I am long BP - Gustav caused the evacuation of some rig personnel in the Gulf in the mid-week and the downgrading of the storm force only cost me 0.67% yesterday. Now it looks like its blowing up a bit towards official Hurricane status and headed towards the mainland, so I expect supply to be threatened at least, which is good for the share price, as long as not too much damage occurs to actual hardware. I had considered getting flat this pm to cap risk, but am OK to hold over the weekend with the poor news on the storm as the prospects for recovery in the share price beyond Gustav look good anyway. I'm not brave, its just that I know well that if the position blows up in my face money management will limit damage to superficial anyway.
TWI
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What a donkey market.
18:06 01Sep08 RTRS-FACTBOX-Gustav cuts US oil, gas, threatens commods
Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hurricane Gustav, the first big threat
to U.S. Gulf of Mexico energy and port infrastructure since
Katrina and Rita in 2005, made landfall west of New Orleans
Monday morning. [nN01292385]
The following outlines the impact on the energy sector:
*****HIGHLIGHTS*****
*96.3 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil output shut
*82.3 percent of Gulf of Mexico natgas output shut
*11 percent of U.S. refining capacity shut, another 14.6
percent of refining capacity at reduced rates
*No damage assessments yet
*US waives Louisiana gasoline standards, ready to release
emergency crude
*****CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS*****
*96.3 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico's 1.3 million barrels
per day crude output shut by Sunday morning, according to
U.S. government.
*82.3 percent of the Gulf's 7.4 billion cubic feet per day
natural gas output shut by Sunday morning.
*****REFINING*****
*Ten refineries with capacity of 1.9 million bpd shut
*Six refineries with capacity of 2.55 million bpd at
reduced rates
No wonder crude is OFF 4.5$!! Amazing, somebody wants it down badly. In the crude markets I have covered for many years this would not be happening, it is thin trading today and a short has clearly taken full advantage. Intervention? who knows.
18:06 01Sep08 RTRS-FACTBOX-Gustav cuts US oil, gas, threatens commods
Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hurricane Gustav, the first big threat
to U.S. Gulf of Mexico energy and port infrastructure since
Katrina and Rita in 2005, made landfall west of New Orleans
Monday morning. [nN01292385]
The following outlines the impact on the energy sector:
*****HIGHLIGHTS*****
*96.3 percent of Gulf of Mexico oil output shut
*82.3 percent of Gulf of Mexico natgas output shut
*11 percent of U.S. refining capacity shut, another 14.6
percent of refining capacity at reduced rates
*No damage assessments yet
*US waives Louisiana gasoline standards, ready to release
emergency crude
*****CRUDE OIL, NATURAL GAS*****
*96.3 percent of U.S. Gulf of Mexico's 1.3 million barrels
per day crude output shut by Sunday morning, according to
U.S. government.
*82.3 percent of the Gulf's 7.4 billion cubic feet per day
natural gas output shut by Sunday morning.
*****REFINING*****
*Ten refineries with capacity of 1.9 million bpd shut
*Six refineries with capacity of 2.55 million bpd at
reduced rates
No wonder crude is OFF 4.5$!! Amazing, somebody wants it down badly. In the crude markets I have covered for many years this would not be happening, it is thin trading today and a short has clearly taken full advantage. Intervention? who knows.
Sunday night at the early party it was zooming up up and away.
Normal opening, and it started dropping.
News out, not as bad as expected, winds dying down, then it was getting stronger but changing direction, declassed, etc etc.
The news changed every 5 mins.
Normal opening, and it started dropping.
News out, not as bad as expected, winds dying down, then it was getting stronger but changing direction, declassed, etc etc.
The news changed every 5 mins.
Luckily for me I didn't go long in the end....
Was short gold earlier this morning for 30 odd pips.
Truth is, I'm not really sure where/when oil price will stabilize...
anandsancheti
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i think prices will stabilise in the range of 65-85
It's hard to believe that only a few months back we were all contemplating a near term future in which barrels were rolling at 200 pieces, yet who was to say that only as soon as September we'd be sub 100 a barrel!??
But where is all this going? Given the current economic climate & now that 100 isn't the floor it seemed to be, could we be heading to an absolute rock bottom of around $81 a barrel - being the 61.8% retracement from the all time peak?
But where is all this going? Given the current economic climate & now that 100 isn't the floor it seemed to be, could we be heading to an absolute rock bottom of around $81 a barrel - being the 61.8% retracement from the all time peak?
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TWI
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I make the prediction that before the end of the year , this sunb $100 oil will be above $150. It will all be $ related and you probably have as good a chance to make money buying the Yen/Euro/NZD as buying the crude/precious. Just my opinion of course.
anandsancheti
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well abolute rock bottom no one knows but around 64 i think could be a bottom for it, but its interesting to read that a legendary member suggests that oil could go back above 150 by year end, cant see how it will happen, because that will need euphoria, which i cant see come from anywhere.
plus buying euro is not advised, but yen can be bought.
dont track NZD, so cant comment.
I would like to know what makes TWI think that we can see 150 on crude, but i am hearing that gold might as well hit 1200 before the close of the year.
lets see!!!!!!!1
plus buying euro is not advised, but yen can be bought.
dont track NZD, so cant comment.
I would like to know what makes TWI think that we can see 150 on crude, but i am hearing that gold might as well hit 1200 before the close of the year.
lets see!!!!!!!1
