Getting close to a 20 year bull market (super cycle)

Lecic

Junior member
33 0
we are facing a potential super bull market that will be 15-20 years like those who have been in the 40-60 century and the latest was 80-00 century. The next potential super bull should be in the range of 2020-40 (about )
Wondering what the revolutionary who will drive the stock market then? Would be nice to hear your theories on what will then drive the stock market so strongly in the future ?
What will drive this bull is intriguing to speculate in. But the most likely is that it will come forward. unless we come to the end of the world and they are not the likely scenario.
I would not concider it strange that hyperinflation may prevail because it brought the world so much new money into circulation. But I dont think it will drive a bull in 20 years without the need of something more revolutionary!

If we think like this then? What drove the super bull during 40-60 and 80-00 century?
A sharp rise in economic welfare when trade between countries expanded . Is a factor but what is more gear exchange during the year to new revolutionary inventions. The woman began to work etc etc. We will in other words, we will proboly repeat the same pattern. (15-20 Bull market)

Alternative energy should be driving during this super bull. Water / wind / solar cells, etc. Personally, I think Robot Industry (artificial intelligence) will have a revolutionary epoch. Where the robot / computers (algorithms) will become extremely sophisticated.

Of course, the land / forest freshwater, real estate, food and other necessities to have a significant role.

Given that the world population will increase significantly during 2020-2040 so should consumption increase significantly as well. combined with innovative new solutions , robot / computers will be much more sophisticated among others.
One should not take the position in this graph only see the ones that we are approaching a potential super bull that should be able to start around 2020, they are hard to tell if we've already started it or if we are going down again.
Reasonably ought we go down again before they come . But the index should NOT consolidate a lifetime , or even start a long-term downward trend and break down consolidation is not the likely scenario.

P.s Sorry for my bad english //R
 
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new_trader

Legendary member
6,527 1,417
Wondering what the revolutionary who will drive the stock market then? Would be nice to hear your theories on what will then drive the stock market so strongly in the future ?

The collapse of fiat money. I don't think the markets will gain much value when priced in gold. The S&P500 might be 10,000 in 20 years time, but the price of everything else will increase in proportion. The standard of living for the majority of people has declined over the last 20 years, that is a fact. There is every reason to believe the trend will continue for the next 20 years. Governments in most Western economies are broke, in debt and there are more and more people that are becoming the tax takers rather than tax payers. This is the legacy of previous Governments who promised more than they can afford in order to win votes. That's democracy!

But the stock market is going up...and the politicians will try and convince you "It's the recovery stupid".
 

vcir

Junior member
13 1
Yes, I think that it is soon time for the market to go down. In my opinion an important bottom will come in 2016. I also found this chart that show the same thing:
http://www.screencast.com/t/zqW2NpHkBp9K

2016? That's quite optimistic :)

I am just a day trader, and as such I live in a very short term frame, which means i'm not worried about what's the market doing next week..

Having said that, I believe we are way too overbought... Take a look at this article.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43733.html

At least it will be an interesting read.

All the best
 
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John Gold

Junior member
22 0
2016? That's quite optimistic :)

I am just a day trader, and as such I live in a very short term frame, which means i'm not worried about what's the market doing next week..

Having said that, I believe we are way too overbought... Take a look at this article.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article43733.html

At least it will be an interesting read.

All the best


Hi, this guy was bullish on gold in 2012 until 2014 and rode all the way down the bear market..

I also found this article on the page you sent which seems to be more accurate. This analyst also rode the biotech bubble and catched tops and bottoms in gold.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44724.html
 

Npard23

Junior member
39 2
I disagree with that sentiment. The only way we see a massive breakout is that if it follows a currency crisis. I think the analog currently resembles more the 1970's and we have one more Fed bubble bust before a new bull starts.

Reading Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear helped provide perspective for true bottoms. The Fed stopped the market from clearing the last crisis in 2009.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,443 2,873
I disagree with that sentiment. The only way we see a massive breakout is that if it follows a currency crisis. I think the analog currently resembles more the 1970's and we have one more Fed bubble bust before a new bull starts.

Reading Russell Napier's Anatomy of the Bear helped provide perspective for true bottoms. The Fed stopped the market from clearing the last crisis in 2009.


Don't see any resemblance to 70's. Care to elaborate?
 

Npard23

Junior member
39 2
Don't see any resemblance to 70's. Care to elaborate?

The combination of slow growth, negative real interest rates, and falling living standards resembles the economic environment of the 1970's. We have yet to see the reported inflation, but commodity prices and rents are telling a different story than CPI figures.

Chart wise the S&P currently also resembles the dow jones in the 1970's.

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/...Cpi1jvvd0sPi14oPGdl_4-KEo4u4R619OpY-e3A0MUxBT

2014 is the analog to 1973.
 

Atilla

Legendary member
19,443 2,873
The combination of slow growth, negative real interest rates, and falling living standards resembles the economic environment of the 1970's. We have yet to see the reported inflation, but commodity prices and rents are telling a different story than CPI figures.

Chart wise the S&P currently also resembles the dow jones in the 1970's.

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/...Cpi1jvvd0sPi14oPGdl_4-KEo4u4R619OpY-e3A0MUxBT

2014 is the analog to 1973.



In the 70s we had pretty much full employment with the oil shock of 74 that led to inflation with successive further wage increases coupled with falling productivity.

We now have excess capacity, high unemployment and wages remain supressed for good few years. Japanese style deflation is also seen as a potential risk.

I reckon interest rates will remain low and many debt ridden countries looking to moderate inflation to reduce debt burden but that's just my opinion.
 
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