Best Thread GBP/USD Breakout

[wilczek]

Correct - Sorry - With London Forex Open of all the trades they have reported I don't agree with/didn't get in on one of them (I didn't agree with the entry that day) - There have been many trades not just one in the last 2 months - so sorry for the confusion (and thanks GumRai for correctly correcting me so to speak).

W

 

[bhindaas]

Going to give it a try and see if it still works.

Had a loosing day yday (12th).

Todays chart attached

 

[Da.DesiTrader]

today a long was kicked in.

 

[bhindaas]

Another loosing trade yday.

Todays range:
High : 15440
Low : 15372

 

[bhindaas]

Another loosing day y'day.
Todays Range :
High :15522
Low : 15462

 

[Vaco]

are you tracking the results so that you can reveiw once you have at least 100 trades.

 

[gedward3]

Just stick this in your MT4 and set what hours you want
for the breakout. 01:00 to 05:00 etc.


Ged

 

[tomorton]

I don't mean to get anyone's hopes up by raising this thread from the dead.

I have read the entire thing and done a little backtesting.

This strategy cannot work on anything other than a random basis. The overnight hourly bars' closes are not true resistance/support levels so any break-out seen in the tick is not a true break-out with momentum to sustain the move in the direction indicated, reinforced by support becoming resistance or vice versa. Therefore any move that triggers an entry order is just random volatility. This could be successful for weeks at a time, or fail for an equal period, but it's just random.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Unfortunatley this used to be a "best thread" due to the nature that it did not require any thinking.

All based around a salesmans "make x amount in only 10 mins a day" product aimed at new traders.

Once it has been established that this will never work, no matter how much the goal posts are moved, one can then get on with actually learning the art of trading.

With a bit of luck, more newbies will see Tom's comment and quickly move on to something more productive.:smart:

 

[gamma]

Unfortunatley this used to be a "best thread" due to the nature that it did not require any thinking.

The thread was not given the status due to the reasons you so wrongly quote.

It was given the status on the merit that it was popular and encouraged debate , hopefully expanded thinking and broadened their approach to trading
Also bear in mind that over a shorter time frame yesterday's high /low are very relevant.

I still trade a shorter time frame with the relevant high/low with success

Just because some one does some back testing to their criteria and it does not work for them it does not mean its the universal truth.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Popular is no reason for a thread to be the best. The best threads on this forum normally fizzle out after 2 or 3 pages because they normally encourage people to think outside the box. Most dont like to do this.

Your experience is what enables you to successfully apply trading on shorter T/Fs with relevant highs and lows.

Highs and lows in Asia are normally (not always) irrelevant, due to the fact that the required personnel are not trading at that time, and they wont unless they are forced to.

 

[gamma]

All threads have a lifespan and the fact that it lasted so long is testament to its usefulness.

We all know that no setup or method lasts forever.

I just hope the thread helped to open minds and other methods have been developed

 

[tomorton]

All threads have a lifespan and the fact that it lasted so long is testament to its usefulness.

We all know that no setup or method lasts forever.

I just hope the thread helped to open minds and other methods have been developed

Well, it certainly made me think, I enjoyed the enthusiasm, and I was encouraged enough to read the entire series of posts.I already knew Claudia123 and had enjoyed her input on other threads, and found her work on this one encouraging. But she was the lucky (or unlucky) recipient of random good luck, when her first month of these trades brought her 18 winners in 20 days. I would say she was a victim of this chance occurrence and it's a shame she isn't around now and still contributing.

But, the system had no rational basis and therefore was bound to fail (and equally bound to succeed). The Holy Grail system when we find it will be one that recognises and obeys the physical laws of the market, such that the market has no choice but to pay up, and it will never fail.

I'm not sure that good systems have to fail.

 

[bbmac]

.....
But, the system had no rational basis and therefore was bound to fail (and equally bound to succeed). The Holy Grail system when we find it will be one that recognises and obeys the physical laws of the market, such that the market has no choice but to pay up, and it will never fail.

I'm not sure that good systems have to fail.

I entirely agree with this excellent post. A system based on the underlying principles and dynamics of the market shouldn't fail unless these underlying factors change. For example a system/methodology based around support/resistnace utilises the underlying principle of supply and demand,...unless that changes it won't fail.

G/L

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

I entirely agree with this excellent post. A system based on the underlying principles and dynamics of the market shouldn't fail unless these underlying factors change. For example a system/methodology based around support/resistnace utilises the underlying principle of supply and demand,...unless that changes it won't fail.

G/L

Good posts bbmac and Tom,


The problem devising any system/strategy, is that unless you understand the underlying
principles and dynamics you are still going to find trading an uphill battle because most take information on face value and dont think about these very important dynamics.

I suppose it brings back the old argument of systems versus methodology. From reading a lot of your posts i would say that you have developed a sound methodology based on what you have described above. Along with your time and experience you have found a way to consistently yield profits form your actions whilst at the same time respecting the relevant risks involved.

The major difference between yourself and the majority is that you will be able to see if/when these underlying dynamics change. Most will not because their systems are based on back testing principles that do change.

Support for example is only really support if actually means something to traders. If it is the result of a light order book then it is not support, but the art is in knowing this.

This is one of the many reasons these systems that produce good results during backtesting go on to fail miserably in real time.

Its a long learning curve

 

[gamma]

Gentleman,
Don't analyse this setup too much, its basis is on trend , not support and resistance.
As Tomorton rightly points out there is an element of randomness.
Also the time frame used is very small, to have any real meat on the subject.

 

[wallstreetwarrior87]

Youre probably right Gamma,

Maybe this would be better on another thread. The last few posts have been about the foundation of a strategy, still intersting though

 

[D70]

Plus, 6 months of losses doesnt mean it "doesnt work"..... many of the best strategies have long periods of drawdowns.

 

[gamma]

Also overnight range is such a wide term
Is it the Aussie range the Japanese range or Hongkong range.

If anyone wants to pursue this , I would suggest using the previous day's range there might be more to chew there.

 

[Shakone]

I don't know the exact strategy Claudia used, but I remember a little bit about it. Even with an overnight range breakout, there were other ways to play it, and I think others did. You could play the breakout directly, you could wait for some retrace, you could look for confirmation that the breakout had momentum etc. I don't see how you can say it was bound to fail, or that the results were just good luck. Its results were random, but then so are everyone else's pretty much. What did it have going for it? Well it required that a new low or high was made since the overnight range (so could be with trend). It required some momentum in the trade direction. These are not awful things to have on your side. If you manage it well, I see no reason why this can't be profitable.

Trend and momentum are not a rational basis to trade on? Hmmm.