FX Trading Week July 30 - Aug 3

[jacinto]

hope everyone had a good weekend.

havent started the thread for some time, and just making sure atilla doesnt put the wrong dates

new poll, tried to make it different.

good trading

 

[Atilla]

hope everyone had a good weekend.

havent started the thread for some time, and just making sure atilla doesnt put the wrong dates

new poll, tried to make it different.

good trading

The dollar scenario in the event of a US recession is a little tricky on the fundamentals and I'm not sure my self... Here are some of my views;

1. Slow down in US economy will mean less dollars in circulation so the dollar will rise or
2. Slow down in US economy wlll mean lower interest rates and so lower dollar?

3. Slow down in US economy and high inflation = stagnation -> dollar in the wilderness?



On a technical level, using my Std Err Channels, for the week ahead I feel the $2 may be tested. $2.05 didn't hold so my target area for potential bounce is 2.02 and we are almost there.

Fib 61% retrace could take it all the way to 2.0020 region. I'm pretty certain $2 will hold.

I will be looking to go long again at $2 if $2.02 fails to hold.


Good trading everyone...

 

[Trader333]

In my view it will be an interesting week for GBP / USD


Paul

 

[Atilla]

In my view it will be an interesting week for GBP / USD


Paul

Fascinating!

 

[jacinto]

keep an eye open for AUDUSD

 

[JillyB]

Evening everyone. Hope it's a good trading week for all.

My system has me short tonight - 22.20pm registered an entry at 2.0228 - but unfortunately I missed this, so I now have a limit order on in readiness to get me into the trade should it revisit this price. (You win some, you lose some!)

I'll do an update at 7.40am ish tomorrow morning.

Though if you had to ask my opinion on this week FWIW I see a the possibility of a partial retracement - possibly up to the 2.0460/70 range. I'll just have to wait and see on this one.

Good trading

 

[JillyB]

So no profit to be taken today between 7.40am and 8.00am so my target is now set to exit at break-even.(My stop is kept the same)

 

[trendie]

has the "charridy" been scrapped ?
no thread for it!

 

[oiltanker]

long at 2.0254 after breakout and retest of 2.0235
1st target 2.0288
2nd target 2.0320

stops now at b/e

first lot out at target 1 +34 [another bizarre limit where the chart says 87 but it still got filled. i suppose it makes up for the times when the chart shows a target hit but not order filled]
2nd lot running.

 

[JillyB]

So no profit to be taken today between 7.40am and 8.00am so my target is now set to exit at break-even.(My stop is kept the same)

Stopped out - yet again!!!

Now this is the time where it takes a lot of resolve not to start tampering with the system. I know it works over the long term, so I just have to keep trading it.

 

[oiltanker]

stopped out on second lot.
it was a bit naughty to go 'against the trend' so still happy with outcome.
looks like sideways at the moment?
a 50% retrace on daily means it could fall further?

 

[trendie]

whats happened to all the traders?
the level of interest (views) appears to have fallen, and the number of posts droppped as well!

well, I am going to forward post my Sup/Res calls, for some light entertainment!
(just a bit of fun)

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

whats happened to all the traders?
QUOTE]

Possibly they've all given up, having lost lots of money when cable and the Dow went up about 400pts higher than expected?

 

[trendie]

whats happened to all the traders?
QUOTE]

Possibly they've all given up, having lost lots of money when cable and the Dow went up about 400pts higher than expected?

"expected"? ahh. trading opinions. my dumb MAs beat the thinkers.

 

[JTrader]

whats happened to all the traders?
the level of interest (views) appears to have fallen, and the number of posts droppped as well!

Well i've been busy doing strat work over the last few weeks, and not live trading.

I am aware that some people do not find this thread particularly helpful in general.........conflicting views to your own, causing confusion, doubt etc. I agree with this view to some extent.

 

[2be]

Well i've been busy doing strat work over the last few weeks, and not live trading.

I am aware that some people do not find this thread particularly helpful in general.........conflicting views to your own, causing confusion, doubt etc. I agree with this view to some extent.

Hi JT, market in consolidation mode has been predictably quiet. I find that the postings which reflect a realistc approach to trading spieced with personal experience in regards of the reasons for taking the trade or the reasons not to take one are of value to me. On the daily chart one can expect a cotinuation, if so todays L has to be teken from the upside. The other possibility is a good bounce into the area of 380 correction and then the the down move again. The 4hrs chart IMO is in favour of the first option printing a flag, which will be followed by a break out for a good 100+pps. As with breakouts, they can happen in either direction, so care has to be taken while waiting for it.

 

[JillyB]

I just enjoy reading everyone's posts. Seeing what the rest of you are doing - yes we all have our own trading styles and strategies - but it's good to know how everyone else views the markets. Sometimes it can be lonely business this trading lark - so it's good to have a bit of banter going.

It's so quiet on the boards at the moment, I miss being able to read all the posts - it's the only thing that keeps me sane at work! :cheesy:

 

[oiltanker]

Last week was great after those weeks of, for me, tight movement [most seem to happen during asian session]

As one guy was telling me the big institutions broke up on friday for summer hols so august can be a bit ranging and whippy as there is no one there to defend the support and resistance levels.

i'll have to see how my new trend following system handles august.

 

[trendie]

JillyB,

whats your review of Market Matrix?
I think you were looking at it a short while back.
also, the Delta turning point didnt happen when expected; has it fallen back in line?

I am curious, even though I keep reverting back to MAs!
although I am keen follwoer of "bubbles" sup/res thing on forex-tsd.
(not an indicator in sight; all horiz-lines off prices)

 

[JillyB]

JillyB,

whats your review of Market Matrix?
I think you were looking at it a short while back.
also, the Delta turning point didnt happen when expected; has it fallen back in line?

I am curious, even though I keep reverting back to MAs!
although I am keen follwoer of "bubbles" sup/res thing on forex-tsd.
(not an indicator in sight; all horiz-lines off prices)

Hi Trendie,

I still have the Market Matrix newsletters - I subscribed for 3 months to see what they were like. So far I'm not overly impressed by what I've read and also there hasn't been an update for July - which there usually is mid-month.

The other thing is that when I initially looked at the cable I had more turn points than they show - and they appeared to work more consistently (though who am I to question these people, they've been trading a lot longer than I have and probably a lot more successfully too). So I don't currently feel comfortable with the system. They called a top in the Cable and a price target and it just wasn't correct - the price went over 200 pips beyond there target - now there is no way that this could be called accurate in my book. They also gave a date of the 19th July as the major turn - which it wasn't - even though I hung in there with my trade waiting for it to turn!

However I did post last night that I thought there was possibly a turn point today and we would be looking for a bounce up from now into early next week. Not sure about this - but I like to post it on the board whatever.

The jury is still out for me. I need to look at it in more detail yet i think.