Gold stox trying to bounce....
http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/may292007.html
If this chap is right then this is a great time to ride the wave in Newmont, barrick, anglogold, goldfields etc
http://www.kitco.com/ind/swanson/may292007.html
If this chap is right then this is a great time to ride the wave in Newmont, barrick, anglogold, goldfields etc
Atilla
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I think $ is about to take a dive very soon.
Japan talking about rate rises again along with ECB and possibly BoE. A little confused here as to whether the money will move into financial instruments or gold but time will tell.
Not sure about gold anymore. I'd guess still some more consolidation to go at these leves to see if 650-70 stabilises.
On the horizon there is a the possibility of Turkey going into Norther Iraq to chase away some Kurdish terrorists. Recently big bomb went off in their capital and Generals making noise and dissatisfaction with the governing political party coupled with Presidential candidate elections. This is all small news but if they to go into Northern Iraq and Kurdish forces retaliate, Iraq & Iranian borders can get a lot more hairy than ever before. Not sure how US will take it. One to watch closely.
Otherwise I have the DOW and Dollar to fall. Cable and Gold to rise. Not sure about oil but if DOW goes pants so will oil I guess.
catracho
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Yes worth keeping a close eye on them at these levels..not so sure if we've seen bottom yet in gold etc etc..
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Atilla
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Geopolitical tensions couple with some seismic market moves are stirring.
I'm thinking gold will go up again soon.
And so I have gone long at 668.5.
Atilla
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Don't know about curry moving bowels but it seems to have moved gold in the right direction for me.
Delighted to see pips in the bag @ 670.1.
Moved my stop to break even with free upside. I don't like saying this as much as I like peace and tranquility, a little bit of tough talk by my uncle Bush during the G8 should serve well. I almost feel as if he is working for me talking my pips up.
I reckon at this rate the dollar should plummet quite nicely. Somebody on the FX thread also quoted Morgan Stanley commenting on investors exiting their Yen carry trades too. So there may be an interesting times ahead for gold.
It's all very speculative though... Time will tell.
oi, you talkin bout me mate
dont get access to dollar index, but saw some email from aspen trading about it making a new low, so you could be right. have a look at those charts.
j
Atilla
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oi, you talkin bout me mate
dont get access to dollar index, but saw some email from aspen trading about it making a new low, so you could be right. have a look at those charts.
j
Yes I was. Good piece of news that as it nudged me into the trade. I think it's generaly understood the Dollar has big support from the Japaneese carry trades. I calcuated dollar falling will push gold up. Can't get FA out of mi head.
I think DOW is on a long term support line but if it doesn't hold up and sinks I'm really expecting dollar to fall further too. I find my analysis is usually quite good but has severe lags. Case of that TA and FA leading thing again.
Many thanks.
Atilla
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My SL on gold got stopped out and very glad - I lost nothing.
Another delicious day on the DOW. With markets turning I expect most commodities will come off their highs.
Thought about shorting but decided not to. Wish I had.
Surprised oil is still so high. Wondering if it's this hurricane / tornade in the Gulf that's causing it or just market turmoil.
Back to watching and listening again.
Another delicious day on the DOW. With markets turning I expect most commodities will come off their highs.
Thought about shorting but decided not to. Wish I had.
Surprised oil is still so high. Wondering if it's this hurricane / tornade in the Gulf that's causing it or just market turmoil.
Back to watching and listening again.
Jack o'Clubs
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Good spot on oil Atilla. Hope you caught some of the down today. I went short gold and silver late this morning which has offset some of the pain of being long copper, although even that was frustrating as I didn't get filled on my full order for gold while I was away from the pc, so only got half the size I wanted... Have found the last week quite frustrating and pleased that it is over...
Atilla
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Hi Jack O'Clubs,
I'm afraid I didn't, but well done for riding the wave. I'm finding in these turbulent times I can only manage one or two instruments at a time with lots of other work to keep on top of. Perhaps I should have traded DOW and Gold today instead of FX which I didn't do so well in.
Also, because of this head case that I am on the economic fundamentals I find I trade in the same direction with multiple instruments according to the way they are related and thus end up having multiple times the same exposure to market moves. Not good for my risk management.
I'm experimenting with pairs on the competition FX board like shorting one and going long on another but still getting to grips with relationship for the pairs.
Regarding commodities though I still hold the view if markets indeces come off their highs they will fall further.
One last comment on Gold - there is news in some quarters that Russia Iran and Turkey have a joint plan for Iraq and things are going to get a lot more complicated for US interests in Northern Iraq and in the Caucases. I'm sure you'll hear about it in the weeks to come.
This may cause gold, oil and energy stocks to rise but not sure at the mo.
I'm increasingly thinking as you and others point out news can get too noisy and perhaps I should just concentrate on the charts. Thinking am I a walnut or hazel nut? Hopefuly not a peanut.
I once considered becoming a walnut farmer. Walnuts are like gold you know. They are low weight, robust and high in value. Easy to transport and store. They need very little maintenance to grow and easy to collect. Long shelf life. They have excellent health properties and rich in natural oils. Very good for the brain some say. And not many people know that (said with a Michael Caine accent). A very niche market for any lords out there with acres to spare. :idea: Plans are gathering dust waiting for my pension. :cheesy:
Jack o'Clubs
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Hi Jack O'Clubs,
Also, because of this head case that I am on the economic fundamentals I find I trade in the same direction with multiple instruments according to the way they are related and thus end up having multiple times the same exposure to market moves. Not good for my risk management.
In practice you often end up that way even when just trading the charts as reactions to news and economic releases tends to make everything move in a predictable way, setting off a load of triggers which establish a position highly skewed to one economic/news scenario. So even if you don't trade FA, you can still end up very exposed to a particular 'direction', which is more dangerous still if you don't know enough FA to be aware it's happened!
We had a walnut tree in our garden - I became very fond of pickled walnuts! - until a neighbour cut down an overhanging branch at the wrong time of year and killed the thing. May be a good investment, but only for the patient. They take a hell of a time to grow...!
Was that a significant low ?
On 13th June 2007 we got a low after multiweek slide........ hitting 642 or thereabouts.
We also seem to have had 5 small waves into that low which makes it a bit more interesting....
On 14 june 2006 we also got a low (significant) at around 542 or thereabouts...
(14 June 2006, was low in stocks too... ) FWIW :cheesy:
On 13th June 2007 we got a low after multiweek slide........ hitting 642 or thereabouts.
We also seem to have had 5 small waves into that low which makes it a bit more interesting....
On 14 june 2006 we also got a low (significant) at around 542 or thereabouts...
(14 June 2006, was low in stocks too... ) FWIW :cheesy:
Wow.........
One month on we have indeed moved on ... we are now teasing 678/80 zone...
Things seemed to have changed according to the kitco.com chatterers but I would urge a little caution having possibly ridden the wave up of June low - the actual low was a marginal low to 640 ~ June27th . Caution here does not mean we fall over imo but tighten stops just in case...
June 27th also marked a low in US stocks.
This was recent piece of analysis to show bullish case and perhaps the need for cautious stance right now....
http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/Jul122007_gold.html
Spot gold at time of typing 676.4 courtesy of IG index
One month on we have indeed moved on ... we are now teasing 678/80 zone...
Things seemed to have changed according to the kitco.com chatterers but I would urge a little caution having possibly ridden the wave up of June low - the actual low was a marginal low to 640 ~ June27th . Caution here does not mean we fall over imo but tighten stops just in case...
June 27th also marked a low in US stocks.
This was recent piece of analysis to show bullish case and perhaps the need for cautious stance right now....
http://www.kitco.com/ind/maund/Jul122007_gold.html
Spot gold at time of typing 676.4 courtesy of IG index
catracho
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back again at these levels..could it be it finally breaks out? May be worth keeping it on the near term radar:!: :!:
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Cheers again Cat... I forgot about that prescient warning
Oil/Gold .... something funny going on
I shouldn't do this really.......
You gotta know when to quit in this game .......... but confidence is high so I'll spout some more rubbish in the hope that somethng comes of it :cheesy:
In the old days ....not so long agolol I used to recognise a turn in Gold late month OR early in the month.... it worked a treat for ages...
Gold has now risen for almost 3wks into the early part of September..... so I would be careful ...I know it sounds silly but lets see if this old wives tale holds true once again...
Dec contract seems to have a bit of a wall @ around 692.5/693 maybe its only temporary ... but from my viewpoint it's game on ......
(All we need now ....is geopolitics to throw a spanner in the works :cheesy
You gotta know when to quit in this game .......... but confidence is high so I'll spout some more rubbish in the hope that somethng comes of it :cheesy:
In the old days ....not so long ago
lol I used to recognise a turn in Gold late month OR early in the month.... it worked a treat for ages...Gold has now risen for almost 3wks into the early part of September..... so I would be careful ...I know it sounds silly but lets see if this old wives tale holds true once again...
Dec contract seems to have a bit of a wall @ around 692.5/693 maybe its only temporary ... but from my viewpoint it's game on ......
(All we need now ....is geopolitics to throw a spanner in the works :cheesy
Atilla
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You gotta know when to quit in this game .......... but confidence is high so I'll spout some more rubbish in the hope that somethng comes of it :cheesy:
In the old days ....not so long ago
Gold has now risen for almost 3wks into the early part of September..... so I would be careful ...I know it sounds silly but lets see if this old wives tale holds true once again...
Dec contract seems to have a bit of a wall @ around 692.5/693 maybe its only temporary ... but from my viewpoint it's game on ......
(All we need now ....is geopolitics to throw a spanner in the works :cheesy
Other than the defeat of the US in Iraq and it's withdrawal - which will ultimately bring peace in to the area there is nothing significant brewing.
There is the crazy rumour there may be a surprise attack on Irans military installations (3000 of them) to reduce it's fighting capacity but I think this is highly unlikely or more like suicidal for the US. They will not touch oil production or nuclear sites. I think this is purely rumour. But then again you never know???
I think the plummeting dollar and reduction of rates as well as the banking crises is fuelling demand for gold.
In the past $680 would have created quite a stir but no longer. I did go long and thought it would rise few weeks ago but I bailed out too soon. Will it go to $700. I don't think so. I think It will turn back down around $685-90 and retest 655 before making a sprint to $700 in the future. I don't think I'll risk any monies at these prices unless something significant occurs. May buy on weakness.
I do like trading in gold though. Very much.
