Greece may exit the Euro ?

Let's turn the clock back 4 years to 2011. This is a great article from then, which I reproduce to show up the differences.

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Even on a stiflingly hot summer's day, the Athens underground is a pleasure. It is air-conditioned, with plasma screens to entertain passengers relaxing in cool, cavernous departure halls - and the trains even run on time.

There is another bonus for users of this state-of-the-art rapid transport system: it is, in effect, free for the five million people of the Greek capital.

With no barriers to prevent free entry or exit to this impressive tube network, the good citizens of Athens are instead asked to 'validate' their tickets at honesty machines before boarding. Few bother.


This is not surprising: fiddling on a Herculean scale — from the owner of the smallest shop to the most powerful figures in business and politics — has become as much a part of Greek life as ouzo and olives.

Indeed, as well as not paying for their metro tickets, the people of Greece barely paid a penny of the underground’s £1.5 billion cost — a ‘sweetener’ from Brussels (and, therefore, the UK taxpayer) to help the country put on an impressive 2004 Olympics free of the city’s notorious traffic jams.

The transport perks are not confined to the customers. Incredibly, the average salary on Greece’s railways is £60,000, which includes cleaners and track workers - treble the earnings of the average private sector employee here.


The overground rail network is as big a racket as the EU-funded underground. While its annual income is only £80 million from ticket sales, the wage bill is more than £500m a year — prompting one Greek politician to famously remark that it would be cheaper to put all the commuters into private taxis.

‘We have a railroad company which is bankrupt beyond comprehension,’ says Stefans Manos, a former Greek finance minister. ‘And yet, there isn’t a single private company in Greece with that kind of average pay.’

Significantly, since entering Europe as part of an ill-fated dream by politicians of creating a European super-state, the wage bill of the Greek public sector has doubled in a decade. At the same time, perks and fiddles reminiscent of Britain in the union-controlled 1970s have flourished.


Ridiculously, Greek pastry chefs, radio announcers, hairdressers and masseurs in steam baths are among more than 600 professions allowed to retire at 50 (with a state pension of 95 per cent of their last working year’s earnings) — on account of the ‘arduous and perilous’ nature of their work.

This week, it was reported that every family in Britain could face a £14,000 bill to pay for Greece’s self-inflicted financial crisis. Such fears were denied yesterday after Brussels voted a massive new £100bn rescue package which, it insisted, would not need a contribution from Britain.

Even if this is true — and many British MPs have their doubts — we will still have to stump up £1billion to the bailout through the International Monetary Fund.

In return for this loan, European leaders want the Greeks’ free-spending ways to end immediately if the country is to be prevented from ‘infecting’ the world’s financial system. Naturally, the Greek people are not happy about this.

In Constitution Square this week, opposite the parliament, I witnessed thousands gathering to campaign against government cuts designed to save the country from bankruptcy.

After running battles with riot police, who used tear gas to disperse protesters, thousands are still camped out in the square ahead of a vote by Greek politicians next week on whether to accept Europe-imposed austerity measures.

Yet these protesters should direct their anger closer to home — to those Greeks who have for many years done their damndest to deny their country the dues they owe it.


Take a short trip on the metro to the city’s cooler northern suburbs, and you will find an enclave of staggering opulence.

Here, in the suburb of Kifissia, amid clean, tree-lined streets full of designer boutiques and car showrooms selling luxury marques such as Porsche and Ferrari, live some of the richest men and women in the world.

With its streets paved with marble, and dotted with charming parks and cafes, this suburb is home to shipping tycoons such as Spiros Latsis, a billionaire and friend of Prince Charles, as well as countless other wealthy industrialists and politicians.

One of the reasons they are so rich is that rather than paying millions in tax to the Greek state, as they rightfully should, many of these residents are living entirely tax-free.

Along street after street of opulent mansions and villas, surrounded by high walls and with their own pools, most of the millionaires living here are, officially, virtually paupers.

How so? Simple: they are allowed to state their own earnings for tax purposes, figures which are rarely challenged. And rich Greeks take full advantage.

Astonishingly, only 5,000 people in a country of 12 million admit to earning more than £90,000 a year — a salary that would not be enough to buy a garden shed in Kifissia.

Yet studies have shown that more than 60,000 Greek homes each have investments worth more than £1m, let alone unknown quantities in overseas banks, prompting one economist to describe Greece as a ‘poor country full of rich people’.


Manipulating a corrupt tax system, many of the residents simply say that they earn below the basic tax threshold of around £10,000 a year, even though they own boats, second homes on Greek islands and properties overseas.

And, should the taxman rumble this common ruse, it can be dealt with using a ‘fakelaki’ — an envelope stuffed with cash.. There is even a semi-official rate for bribes: passing a false tax return requires a payment of up to 10,000 euros (the average Greek family is reckoned to pay out £2,000 a year in fakelaki.)

Even more incredibly, Greek shipping magnates — the king of kings among the wealthy of Kifissia — are automatically exempt from tax, supposedly on account of the great benefits they bring the country.

Yet the shipyards are empty; once employing 15,000, they now have less than 500 to service the once-mighty Greek shipping lines which, like the rest of the country, are in terminal decline.

With Greek President George Papandreou calling for a crackdown on these tax dodgers — who are believed to cost the economy as much as £40bn a year — he is now resorting to bizarre means to identify the cheats. After issuing warnings last year, government officials say he is set to deploy helicopter snoopers, along with scrutiny of Google Earth satellite pictures, to show who has a swimming pool in the northern suburbs — an indicator, officials say, of the owner’s wealth.

Officially, just over 300 Kifissia residents admitted to having a pool. The true figure is believed to be 20,000. There is even a boom in sales of tarpaulins to cover pools and make them invisible to the aerial tax inspectors.

‘The most popular and effective measure used by owners is to camouflage their pool with a khaki military mesh to make it look like natural undergrowth,’ says Vasilis Logothetis, director of a major swimming pool construction company. ‘That way, neither helicopters nor Google Earth can spot them.’

But faced with the threat of a crackdown, money is now pouring out of the country into overseas tax havens such as Liechtenstein, the Bahamas and Cyprus.


Parliament: It could be all over for Greece, which is effectively bust from relying on EU cash from richer northern European countries

‘Other popular alternatives include setting up offshore companies in Cyprus or the British Virgin Islands, or the purchase of real estate abroad,’ says one doctor, who declares an income of less than £90,000 yet earns five times that amount.

There has also been a boom in London property purchases by Athens-based Greeks in an attempt to hide their true worth from their domestic tax authorities.

‘These anti-tax evasion measures by the government force us to resort to even more detailed tax evasion ploys,’ admits Petros Iliopoulos, a civil engineer.

Hotlines have been set up offering rewards for people who inform on tax dodgers. Last month, to show the government is serious, it named and shamed 68 high-earning doctors found guilty of tax evasion.

‘We will spare no effort to collect what is due to the state,’ said Evangelos Venizelos, the new Greek finance minister of the socialist ruling party. ‘We promise to draft and apply a new and honest tax system, one that has been needed for decades, so that taxes are duly paid by those who should pay.’

Yet, already, it is too late. Greece is effectively bust — relying on EU cash from richer northern European countries, but this has been the case ever since the country finally joined the euro in 2001.

Two years earlier, the country was barred from entering because it did not meet the financial criteria.

No matter: the Greeks simply cooked the books. Two years later, having falsely claimed to have met standards relating to manufacturing and industrial production and low inflation, the Greeks were allowed in.

Funds poured into the country from across Europe and the Greeks started spending like there was no tomorrow.

Money flowed into all areas of public life. As a result, for example, the Greek school system is now an over-staffed shambles, employing four times more teachers per pupil than Finland, the country with the highest-rated education system in Europe. ‘But we still have to pay for tutors for our two children,’ says Helena, an Athens mother. ‘The teachers are hopeless — they seem to spend their time off sick.’

Although Brussels has now agreed to provide the next stage of its debt payment programme to safeguard the count ry’s immediate economic future, the Greek media still carries ominous warnings that the military may be forced to step in should the country’s foray into Europe end in ignominy, bankruptcy and rising violence.

For now, the crisis has simply been delayed. With European taxpayers facing the prospect of saving Greece from bankruptcy for the second year in a row, some say even the £100bn on offer will pay off only the interest on the country’s debts — meaning it will be broke again within two years.

Meanwhile, there are doom-laden warnings that the collapse of the Greek economy could be the catalyst for another global recession.

Perhaps if the Greeks themselves had shown more willingness to tighten their belts and pay taxes due to the state, voters across Europe might not now be feeling such anger towards them.

But having strolled the streets of Kifissia, and watched the Greek hordes stream past the honesty boxes on the underground, it does not take a degree in European economics to know when somebody is taking advantage — at our expense.
 
Is there much differenvce between this story and the other hindsight trading ones that I read on this site? The writer of it was correct. We should have seen it, especially when it involved a loan. Of course, we have all heard of the loans that have never been repayed.

The Greeks were given too much money. How many times have I heard that story over mortgage repayments? I bet that you do not have to go outside of UK and Spain to hear that.
 
Is there much differenvce between this story and the other hindsight trading ones that I read on this site? The writer of it was correct. We should have seen it, especially when it involved a loan. Of course, we have all heard of the loans that have never been repayed.

The Greeks were given too much money. How many times have I heard that story over mortgage repayments? I bet that you do not have to go outside of UK and Spain to hear that.

Not sure there's much hindsight trading here. This has unfolded like a slow motion car crash and been tradeable the whole way through. Loads of ways to play it too: FX, peripheral bonds, Greek banks. Greece was downgraded to Emerging Market status, what, a year ago? Election results are fairly binary outcomes however, and it was only clear there was going to be a Greek election a month ago when the previous govt collapsed.
 
The hindsight was seen after Greece was allowed into the Euro. Everyone was so keen to have a common currency. I was--I admit it-- and all comers were welcome because it was seen as the beginning of a federalised EU. Yet to be proved, I'm afraid, although I still have hopes.
 
The hindsight was seen after Greece was allowed into the Euro. Everyone was so keen to have a common currency. I was--I admit it-- and all comers were welcome because it was seen as the beginning of a federalised EU. Yet to be proved, I'm afraid, although I still have hopes.

Absolutely, I see currencies as barter economics.

One day there will be one humanity, one universal law, one language and one currency. That currency may also disappear as there may be no scarcity and everyone will have what they need.

There will be no need for borders, nationalities, or passports, gods and wars.

I too have hopes. :cool:


I'll do my best to live long enough to see it. :cheesy:
 
I naturally wish Greece well but isn't it time the euroland politicians showed their mettle and told the free loading rascals where the line has been drawn and no more loans that will never be repaid ?

Like a bankrupt company they should be given the choices of :-

1.Going into administration and selling off assets

2. Knuckling down to a life on their own

They are draining the life blood out of Europe and it's entirely their own fault of incompetence and corruption.
 
I naturally wish Greece well but isn't it time the euroland politicians showed their mettle and told the free loading rascals where the line has been drawn and no more loans that will never be repaid ?

Like a bankrupt company they should be given the choices of :-

1.Going into administration and selling off assets

2. Knuckling down to a life on their own

They are draining the life blood out of Europe and it's entirely their own fault of incompetence and corruption.

That's way too simplistic. The 'rich' European countries deserve blame too for the way that they recklessly expanded the scope of the euro zone as a political project without due consideration of the reforms required from poorer countries like Greece who signed up at the time for what seemed like free money. Who wouldnt? Greece has been in recession/depression for 6 years now. One quarter of the working age population is unemployed. Complacent Germans and other members of the rich West need to understand that telling Greeks to suck it up are leading to the rise of the very extremist movements that has so scarred Germany's collective memory of the 1930s. 7% of Greeks voted for neo-Nazis.
 
Incredibly, the average salary on Greece’s railways is £60,000, which includes cleaners and track workers - treble the earnings of the average private sector employee here.

Truth be told they should stay in bed if all they get for a hard days work is such a piffling amount !!!

Here's how real hard men driving trains get paid Down Under:

More than 400 workers in the remote region earn about $240,000 a year and are probably are the highest-paid train drivers in the world, a Bloomberg article quoted Christian Wolmar as saying.
 
That's way too simplistic. The 'rich' European countries deserve blame too for the way that they recklessly expanded the scope of the euro zone as a political project without due consideration of the reforms required from poorer countries like Greece who signed up at the time for what seemed like free money. Who wouldnt? Greece has been in recession/depression for 6 years now. One quarter of the working age population is unemployed. Complacent Germans and other members of the rich West need to understand that telling Greeks to suck it up are leading to the rise of the very extremist movements that has so scarred Germany's collective memory of the 1930s. 7% of Greeks voted for neo-Nazis.

good post, you touched the core of the matter...Patronising is the word, after we conquer then we accuse them, we make them feel guilty....we tell them that is their fault....as in domestic violence.

History repeats itself: american indians, aboriginals, south Italy, ireland, south europe .....

the reality is a few are making big money and are living very well with this deal.....greed is taking over and they are blinded by it and I suspect this will not finish well as it did not already twice...
 
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That's way too simplistic. The 'rich' European countries deserve blame too for the way that they recklessly expanded the scope of the euro zone as a political project without due consideration of the reforms required from poorer countries like Greece who signed up at the time for what seemed like free money. Who wouldnt? Greece has been in recession/depression for 6 years now. One quarter of the working age population is unemployed. Complacent Germans and other members of the rich West need to understand that telling Greeks to suck it up are leading to the rise of the very extremist movements that has so scarred Germany's collective memory of the 1930s. 7% of Greeks voted for neo-Nazis.

It seems that the kind hearted people like yourself currently have called the shots. Certainly deserve some praise for that but enough is enough surely. Even many Greeks are sickened by their own behaviour and don't want to accept even more hand-outs. As Olly once put it Sometimes " you need to be cruel to be kind ". All credit to the Irish who have worked their way out of the poverty trap, if they can so can others.

If their extra weight is sinking the boat then toss them out until they decide to make the effort to get to work.
 
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It seems that the kind hearted people like yourself currently have called the shots. Certainly deserve some praise for that but enough is enough surely. Even many Greeks are sickened by their own behaviour and don't want to accept even more hand-outs. As Olly once put it Sometimes " you need to be cruel to be kind ". All credit to the Irish who have worked their way out of the poverty trap, if they can so can others.

If their extra weight is sinking the boat then toss them out until they decide to make the effort to get to work.

One of the things that becomes apparent from living in continental Europe, which was never at all obvious to me when in the UK, is the degree to which the European project is driven by the collective terror (not too strong a word) of the conditions arising which led to the two Wars and their aftermath. If, for example, you go to the EU museum in Brussels (much more interesting than it sounds), you realise that it's all about binding these countries together so that a repeat of 1939-45 is impossible. Listen to any mainland European leader speaking about the successes of the EU and it always begins with something about bringing peace. Prosperity, etc too, but fundamentally it's about peace. If you read Piketty's Capital in the 21st Century (in my view required reading for everyone, even if one doesn't need to agree with his conclusions, but his review of European economics through the 20th century is exemplary, especially when it comes to the impact of both wars), you get to the same point, plus an analysis of the risks of destabilisation from inequality within economic groups (in other words the rich - countries or individuals - should consider transfer payments to the poor as the price they pay to live somewhere with rule of law and property rights. If you want unconstrained economic liberalism, move to Somalia and see how you get on). In other words, social cohesian trumps economic principles. And there is definitely a limit to how much pain the Greeks can bear. Put it another way, it would be inconceivable (and immoral) for London and the South East to cut loose the west and north of England and tell them that they need to look after themselves even though we know they can't pay their way. Yes, London would get to keep all the lovely loot for a while, but at rising risk of civil war. If the EU has a future, then the arguument is valid for Greece and the periphery apropos Germany and the rest of wealthy Europe. Well done the Irish for just buggering on, as Churchill might have said, but Greece is not Ireland, culturally or economically.

If you plot 'ease of reading' against 'genuine insight and thoughtfulness' for economic writers, then Gideon Rachman is at the efficient frontier (little economics joke there). His column in the FT today expertly squares the apparently irreconcilable positions of 'Greece can't afford its debt burden' with 'the EU can't set the precedent of writing down Greek debts'. I won't spoil the surprise, but the solution is to apply a bit of imagination. Having read it, I am much more optimistic that a compromise will be found.
 
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Very much agree with that Jack.

For Helmut Kohl Europe was definitely about peace first and foremost.
 
That's way too simplistic. The 'rich' European countries deserve blame too for the way that they recklessly expanded the scope of the euro zone as a political project without due consideration of the reforms required from poorer countries like Greece who signed up at the time for what seemed like free money. Who wouldnt? Greece has been in recession/depression for 6 years now. One quarter of the working age population is unemployed. Complacent Germans and other members of the rich West need to understand that telling Greeks to suck it up are leading to the rise of the very extremist movements that has so scarred Germany's collective memory of the 1930s. 7% of Greeks voted for neo-Nazis.

Am I right in thinking that major American banks helped and encouraged Greece to join through massive loans. If I was a bank I might think this is a bonus if Grease goes belly up, there is always the rest of Europe to help out!
 
It seems that the kind hearted people like yourself currently have called the shots. Certainly deserve some praise for that but enough is enough surely. Even many Greeks are sickened by their own behaviour and don't want to accept even more hand-outs. As Olly once put it Sometimes " you need to be cruel to be kind ". All credit to the Irish who have worked their way out of the poverty trap, if they can so can others.

If their extra weight is sinking the boat then toss them out until they decide to make the effort to get to work.

Here's a question. In the US 'generous' bankruptcy laws allow overstretched businessmen to fold their hand, walk away from their debts and start again. When the housing market collapsed in America, 'jingle-mail' took off: householders sending their keys back to their mortgage companies and walking away from their mortgages. Europe has much more stringent bankruptcy rules. Which has the more vibrant economy? Whose housing market has recovered faster? In China, personal bankruptcy is illegal, and if I remember correctly debts are inheritable. Failed Chinese businessmen therefore just 'disappear' - making sure their bodies are not found, their heirs cannot be saddled with their debts. Guess what. China is having real problems getting its private economy to pick up the slack from the slowing state-controlled one. Debt relief is normal: for goodness sake, Germany benefitted from it in the 1950s when the post-war creditor nations realised that the harsh terms of Treaty of Versailles were what had pushed the Nazis into power in the first place.

One further argument in favour of the Greeks. Why did the Troika bail out Greece first time round? Fundamentally, not to help Greece, but to avoid the writedown of bad loans to Greek banks and government in the books of 'rich nation' banks. That would have caused another banking crisis. The majority of the loans provided to Greece (c. 75%) financed capital flows. ie, allowing Greece to repay private bank debt by transferring the debt burden to Troika. ie it was Western banks that were bailed out, not Greece. And for this, Greece had to borrow another 16% to pay back interest. That leaves less than 10% which actually directly financed 'Greek lifestyles'.

Greece is completely within it's rights to ask for leniency after 6 years of hell. They adopted the Euro in 2001. The crisis hit in 2008. In other words, they've 'paid' for their mistakes for almost as long as they benefitted from being in the eurozone before it went sour. We (the rich Europe nations) need to back down on this.
 
I don't understand this post?

In the scenario of Greece breaking from the Eurozone (exceptionally unlikely IMO, but it's the question originally posed), European peripheral nation debt (especially Spain, Portugal) would collapse - the threat of debts being repriced in new local currencies? But, given that Europe will still be in full QE mode, spread remains overbid, so demand for other high yield would skyrocket - hard currency EM debt being the most obvious beneficiary. At the very least it's a decent hedge for the short on Spanish bonds.
 
We have a very determined PM in Madrid, at the moment, and he is waging war on debt to the limit. Elections are due at the end of the year so there is time, yet, and we shall be watching the Greek situation closely. Spanish yields are very low, at present. I believe that Rajoy should be a bit more human and pay attention to unemployment. 23.7% is too much and that is why there is a surge of popularity for Podemos. If they win, then there will be debt negotiations, for sure.
 
We have a very determined PM in Madrid, at the moment, and he is waging war on debt to the limit. Elections are due at the end of the year so there is time, yet, and we shall be watching the Greek situation closely. Spanish yields are very low, at present. I believe that Rajoy should be a bit more human and pay attention to unemployment. 23.7% is too much and that is why there is a surge of popularity for Podemos. If they win, then there will be debt negotiations, for sure.

Given the Greek election result......I wouldn't back against Podemos winning in Spain !
 
A great opportunity for free-loaders, too tired, workshy etc. to get more hand-outs. This is the Achilles heel of democracy and lets in the extremists. I don't think the Nazis have much hope after their previous efforts but there are others.

A Field Day for the lying politicians too. Be interesting to see just how the new Greek Govt of pie-in-the -sky lot last ?

That old phrase of catching a falling knife ( country ) may seem appropriate in hindsight. Will the do-gooders be dipping into their own pockets ? I think not, probably Socialists keen to spend other people's money as usual.

It's a tough world
 
Given the Greek election result......I wouldn't back against Podemos winning in Spain !

The electorate is fickle. Podemos has shot from nowhere like foam. They are, now, the second political power in Spain, overtaking the socialists. They can disappear just as quickly. The other political worry here is Cataluña. They have called for early local elections on September 27. If the indepentistas win that and Cataluña leaves Spain it could mean the breakup of the nation because the Basques and Andalucia are watching closely.

Interesting times!
 
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