GOLD & SILVER - next move?

[Regulator2005]

Yes

Yeah, I agree no strong markets movements are in the gold market at the moment. I expect it to be a little confused until the big money comes back in. Will most likely see small small price rise the next 3 days. Best to stay out until the real direction makers get involved.
Regs

 

[TWI]

As long as dollar continues to devalue then happy to stick with it. Yen is now questionable but in medium term US cannot fight the devaluation without self destruction.

 

[Atilla]

As long as dollar continues to devalue then happy to stick with it. Yen is now questionable but in medium term US cannot fight the devaluation without self destruction.

Good move TWI.

$ is destined for continued falls. Surprised in golds' sudden surge but with the benefit of hindsights 655 held. Wondering if we are entering new long term price of gold?

 

[Bez]

Golds due its 3rd higher fame high (MTD) in a row high in mid April.... Price wise I'd like (YG) to have a try at the double top or the fibbo's just above :?:

Were not in an inversion zone so we all know what that means

 

[Regulator2005]

Another rise in gold price today.

 

[TWI]

I prefer Silver right now but in both and not disappointed. Certainly an easier trade than the crude righ now...that stuff is all over the place.

 

[Atilla]

I prefer Silver right now but in both and not disappointed. Certainly an easier trade than the crude righ now...that stuff is all over the place.

News coming out Turkey is building troops and has 50+ tanks on the Iraqi borders...

Something is stirring...

Gone long at $685...

Should have done it when I first heard the news...

 

[Atilla]

News coming out Turkey is building troops and has 50+ tanks on the Iraqi borders...

Something is stirring...

Gone long at $685...

Should have done it when I first heard the news...

More bad news out of Iraq

Some major points...

1. Does the US seriously believe that the bunch of terrorists it is breading will do any serious damage to Iran?

2. How does training Kurds to carry out terrorists attacks in Iran square with it's War on Terror campaign?

3. Why is the US trying to form a new long term base in Northern Iraq?

4. How does this square with ditching a long term regional ally - Turkey, to get into bed with a new short term partner - the Kurds.

5. What does this say about US loyalties? What goes round comes round. Where will US UK relations be in another 5 / 10 years?

6. Will the US be able to sustain this long term expansionist policies with the $ where it is?

7. Will the US war chest be able to sustain 130,000 troops for anothe 1.5 years or more?

8. Will the US flare to support the troops and make up the numbers last another 1.5 years or more?

9. Have the US adminstration thought out the consequences of their actions?

Another major disaster by the US administration imo. I see a new Afghanistan in the horizons but this one is much closer to home with ten times the impact.

NOTE 1. Against the Russians the CIA bred the Taliban
NOTE2. Against the Iranians the CIA is breeding the Kurds

What goes round comes round...

 

[TWI]

The whole northern Iraq thing ties in nicely with where the oil pipelines are going to need to go.
There is a lot of US policy based on pipelines. When i was at Enron in Houston they were doing the feasability study for a trans Afghan pipeline and all was well between US and Talliban. Then one day the project was pulled because apparently the Talliban had for no apparent reason decided to dey the company access for the pipeline. Didn't think much about that until post 911 suddently Talliban were target (not that I was unhappy about getting rid of those idiots) but it was a bit to soon after the project had been scratched and then...well Enron went down, but I suspect the contract went to the next best pipeline company.
This is only my speculation but it is one thing I know to be true rather than just a story from 3rd party as I talked with the team involved.

 

[Atilla]

The whole northern Iraq thing ties in nicely with where the oil pipelines are going to need to go.
There is a lot of US policy based on pipelines. When i was at Enron in Houston they were doing the feasability study for a trans Afghan pipeline and all was well between US and Talliban. Then one day the project was pulled because apparently the Talliban had for no apparent reason decided to dey the company access for the pipeline. Didn't think much about that until post 911 suddently Talliban were target (not that I was unhappy about getting rid of those idiots) but it was a bit to soon after the project had been scratched and then...well Enron went down, but I suspect the contract went to the next best pipeline company.
This is only my speculation but it is one thing I know to be true rather than just a story from 3rd party as I talked with the team involved.

I am aware of these big pipeline projects but not the gritty nitty details.

There is similar pipeline that runs out of Iraq via Turkey into the Aegan near Suriye. However, the Iranians, Turks and Syrians are now realising what Uncle Sam is up to and all three are becoming enemy number one because they have a different view. The US will not give anything to any other party. Want's all the oil for it self. Also, they are pissed off with Turkey not supporting them in the initial invasion - who took the European - German and French lines...

The three countries are talking about an embargo - blocking all entry and exit routes.



Off at a tangent, I read another report about Iraqi refugee crises and how 8million are now looking for handouts and UN support.

600,000 dead

2,000,000 refugees

8,000,000 in need of handouts

Does the US administration give a fock?

The Iraqis have freedom to vote what more do they focking want? We liberated them didn't we?

Introducing on the world stage Taliban version 2...

 

[TWI]

That is what they want also.

Check out the teachings of Strauss which is the philosophy to which they all subscribe.

I quote from an email received from a friend last week:

“... a political order can be stable only if it is united by an external threat; and following Machiavelli, ... IF NO EXTERNAL THREAT EXISTS, THEN ONE HAS TO BE MANUFACTURED.” - Leo Strauss

“Because mankind is intrinsically wicked, he has to be governed ... SUCH GOVERNANCE CAN ONLY BE ESTABLISHED, HOWEVER, WHEN MEN ARE UNITED – AND THEY CAN ONLY BE UNITED AGAINST OTHER PEOPLE.” - Leo Strauss

THE PROCESS OF TRANSFORMATION, EVEN IF IT BRINGS REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE, IS LIKELY TO BE A LONG ONE, ABSENT SOME CATASTROPHIC AND CATALYZING EVENT - LIKE A NEW PEARL HARBOR." - Paul Wolfowitz via PNAC

Incidentally Wolfowitz attended the University of Chicago in order to study under Leo Strauss

 

[minx]

Well soon enough China will become the evil empire and we'll all be back to the cold war II, but perhaps maybe not so cold given the level of trade between the new 'enemies'.

Anyway whatever, are you saying you're buying gold or selling it today based on the yanks possibly building an oil pipeline thru kurdish territory in 5+ years??

 

[TWI]

minx, lol, good point, drifting off topic.
I am still long just about everything. Probably waiting for a horrible day sooner or later when everything gets taken out. sombody buying a few $ today so could see precious come off. We'll see, been a great ride so far.

 

[Atilla]

Well soon enough China will become the evil empire and we'll all be back to the cold war II, but perhaps maybe not so cold given the level of trade between the new 'enemies'.

Anyway whatever, are you saying you're buying gold or selling it today based on the yanks possibly building an oil pipeline thru kurdish territory in 5+ years??

Hi Minx,

Sorry about going off topic, just couldn't resist to add to the chaos. My stentiments are doom and gloom on geopolitical front and the dollar so I'm long term bullish on gold.

Basically, looking at the facts I can't see good news anywhere.

However, I'm increasingly departing from fundamental analysis and looking at TA I think we will test 700 very soon.

A number of people saying gold will come off the highs and test support soon and probably will but I can't see it falling below 660. If 660 is breached then we'll have very strong support at 630-640.

For gold one should also look at oil and the value of the $.

1. I can't see oil position improving. Most international organisations are looking at strong growth for the global economy in 2007 so price of oil will rise further. Unlikely to come down by much if any at all.

2. Can the $ be saved. Well they are talking about rate cuts in the US I dunno but given elections, their spending and wars can't see it happening.

3. I won't mention geopolitical pressures...

Only one direction for gold...

 

[TWI]

Atilla,

Concur with you here.

points:
Brent better yeardstick than WTI right now regarding crude price. There is a domestic glut in US with lack of refinery capacity to take up slack. This explains wide Brent/TI spread.

For gold/silver I think $index best indicator of whether to continue buying dips or not. On long term chart below 80 it drops over the precipice. May be defended by central banks. I see no hope for dollar but there is a lot of influence seeing its decline is orderly.

 

[Atilla]

Atilla,

Concur with you here.

points:
Brent better yeardstick than WTI right now regarding crude price. There is a domestic glut in US with lack of refinery capacity to take up slack. This explains wide Brent/TI spread.

For gold/silver I think $index best indicator of whether to continue buying dips or not. On long term chart below 80 it drops over the precipice. May be defended by central banks. I see no hope for dollar but there is a lot of influence seeing its decline is orderly.

Yes agree very strongly. I think the whole globe, institutions and governments know the score.

This is what I mean by economic warfare. The US is virtually, ripping China and Japan off as the two biggest holders supporters of $ can't do jack but lose value of their reserves. In fact the US is virtually daring the international institutions to back it or lose out. I know what I would do. Cut my losses and kiss it goodbye. Which is what is happening already in a gradual controlled way as it should be.

China is doing better than Japan imo.

I've read somewhere about having a dual international currency standard - Euro - Dollar standard... Not sure about this. Sounds plausible and reasonable enough but doesn't sit well. Europeans are not one big happy family as they like to be seen. Maybe it's the English in me distrusting French and German dominated Brussels but I don't know...

I see Gold and Yuan increasingly playing a part...

On long term chart prospects I think 2008 is going to be a bad year and gold is likely to continue rising until then. Technically, gold looks solid.

PS. Also read somewhere gold supplies are running out or is limited. Like oil no new finds have been made.

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

don't have a view on the long term, as I trade in the short term, lol - but this morning's fall shook me out of my gold longs and now looking for entries on the short side for silver. If still below 13.8 (May futs) when the US gets going, then that would be my entry for some light shorts.

FWIW also closed some copper longs I'd been holding for a while.

 

[TWI]

Yep, all taking the pain today on longs. I got taken out of precious and some base positions this morning.

Down here I bought some gold and silver back.

Good luck

 

[Atilla]

Yep, all taking the pain today on longs. I got taken out of precious and some base positions this morning.

Down here I bought some gold and silver back.

Good luck

I heard on Bloomberg that gold might come off highs because interest rates were rising.

This is an incorrect analysis imo?

Interest rates rise because inflation is rising.

What does inflation mean to the gold price?

Which factor, rates or inflation likely to have greater impact on valuation of gold?

 

[Jack o'Clubs]

I heard on Bloomberg that gold might come off highs because interest rates were rising.

This is an incorrect analysis imo?

Interest rates rise because inflation is rising.

What does inflation mean to the gold price?

Which factor, rates or inflation likely to have greater impact on valuation of gold?

Or you could interpret it as rising interest rates being an acknowledgement of inflation and governments' preparedness to counter inflation even if it means unpopular increases in rates. So rates going up now may prevent inflation gettting out of hand later. Hence gold down. All of which is why I prefer to trade what I see rather than what I think! For the record, short some silver here, no position in gold.