HFMarkets: New market analysis services.

[HFM.]

Date: 24th July 2025.

SNP500 Hits New Highs Backed by Strong Earnings and Trade Optimism.

The SNP500 again renews its all-time highs after finding support from Alphabet stocks, NVIDIA, JP Morgan and Broadcom. The SNP500 is now trading 8.40% higher in 2025, more or less matching the performance of the NASDAQ. The main driver of the current upward trend is recent quarterly earnings reports and the US-Japan trade deal.

Alphabet Quarterly Earnings Report​

There were both positive and negative data from Alphabet’s earnings report, but the stock rose 1.72% after market close. The quarterly report showed the company’s revenue and operating income rose 14%, cloud revenue 32% and the earnings per share rose 22% to $2.31. The figures continue to beat projections, which is one of the reasons why the stock has risen 1.72% and more than 14% over the past month.

Google Cloud revenue rose 32% to $13.6 billion, driven by strong growth in core GCP products, AI infrastructure, and generative AI solutions. AI remains a key driver, with Alphabet’s Gemini model now integrated across its cloud services and productivity tools. Although still behind OpenAI’s ChatGPT in user adoption, Gemini is helping Alphabet attract more enterprise clients.

In addition to this, the search figures also remain steady and within the projected range. According to the report, Google searches make up approximately 90% of the global searches. However, one of the main negatives from the report is AI spending compared to ROI (return on investment).

Alphabet reported $22.4 billion in capital spending, well above the $18.2 billion expected. It also raised its 2025 capex forecast from $75 billion to $85 billion, highlighting its aggressive investment in data centres, AI chips, and infrastructure. If the return on investment from AI products read higher, experts believe the stock increase would have been higher than the current rise. Nonetheless, the increase continues to support the NASDAQ.

SNP500 Components and Stocks​

Of the SNP500’s most influential 15 stocks, 74% rose in value on Wednesday. In addition to this, the VIX index continues to decline, as does the Put and Call Ratio. All these factors provide strong buy signals for the SNP500 and stocks in general. The main stocks, bar Alphabet stocks, which are supporting the recent upward price movements, are NVIDIA, Broadcom and JP Morgan.

NVIDIA is the most influential stock for the SNP500, holding a weight of more than 7.00%. NVIDIA stocks rose 2.25% on Wednesday and a further 1.20% after market close. Broadcom stocks, which hold a weight of 2.33%, are one of the best-performing stocks on Thursday.

Both the technology sector and banking stocks continue to perform well while defensive stocks underperform due to the ‘risk-on’ appetite of the market. The higher investor sentiment is mainly being prompted by the US-Japan trade deal.

SNP500 Technical Analysis​

SNP500 5-Minute Chart


The SNP500 continues to form higher highs and higher lows, ensuring the wave ensuing continues to point to an upward trend. The price also remains above the trend-line, the 75-bar Exponential Moving Average and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. However, the price is trading below the day’s VWAP, and order flow currently points towards limited buy demand.

For this reason, the outlook for the SNP500 remains bullish, but bullish momentum needs to be regained. European PMI reports from earlier this morning read positively, if the global PMI data continues to beat expectations, bullish momentum may gain speed. The price is also close to the 200-bar EMA, which can act as a support level. Traders will monitor if the price bounces off this level.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• The SNP500 hits new all-time highs, driven by Alphabet, NVIDIA, Broadcom, and JP Morgan.
• Alphabet’s earnings beat forecasts, with strong cloud growth and steady search performance boosting investor confidence.
• Capital spending rose to $22.4B, with AI investments raising concerns over return on investment.
• Technical Analysis remain bullish, but momentum needs to recover; global PMI data could reignite buying pressure.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM.]

Date: 25th July 2025.

Euro Strength Persists Amid ECB’s Temporary Policy Pause.

The best-performing currency of 2025 is the Euro and continues to gain after the European Central Bank’s rate decision. After the ECB’s rate decision and press conference, the currency rose in value against all currencies. This also includes the Australian Dollar, which has seen the strongest gains this week so far. Why is the Euro witnessing strong gains despite multiple rate cuts, and what has the ECB said about the Euro’s strength?

The Euro's Gains In 2025​

The best-performing currencies in 2025 have been the Euro and Swiss Franc, which have both seen multiple rate cuts. Traditionally, currencies witnessing a dovish monetary policy tend to experience a weakening currency. So what is different here?

The main reasons for the bullish price movement fall into three categories:

• European Fiscal Policy
• Portfolio Flow and Euro Hedges
• US Dollar Weakness

These three factors are overpowering the negative impact of the lower interest rates. The European Union in 2025 has changed its fiscal policy rules related to borrowing and stimulus programs related to defence spending. Most investors deem this as a turn towards a fiscal expansionary policy while not triggering budget deficit concerns. One of the stimulus fund programs which are in the spotlight is the $500 billion German Fund, which aims to boost infrastructure and defence.

In addition to this, global investors are looking to spread the risk of overexposure to US equities. As a result, the natural alternatives are European stocks such as the DAX, Euro Stoxx 50 and CAC. As interest in these stocks grows, demand for the euro increases as well. Furthermore, companies still investing in US indices are now using the Euro to hedge against the risks of a weakening Dollar, which could result in gains from the original investment. Previously, due to Dollar's strength, this was not practised with US Equity Investments.

European Equity demand and euro-hedge positions are also increasing the demand for the Euro, and this also ties in with a weaker US Dollar. The US Dollar is currently the weakest currency of 2025, declining more than 9.50%. The main concern for investors is the trade policy uncertainty and the worsening US fiscal deficit. Investors are turning to the Euro as an alternative.

The Euro Central Bank’s Rate Decision and Press Conference​

As European inflation is under control, the European Central Bank is likely to continue cutting interest rates in 2025. The main reason for the pause is uncertainty before the trade negotiations deadline on August 1st. Due to this, the ECB opted to keep the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%.

President Lagarde noted that although inflation expectations are ‘firmly anchored’ near 2%, there are risks in both directions. Investors also note that the ECB President voiced concern over the risk of the Euro becoming too expensive and its domino effect on the economy. Many experts believe this also indicates the ECB would like to cut by at least a further two occasions.

EURNZD - Technical Analysis and Major Gains​

EURNZD 4-Hour Chart


The Euro is witnessing its strongest gains against the New Zealand Dollar. The EURNZD fell to a key support level and also formed a double bottom. As a result, the Euro quickly gained bullish momentum and continued to rise on Friday.

The price of the EURNZD is trading above the 75-bar EMA and in the ‘buy’ zone of most oscillators. In addition to this, the exchange has been forming higher highs and lows on smaller timeframes. Moreover, the exchange rate remains below the major resistance levels while maintaining momentum. Resistance levels can currently be seen at 1.95830 and 1.96475.

Key Takeaway Points:​

• The Euro is 2025's top-performing currency, gaining despite multiple ECB rate cuts.
• Strong European fiscal policy and stimulus programs are boosting investor confidence in the Euro.
• Investors are shifting to European equities and using the Euro to hedge against a weakening US Dollar.
• The ECB held rates at 2.15% but signalled more interest rate cuts in 2025.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.