FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

What does January holds for EURUSD having continued to hold its medium term downtrend


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FXTechstrategy Team

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USDJPY: Bears Take Control, Risk Seen Towards The 76.54 Level.

USDJPY: The pair is now on a second day of sell off following its failure to continue its recovery strength started from the 76.54 level. It looks like USDJPY could be building up downside momentum with the possibility of returning to the mentioned support at 76.54 level, its Jan 17’2012 low. If that level is taken out, further declines should shape up towards its 2011 low at 75.57 where a violation will aim at the 74.00 level ahead of the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, in order for the pair to restart its bullish strength, it will have to break and hold above the 78.20/27 levels. This will open up further upside towards the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside long term which is consistent with its present bear threats.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

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USDCHF – Rolls Over, Set To Weak Further With Eyes On .50 Fib Ret (The Week Ahead)

USDCHF: The pair ended the week lower for a third week in row since turning off the 0.9591 level on Jan 09’2012. With that said, USDCHF faces the risk of further declines in the new week towards the 0.9063/75 level, its Nov 30’2011 low/.50 Fib Ret (0.8558-0.9591 rally) where a violation will extend price weakness towards its psycho level at 0.9000. We may see a breather here due to the psychological nature of this support level but if taken out, expect more weakness to shape up towards the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, on any recovery, the pair will aim at the 0.9175 level, its Dec 08’2011 low followed by the 0.9240 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn it lower. However, if this fails to happen, the pair could strengthen further towards the 0.9504 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 0.9591 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9772 level, its Feb 11’2011 high. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on further nearer term weakness.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

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EURUSD: Maintains Continuous Weekly Gains, Eyes Set On 1.3375 Level (Weekly Outlook)

EURUSD: Having rallied and broken the 1.3074 level and the 1.3197 level, EUR now looks to strengthen further with eyes on the 1.3375 level, its Dec 12’12 level.On further price extension, the pair should target the 1.3484 level, its Dec 05’2011 high and possibly higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, on any pullback, the 1.3197 level will be targeted ahead of the 1.3074 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, if that level is taken out, further declines is expected towards the 1.2856/75 level, its Dec 29’2011 low/Jan 2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.2624 level where a loss will resume its medium term weakness and aim at the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

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USDJPY: Susceptible, Immediate Risk Points Lower (Daily Technical Strategist)

USDJPY: The pair faces the risk of recapturing its key support at the 76.57 level as it reversed its early gains the past week and poised to to weaken further in the new week.A clearance of there will turn focus to the 75.57 level, its Oct’2011 low with a break paving the way for a run at the 74.00 level and then the 73.00 level, all representing its psycho levels. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, USDJPY will have to climb back above the 78.18/27 levels to end its present bear threats and then trigger its corrective recovery. This will clear the way for a run at the 79.49 level, its Oct 2011 high followed by the 81.47 level, its July 08’2011 high and subsequently the 82.21 level, its May 24’2011 high. All in all, USDJPY is biased to the downside in the long term as it looks to recapture its key support.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

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USDCAD: Vulnerable Despite Price Hesitation (Special Focus)

USDCAD: While USDCAD is trying to stage a recovery having held above the 1.0000 level, its big psycho level and its Tuesday low at 0.9964 level, it still remains susceptible.This will leave the pair targeting the 0.9890 level, its Oct 27’2011 high. Both its daily and weekly RSI are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, the 1.0284/1.0317 levels will have to be violated to put on hold the pair’s present weakness and then target the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high followed by its Nov 25’2011 high at 1.0524. Further out, its Oct’2011 high at 1.0665 will come in as the next upside target. All in all, the pair remains vulnerable to the downside on further weakness.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

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EURUSD: Biased To The Upside Nearer Term But Continues To Consolidate (Currency Outlo

EURUSD: The pair will have to break and hold above the 1.3233 level, its Jan 27’2012 high to prevent a return to the 1.3025 level, its Feb 01’2012 low.If the latter occurs, EUR will decline further towards the 1.2930 level, its Jan 25’2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.2856/75 level, its Dec 29’2011 low/Jan 2011 low. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to return to the 1.3233 level to annul its present price hesitation where a breach will set the stage for further strength towards the 1.3375 level, its Dec 12’12 high ahead of its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. All in all, though still retaining its nearer term uptrend, it faces prices hesitation.
 

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StockHunter

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Re: EURUSD: Biased To The Upside Nearer Term But Continues To Consolidate (Currency O

Sounds like a good assessment to me
 

FXTechstrategy Team

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Re: EURUSD: Biased To The Upside Nearer Term But Continues To Consolidate (Currency O

Hi,

Thanks. We still believe EURUSD has more upside to go following its rally off the 1.2620 level (nearer term rally). It should head back up on ending its present consolidation.
 

FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
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AUDUSD: shots Through The 1.0749 Level, Sets Up For Further Strength (Currency Outloo

AUDUSD: A strong rally saw AUDUSD pushing through its key resistance at the 1.0749 level, its Oct 27’2011 high to close the week higher on Friday.This development has left the possibility of a return to the 1.0800 level on the cards. Further out, the next upside target resides at the 1.0900 level and subsequently its Aug 02'2011 high at 1.1004. Its daily and weekly RSI are bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, on any pullbacks, the 1.0749 level and the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high will be aimed at. A reversal of roles as support is expected to occur at those levels and turn the pair higher. However, a violation of there will open the door for a run at 1.0444 level followed by the 1.0230 level, its Jan 13’2012 low and then the 1.0141 level, its Jan 09’2012. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further having taken out its key resistance at 1.0749 level.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
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EURUSD: Bullish Momentum Remains Despite Price Hesitation (Weekly Technical Strategis

EURUSD: Despite a marginal lower close due to price hesitation the past week, its broader upside outlook remains intact.The pair must break and hold above the 1.3233 level to strengthen further with eyes on the 1.3375 level, its Dec 12’12 level. On further price extension, EUR should target the 1.3484 level, its Dec 05’2011 high and possibly higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, on any pullback, the 1.3074 level will be targeted where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, if that level is taken out, further declines is expected towards the 1.2856/75 level, its Dec 29’2011 low/Jan 2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.2624 level where a loss will resume its medium term weakness and aim at the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low. All in all, EUR continues to retain its corrective recovery tone despite a hitch the past week.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

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Special Focus: EURUSD

EURUSD: Broader Bias Points Higher, key Resistance Lies At The 1.3233 Level

EURUSD: The pair may be consolidating its rally from the 1.2620 to 1.3233 levels but continues to hold on to bullish bias with eyes on a return to the 1.3233 level.A clearance of here will see EUR strengthening further with eyes on the 1.3375 level, its Dec 12’12 level. On further price extension, the pair should target the 1.3484 level, its Dec 05’2011 high and possibly higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 1.3547. Alternatively, on continued consolidation, downside risk could develop towards the 1.3074 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair back up. However, if that level is taken out, further declines is expected towards the 1.2856/75 level, its Dec 29’2011 low/Jan 2011 low. Further down, support lies at the 1.2624 level followed by the 1.2587 level, its Aug 2010 low.
 

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FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,251 5
AUDUSD: Reverses Gains, On The Offensive (Special Focus)

AUDUSD: With AUDUSD reversing its Monday losses and challenging its psycho level at 1.0800, the risk is for further strengthen to occur.This if seen will leave the possibility of targeting the 1.0900 level, representing psycho level on the table. Further out, the next upside target resides at the 1.1000/4 levels and ultimately, its July 27’2011 high at 1.1078. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, on any pullbacks, the 1.0749 level, its Oct 27’2011 high where a reversal of roles as support will occur and then turn the pair back up. However, if this fails to happen, we could see the pair aiming at the 1.0569 level, its Oct 31 high with a violation opening the door for a run at 1.0444 level. Below here will set the stage for further declines towards the 1.0230 level, its Jan 13’2012 low. All in all, the pair faces the risk of strengthening further.
 

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gfs

Newbie
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Re: Special Focus: EURUSD

GBP FUTURES


GBP/USD

Date 07/02/2012
Total Open Interest 192,417
Net Marginal Change -246
Marginal Accumulation 3,584
Change in Total OI (%) 1.9

The British Pound futures market remains flat. It has added 3,584 new transactions since the last decline on 25th January. The spot price advanced further upwards. Cable didn’t correct as deeply as EUR/USD therefore there was no opportunity to enter long positions. COT weekly report confirms the similar dynamic to euro futures. Commercials are now dumping their long contracts. With stops triggered and more short covering we should see further advance in this market.
 

Nigel-P

Active member
199 49
Re: AUDUSD: Reverses Gains, On The Offensive (Special Focus)

Hi FXTechstrategy Team

I have no doubt your analysis is appreciated but I was wondering could you perhaps keep it in one thread, or even a thread per currency pair? You are opening a lot of new threads with just one post in them. You have 8 threads on the first page alone!
 
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FXTechstrategy Team

Senior member
2,251 5
EURJPY: Risk Continues To Point To The 102.52 Level And Beyond (Technical Focus)

EURJPY- With the cross holding above the 102.19 level and challenging the 102.52 level, its Dec 21’2011 low, further upside offensive looks to continue.Above the 102.52 level will call for a run at its Dec 12’2011 high at 103.86 and possibly higher towards its Dec 02’2011 high at 105.69. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Alternatively, the risk to our analysis will be for the cross to return to the 99.02 level where we could see a reversal of roles as support to occur. However, below here if seen will switch attention to the 97.02/00 levels where a breach will resume its broader downtrend towards the 96.76 level, its Dec 12’2000 low. Further down, support stands at the 96.00 level, its psycho level. All in all, EURJPY faces further corrective recovery risk having returned above the 102.19 level.
 

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