B
Black Swan
Second leg of this global downturn is now a baked in certainty IMHO...if the MM is letting the moggy out of the bag we may have reached a stage were Swissys ain't safe either...certainly short term it'll continue to be the no brainer blast it's been for the past few years, but thereafter....?
Anyhow, I know a few of you don't like/think much of AEP, personally I reckon him and Edmund Conway have been consistently good on their analysis and predictions, in short you could do a lot worse than pay attention to their articles when you have a bit of spare MM time...The comments section are often worth scanning on their articles too...some clued up guys and gals hang out on there..
" One statistic from the Bank of Internal Settlement chilled me. It was a ratio of 10:1 when contracted financial obligations were compared to global gdp. That ratio has most likely risen since then. New currencies and the elimination of old debts are the standard. Anything else is reaction."
David W. Lincoln
on May 19, 2010
at 10:11 PM
A year ago, Germany's financial regulator BaFin warned that the toxic debts of the country's banks would blow up "like a grenade" once hidden losses from the credit crisis caught up with them.
An internal memo at the time showed that BaFin feared write-offs might top €800bn (£688bn), twice the reserves of Germany's financial institutions. Nobody paid much attention. But the regulator's shock move on Tuesday night to stop short trading on banks, insurers, eurozone bonds – as well as a ban credit default swaps (CDS) on sovereign debt – has left markets wondering whether the slow fuse on Germany's banking system has finally detonated.
BaFin spoke of "extraordinary volatility" and said CDS moves were jeopardising "the stability of the financial system as a whole". It is unsettling that the BaFin should opt for such drastic measures a week after EU leaders thought they had overawed markets with a €750bn rescue package and direct purchases of Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt by the European Central Bank. BaFin's heavy-handed move seems to proclaim that the rescue has failed.
"The market is left asking what skeletons are lurking in the cupboard," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. The short ban follows a report by RBC Capital Markets that circulated widely in the City accusing German banks of failing to come clean on 75pc of their €45bn exposure to Greek debt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...n-triggers-capital-flight-to-Switzerland.html
Anyhow, I know a few of you don't like/think much of AEP, personally I reckon him and Edmund Conway have been consistently good on their analysis and predictions, in short you could do a lot worse than pay attention to their articles when you have a bit of spare MM time...The comments section are often worth scanning on their articles too...some clued up guys and gals hang out on there..
" One statistic from the Bank of Internal Settlement chilled me. It was a ratio of 10:1 when contracted financial obligations were compared to global gdp. That ratio has most likely risen since then. New currencies and the elimination of old debts are the standard. Anything else is reaction."
David W. Lincoln
on May 19, 2010
at 10:11 PM
A year ago, Germany's financial regulator BaFin warned that the toxic debts of the country's banks would blow up "like a grenade" once hidden losses from the credit crisis caught up with them.
An internal memo at the time showed that BaFin feared write-offs might top €800bn (£688bn), twice the reserves of Germany's financial institutions. Nobody paid much attention. But the regulator's shock move on Tuesday night to stop short trading on banks, insurers, eurozone bonds – as well as a ban credit default swaps (CDS) on sovereign debt – has left markets wondering whether the slow fuse on Germany's banking system has finally detonated.
BaFin spoke of "extraordinary volatility" and said CDS moves were jeopardising "the stability of the financial system as a whole". It is unsettling that the BaFin should opt for such drastic measures a week after EU leaders thought they had overawed markets with a €750bn rescue package and direct purchases of Greek, Portuguese and Spanish debt by the European Central Bank. BaFin's heavy-handed move seems to proclaim that the rescue has failed.
"The market is left asking what skeletons are lurking in the cupboard," said Marc Ostwald from Monument Securities. The short ban follows a report by RBC Capital Markets that circulated widely in the City accusing German banks of failing to come clean on 75pc of their €45bn exposure to Greek debt.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...n-triggers-capital-flight-to-Switzerland.html
Tobin tax may have worked in back in the day; and I'm talking Jesse Livermore, but it's a complete non starter...Tim Geithner has said it ain't gonna happen, endex...
