FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis
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USDCHF: Susceptible To The Downside On Price Failure.
USDCHF: The pair is now on a second day of downside weakness after it backed off higher prices on Tuesday. Despite this, USDCHF remains biased to the upside in the medium term. While the pair holds above its key support at the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low, we look for it to return to the 0.9548/91 levels. An eventual clearance of that zone will resume its medium term uptrend and aim at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high with a violation of there allowing the pair to aim at the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Further out, its psycho level at 1.0000 level will come in as the next upside target. Alternatively, support lies at 0.9301 level followed by the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low where a breach if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term though presently facing bear threats.
USDCHF: The pair is now on a second day of downside weakness after it backed off higher prices on Tuesday. Despite this, USDCHF remains biased to the upside in the medium term. While the pair holds above its key support at the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low, we look for it to return to the 0.9548/91 levels. An eventual clearance of that zone will resume its medium term uptrend and aim at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high with a violation of there allowing the pair to aim at the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high. Further out, its psycho level at 1.0000 level will come in as the next upside target. Alternatively, support lies at 0.9301 level followed by the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low where a breach if seen will push the pair further lower towards the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt is likely to occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term though presently facing bear threats.
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Daily Technical Strategist: EURUSD
EURUSD: Strengthens, Maintains Nearer Term Recovery Tone.
EURUSD: The pair has turned above the 1.2875 level, its Jan 13’2011 high suggesting further correction could extend.In such a case, the 1.2941 level, its Jan 05’2012 high will be targeted where we may see a price halt. However, if that level is broken, more strength is expected towards the 1.3074 level and next the 1.3197 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, on a failure of its present corrective recovery, EUR could restart its broader medium term downtrend by breaking the 1.2624 level. This will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. All in all, EUR now faces a nearer term corrective recovery following it’s a halt of its recent declines.
EURUSD: Strengthens, Maintains Nearer Term Recovery Tone.
EURUSD: The pair has turned above the 1.2875 level, its Jan 13’2011 high suggesting further correction could extend.In such a case, the 1.2941 level, its Jan 05’2012 high will be targeted where we may see a price halt. However, if that level is broken, more strength is expected towards the 1.3074 level and next the 1.3197 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, on a failure of its present corrective recovery, EUR could restart its broader medium term downtrend by breaking the 1.2624 level. This will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2479 level. All in all, EUR now faces a nearer term corrective recovery following it’s a halt of its recent declines.
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Special Focus: EURUSD
GBPUSD: The pair extended its corrective recovery offensive today, rallying strongly on the back of its Wednesday strength and opening the door for further upside.This development now leaves GBP targeting its .382 Fib Ret (1.6161-1.5235 declines) at 1.5582 where a break will set the stage for further recovery towards the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the threat to our upside view will be a return to the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. A break of the latter will aim at its .618 Fib Ret (1.4229-1.6736 rally) at 1.5187. Further down, its big psycho level at 1.5000 comes in as the next downside target. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5582 level.
GBPUSD: The pair extended its corrective recovery offensive today, rallying strongly on the back of its Wednesday strength and opening the door for further upside.This development now leaves GBP targeting its .382 Fib Ret (1.6161-1.5235 declines) at 1.5582 where a break will set the stage for further recovery towards the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the threat to our upside view will be a return to the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. A break of the latter will aim at its .618 Fib Ret (1.4229-1.6736 rally) at 1.5187. Further down, its big psycho level at 1.5000 comes in as the next downside target. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5582 level.
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Attention Points To The 1.0444 Level And Beyond.
AUDUSD: The pair continues to maintain its upside tone as it looks to convincingly break and hold above its key resistance at the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high. AUDUSD has been strengthening since triggering a rally off the 0.9663 level in Nov’2011. A loss of the 1.0444 level will turn focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012 low where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further having taken out its key resistance.
AUDUSD: The pair continues to maintain its upside tone as it looks to convincingly break and hold above its key resistance at the 1.0444 level, its Nov 03’2011 high. AUDUSD has been strengthening since triggering a rally off the 0.9663 level in Nov’2011. A loss of the 1.0444 level will turn focus to the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012 low where a breach will set the stage for a run at the 1.0042 level, its Dec 29’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.9861 level and the 0.9796 level, its Nov 11’2011 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further having taken out its key resistance.
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USDCHF: Bearish, Set To Correct Further Lower USDCHF (The Week Ahead)
USDCHF: With a second week of declines sending the pair further lower the past week, the risk is for USDCHF to weaken more in the new week. Although the pair continues to retain its medium term uptrend, its present correction has put that on hold and turned the risk to the downside towards the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low. A clearance of that level will turn focus to the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt may occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to break and close above the 0.9591 level to resume its medium term and shift focus to the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Further out, a violation of there will allow the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high followed by its psycho level at 1.0000 level.
USDCHF: With a second week of declines sending the pair further lower the past week, the risk is for USDCHF to weaken more in the new week. Although the pair continues to retain its medium term uptrend, its present correction has put that on hold and turned the risk to the downside towards the 0.9240 level, its Dec 21’2011 low. A clearance of that level will turn focus to the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low. A halt may occur here and turn the pair back up but if that level breaks, lower level prices could shape up towards the 0.9063 level, its Nov 30’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to break and close above the 0.9591 level to resume its medium term and shift focus to the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. Further out, a violation of there will allow the pair to strengthen further towards the 0.9913 level, its Dec 07’2010 high followed by its psycho level at 1.0000 level.
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EURUSD: Recovers, Faces Further Corrective Risk ( Weekly Technical Strategist).
EURUSD: EUR has triggered a strong recovery rallying off its Jan’2012 low at 1.2620 level to close higher at 1.2928 level. This development leaves the pair bullish into the new week with the risk of strengthening further towards the 1.3074 level and then the 1.3197 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On the other hand, if the pair fails to continue its recovery we may see it returning to the 1.2620 level where a break will resume its medium term weakness towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. We may see a breather here triggering a correction if tested but if that level is breached, expect the pair to weaken further towards the 1.2479 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2400 level, its psycho level. All in all, EUR maintains its medium term downtrend as it looks to weaken further.
EURUSD: EUR has triggered a strong recovery rallying off its Jan’2012 low at 1.2620 level to close higher at 1.2928 level. This development leaves the pair bullish into the new week with the risk of strengthening further towards the 1.3074 level and then the 1.3197 level. Above here if seen will aim at the 1.3212 level, its Nov 25’2011 low. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting this view. On the other hand, if the pair fails to continue its recovery we may see it returning to the 1.2620 level where a break will resume its medium term weakness towards the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. We may see a breather here triggering a correction if tested but if that level is breached, expect the pair to weaken further towards the 1.2479 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.2400 level, its psycho level. All in all, EUR maintains its medium term downtrend as it looks to weaken further.
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USDCAD: Weakens, Bearish Momentum Set To Extend (Daily Technical Strategist).
USDCAD: We continue to hold onto our downside view on USDCAD for further corrective declines as it weakened further the past week and followed through lower in today’s trading session.With a reversal of its Friday gains seen, the risk is for USDCAD to decline further towards the 1.0051/69 levels where a violation will open the door for a run at its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. Further down, a breach of there will target the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, the 1.0317 level will have to give way to put on hold its present weakness and then target the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high followed by its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will come in as the next upside target. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further correction.
USDCAD: We continue to hold onto our downside view on USDCAD for further corrective declines as it weakened further the past week and followed through lower in today’s trading session.With a reversal of its Friday gains seen, the risk is for USDCAD to decline further towards the 1.0051/69 levels where a violation will open the door for a run at its Nov 01’2011 low at 0.9970. Further down, a breach of there will target the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, the 1.0317 level will have to give way to put on hold its present weakness and then target the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high followed by its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will come in as the next upside target. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further correction.
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USDJPY: Breaks Out Of Consolidation, Pressure Builds On The 78.18 Level (Currency Out
USDJPY: The pair has rallied through its resistance levels at the 77.29/32 level during Tuesday training session and set the stage for further strength possibly toward its Dec 23’2011 high at the 78.20 level. This new technical development is coming on the back of a consolidation initiated following its declines from the 78.20-76.60 levels. On a continued recovery, further upside momentum will shape up towards the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high. This will be followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any pullbacks, the 77.29/32 levels will be aimed at where a reversal of roles as support is expected. However, if this fails to occur we could see USDJPY decline further lower towards the 76.60 level and then the 74.00 level ahead of the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the upside nearer term on further corrective recovery.
USDJPY: The pair has rallied through its resistance levels at the 77.29/32 level during Tuesday training session and set the stage for further strength possibly toward its Dec 23’2011 high at the 78.20 level. This new technical development is coming on the back of a consolidation initiated following its declines from the 78.20-76.60 levels. On a continued recovery, further upside momentum will shape up towards the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high. This will be followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any pullbacks, the 77.29/32 levels will be aimed at where a reversal of roles as support is expected. However, if this fails to occur we could see USDJPY decline further lower towards the 76.60 level and then the 74.00 level ahead of the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the upside nearer term on further corrective recovery.
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GBPJPY: Strengthens, Bullish Offensive Set For The 122.75 Level (Daily Technical Stra
GBPJPY: The cross rallied strongly on Tuesday building on its recovery and opening the door for a move further higher.With continued bullish offensive seen, the risk is for GBPJPY to head higher towards the 122.75 level, its Dec 22’2011 low. A cut through there will convince the market of further corrective gains towards the 123.14 level, its Nov 15’2011 high with loss of there aiming at the 127.30/21 levels. A breather is expected to occur here. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a break and hold below the 120.18 level, its Jan 03'2012 high. However, the bigger support lies at the 116.78 level, its Sept 22’2011 low. Further down, support stands at the 115.00 level, its psycho level and then the 114.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside nearer term on correction
GBPJPY: The cross rallied strongly on Tuesday building on its recovery and opening the door for a move further higher.With continued bullish offensive seen, the risk is for GBPJPY to head higher towards the 122.75 level, its Dec 22’2011 low. A cut through there will convince the market of further corrective gains towards the 123.14 level, its Nov 15’2011 high with loss of there aiming at the 127.30/21 levels. A breather is expected to occur here. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a break and hold below the 120.18 level, its Jan 03'2012 high. However, the bigger support lies at the 116.78 level, its Sept 22’2011 low. Further down, support stands at the 115.00 level, its psycho level and then the 114.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside nearer term on correction
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Currency Outlook: GBPUSD
GBPUSD: The pair continues to strengthen following through higher on Wednesday and opening the door for further upside momentum.With the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high now violated, the threat is for a full recapture of the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. That level was being tested as at the time of this analysis. Above there will call for a run at 1.5770 level, its Dec 21’2011 high where we may see a price hesitation. However, if that level breaks, expect GBP to strengthen further towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5666 level followed by the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Further down, support stands at the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5770 level.
GBPUSD: The pair continues to strengthen following through higher on Wednesday and opening the door for further upside momentum.With the 1.5666 level, its Jan 03’2012 high now violated, the threat is for a full recapture of the 1.5691 level, its .50 Fib Ret. That level was being tested as at the time of this analysis. Above there will call for a run at 1.5770 level, its Dec 21’2011 high where we may see a price hesitation. However, if that level breaks, expect GBP to strengthen further towards the 1.5885 level, its Nov 18’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.5666 level followed by the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Further down, support stands at the 1.5270 level, its Oct 2011 low and the 1.5235 level, its Jan 2012 low. On the whole, GBP continues to correct higher suggesting further price extension towards the 1.5770 level.
