Hey, Techies......Reality Check

ducati998

Experienced member
1,193 68
Just been looking at some data on this site regarding returns, after chump kinda suggested that daytrading would surpass returns available to investing.

Now these are not daytrades, they are swing trades, but I make no claims to the accuracy of the data, I am just utilising a source of data.

None of these are annualised, just the raw actualised returns.

January..........# of Trades taken 8............return 0.05%
February........# of trades taken 16...........return 3.61%
March...........................................12.......................3.70%
April..............................................9..........................dr(0.12%)
May...............................................7........................6.25%
June............................................18.......................3.88%

Total # trades............................70...........total return 2.90% on capital employed

Compared with a fundie approach;

Total # trades..............................2...........total return 36.5% on capital employed.

Food for thought
Cheers d998
 

chump

Senior member
2,212 274
Duc,
Interestingly I went to have a look at your original post to which the reply you allude was made...so that I could quote it to put your post above into context..but you have deleted it as I have have now deleted mine as your deletion left it looking as though I was starting this discussion.
You have taken both my post out of context and indeed you have misquoted me...I could be kind and say you did that accidentally,but I won't be..you have a problem..it's called 'blinkeritus'...horses suffer from it ...basically it means they are so f]rightened in the starting gate they have to wear blinkers so they cannot see anything but the space in front of them..they can't perform otherwise...you're the same about trading and FA blinkers...daytrading and TA must have given you a very unpleasant experience !
For accuracy I previously responded to one of your statements regarding the invariably and now becoming boring superioty of FA over TA and daytrading and virtually any other methodology...I simply said the determinant was not the methodology or the timeframe but the skill of the trader...above you manage to twist that to suit your own ends...
Again I will clarify what I said...take two traders with equal skill in employing their methododoly and there is no basis for suggesting the fundie will outperform the techie who is daytrading...if you had the first clue about business you would recognise this statement immediately to relate to the basic accounting concept of turning over your working capital which relates to working your capital has hard as you can.
That will now have to do from me on this subject ...discussing this issue with you is simply a lost cause and waste of time.

Edit to include your own words ....
"Actually I have become much more conservative in my assumption of risk, and it is the acknowledgement that I was very lucky as a daytrader, very lucky to not get wiped out, as I regularly swung for the fences, that I wised up.

I now have the reformed smoker mentality."....enough said I think
 
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ducati998

Experienced member
1,193 68
chump

Is this the quote you were referring to?

By trading "slower" you will make more money on aggregate than the vast majority of daytraders."...possibly true..but consider 'crap' fa trader takes longer to lose money than a 'crap' intraday trader..however they both end up inthe same place ...a skilled fa trader trading for the long term by the same token is not guaranteed to exceed the skilled intraday trader..

This is the one I was referring to inasmuch as it got me to thinking..................

You have taken both my post out of context and indeed you have misquoted me...I could be kind and say you did that accidentally,but I won't be..you have a problem..it's called 'blinkeritus'...horses suffer from it ...basically it means they are so f]rightened in the starting gate they have to wear blinkers so they cannot see anything but the space in front of them..they can't perform otherwise...you're the same about trading and FA blinkers...daytrading and TA must have given you a very unpleasant experience !

Everyone loves to question my past experiences, hell loads of my trades are posted, you can just go judge for yourself if you're remotely interested.

All prompted by a rather innocuous allusion,

after chump kinda suggested that daytrading would surpass returns available to investing.

You are obviously a little wound up.......................

if you had the first clue about business you would recognise this statement immediately to relate to the basic accounting concept of turning over your working capital which relates to working your capital has hard as you can.

And therefore, I have posted the numbers, which tell a rather interesting story. And that is;
70 Trades returns 2.90%
2 Trades returns 36.5%

So in regards to your accounting concept of turning over working capital, this has to be contrasted with the profit margin earned from that inventory turn.

That will now have to do from me on this subject ...discussing this issue with you is simply a lost cause and waste of time.

I guess you didn't like my numbers.
Cheers d998
 

roguetrader

Senior member
2,062 49
Everyone loves to question my past experiences, hell loads of my trades are posted, you can just go judge for yourself if you're remotely interested.
I wonder why?
Because you are a trader employing FA and extolling its virtues perhaps?
I seem to recall another trader employing FA and extolling it's virtues on this board, strangely he doesn't seem to attract anywhere near the same amount of controversy.
I'm afraid I'd have to agree with Chump, you may have posted successful trades on the site, that I have no issue with, but your attitude towards TA does not support a successful overall experience. You are a borderline fanatic on the subject. Your resentment of TA overshadows most of what you have to say on anything else which is a great shame.
 

barjon

Legendary member
10,604 1,742
ducati

your stats may stimulate debate but they are pretty meaningless and can hardly be offered as proof that the fundie approach rules ok :)

a truer test would be to take a single (or a portfolio) equity instrument selected by our expert fundie and see who can make most money out of it (or lose least) over selected periods of time and until such time as our expert fundie calls a halt because the instrument no longer meets his criteria.

i'm sure there's a techie out there who would rise to your challenge :cheesy: it would make an interesting thread.

good trading

jon
 

charliechan

Experienced member
1,008 119
ducati998 said:
Just been looking at some data on this site regarding returns, after chump kinda suggested that daytrading would surpass returns available to investing.

Now these are not daytrades, they are swing trades, but I make no claims to the accuracy of the data, I am just utilising a source of data.

None of these are annualised, just the raw actualised returns.

January..........# of Trades taken 8............return 0.05%
February........# of trades taken 16...........return 3.61%
March...........................................12.......................3.70%
April..............................................9..........................dr(0.12%)
May...............................................7........................6.25%
June............................................18.......................3.88%

Total # trades............................70...........total return 2.90% on capital employed

Compared with a fundie approach;

Total # trades..............................2...........total return 36.5% on capital employed.

Food for thought
Cheers d998


yes ducati, it is food for thought. thoughts on how deluded you seem to be to me.

i man whats the point? you say yourself the data probably isnt accurate, and you make the unforegivable mistake of assuming these lacklustre restults are typical of everyone who trades this way.

dear oh dear.
 
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neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
Baa !

:D Come on guys. Humour him. Remember it must be lonely for him out there where the nearest sentient being is a sheep.
 

danfreek

Active member
184 2
This makes no sense, how about comparing a newbie trader who has just learned how to draw a trend line and pitting him/her against Warren Buffet, I wonder who would do best, TA or FA???

Your stats prove nothing, you are assuming that a) every technical trader would make exactly those trades and b) that every fundamental trader would do the same, this is clearly wrong, neither method is better than the other, each trader has to find the method that they are most comfortable with, for you that's FA, not a problem, but don't dump on TA just because you don't find it suits your trading personality.
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
One mans' meat is anothers' poison?

danfreek said:
This makes no sense, how about comparing a newbie trader who has just learned how to draw a trend line and pitting him/her against Warren Buffet, I wonder who would do best, TA or FA???

Your stats prove nothing, you are assuming that a) every technical trader would make exactly those trades and b) that every fundamental trader would do the same, this is clearly wrong, neither method is better than the other, each trader has to find the method that they are most comfortable with, for you that's FA, not a problem, but don't dump on TA just because you don't find it suits your trading personality.

Excellent and logical reply Dan. Live and let live but I feel he feeds off confrontational posts with a view to gaining attention rather than to further the business of trading. :confused:
 

charliechan

Experienced member
1,008 119
his squirming response should be fun

any one care to think of what lousy excuse he will use this time?
 

FetteredChinos

Veteren member
3,897 40
i'd be surprised if he did actually. im sure Grant has a lot better things to do than deal with yet another petty squabbling match on here.

and people wonder why this site is viewed by some as heading down the pan...
 

mark_b_27

Junior member
21 4
barjon said:
your stats may stimulate debate but they are pretty meaningless and can hardly be offered as proof that the fundie approach rules ok :)

a truer test would be to take a single (or a portfolio) equity instrument selected by our expert fundie and see who can make most money out of it (or lose least) over selected periods of time and until such time as our expert fundie calls a halt because the instrument no longer meets his criteria.

jon

This is a very good point you've raised Jon.

There are obviously a variety of independently audited funds using pure FA, index funds, hedge funds using a variety of techniques, statistical arbitrage, convertible arbitrage, macro, event driven, market neutral, etc, etc.

As a result, there are pretty reliable measures of how these various trading systems perform over time.

Are there any funds out there that manage money by predominantly using technical analysis?
 

neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
Good point Mark

mark_b_27 said:
This is a very good point you've raised Jon.

There are obviously a variety of independently audited funds using pure FA, index funds, hedge funds using a variety of techniques, statistical arbitrage, convertible arbitrage, macro, event driven, market neutral, etc, etc.

As a result, there are pretty reliable measures of how these various trading systems perform over time.

Are there any funds out there that manage money by predominantly using technical analysis?

I will have a look around Mark and invite replies. Hopefully we will have some sort of comparism.

I've started a thread over at Elite Trader repeating Marks' question:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=788532#post788532
 
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neil

Legendary member
5,167 747
Two views from Elite Trader

neil said:
I will have a look around Mark and invite replies. Hopefully we will have some sort of comparism.

I've started a thread over at Elite Trader repeating Marks' question:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=788553#post788553
 
 
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