FXTechstrategy Team: Forex Analysis

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Further Weakness Envisaged.

USDJPY: With USDJPY breaking below the 79.42 level, the risk is for it to decline further. This now sets the stage for a run at the 79.00 level. A decisive cut through here will allow for more weakness towards the 78.18/27 levels. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower support this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 80.60 level and the 81.77 level to signal that a bottom is in place. This will bring further upside towards the 82.53 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. All in all, as long as USDJPY continues to trade and hold below the 80.60/81.77 levels, its broader risk remains lower.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Holds On To Upside Bias But Vulnerable.

USDCHF: Although USDJPY continues to hold on to its recovery tone while holding above the 0.9334 level, it faces the risk of a turn lower. This is coming on the back of a hammer candle formation the past week. However, it will have to break back below the 0.9334 level to end its upside risk and bring more declines towards the 0.9041 level with a cut through there allowing for more declines towards the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low where a breach will call for further declines towards the 0.8700 level, its psycho level. The alternative scenario will be a return to the 0.9499 level where a violation will call for a run at the 0.9591 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside while holding above the 0.9334 level.

 

[TheBramble]

Re: USDCHF – Holds On To Upside Bias But Vulnerable.

I too am (short-term) Bull on this pair, but there are three key levels where I’d be ready for a turn back up before considering a position. 9378 offers some Support, but even if that fails, the area around 9358 would be for Monday’s action anyhow, a key area for Support. If that fails, there’s still a possibility for reversal back up at the obvious 9300 level if not a few pips above. If it sinks below that, all bets are off.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Re: USDCHF – Holds On To Upside Bias But Vulnerable.

Hi,

Thanks. you are very correct. It may head higher in an attempt to retest the 0.9499 level but if what we saw on friday is anything to go by we should see usdchf follow through lower in the new week.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Weekly Technical Strategist: EURUSD

EURUSD: Retains Its Medium Term Downside, Extends Downside Momentum.

EURUSD: The broader risk continues to point lower despite its Friday recovery. With that said, we see risk targeting the 1.2640/20 levels. Further down, support stands at the 1.2587 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, a follow through higher on the back of its Friday recovery could see the pair targeting the 1.2902 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.3000 level, its psycho level. Other resistance levels are located at the 1.3282 level and the 1.3387 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Retains Upside Bias, Sets Up For The 1.0284 Level.

USDCAD: With USDCAD building up on its upside offensive the past week and maintaining its bullish bias, there risk of further strengthen towards the 1.0250 level. A cut through here will call for a move higher towards the 1.0284 level, its Jan 13’2012 low. Further out, resistance resides at the.0317 level followed by the 1.0423 level, its Dec 14’2011 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, on any pullback, the 1.0145 level will be targeted with a push below there allowing for a run at the 1.0048/51 levels. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here and set the stage for a move higher. But if this fails, more declines could follow towards the 0.9798 level and then the 0.9724 level, its Aug 31'2011 low. All in all, the pair remains biased to upside on further strength.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Dollar Index: Halts Upside Momentum, Triggers A Correction.

US Dollar Index: With the Index halting its strength and triggering a corrective pullback for a second day in a row, the risk is for more downside to occur.However, the Index continues to hold its broader medium term upside bias suggesting its present weakness is temporary. An extension of the mention declines will call for a run at its May 14’2012 high at 80.35 level with a cut through here targeting its psycho level at 80.00 level. Further down, support lies at its Feb 06’2012 low at 78.36 level followed by the 77.97 level. On the upside, the 81.78 level, its Jan 2012 high comes in as the next upside with a clearance of here setting the stage for more strength towards the 83.55 level, its Aug’2011 high and possibly higher targeting the 84.55 level. All in all, the Index continues to retain its medium term upside bias though backing off higher prices.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP: Holds On To Recovery Tone.

EURGBP- With the cross continuing to hold on to its upside recovery, there is risk of further correction higher. However, the 0.8197 level and the 0.8218 level will have to give way to suggest a bottom is in place for a run further upside towards the 0.8275 level and then the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. On the downside, a return below the 0.7949 level will annul its present upside attempts and bring further weakness the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a move lower towards its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bearish, Threatens Further Downside Momentum.

EURUSD: Having reversed its corrective recovery, the pair is on the verge of resuming its broader weakness. This will open the door for a run at the 1.2620 level, its Jan 2012 low. Further down, support stands at the 1.2587 level followed by the 1.2479 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Father out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP: Bearish Medium Term, Eyes The 0.7949 Level.

EURGBP- We continue to hold our downside bias on EURGBP as we look for it to decline further towards the 0.7949 level. A breach of here will turn focus to the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a move lower towards its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the cross will have to break and hold above the 0.8101 level and the 0.8197 level to resume its recovery. This will pave the way for push higher towards the 0.8218 level and then the 0.8275 level followed by the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPJPY: Maintains Its Broader Downside Bias.

GBPJPY – Having continued to hold on to its broader downside GBPJPY looks to target the 124.63 level. This if seen will call for move lower towards the 123.22 level followed by the 122.80 level and then the 122.02 level, its Jan 25’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, a return above the 126.43 level must occur to annul its present weakness and turn upside risk towards the 127.08 level. Further out, resistance resides at 128.84 level. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its short term weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF – Rallies Through Key Resistance, Bullish Tone Set To Continue.

USDCHF: With the pair violating the 0.9499 level and slightly closing higher above the 0.9591 level, its Jan 2012 high on a rally the past week, its broader uptrend is set to continue. As long as USDCHF can hold above here, there is risk of further upside towards the 0.9650 level and then the 0.9772 level with a break of here aiming at its 200 ema at the 0.9954. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, immediate support lies at the 0.9591 level followed by the 9500 level. A turn below here will pave the way for a run at the 0.9331 level. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here but if violated a relapse towards the 0.8929 level, its Feb 24’2012 low could happen. Further down, support comes in at the 0.8890 level, its Nov 03’2011 low. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside having resumed its uptrend.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Extends Bearish Momentum, Pressure Builds On Key Support.

EURUSD: With EUR decisively violating the 1.2620 level the past week, it is entering the new week vulnerable. While holding below here, the risk is for it to weaken further possibly towards the 1.2479 level. A cut through there will allow for more declines towards the 1.2300 level and then its distant support located at the 1.2149 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Further out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Biased To The Downside, Declines.

USDJPY: Despite With starting the weak and vulnerable, the ris is for present declines to extend. In such a case, its May 23'2012 low at 79.20 level wiwll be targetedUSDJPY’s higher close the past week, it continues to hold on to its broader downside bias. This leaves the risk of a return to the 78.18/27 levels on the cards and possibly lower targeting the 77.35 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above its April 04’2012 high at 81.85 to halt its downside pressure and then bring gains towards the 82.53 level. All in all, with its downside bias intact, the broader risk remains lower.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURGBP: Bear Pressure To Target The 0.7949 level.

EURGBP- We continue to hold our downside vulnerability view on EURGBP as risk of further declines remains. The likely downside target resides at the 0.7949 level with a breach of here turning focus to the 0.7840 level. A decisive clearance of this level will open the door for a run at the 0.7750 level followed by its Oct 2008 low at 0.7691. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the cross will have to break and hold above the 0.8101 level and the 0.8197 level to resume its recovery. This will pave the way for push higher towards the 0.8218 level and then the 0.8275 level followed by the 0.8423 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.8504 level, its Feb 2012 high. All in all, the cross continues to hold on to its medium term bias despite its recovery attempts.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Bear Pressure To Target The 1.5515 Level.

GBPUSD: With GBP reversing its intra-day gains and selling off to resume its broader downside weakness during Tuesday trading session, the risk is for the pair to target the 1.5515 level, its Jan 23’2012 high. As long as it can hold below the 1.5714 level and the 1.5642/53 levels, its Feb 14/15’2012 lows this view remains valid. A breach of here if seen will aim at the 1.5497 level, its Jan 10’2012 high. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5411 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to halt its weakness and then return above the 1.5714 level and the 1.5880 level. This if it materializes will target the 1.6000 level and subsequently the 1.6180 level with a turn above here calling for a run at the 1.6293 level, its weekly 200 ema. On the whole, the pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Extends Weakness, Pressure Builds On The 1.2400/1.2350 Levels.

EURUSD: The pair continues to weaken selling off on Tuesday and following through lower in today's trading session. While maintaining below its broken key support at the 1.2620 level, further declines is likely towards the 1.2400/1.2350 levels with a breach of here turning attention to its distant support located at the 1.2149 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Father out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Sells Off, Targets Further Declines.

USDJPY: With continued weakness seeing the pair breaking the 78.99 level, we are looking for USDJPY to target further downside. This will leave the pair aiming at the 78.18/27 levels. Below here will extend downside pressure towards the 77.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 80.60 level and the 81.77 level to signal that a bottom is in place. This will bring further upside towards the 82.53 level. Its daily RSI has turned higher supporting this view. All in all, as long as USDJPY continues to trade and hold below the 80.60/81.77 levels, its broader risk remains lower.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Weakens, Key Support At 1.2149 Beckons.

EURUSD: Having continued to hold on to its bearish momentum and weakening, the risks of further losses are likely. This will target its immediate support located at the 1.2300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.2250 level and its key support located at the 1.2149 level, its July 27’2010 low. The pair could face price hesitation on an initial test at this level but if that breaks, further declines could shape up towards the 1.2100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to break and hold above the 1.2620 level and the 1.2824 level to annul its present downside weakness and bring further upside gain towards the 1.3000 level. Further out, resistance resides at its April 14’2012 high at 1.3146. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: Further Upside Momentum To Target The 1.0524 Level.

USDCAD: With USDCAD extending its bullishness the past week following a break and hold above the 1.0310/17 levels, further upside is expected in the new week. In such a case, further upside is likely towards the 1.0524 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.0600 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.0655 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 1.0310/17 levels, where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn the pair upside. However, if this fails, expect the pair to aim at the 1.0205 level and then its May 22’2012 low at 1.0150 level where price hesitation may occur. If this breaks, further declines could target its psycho level at the 1.0100 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside medium term on further strengthen.