Gold 2013 ......a lack lustre year?

[elisab]

Until the U.S. thirty years won’t reach 4% from the gold, there won’t be good news…

 

[Joules MM1]

twit-twit

55m
UBS cuts Gold price target to $1050, calls the trade "obsolete", recommends Swiss clients rotate into chocolate or clocks.

49m
Morgan Stanley in March 2012: Gold to $2175 by the end of 2013.

Morgan Stanley in June of 2013: Just kidding, $1409

 

[Joules MM1]

why you should hold gold.....
Markets In Turmoil As Price Of Money Skyrockets To $90 A Dollar | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

NEW YORK—After fluctuating wildly this morning between $1 and $35, the price of money spiked to an unprecedented $90 a dollar in afternoon trading, plunging international financial markets into chaos. “Wall Street erupted into absolute pandemonium once the price of a dollar jumped past $50—if this keeps up, I wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar reached $275 or higher by the closing bell,” said CNBC analyst Marvin Kanisch, noting that the price of 20 dollars had soared well over $1,000 amid frenzied trading before plummeting back down to a more reasonable $430, while the price of five dollars remained steady at $5. “Everywhere you look, panicked investors are clamoring to exchange their dollars—which can only purchase about two cents apiece right now—for more stable dimes and quarters, which are trading at $18 and $32.25, respectively. And with the price of pennies falling below $140 an ounce, it’s easy to understand the sense of urgency. Bottom line: It’s a seller’s market.” With the skyrocketing dollar-to-dollar exchange rate prompting Americans to hoard as much money as possible, President Obama is expected to address the nation later today about easing America’s dependence on domestic currency.

 

[elisab]

What’s going to happen to gold and above all the HUI index?
Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost | Zero Hedge

 

[Joules MM1]

What’s going to happen to gold and above all the HUI index?
Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost | Zero Hedge

part of what drove the POG to 251 in 1999/2000 was that forward orders accepted lower and lower prices (and POG is like any positive feedback loop), add to that margin calls and many producers realised that they could hedge themselves into bankruptcy (like averaging down a losing stock position)

once the sell trend is underway, mechanical weight is added to the trend + money managers are trend followers so they'll open sell positions....

what fundamentalists argue works in their favour works against them, too

some A-ha moments where "investors" who thought QE/inflation would bring high(er) prices are getting out and where "investors" thought taking QE away would reverse the trend to up are getting out ......so hard to have your cake and eat it too ......doesn't matter if there's deflation/inflation/stagflation/screwflation ....none of them can fight the trend sentiment once it kicks in and the "investors' have had ample time to use all their reasoning....even as prices began to fly downhill people like Jim Sinclaire are arguing to hold and buy more, while people in Asia rush out to pay full retail for jewellery that instantly lost 50% of its value upon receiving the receipt

again, this particular auction process merely serves to prove that emotional logic drives price no matter who the bid/offer comes from

of course, the question is who is soaking up that selling? mostly it'll be the large commercials....even so, price can gap and fall on low volume, so waiting for price to swing to exit at a better price might not work either....the train has left the station

on the upside, for traders, the sudden squeezes will provide plenty of price length to play......booyah

 

[brewski1984]

If it does get near $1000 I might start putting my less vital organs on ebay though

I'll be open to offers soon.

1 careful owner low mileage never been raced or rallied

 

[Atilla]

part of what drove the POG to 251 in 1999/2000 was that forward orders accepted lower and lower prices (and POG is like any positive feedback loop), add to that margin calls and many producers realised that they could hedge themselves into bankruptcy (like averaging down a losing stock position)

once the sell trend is underway, mechanical weight is added to the trend + money managers are trend followers so they'll open sell positions....

what fundamentalists argue works in their favour works against them, too

some A-ha moments where "investors" who thought QE/inflation would bring high(er) prices are getting out and where "investors" thought taking QE away would reverse the trend to up are getting out ......so hard to have your cake and eat it too ......doesn't matter if there's deflation/inflation/stagflation/screwflation ....none of them can fight the trend sentiment once it kicks in and the "investors' have had ample time to use all their reasoning....even as prices began to fly downhill people like Jim Sinclaire are arguing to hold and buy more, while people in Asia rush out to pay full retail for jewellery that instantly lost 50% of its value upon receiving the receipt

again, this particular auction process merely serves to prove that emotional logic drives price no matter who the bid/offer comes from

of course, the question is who is soaking up that selling? mostly it'll be the large commercials....even so, price can gap and fall on low volume, so waiting for price to swing to exit at a better price might not work either....the train has left the station

on the upside, for traders, the sudden squeezes will provide plenty of price length to play......booyah

Hmmm not sure... From my perspective and a common text book approach it is -

In the economic cycle rates go down in a recession and they go up in a recovery. The bond FI and equities reversal is taking place already.

There are real costs to holding gold as opposed to dividend & capital gains in equities etc.

So if one splits the gold market up between;

1. Industrial usage
2. Cosmetic consumer demand
3. Uncertainty / speculative premium demand

The composition of demand for gold takes a whole new meaning. Why produce something no one wants or needs other than points 1 & 2.

So I'm not sure about demand rising and supply running out??? Gold is indestructible right?

Now that 1240 has also gone what next?

I think we may have a tempting rise to 1340s or something to bring some desperados in licking their wounds and then we are more likely to see another drop perhaps to 1000s now.

Like moth to scorching flames that 1000 round number looks so inviting :cheers:

 

[Joules MM1]

Hmmm not sure...

So if one splits the gold market up between;

1. Industrial usage
2. Cosmetic consumer demand
3. Uncertainty / speculative premium demand

in the auction process i am trading i dont know how to quantify either argument only the price in front of me....perhaps "investors" might want to look into that process closely at least as fervent as they are about all the other stuff....

 

[Joules MM1]

Re: Gold 2013 ......hows the next two quarters looking?

this is a good place for a bounce especially at the end of this quarter/half year ......typical walk away trading week,
window dressing getting rid of poor performance posies by money managers

although the last stopping station was over in a couple of days,
previously took anywhere from 10 to 15 T-days to complete before
next plunge since the 1800 level so have we hit capitulation for a strong rebound.....probably not....yet...

bears
:-0 shorters caught in a squeez

bulls
Schiff
:clap: shorters caught in a squeez (that's right he's wearing Iron Condor underwear)

anyone got an opine for the rest of the year...not that youre going to hang your hat on it :innocent: ....

 

[elisab]

All the excess accumulated on gold in 2010 when the bullish channel was broken upward have been written off. 50% of retracement of the entire bull market at 1087.

 

[Joules MM1]

silver suggesting the squeez is on......gold too with break of 1219.5's

break-out or fake-out? new quarter low vols, new games

 

[Joules MM1]

nope, nothing, fake ......reverse play

 

[Joules MM1]

Gold mining not sustainable below $1,200
Posted on June 28, 2013 by Editor

link Gold mining not sustainable below $1,200 | JuniorMiningNews.com

 

[Joules MM1]

silver will support golds break out at 19.52

 

[Joules MM1]

i thought we'd get a better swing yesterday so the volume and time taken to get price ascention was pathetic by the gold standard ...the other thing is a local cfd provider shows 78% of retail accounts to be long gold...right.....after all that pain on margin or leverage weak money remains long....that maybe all you need to know!

where's the volume?

anyways quick generic daily look that suggests we are in a small based build with lower dailys to come:

 

[counter_violent]

I hate weekends...already rehearsing how I will play the game next week.
As for this week, played a 60% game...satisfactory but not lethal. In lethal weeks I am Dexter !

 

[Joules MM1]

if there were no commercials to buy gold would be a lot lower at greater rate....it's worth considering their actions from a retail pov.... while the COT may not be useful from a timing perspective for some the data is worth a bias opine

CFTC Commitments of Traders Long Report - Other (Combined)

http://www.finviz.com/futures.ashx

 

[Joules MM1]

I hate weekends...already rehearsing how I will play the game next week.
As for this week, played a 60% game...satisfactory but not lethal. In lethal weeks I am Dexter !

no self administering of the dex, then...ok!

 

[counter_violent]

no self administering of the dex, then...ok!

I knew you would be straight on it

 

[Joules MM1]

weekend editorials from the interwobble


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link Chart of the Day: Gold's Biggest Buy Signal of Entire Bull Market! | SilverDoctors.com
Chart of the Day: Gold’s Biggest Buy Signal of Entire Bull Market!
June 28, 2013 By The Doc

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link Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost | Zero Hedge
Gold Drops Below Its Average Cash Cost
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/26/2013

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link Gold mining not sustainable below $1,200 | JuniorMiningNews.com
Gold mining not sustainable below $1,200
Posted on June 28, 2013

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link Can the Primary Miners Survive $18 Silver? : SRSrocco Report
Can the Primary Miners Survive $18 Silver?
Filed in Mining, Precious Metals by SRSrocco on June 28, 2013