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[HFM.]

Date: 3rd October 2025.

US Government Shutdown: Market Fallout, Dollar Outlook, and Gold’s Rally.

Investors Brace for Economic Fallout​

The United States government has officially entered its first shutdown in nearly seven years after lawmakers failed to agree on a funding bill. The development has unsettled global investors, with US equity futures slipping and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropping 0.1% after the midnight deadline passed.

Federal agencies have been ordered to suspend nonessential services, putting hundreds of thousands of employees on hold and creating uncertainty across vital public programs. Unlike past shutdowns that ended quickly, this standoff looks more severe and could inflict lasting damage on the US economy.

Labour Market and Economic Data Risks​

The most immediate challenge is the suspension of government data releases. Reports on jobless claims, factory orders, and September payrolls will not be published, depriving markets of key signals to assess economic growth and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.

“This shutdown could prove more disruptive than usual because of the heightened stakes leading into it,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.

Market Reactions So Far​

• Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1% and S&P 500 contracts dropped 0.8%.
• The 10-year Treasury yield rose one basis point to 4.16%.
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) jumped to 17.28, signalling higher risk aversion.

With stock valuations already stretched after a long bull run, analysts warn that any sharp downturn could trigger forced selling, amplifying losses.

Safe-Haven Demand: Gold, Treasuries, and Currencies​

If the shutdown drags on, investors may seek refuge in defensive assets:

• Gold prices have surged to record highs near $4,000, supported by dollar weakness.
• The Japanese yen and the euro could benefit further if the dollar continues to retreat.
• Long-dated Treasuries may attract buyers on expectations of weaker growth.

“Given high yields, US Treasuries remain attractive, and we advise clients sensitive to shutdown risk to increase exposure,” said Monica Guerra of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.

Sector-by-Sector Impact​

Defence: Defence giants such as RTX, L3Harris Technologies, and AeroVironment have benefited from strong federal spending. While analysts expect little direct impact, investor sentiment could cool. General Dynamics was recently upgraded to a “buy” on the view that any pullback may present an entry opportunity.

Government Services & Airlines

• Consulting firms like Booz Allen Hamilton, Leidos, and CACI International often see revenue delays during shutdowns.
• Airlines, which rely on government travel for up to 2% of annual revenue, could be hit harder. Reduced leisure travel by unpaid federal workers may further weaken the industry.

Cyclical Sectors: Industrials and financials are especially vulnerable if growth slows and unemployment rises. Caterpillar, Deere, and major banks like JPMorgan Chase may face volatility, while consumer-focused firms such as Affirm Holdings could see sharper swings.

Bloomberg Economics projects that 640,000 federal workers could be furloughed, pushing unemployment to 4.7%. Permanent job cuts, as threatened, may keep joblessness elevated even after operations resume.

Outlook: Volatility Ahead​

Historically, shutdowns have had limited long-term impact on Wall Street. On average, the S&P 500 has barely moved during the last 20 shutdowns. However, near-term volatility is expected, particularly if data releases are delayed.

Private reports, such as ISM manufacturing and services surveys, will likely gain importance for traders navigating uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 10th October 2025.

Stronger US Dollar Pressures Oil and Gold as Fed Divisions Deepen.

Oil prices significantly fell on Thursday after increasing in value throughout the month so far. The stronger price of the US Dollar is now harming the price of oil, as well as de-escalations in global conflicts. Is the Dollar’s current trend likely to continue, and what would that mean for commodities such as Oil?

US Dollar​

When it comes to the US Dollar, investors continue to price in the FOMC Meeting Minutes for September. The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, but policymakers were divided on the path ahead. However, the Meeting Minutes confirm several members of the committee supported further monetary easing, arguing that the risks of a weakening labour market outweigh inflation concerns and noting that recent White House tariff changes are unlikely to fuel price growth.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams said he would not oppose further rate reductions to support employment, but warned that if inflation remains well above the 2% target and proves difficult to contain, it could inflict serious harm on the US economy. Regardless of this, economists continue to believe the Federal Reserve will cut in October and most likely again in December. Currently, the lower interest rates are the largest risk and downward force for the US Dollar.

The upward price pressure is partially due to the US government shutdown, which is triggering a lower risk appetite. The latest development for the US Dollar is the currency swap between the US and the Central Bank of Argentina. The move is, in a sense, a bailout for the country, which has seen its GDP growth fall to -1.7%.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart


Investors should be cautious of the resistance level at 99.90 on the US Dollar Index. If the index rises above this level, it will be the highest the US Dollar has been since May.

Crude Oil​

Oil prices have risen recently due to the OPEC+ decision to raise output by only 137,000 barrels per day, well below analysts’ expectations of a 274,000–411,000 barrel increase. However, the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, which took effect yesterday, has limited further upside. Under the agreement, hostilities will end, Israel will partially withdraw troops from Gaza, and Hamas will release its hostages.

In addition to this, no further escalations have been made in Eastern Europe by Russia. As a result, the upward pressure in Oil prices has significantly fallen. In addition to this, the more expensive US Dollar also makes Oil and similar commodities less attractive for buyers.

Furthermore, Gold prices fell 2.80% on Thursday, mainly due to high profit-taking and the bullish US Dollar having a negative effect. The US Dollar is pressuring Gold prices due to the well-known inverse correlation between the two.

Key Takeaways:​

1. Oil prices fell as a stronger US Dollar and easing geopolitical tensions reduced upward momentum.
2. Fed minutes show officials divided on future cuts, but further easing remains likely this year.
3. The US Dollar strengthened amid safe-haven demand, government shutdown risks, and a new Argentina currency swap.
4. Gold dropped 2.8% as profit-taking and the Dollar’s rally pressured commodities across markets.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 13th October 2025.

Asian Stocks Fall as US–China Tensions Rise; Gold Nears $4,060.

Asian equities fell sharply on Monday after renewed trade frictions between Washington and Beijing disrupted the recent period of calm on Wall Street.

US markets ended last week lower as President Donald Trump threatened to escalate tariffs on Chinese goods in response to Beijing’s restrictions on rare earth exports, materials vital for industries ranging from consumer electronics to aerospace manufacturing.

Despite the turmoil, US futures rebounded, with S&P 500 contracts up 1.4% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures gaining 1%.

China’s latest trade data showed global exports rising 8.3% in September compared to a year earlier, the fastest pace in six months, as manufacturers shifted focus to non-US markets. However, exports to the United States plunged 27% year-on-year, underscoring the impact of ongoing trade disputes.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index slumped 2.2% to 25,700.07, while most other key regional markets also recorded losses exceeding 1%. The Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% to 3,889.50, South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.7% to 3,584.55, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 shed 0.8% to 8,882.80. Taiwan’s Taiex declined 1.4%, and India’s Sensex eased 0.4%. Japanese markets remained closed for a public holiday.

On Friday, US indices endured their steepest declines in months: the S&P 500 dropped 2.7% to 6,552.51, the Dow retreated 1.9% to 45,479.60, and the Nasdaq fell 3.6% to 22,204.43, signalling renewed concerns about the trade war’s escalation.

Trump, writing on Truth Social, criticised Beijing and hinted that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping might no longer take place, saying ‘there seems to be no reason’ to continue with the discussions.

Losses were widespread across the S&P 500, affecting nearly all sectors, from major technology firms such as Apple and Nvidia to smaller companies struggling with uncertainty over tariffs and global supply chains.

Equities were already vulnerable to a pullback following the S&P 500’s relentless 35% rally from its April low. Analysts have long argued that valuations have become overstretched, with stock prices rising far faster than corporate earnings, particularly in the AI sector, where some see parallels to the dot-com bubble of the early 2000s.

Meanwhile, bond yields fell as investors sought safety. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 4.05% from 4.14% on Thursday, following weak US consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan.

Oil markets also experienced significant swings. USOIL slid 4.2% to $58.90 per barrel on Friday, weighed down by reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a development that could ease concerns about potential supply disruptions. UKOIL fell 3.8% to $62.73 but recovered modestly early Monday to trade near $63.58 per barrel. US crude also rebounded to $59.62 per barrel.

Dollar Strengthens; Gold and Silver Rally

Currency markets showed the dollar strengthening against the yen, trading at ¥152.22 versus ¥151.89 late Friday, while the euro edged down to $1.1605.

In precious metals, gold extended its rally, rising nearly 1% to revisit recent highs around $4,060 per ounce. The renewed strength came after a brief dip triggered by profit-taking, as investors flocked back to safe-haven assets amid escalating US–China tensions.

The dispute over rare earth exports underscored the unpredictability of trade policy and highlighted Beijing’s willingness to use strategic resources as leverage. As a result, gold once again emerged as a key beneficiary, attracting fresh demand ahead of the European session.

Silver followed suit, surging more than 2% to $51.54 after breaking above the $50 threshold, signalling continued bullish momentum.

Outlook​

As the trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies intensifies, market volatility is expected to remain elevated. Investors are likely to monitor diplomatic developments closely, while safe-haven assets like gold could continue to benefit from geopolitical tensions and tariff threats.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 14th October 2025.

Gold Breaks $4,000; Bitcoin Falls as US-China Trade Tensions Escalate.

Gold Hits Fresh Record Highs Amid Haven Demand​

Gold continues to make fresh record highs. Trade jitters flared up again at the end of last week, as Trump threatened China with additional tariffs, which weighed on oil and boosted haven flows. Oil prices, which tried to stabilize following the cautious OPEC+ output hike, sold off again on Friday.

Gold has been on a consistent upward trend since the beginning of the year, when it traded at around $2,669 per ounce. This remarkable rally has been underpinned by strong central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, and a weaker US dollar, which enhances gold’s appeal for investors holding other currencies.

Gold continues to make fresh record highs in this environment. The precious metal cleared the $4,000 mark last week and is trading above $4,080 per ounce. Central bank demand continues to underpin prices as investors bet on additional rate cuts, while eying geopolitical developments. US President Trump said Sunday that the Gaza war has ended, but tensions in the Middle East have not evaporated and at the same time, the war between Russia and Ukraine may be heating up as the US signals increased support.

Some are expecting gold to rise as high as $5,000 in this environment. Others, however, have warned that the gold bubble is set to burst eventually, arguing that investors should be increasingly cautious and central banks should sell as much as possible.

Crypto rout: Bitcoin tumbles as US-China trade jitters sap risk appetite​

Bitcoin fell on Tuesday, cutting short a recent rebound as markets remained largely risk-averse amid heightened concerns over a renewed trade war between the US and China. Broader crypto markets also moved in a flat-to-low range, after suffering heavy losses in recent sessions. US President Donald Trump’s announcement of 100% tariffs on China wiped out some $500 billion in crypto market capitalisation in a matter of days.

Bitcoin was at the heart of this rout, tumbling sharply from a $126,000 record high hit last week. The world’s biggest crypto fell 1% to $113,547.0. Demand for the world’s largest crypto was largely supplanted by demand for safe havens such as gold, which hit another record high on Tuesday.

While crypto markets did take some support from US officials offering conciliatory comments on China, risk appetite still remained largely off.

Bitcoin rebound short-lived as US-China jitters spark crypto rout​

Bitcoin slumped as low as $103,800 over the weekend after Trump’s initial announcement of additional tariffs against China. While the world’s biggest crypto did recover as high as $115,000 on Monday, it cut short this rebound amid few signs of improving US-China relations.

Beijing said on Tuesday that it was ready to “fight to the end” in a trade war with Washington, while also accusing the US of discriminatory practices. The latest trade tensions, which threaten to undermine an earlier framework deal between Washington and Beijing, largely stem from US ire over China introducing stricter export controls on its rare earth industry.

China said on Tuesday that the controls were justified, and signaled little intent to acquiesce to US demands. While Beijing did confirm that working-level talks were ongoing with Washington, it warned against the imposition of more trade tariffs.

Broader crypto price action​

Broader crypto prices mostly moved in a flat-to-low range, as risk appetite showed few signs of improving.

• Ether fell 0.4% to $4,116.56, after falling as low as $3,400 over the weekend.
• XRP fell 0.6% and remained pinned below $3.0.
• Solana and Cardano clocked some strength, rising 4.8% and 1.1% respectively.
• Among memecoins, Dogecoin fell 0.7%, while $TRUMP rose 2%.

Beyond trade tensions, crypto markets were also grappling with increasing doubts over corporate treasury strategies, especially in Bitcoin.

Metals and base metals​

Silver outperformed today and also hit a fresh record high, with private investment flows and haven demand keeping prices underpinned. Uncertainty is likely to add to volatility near term, especially as metals look overbought on a technical level. However, geopolitical tensions are likely to keep haven demand underpinned and put a floor under prices at least for now.

Platinum and palladium also rallied today, and copper jumped nearly 5% after selling off on Friday in the wake of Trump’s China tariff threat. The President seemed to soften his stance over the weekend and signalled openness to meet with President Xi Jinping later this month, which helped to revive demand expectations. Ongoing mine disruptions in Chile and Indonesia meanwhile are keeping a lid on the supply outlook.

Oil and trade tensions​

Meanwhile, China unveiled sweeping export controls on rare earths and related technologies, which some saw as an attempt to boost Beijing's leverage in talks with the US. The US in turn has been on a stockpiling spree.

Oil prices tried to stabilize last week, after OPEC+ producers announced a smaller than anticipated output boost for next month. Short-term supply jitters added support, amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, and reports that the US has been helping Kiev to mount long-range strikes. US President Trump also suggested that Ukraine may get Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia. Meanwhile, the US announced further sanctions targeted at Iran's petroleum exports.

The sanctions included an oil terminal in Shandong, which dealt a blow to Chinese refining giant Sinopec and is set to complicate US-China relations. On Friday, Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China imports, which rekindled tariff jitters and saw oil prices selling off in tandem with stocks. Markets stabilised as US officials seemed to open a door to a possible deal with China and the US President wrote on Truth Social: "Don't worry about China, it will all be fine!"

Oil prices bounced as a result, but for now the WTI contract continues to trade slightly below USD 60 per barrel after hitting a five-month low on Friday. Prices remain above this year's low from May, but are around -19% below the levels seen a year ago. Forecasts are projecting a sizable supply overhang for next year, and short-term supply jitters may only slow but not halt the longer-term downtrend, especially as tariff uncertainty will keep a lid on demand expectations.

OPEC+ outlook and market structure​

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed on Monday that President Donald Trump still intends to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month, as Washington and Beijing seek to ease escalating trade tensions over tariffs and export restrictions.

Market sentiment has been strained following recent developments, including China’s decision to broaden export controls on rare earth elements and Trump’s warning of potential 100% tariffs and new software export limits starting November 1.

Adding to the strain, Beijing announced on Tuesday that it would impose sanctions on five US-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean. Meanwhile, both the US and China are preparing to introduce additional port fees on ocean carriers transporting goods ranging from consumer products to crude oil.

In energy markets, front-month US crude futures ended Monday at their narrowest premium since January 2024 over the seven-month contract. This narrowing backwardation indicates near-term supply is perceived to be ample. In its monthly report, OPEC and allies including Russia projected that the oil market's supply shortfall would shrink in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ alliance proceeds with planned output increases.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 15th October 2025.

Federal Reserve Turns Dovish. BOE to Follow?

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis​

Despite the Pound’s decline on Tuesday, the currency looks to rebound today due to the weakening of the US Dollar. The GBPUSD was trading at its lowest price since August 1st before rebounding due to the Federal Reserve’s comments.

Despite the recent bullish price movement, the exchange rate has risen to a resistance level which has triggered a decline in the past days. In addition to this, on a 2-hour timeframe the price remains level with the 75-period EMA and 100-period SMA. If we switch over to a 3-minute timeframe, the price of the GBPUSD trades above the 200-period SMA but is failing to pass the swing high from earlier in the morning.

GBPUSD 2-Hour Chart

For this reason, the GBPUSD is close to obtaining bullish signals from technical analysis but is still witnessing conflicting data. This week the performance of the Pound against the whole currency market has been neutral. Currently the GBP index is trading 0.20% lower. The main cause for concern for the British Pound is the lack of economic growth and the recent poor employment data which we can see here.

USDJPY - Technical Analysis​

The USDJPY is gaining bullish momentum as the US session edges closer, but remains lower than the day’s open price. This is due to the Yen’s strong performance during this morning’s Asian session.

Even with the slight rise in recent hours, the USDJPY continues to form lower highs and lower lows. In addition to this, the USDJPY is trading below the main Moving Averages on the 2-hour chart and below 50.00 on the RSI. This provides a slight bearish bias. Bearish signals from price action are likely to strengthen when the price falls below 151.186. The next support level can be seen at 149.293, while the resistance level can be seen at 153.235.

Traders should also note that according to experts, a price above 150.00 increases the possibility of the Japanese Federal Government intervention. The government previously intervened in April 2024.

Bank of England​

Both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve have taken a dovish tone over the past 24-hours due to concerns over growth and employment.

Bank of England committee member, Alan Taylor, advises that the UK economy is at a higher risk of a ‘bumpy landing’. Economists expect a slightly more dovish Central Bank. Mr Alan Taylor also tells journalists that the downside risk to the economy from rising unemployment and weak demand is greater than wage-led inflation.

Federal Reserve​

One of the main price drivers pushing the US Dollar lower is the latest comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman. The Fed Chairman advises that the economy remains resilient, but employment shows signs of pressure and weakness. Due to this, he supports further rate cuts but will remain data-dependent.

The US Dollar is the worst-performing currency due to pressure from the Fed’s recent dovish comments. Possibilities for two rate cuts for 2025 have risen from 79% to 95%.

Key Takeaways:​

• GBPUSD rebounded after Fed comments but faces resistance and conflicting technical signals near key moving averages.
• USDJPY shows bearish bias with lower highs/lows and remains below key averages; risk of government intervention above 150.00.
• Bank of England adopts a dovish stance amid weak growth and rising unemployment concerns.
• The Federal Reserve signals potential rate cuts in 2025, weakening the US Dollar further.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.