markets rose on Friday after the White House confirmed that Donald Trump will meet with Xi Jinping next week, a move that helped ease fears of a full-scale US-China trade war.
Chinese and Hong Kong benchmarks climbed, with tech-heavy indices gaining ground after a major policy meeting wrapped up without significant shifts.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rebounded strongly, aided by technology stocks and the favourable trade-signal environment. South Korea’s Kospi surged to a fresh record on the back of the same optimism.
In contrast, Australia’s markets were relatively flat after data showed the manufacturing sector had slipped into contraction (PMI 49.7 in October versus 51.4 in September).

US Earnings Drive Risk Appetite​

Earnings from major US firms provided another key tailwind. The chemical manufacturer Dow Inc. jumped about 12.9% after reporting strong earnings, while Las Vegas Sands rallied roughly 12.4% following better-than-expected profits and revenue. Meanwhile, Tesla Inc. gained 2.3% despite a profit miss, supported by stronger-than-expected quarterly revenue growth. With the S&P 500 having risen around 35% since April, investors are increasingly focused on whether companies can deliver profits that justify such elevated valuations.

Inflation and Commodities: Mixed Signals​

In Japan, core consumer inflation rose to 2.9% year on year in September (up from 2.7% in August), underscoring persistent price pressures. Still, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is widely expected to maintain rates, given Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s preference for low borrowing costs.
Oil prices jumped roughly 5.5% amid new US sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, contributing to global energy sector gains.
Gold saw a slight pullback, slipping around 0.4%, while the US dollar rose modestly against the yen and the euro.
Yields on US Treasuries also edged higher ahead of a key inflation report, signalling some caution despite the upbeat tone in equities.

What It All Means​

• The confirmation of the Trump-Xi meeting has sparked a relief rally in markets, as traders view even progress towards a deal more favourably than a stalemate.
• Strong corporate earnings help validate market valuations and boost risk appetite, but the bar remains high moving forward.
• Inflation data and central-bank policy remain key watchpoints. Even though Japan’s inflation is above target, the BOJ is likely to hold off on tightening unless wage growth becomes more robust.
• Mixed manufacturing signals, such as Australia’s contraction in factory activity, underscore that global growth risks persist.
• Continued sanctions and geopolitical developments (e.g., in energy) mean commodity and currency markets may continue influencing market sentiment.
  

Outlook for Traders & Investors​

• Monitor the upcoming US inflation print: disappointing data could dampen risk appetite or shift central bank expectations.
• Watch earnings from other major US companies to assess whether the profit cycle remains intact.
• In Asia, keeping tabs on how the Trump-Xi meeting translates into concrete policy or trade progress, markets may react strongly to any de-escalation or further friction.
• For FX and commodity traders, stay alert to movements in the dollar, yen, crude oil and gold, these continue to act as sentiment barometers.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 27th October 2025.

The Nikkei225 Soars as Takaichi’s Policies and Trade Truce Boost Investor Optimism.

On Monday, the Nikkei225 rose above 50,000 for the first time in its history driven by investor optimism. The Nikkei225 is the best-performing index of 2025 so far, having risen 28.65%. The Nikkei225 is currently trading with gains 9% higher than the DAX, the second best-performing index of 2025. However, the Japanese Yen is showing the opposite trend, so what is driving these key market movements?

Japan and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi​

Sanae Takaichi officially became Prime Minister on 21 October. Mrs Takaichi is a firm believer in expansionary fiscal policy despite being a conservative. A key issue for Japan is its gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate which is only 0.1%. The growth rate has been on a downward trajectory since the 1970s and continues to pose a challenge for Japan. However, many investors believe Takaichi has the boldness needed to reverse these trends.

She plans to roll out targeted fiscal stimulus, supporting key industries such as artificial intelligence (AI) and semiconductors, removing the provisional gasoline tax, and offering winter utility subsidies. In addition to this, the new Prime Minister is looking to strengthen ties with China and regional economies, as well as expand Japan’s Self-Defence Forces for the first time since the Second World War.

Many economists believe these measures are likely to stimulate economic growth and boost Japanese companies. These moves are also likely to weaken the negative impact of the Bank of Japan’s interest rate increases. For this reason, demand for the Nikkei225 is significantly increasing and is on track to record its strongest year-on-year performance since 2013.

NIKKEI225: 20-Year Performance (YoY)

Inflation, Trade And Investor Sentiment​

The US and China have agreed to pause plans to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. At the same time, China will delay implementing stricter export controls on rare earths bound for the US. Another element of the agreement is that China will resume purchases of US soybeans and other agricultural products. Previously, this trade had almost come to a standstill.

The trade agreements made between President Trump and Xi had a positive impact not only on the Nikkei225 but also across the global equity markets. All indices are trading higher, while the VIX has fallen by 4%. The decline in the VIX highlights the market’s renewed “risk-on” sentiment.

Lastly, global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings released on Friday, alongside lower US inflation data, supported global demand. Germany, the UK and the US all saw their PMI figures rise above expectations. In addition to this, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose from 2.9% to 3.00% (the forecast has been for 3.1%). As inflation came in lower than expected, investors now anticipate more frequent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Bank of Japan and The Japanese Yen​

The Japanese Yen remains the worst-performing currency. This is primarily due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates as much as previously anticipated. In addition to this, Japan’s expansionary fiscal policy is fuelling concerns over the country’s high debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the weaker Japanese Yen is making the Nikkei225 more attractive to foreign investors.

Current expectations are that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged on Thursday. A pause would likely support the Nikkei225, but traders will continue to monitor price action for signals of potential trends ahead.

Nikkei225 Daily Chart

The index is currently trading above the 75-Period Moving Average and 100-Period moving averages. In addition to this, the price is showing a buy signal on the RSI, while swings continue to form higher highs above previous key levels. As a result, the Nikkei225 (JPN225) maintains a bullish bias. However, traders should note that this could shift in the short-term if the price falls below 49,693.50.

Key Takeaways:​

• The Nikkei225 hit 50,000 for the first time, making it 2025’s best-performing global index.
• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s pro-growth fiscal policies have boosted investor confidence and market optimism.
• The US–China trade truce lifted global markets, supporting bullish trends and strengthening risk appetite.
• A weaker yen continues to support Japanese stocks but raises concerns over Japan’s rising debt levels.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 28th October 2025.

Market Confidence Sinks Gold, But Will It Continue?

Gold prices continue to decline for a second consecutive week, now trading 10% lower than their previous high. The key bearish drivers for gold are the reduced safe haven demand and the stronger US Dollar. However, traders are evaluating how low the price will fall before losing momentum.

Investors are closely watching two major events this week: the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday at 20:00 (GMT+2) and a high-profile meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC summit in Seoul later in the week. These events are expected to set the tone for global markets, influencing currency movements, bond yields, and risk sentiment. As a result, these events are having a strong influence on Gold prices.

Most economists anticipate that, given the recent signs of labour market cooling and moderate inflation, which came in at 3.0% in September, slightly below expectations of 3.1%. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%. Policymakers are also expected to signal a continued ‘dovish’ stance into December, emphasising flexibility and support for economic stability. The move would mark another step toward easing monetary conditions amid slowing growth momentum.

However, traders should note that increasing interest rates are fully priced into Gold according to analysts. As a result, the effect of interest rates is significantly lower than in previous weeks. Experts advise that a rate cut for January is not priced into the market. According to the FedWatch Tool, there is a 48% chance of a rate cut in January. If this increases, Gold may attempt a further bullish increase.

Meanwhile, optimism is growing around the upcoming US–China talks. Chinese representative Li Chengang confirmed that preliminary agreements have been reached on several key areas, including exports, transport fees, and curbing illegal fentanyl production. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the threat of 100% import tariffs has been lifted, while President Trump announced his intention to sign the trade deal.

Analysts suggest that China may delay stricter export controls on rare earth metals for at least a year, while Washington could roll back some tariffs, paving the way for continued negotiations on the broader agreement. For this reason, the trade tensions are no longer adding to Gold’s previous bullish trend.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart

According to the 200-period Moving Average, the price of Gold has now declined enough to move into range-bound trading conditions. However, momentum-based technical indicators continue to point towards a continued decline. The bearish signal is likely to remain in place for as long as the price remains below $4,019.00. Lastly, technical analysts also note that the price is trading at the support level from October 9th.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• Gold extends losses: Prices have dropped for a second week, now 10% below recent highs amid weaker safe-haven demand and a stronger U.S. dollar.
• Focus on key events: The Fed’s rate decision and Trump–Xi meeting are driving market sentiment and influencing gold’s direction.
• The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates tomorrow and again in December: analysts expect a 0.25% rate cut.
• Bearish trend persists: Gold trades below its 200-period moving average, with momentum still pointing lower unless it breaks above $4,019.00.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 29th October 2025.

NASDAQ Forecast: Earnings And Market Drivers.

The NASDAQ climbed to a new all-time high on Tuesday and surpassed the DAX for the first time in 2025. The NASDAQ is now the second best-performing index of the year so far, behind the Nikkei225 and slightly ahead of the German DAX. The bullish price movement gathered momentum after NVIDIA’s CEO expressed optimism about the artificial intelligence (AI) and Technology sectors.

The trend was also fuelled by expectations of easing US–China trade tensions. Optimism grew further ahead of major quarterly earnings reports from leading technology companies.

Market participants are focusing on the quarterly earnings reports from the ‘Magnificent-Seven’. After the market closes, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will all release theirearnings reports. The most influential report will be from Microsoft and Alphabet due to holding a higher weight. Together, the three companies hold a weight of 25%.

• Microsoft - Rose +1.98% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $3.65
• Alphabet - Fell .67% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $2.26
• Meta - Rose +0.08% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $6.61

If all three companies exceed expectations and provide upbeat guidance for the next quarter, the NASDAQ is likely to maintain its bullish momentum. Lastly, on Thursday investors will shift their attention to earnings reports from Apple and Amazon, which are also part of the ‘Magnificent-Seven’.

One of the reasons why Microsoft has seen stronger gains over the past 24 hours is the new agreement with OpenAI. The new agreement allows the ChatGPT creator to shift from its non-profit origins and prepare for a potential IPO to fund Sam Altman’s ambitious AI and data centre plans. Under the new structure, OpenAI will operate as a public benefit corporation still overseen by a nonprofit. Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely route to raise the funds needed for advanced AI development.

Microsoft stocks are also rising a further 0.50% during this morning’s pre-market trading session.

Investor sentiment has improved significantly with President Trump’s Asia tour, his agreement with China, and the upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, another key price driver has been NASDAQ’s most influential stock: NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, told journalists that he has no concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Mr Huang stated that NVIDIA's latest chips remain strong and on schedule. He also revealed that, due to US export controls, NVIDIA’s market share in China has dropped from 95% to effectively zero, remarking ‘we are 100 % out of China.’

NVIDIA’s stocks rose 4.98% on Tuesday and have since gained a further 1.69% during this morning’s Asian Session. NVIDIA is due to release its quarterly earnings report on 19 November after the market closes. The stock has risen 45% so far in 2025.

Investors are focused on tonight’s US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% is widely expected to support a cooling labour market. With inflation steady at 3.0%, the Fed has room to ease policy, although uncertainty remains due to limited economic data. Markets will also watch for signals of another potential rate cut later this year and in January.

NASDAQ Daily Chart


The NASDAQ continues to form higher highs and higher lows following the classic bullish trend pattern. The index is also trading above the main trendlines as well as above the day’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Most momentum-based indicators continue to point towards further upward price movement.

However, investors should also be aware of the risks associated with the prices trading at all-time highs as well as a potential change in sentiment if earnings reports fail to meet expectations. A decline of more than 5% would suggest that the upward trend may be at risk.

• NASDAQ hits a new all-time high, surpassing the DAX and becoming 2025’s second-best-performing index behind the Nikkei 225.
• Tech optimism surges after NVIDIA’s CEO dismisses AI bubble fears, while Microsoft and OpenAI announce a major restructuring deal.
• Focus shifts to ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta expected to drive short-term NASDAQ momentum.
• The Federal Reserve meeting remains in focus, with a 25-basis-point rate cut expected and investors watching for signals of further easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.