HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 24th July 2025.

SNP500 Hits New Highs Backed by Strong Earnings and Trade Optimism.

The SNP500 again renews its all-time highs after finding support from Alphabet stocks, NVIDIA, JP Morgan and Broadcom. The SNP500 is now trading 8.40% higher in 2025, more or less matching the performance of the NASDAQ. The main driver of the current upward trend is recent quarterly earnings reports and the US-Japan trade deal.

Alphabet Quarterly Earnings Report​

There were both positive and negative data from Alphabet’s earnings report, but the stock rose 1.72% after market close. The quarterly report showed the company’s revenue and operating income rose 14%, cloud revenue 32% and the earnings per share rose 22% to $2.31. The figures continue to beat projections, which is one of the reasons why the stock has risen 1.72% and more than 14% over the past month.

Google Cloud revenue rose 32% to $13.6 billion, driven by strong growth in core GCP products, AI infrastructure, and generative AI solutions. AI remains a key driver, with Alphabet’s Gemini model now integrated across its cloud services and productivity tools. Although still behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT in user adoption, Gemini is helping Alphabet attract more enterprise clients.

In addition to this, the search figures also remain steady and within the projected range. According to the report, Google searches make up approximately 90% of the global searches. However, one of the main negatives from the report is AI spending compared to ROI (return on investment).

Alphabet reported $22.4 billion in capital spending, well above the $18.2 billion expected. It also raised its 2025 capex forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, highlighting its aggressive investment in data centres, AI chips, and infrastructure. If the return on investment from AI products read higher, experts believe the stock increase would have been higher than the current rise. Nonetheless, the increase continues to support the NASDAQ.

SNP500 Components and Stocks​

Of the SNP500’s most influential 15 stocks, 74% rose in value on Wednesday. In addition to this, the VIX index continues to decline, as does the Put and Call Ratio. All these factors provide strong buy signals for the SNP500 and stocks in general. The main stocks, bar Alphabet stocks, which are supporting the recent upward price movements, are NVIDIA, Broadcom and JP Morgan.

NVIDIA is the most influential stock for the SNP500, holding a weight of more than 7.00%. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.25% on Wednesday and a further 1.20% after market close. Broadcom stocks, which hold a weight of 2.33%, are one of the best-performing stocks on Thursday.

Both the technology sector and banking stocks continue to perform well while defensive stocks underperform due to the ‘risk-on’ appetite of the market. The higher investor sentiment is mainly being prompted by the US-Japan trade deal.

SNP500 Technical Analysis​

SNP500 5-Minute Chart


The SNP500 continues to form higher highs and higher lows, ensuring the wave ensuing continues to point to an upward trend. The price also remains above the trend-line, the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. However, the price is trading below the day’s VWAP, and order flow currently points towards limited buy demand.

For this reason, the outlook for the SNP500 remains bullish, but bullish momentum needs to be regained. European PMI reports from earlier this morning read positively, if the global PMI data continues to beat expectations, bullish momentum may gain speed. The price is also close to the 200-bar EMA, which can act as a support level. Traders will monitor if the price bounces off this level.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• The SNP500 hits new all-time highs, driven by Alphabet, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and JP Morgan.
• Alphabet’s earnings beat forecasts, with strong cloud growth and steady search performance boosting investor confidence.
• Capital spending rose to $22.4B, with AI investments raising concerns over return on investment.
• Technical Analysis remain bullish, but momentum needs to recover; global PMI data could reignite buying pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 25th July 2025.

Euro Strength Persists Amid ECB’s Temporary Policy Pause.

The best-performing currency of 2025 is the Euro and continues to gain after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. After the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the currency rose in value against all currencies. This also includes the Australian Dollar, which has seen the strongest gains this week so far. Why is the Euro witnessing strong gains despite multiple rate cuts, and what has the ECB said about the Euro’s strength?

The Euro's Gains In 2025​

The best-performing currencies in 2025 have been the Euro and Swiss Franc, which have both seen multiple rate cuts. Traditionally, currencies witnessing a dovish monetary policy tend to experience a weakening currency. So what is different here?

The main reasons for the bullish price movement fall into three categories:

• European Fiscal Policy
• Portfolio Flow and Euro Hedges
• US Dollar Weakness

These three factors are overpowering the negative impact of the lower interest rates. The European Union in 2025 has changed its fiscal policy rules related to borrowing and stimulus programs related to defence spending. Most investors deem this as a turn towards a fiscal expansionary policy while not triggering budget deficit concerns. One of the stimulus fund programs which are in the spotlight is the $500 billion German Fund, which aims to boost infrastructure and defence.

In addition to this, global investors are looking to spread the risk of overexposure to US equities. As a result, the natural alternatives are European stocks such as the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and CAC. As interest in these stocks grows, demand for the euro increases as well. Furthermore, companies still investing in US indices are now using the Euro to hedge against the risks of a weakening Dollar, which could result in gains from the original investment. Previously, due to Dollar's strength, this was not practised with US Equity Investments.

European Equity demand and euro-hedge positions are also increasing the demand for the Euro, and this also ties in with a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar is currently the weakest currency of 2025, declining more than 9.50%. The main concern for investors is the trade policy uncertainty and the worsening US fiscal deficit. Investors are turning to the Euro as an alternative.

The Euro Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Press Conference​

As European inflation is under control, the European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The main reason for the pause is uncertainty before the trade negotiations deadline on August 1st. Due to this, the ECB opted to keep the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%.

President Lagarde noted that although inflation expectations are ‘firmly anchored’ near 2%, there are risks in both directions. Investors also note that the ECB President voiced concern over the risk of the Euro becoming too expensive and its domino effect on the economy. Many experts believe this also indicates the ECB would like to cut by at least a further two occasions.

EURNZD - Technical Analysis and Major Gains​

EURNZD 4-Hour Chart


The Euro is witnessing its strongest gains against the New Zealand Dollar. The EURNZD fell to a key support level and also formed a double bottom. As a result, the Euro quickly gained bullish momentum and continued to rise on Friday.

The price of the EURNZD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. In addition to this, the exchange has been forming higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. Moreover, the exchange rate remains below the major resistance levels while maintaining momentum. Resistance levels can currently be seen at 1.95830 and 1.96475.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• The Euro is 2025's top-performing currency, gaining despite multiple ECB rate cuts.
• Strong European fiscal policy and stimulus programs are boosting investor confidence in the Euro.
• Investors are shifting to European equities and using the Euro to hedge against a weakening US Dollar.
• The ECB held rates at 2.15% but signalled more interest rate cuts in 2025.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 28th July 2025.

Markets Rally as US-EU Tariff Deal Calms Trade War Fears.

Financial markets and policymakers are cautiously optimistic that the feared economic fallout from Liberation Day may not fully materialise. Expectations of weak growth and surging inflation have started to ease, while optimism is building that trade tensions may be less damaging than anticipated. However, uncertainty remains elevated, with the August 1 tariff deadline fast approaching.

Although we’re not out of the woods yet, recent developments suggest the path forward could be less volatile. The range of potential tariff outcomes has narrowed, and active trade negotiations are gradually clearing the fog. Still, the global economy continues to navigate a ‘wait-and-see’ landscape, and this week’s calendar is packed with central bank meetings, critical data releases, earnings reports, and bond supply that will shape investor sentiment.

US-EU Trade Agreement: A Fragile Truce​

Over the weekend, the United States and the European Union struck a much-anticipated trade deal, agreeing to implement a 15% levy on a wide range of European exports, including autos. The outcome aligns closely with previous warnings from Brussels, offering a sense of relief that the standoff did not escalate further.

The EU had prepared countermeasures that may have targeted US services—an area where the US runs a strong surplus with the bloc—but those plans came too late to influence the negotiations. Critics argue that Brussels should have taken a firmer approach earlier in the process. However, in the end, EU officials prioritised swift resolution and market stability, which now appears to have been the right call—equity markets surged to four-month highs following the announcement.

As part of the agreement, the EU also pledged to purchase $750 billion in US energy products—a bold commitment considering the region’s recent pivot away from Russian gas toward US LNG. The bloc also committed to buying more US military equipment, in line with recent arms support agreements for Ukraine and NATO cooperation. Bloomberg Economics estimates that the new deal prevents the average effective US tariff rate from rising to 18%, keeping it at a more manageable 16%.

Market Reaction: Risk Appetite Improves​

Equity markets responded positively to the news. The Euro Stoxx 50 posted a 0.6% gain, while the DAX lagged slightly but still closed higher. Southern European indices like the MIB and IBEX led the region’s rally. US futures also pointed higher, buoyed by the improved trade outlook.

In Asia, Chinese stocks ended the day in the green, reflecting hopes that Washington and Beijing will extend their current trade truce. The Nikkei, however, slipped more than 1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down by 0.1%. In bond markets, eurozone yields declined as investors digested cautious commentary from ECB officials, while US Treasury yields ticked higher, with the 10-year rate approaching 4.40%.

FX Markets: Dollar Gains on Trade Optimism​

Currency markets reflected the surge in risk appetite and the recalibration of rate expectations. The US dollar gained 0.6% intraday, with the DXY index trading near 98.26. The euro weakened against the greenback, dropping 0.8% to 1.166, a move likely welcomed by European exporters and policymakers, as a softer currency helps offset some of the tariff impact.

Sterling outperformed earlier in the session but later pulled back, with GBPUSD correcting to 1.34. Meanwhile, the dollar gained ground against the franc and yen, rising 0.8% versus the Swiss franc and 0.5% against the yen, bringing USDJPY to 148.39.

Commodities: Oil Climbs, Gold Eases​

Oil prices moved higher in tandem with stocks, as the trade agreement boosted global demand expectations. WTI rose 1.3% to $66.01 per barrel, while Brent gained 1.2% to $69.28. Investors now await further developments in US-China talks scheduled later today, with hopes that both sides will agree to extend their current truce.

Gold prices were largely steady after a pre-weekend dip driven by stronger dollar sentiment and fading rate-cut bets. With the tariff deal confirmed and markets adjusting to tighter policy guidance, gold slipped modestly to $3,336.21 per ounce. Silver and copper also posted minor declines, down 0.15% and 0.28%, respectively. Copper prices, however, remain elevated ahead of a planned 50% tariff on US copper imports, set to take effect August 1.

ECB Stays on Hold, Keeps Options Open​

The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady, with President Lagarde signalling that policymakers will retain flexibility ahead of the September meeting. While inflation fears have receded slightly, Lagarde made it clear that rate cuts are not guaranteed and that future decisions will depend heavily on incoming economic data and geopolitical developments.

Her message was echoed by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who warned against assuming a rate cut is imminent. He emphasised that only clear signs of labour market weakness would justify further easing. While recent inflation data is reassuring, Kazimir stressed the importance of vigilance, particularly in light of potential supply chain disruptions that could reignite price pressures.

Outlook: Trade Relief Is Welcome, But Uncertainty Persists​

The US-EU trade agreement has provided temporary relief to markets, reducing tariff risks and boosting investor sentiment. Yet the broader picture remains uncertain. The August 1 deadline still looms, geopolitical tensions persist, and monetary policy paths are far from settled.

As the global economy enters a critical phase, traders and investors will continue to monitor developments in trade policy, central bank decisions, and macroeconomic data. For now, markets are breathing a little easier—but the long-term trajectory is still unfolding.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 29th July 2025.

All Eyes on the US: FOMC, Jobs Report, Earnings and Treasury Supply Dominate a Pivotal Week.

It’s shaping up to be one of the busiest weeks of the year for US markets, with virtually every major catalyst on the docket. From the FOMC decision and the July employment report to Treasury borrowing forecasts, corporate earnings, and key economic data releases, traders face a flood of information that could significantly sway bonds, equities, and the US dollar.

Yet, with so many variables in play, clarity may remain elusive. The overlapping crosscurrents could result in choppy and indecisive trading as investors attempt to digest the implications for monetary policy, growth, and inflation expectations heading into the final months of 2025.

Fed Expected to Hold Steady, But Watch for Dissent​

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and the consensus is firmly aligned around a pause in interest rates. Policymakers have consistently characterised the US economy as resilient and the labour market as solid—two factors that continue to justify patience on rate adjustments.

However, inflation has cooled further in recent months, and concerns over slowing global demand and one-time tariff impacts have emboldened some officials. Notably, Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman have expressed dovish leanings, calling for a rate cut at this meeting—a position that puts them at odds with the broader committee.

While FOMC dissents from governors are rare, both Waller and Bowman have already defied consensus in recent decisions. Waller previously opposed the decision to slow quantitative tightening, and Bowman dissented in September 2024, favouring a smaller 25 bp cut instead of the 50 bp move that was implemented. If both break ranks again this week, it would mark the first dual governor dissent since 1993, underscoring the growing debate within the Fed.

Chair Powell’s press conference on Wednesday will be closely watched for signals on whether the central bank is preparing to shift its tone ahead of the next meeting in September. Markets are already pricing in a near 50/50 chance of a rate cut that month.

July Jobs Report in Focus as Labour Market Remains Resilient​

The July nonfarm payrolls report, due Friday, will be a crucial input into the Fed’s September decision. Expectations point to a 120,000 job increase, a modest gain compared to previous months but still indicative of a labour market that is not deteriorating rapidly.

Private payrolls are projected to rise by 100,000 after a 74,000 gain in June, while factory jobs are expected to hold flat following a 7,000 loss. The unemployment rate is forecast to tick up to 4.2% from 4.1%, as the labour market adjusts to sector-specific layoffs and restructuring—particularly from companies undergoing so-called DOGE cuts, where severance packages have delayed the appearance of actual unemployment.

Wage growth is likely to continue at a moderate pace. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, with the annual rate ticking up slightly to 3.8% from 3.7%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours for a second straight month.

With another jobs report due before the September 16–17 FOMC meeting, the Fed will be watching closely to determine whether inflation remains subdued and whether labour market softness justifies a preemptive rate cut to stay ahead of a potential economic slowdown.

Markets Price in Fall Rate Cuts​

Despite the expected hold this week, Fed funds futures are leaning toward a September rate cut. The October contract implies roughly 27 basis points of easing, while the December contract reflects nearly 44 bps in total cuts by year-end.

That positioning underscores investor sensitivity to Powell’s tone on Wednesday. Any signs of softening—whether in the statement, the vote tally, or during the press conference—could fuel expectations for more aggressive easing later this year.

Although the Fed has been cautious not to overcommit, the combination of slowing inflation, moderating wage growth, and global uncertainties is making the case for flexibility stronger. Powell may not open the door wide to cuts just yet, but even a small rhetorical shift could move markets.

Other Key Catalysts: GDP, ISM, PCE, and Big Tech Earnings​

In addition to the Fed and labour market data, traders must also navigate a wave of critical releases. The second-quarter Advance GDP print, Employment Cost Index (ECI), PCE chain prices, and the ISM manufacturing report all offer insight into the strength of the US economy and inflation dynamics.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department is set to release Q3 and Q4 borrowing estimates, as well as details of the August refunding schedule—an event that could influence bond yields and market liquidity.

On the corporate front, earnings season continues in full swing, with Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft among the headline names reporting this week. The results from Big Tech could add volatility, especially if they reveal caution on consumer trends or AI-related capex.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Week for the Fed and Financial Markets​

With the FOMC meeting, labour data, inflation indicators, Treasury supply, and earnings all on the calendar, this week could shape market direction for weeks to come. The Fed is expected to hold, but the potential for rare dovish dissents adds an element of intrigue.

As the data rolls, and Powell addresses the press, traders will be seeking any clue on whether a September rate cut is truly on the table. Until then, expect volatility, uncertainty, and plenty of positioning as markets attempt to digest a whirlwind of economic signals.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 30th July 2025.

Global Markets Mixed as US-China Trade Talks Stall, Fed Holds Rates, and Euro Retreats.

US-China Trade Tensions Weigh on Investor Sentiment​

Financial markets opened the midweek session on a cautious note as the latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in Stockholm without a definitive agreement. Both countries indicated willingness to extend the current tariff truce set to expire on August 12, but no final decision has been reached.

China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng described the discussions as “constructive,” noting that both sides agreed to continue working toward an extension. Meanwhile, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed the topic was discussed but emphasised that any extension still requires approval from President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that although the dialogue was ‘fulsome,’ the Chinese may have ‘jumped the gun’ in announcing a pause. Strategic concerns such as China’s purchase of Iranian oil and export of dual-use technology to Russia were also raised.

Asian and US Markets React to Trade and Earnings Headwinds​

Asian equities responded with mixed movements. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slipped 1.2%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined marginally as losses in automakers like Toyota and Honda offset gains in tech stocks. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 and South Korea’s Kospi posted solid gains, while Taiwan’s Taiex and India’s Sensex advanced modestly.

On Wall Street, US stock indices edged lower as traders digested corporate earnings and growing global uncertainty. The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.4%. High-profile movers included SoFi Technologies, which surged 7.4%, and UPS, which plunged 9.2% on weaker-than-expected results. Health care giant UnitedHealth Group dropped 5.8% after disappointing earnings, while Novo Nordisk shed over 21% on lowered 2025 guidance for its Wegovy weight-loss drug.

Federal Reserve Maintains Rates Amid Inflation and Tariff Uncertainty​

The Federal Reserve began its much-anticipated policy meeting with expectations firmly anchored in a decision to keep interest rates steady. Despite renewed pressure from President Trump for cuts to stimulate the economy, policymakers are expected to wait for further data on inflation and the economic impact of tariffs.

Treasury yields slipped as investors adopted a risk-off approach. A report showing a decline in US job openings added to concerns over a potential economic slowdown, though consumer confidence data remained relatively stable. Traders now await official signals from the Fed’s statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.

Euro Rally Stalls After EU-US Tariff Deal​

The euro, once one of the strongest-performing currencies of 2025, has started to lose momentum. After hitting a four-year high of $1.1830, it fell sharply this week following the EU's decision to impose a 15% tariff on US imports. Though less severe than President Trump’s initial threats, the new rate is a sharp increase from pre-2025 levels.

Currently trading around $1.1554, the euro is on track for its first monthly loss this year, down nearly 2% in July. Analysts note that the rally had been driven by optimism over German fiscal stimulus and weakness in the US dollar. However, with a US-EU trade agreement reducing uncertainty and strong US earnings supporting the greenback, that trend has reversed.

Bruno Schneller of Erlen Capital Management commented that the euro is facing a “reality check,” as speculative positions near record highs are now being unwound. CFTC data shows euro bullish bets have reached $18.4 billion, the highest since December 2023.

Commodities: Copper and Oil Slide as China Stimulus Lacks Detail

Commodities markets were also under pressure. Copper prices dropped 0.2% to $9,782 per ton on the London Metal Exchange, while iron ore declined by 0.9% in Singapore. Early gains were erased after a policy update from China’s Politburo failed to provide clear fiscal or monetary stimulus plans, disappointing traders who had anticipated stronger support.

The global copper market has also been rattled by the Trump administration’s plan to impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1. With few details available, investors are bracing for widespread disruptions. Chile, the largest supplier of copper to the US, has requested exemptions, but US trade officials signalled that the measures would apply globally.

Meanwhile, oil prices remained relatively flat. US crude hovered at $69.20 per barrel, while Brent crude edged up to $71.70. The broader energy market remains range-bound as traders await further developments in both monetary policy and international trade.

Economic Data and Earnings to Drive Market Direction​

With the Fed expected to keep rates on hold, attention is shifting to upcoming economic reports and earnings data. The US is scheduled to release the latest Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, along with inflation readings that will offer deeper insight into the strength of the recovery. In Europe, economic growth figures will help shape expectations for further fiscal intervention.

Investors are also awaiting any update on whether the US and China will officially extend their tariff truce, a development that could ease trade tensions and support global risk sentiment.

What Traders Should Watch This Week​

As market volatility picks up, traders should monitor several key themes:

• The Federal Reserve’s rate decision and Powell’s press conference
• US jobs and inflation data
• Confirmation or collapse of the US-China tariff pause
• More Q2 earnings reports from major US corporations
• Reactions to the EU-US trade agreement
• Signals of additional stimulus from China

With global macro conditions in flux and central bank policies on pause, the coming days could define the next phase of market momentum in stocks, commodities, and currencies.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 31st July 2025.

BOJ Hints at Rate Hike with Inflation Upgrade, But Trump Tariffs Delay Clear Signal.

BOJ Moves Closer to Tightening, But Timing Still Murky

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept interest rates steady at 0.5% during its July policy meeting but raised its inflation forecasts more than expected, signalling that the era of ultra-accommodative monetary policy may be drawing to a close.

However, Governor Kazuo Ueda and the policy board refrained from giving any guidance on the timing of the next hike, citing ‘high uncertainties’ stemming from new US trade tariffs and domestic political instability.

Inflation Forecast Raised to 2.7%: What It Means​

In its quarterly economic outlook, the BOJ lifted its FY2025 inflation forecast to 2.7% from 2.2% and nudged up its projections for 2026 and 2027. The upgrades reflect ongoing price pressures, particularly from food and commodity imports. The BOJ’s upward revision of its price outlook does make it seem like a rate hike is coming closer. But Ueda reiterated that supply-side factors are driving inflation, suggesting policymakers are reluctant to respond with rate hikes unless wage growth and demand-driven inflation strengthen further.

Tariffs Keep Policy Outlook Cautious​

A major source of uncertainty is President Trump’s new wave of tariffs, including on Japanese autos and industrial goods. While Japan reached a partial agreement with the US to reduce some levies, the BOJ is waiting to see how these measures affect exports, corporate profits, and investment.

This caution was reflected in a softened tone in the BOJ’s risk assessment, shifting from ‘extremely high’ to simply ‘high’ trade-related uncertainties.

‘There have been positive developments in trade and other policies,’ the BOJ noted, but added that more data is needed to support a rate hike.

Political Backdrop: Another Obstacle​

Japan’s domestic political scene is adding further complexity. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition suffered a significant setback in the recent upper house elections. Some members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party are now pushing for leadership changes, which could impact fiscal policy and BOJ coordination.

Any rate move could become politically sensitive, especially if borrowing costs rise at a time when consumer inflation is already weighing on household budgets.

Market Reaction: Yen, Bonds, and Global Spillovers​

The yen initially rallied following the announcement, but lost ground as Ueda failed to provide forward guidance on rates. USDJPY remains near the psychologically important 150 level.

Meanwhile, Japanese government bond yields have inched higher, with the 10-year yield approaching 1%, spilling over into global bond markets. US Treasuries also saw upward pressure after Powell’s hawkish tone, tightening financial conditions worldwide.

What’s Next? Eyes on December​

While the BOJ appears to be preparing the ground for a year-end rate hike, the central bank is signalling that it will not move prematurely. The next few months will be critical as officials monitor wage growth, trade developments, and domestic demand. It is expected that the BOJ will act by December if growth holds up and the tariff impact is manageable.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.