FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Remains Vulnerable On Correction.

USDCAD: The pair remains on the defensive having continued to maintain a downside tone following its corrective weakness. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0350 level and then the 1.0250 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, to end its weakness, it will have to return to the 1.0608 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a move higher towards the 1.0650 level with a loss of here turning focus to the 1.0700 level. All in all, USDCAD remains under pressure on corrective pullback.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF: Reverses Gains, Vulnerable.

USDCHF – With corrective weakness seeing USDCHF declining and taking back its previous week gains the past week, further downside is envisaged. On further decline, the 0.9400 level comes in as its minimum target with a cut through here extending its correction towards the 0.9303 level and possibly lower towards the 0.9200 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to return above the 0.9750 level to resume its strength. This if seen will target the 0.9838 level, its Jun 2013 high with a cut through here resuming its broader medium term bias and opening the door for a move higher towards the 0.9900 level and then the 0.9970/1.0000 levels. On the whole, the pair looks to extend its corrective weakness in the new week.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURJPY: Outlook Higher On Further Bull Threats.

EURJPY- The cross may have closed marginally lower the past week but continues to retain its broader upside bias as it faces further upside offensive. It was seen threatening further upside at the time of writing this report. The risk is for it to retarget the 131.30 level. A violation will aim at the 132.14 level followed by the 133.81 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 104.50 level. Conversely, the risk to our analysis will be a return to the 128.51 level and then the 126.26 level where a break could force it further downside towards the 124.95 level. This if seen will aim at the 124.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Beware of the month of August, one of the best of the year for Jpy. It will be very difficult to see EurJpy above 133 and UsdJpy above 103.

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Buy area for UsdMxn. At 12.55 A = C and 61.8% of retracement of 11.93-13.46. In August, the seasonality will support the rise since UsdMxn rose in 10 of the past 12 years.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Struggling Below The 0.9305 Level

AUDUSD: To confirm its bottom, AUDUSD will have to retake the 0.9305 level. While that level remains unbroken, our bias remains lower in the long term. We look for its current recovery attempts to fail and a return to the 0.9000/0.8997 levels to occur. A violation of here will call for a run at the 0.8900 level. Conversely, AUDUSD will have to retarget the 0.9305/44 levels to validate its temporary bottom scenario. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9400 level and next the 0.9450 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Approaching the month of gold for Jpy. In August, the Japanese currency has been appreciated in 11 of the last 14 years on the euro and the dollar and even in 14 of the last 16 years on the Aud.

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

The Nikkei is closing the week with a typically bearish figure. Considering that August is the best month of the year for Jpy, there are some good conditions to go short on EurJpy.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Pressure Builds On The 1.5304 Level.

GBPUSD: Bullish offensive is likely to continue as GBP looks to strengthen further. This if seen will aim at the 1.5304 level where a violation will target the 1.5400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. As long as GBP fails to return above the 1.5267 level, bear threats cannot ruled out. This suggests we could see further weakness towards the 1.4996 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.4866/12 levels. Below here will resume its broader downside towards a the 1.4750 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its immediate corrective tone.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF: Sees Second Week Of Bearishness.

USDCHF – A second week of decline has seen the pair weakening and threatening further downside with eyes on the 0.9303 level. Below here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9200 level where a violation will aim at the 0.9130 level. Bears may come in here and turn USDJPY higher but if this fails to occur, expect further decline towards the 0.9030/00 levels. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to return above the 0.9750 level to annul its present bearishness and then resume its corrective strength. This if seen will target the 0.9838 level, its Jun 2013 high with a cut through here resuming its broader medium term bias and opening the door for a move higher towards the 0.9900 level. On the whole, the pair looks to extend its weakness in the new week.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bullish, Looks To Advance Further

EURUSD: EUR remains biased to the upside as it looks to strengthen further in the new week. This development has left the pair targeting further upside towards the 1.3207 level with a break turning attention to the 1.3297 level. A cut through there will aim at the 1.3450 level. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting this view. Conversely, a reversal of its past week gains will turn downside risk towards risk the 1.2755 level with a turn below here shifting attention to the 1.2700 level and then the 1.2600 level. All in all, EUR has turned higher on corrective rally.

 

[datamonkey]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Beware of the month of August, one of the best of the year for Jpy. It will be very difficult to see EurJpy above 133 and UsdJpy above 103.

Yeah and I am looking for a continued decline of AUD from it's drop beginning April.

Trading Aussie with USD and JPY and have already had a few long term entries from the pipdaq setups which I'm holding. Strong yen in August will be nice for me!

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Rallies, Breaks Through The 1.5304 Level.

GBPUSD: With continued upside offensive seeing the pair breaking and holding above the 1.5304 level during Monday trading session, further bullishness is expected. In such a case, the 1.5400 level will be targeted with a breach paving the way for more upside towards the 1.5450 level followed by the 1.5500 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5304 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected to occur and turn it higher. But if this fails, further decline could follow towards the 1.5250 level with a turn below here aiming at the 1.5200 level and then 1.5027. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Outlook Remains Negative.

USDCAD: Downside vulnerability remains intact on correction as USDCAD is selling off and looks to extend further weakness. In such a case, expect the pair to return to the 1.0300 level. That level is now being pressured. A break will aim at 1.0250 level and then the 1.0200 level. Its daily RSI is bearish suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, USDCAD will have to break and hold above the 1.0441/70 levels to annul its bear threats. This if seen will aim at the 1.0539 level and ultimately the 1.0608 level. A loss of here will turn focus to the 1.0700 level. All in all, USDCAD still remains under pressure on corrective pullback.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bullish, Pressure Builds On The Upside.

EURUSD: With EUR bullish and threatening further upside offensive, the risk is for more strength towards the 1.3301 level, its Jun 20’2013 high. This is coming on the back of its rally triggered off the 1.2764 level on July 10’2013. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.3350 level followed by the 1.3415 level, the location of its Jun’2013 high. A break through here will resume its medium term uptrend and open the door for a run at the 1.3500 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support lies at the 1.3190 level followed by the 1.3100 level. On continued weakness the pair will target the 1.3000 level, its major psycho level. All in all, EUR continues to retain its upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Bearish, Risk Points To The 0.8997 Level.

AUDUSD: With a sell of ending AUDUSD’s recovery on Wednesday, it faces the risk of an eventual return to the 0.9000/0.8997 levels. A breach of here will call for a run at the 0.8900 level and possibly lower towards the 0.8850 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, AUDUSD will have to retarget the 0.9305/44 levels to validate its temporary bottom forming scenario. Further out, resistance comes in at the 0.9400 level and next the 0.9450 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Maintains Bullish Momentum, Targets Higher Prices

GBPUSD: With GBP returning above the 1.5304 level, further upside offensive is likely towards the 1.5450 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.5500 level where a violation will aim at the 1.5550 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5304 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected to occur and turn it higher. But if this fails, further decline could follow towards the 1.5250 level with a turn below here aiming at the 1.5200 level and then 1.5027. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its upside bias.

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

My favorite trade of August: short ZarJpy. Disastrous season for Zar and excellent for Jpy .... and the week is going to close with a shooting star!

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Hi Elisab

Thanks. Its been a tough week for ZARJPY losing upside momentum and printing a shooting star candle pattern. We think the coming week is going to be harder for the ZAR as we expect a follow through lower. Watch out for 9.913 level.

Have a wonderful day

My favorite trade of August: short ZarJpy. Disastrous season for Zar and excellent for Jpy .... and the week is going to close with a shooting star!

 

[elisab]

Re: Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

Hi Elisab

Thanks. Its been a tough week for ZARJPY losing upside momentum and printing a shooting star candle pattern. We think the coming week is going to be harder for the ZAR as we expect a follow through lower. Watch out for 9.913 level.

Have a wonderful day

Thank you. The movement already began on Friday also on EurJpy and UsdJpy is closing the month with a monthly shooting star ... it’s going to be a powerful August for Jpy!