Gold, Silver and Crude Oil thread

[fibonelli]

In view of the ramifications from the US credit bubble and a possible war with Iran.

I thought it would be a good idea to start a new thread covering the two main precious metals (Gold & Silver) and Crude Oil.

For myself, I have selected Gold to be one of the instruments that I would trade on an EOD basis.

To start off, here's a weekly chart of Gold clearly showing a triangle formation.

 

[Atilla]

In view of the ramifications from the US credit bubble and a possible war with Iran.

I thought it would be a good idea to start a new thread covering the two main precious metals (Gold & Silver) and Crude Oil.

For myself, I have selected Gold to be one of the instruments that I would trade on an EOD basis.

To start off, here's a weekly chart of Gold clearly showing a triangle formation.

Long term I have gold on the up.

We have geopolitical tensions coupled with the great fall of the dollar.

A little rusty on the timing. Gold has sneaked back up to 670 and I feel 680 may well be tested again soon. These days though I'm more of a scalper of gold. Either way I think the Euro and Gold have some way to climb.

If the banking financial system comes under any more pressure and rates start dropping I envisage gold will continue it's march.

 

[TWI]

Some smart money eyeing Gold upside and lot of short covering going on past 2 days.

 

[fibonelli]

I have a watchlist which I keep an eye on whilst backtesting.

One minute Crude was +140 and when I next looked it was +20.

Shown clearly on a 15 min chart.

 

[fibonelli]

A couple of interesting articles

"...As of today, Gold makes and marks history...

Gold only closed 5 consecutive days with a PM Fix over $700 in 1980:

1. January 16, 1980 - 760.00
2. January 17, 1980 - 750.00
3. January 18, 1980 - 835.00
4. January 21, 1980 - 850.00
5. January 22, 1980 - 737.50

Gold closed 6 consecutive days so far with a PM Fix over $700 in 2007:

1. September 7, 2007 - 701.00
2. September 10, 2007 - 703.50
3. September 11, 2007 - 704.15
4. September 12, 2007 - 706.00
5. September 13, 2007 - 704.50
6. September 14, 2007 - 716.35..........."

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Rigged Market to prevent close above resistance?

http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5190_September1407Gold1230pmCST.pdf

 

[TWI]

I was watching gold very closely friday and did a lot of volume. hat sell off was not normal. here was such a lot of buying into the afternoon. It was a golden opportunity for the bulls. No idea who would want to spoil the party.

 

[fibonelli]

Spot Gold +9 to 742.5.

Wonder if the Crimex boyz will do their usual 2-2.30pm smack down?

 

[TWI]

In words of Rothschild
"In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. ... This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard."

There will be some worried bankers out there.

Buy dips not strength..

 

[fibonelli]

I've updated my analysis of Gold Futures.

3 mth chart seems to be showing a 5 wave advance. I've drawn in two tentative trend channels (thick lines). The SMI is also showing a 5 wave pattern too! Could any EW experts confirm my wave analysis.

1 year chart with Fibonacci retracements and Fib expansions of the last 3 movements prior to the triangle breakout.

My best guess would be a target of between 756-770 but wouldn't be surprised to see a parabolic move to 785-800. Shown as blue shading on the 1 year chart.

1st Support is at 740.

Double click charts to see clearly.

 

[DanielLambert]

Makes you wonder why Chancellor Brown thought it was a good idea to dispose of 400 tonnes of our Gold Reserves in 1999 for $4bn at a price of $280 an ounce!!!!!

 

[catracho]

I've updated my analysis of Gold Futures.

3 mth chart seems to be showing a 5 wave advance. I've drawn in two tentative trend channels (thick lines). The SMI is also showing a 5 wave pattern too! Could any EW experts confirm my wave analysis.

Not an EW expert - but your first wave in first chart seems to be the longest - Elliott wavers will tell you that normally wave 3 is the longest - so maybe your count should start earlier?

Gold headed for 880

 

[fibonelli]

Came across this useful article regarding the extreme reading in the COT report regarding the Large Specs and Commercials.

http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=68

Each Sunday, I look at a summary of the weekly CFTC COT reports for a small range of futures contracts. I was aware of the extreme readings but thought the retracement would come later this week! Monday's high was 754.6 which was just below the minimum prediction of 756-770.

Catracho - thanks for your input.

 

[fibonelli]

Good to see the CriMEx boyz getting shafted two days in succession.

 

[fibonelli]

Found this report on the prubear site
http://www.jsmineset.com/cwsimages/Miscfiles/5309_SNA09572FCR.PDF

 

[fibonelli]

Useful strategic analysis
http://safehaven.com/article-8588.htm

 

[Atilla]

Useful strategic analysis
http://safehaven.com/article-8588.htm

I'm still short on gold and wondering if $750 level will be breached or not?

I would like a retest of 725-730 first to test strength again and make some pips in the process. Anything above 755 and then I'll change my mind.

 

[TWI]

Sorry to bang on like a stuck record but...
Of course Gold will go higher. Target $850 initially, then $1000.
As for pullbacks they should be seen only as buying opportunities..

 

[Atilla]

Sorry to bang on like a stuck record but...
Of course Gold will go higher. Target $850 initially, then $1000.
As for pullbacks they should be seen only as buying opportunities..

You are probably right TWI - I'll amend my target to 740.

Just feel as if we are not going to make it past 750 without some pull back first.

Let's forget about 730.

Many thanks.

 

[fibonelli]

Thought I'd post up a couple of short-term charts.

Gold Futures - Inside Bar on Friday!

Light Crude (emini) - Very close to the shallow trendline resistance.

 

[fibonelli]

A couple of articles on the SIV/MLEC bailout of worthless ABCP created by the banksters. No wonder PM's and crude oil are firm.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/index.php?a=14467
http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/institutional-risk-analytics-on-mlec.html