FX Trading July 2nd > July 6th

[trendie]

is this the drop we are looking for? or, one more bounce up before the real one?

 

[jacinto]

hi chaps

have 3 paper trades on, and one pending

long audjpy 104.70 currently doing fine, stop at BE
long eurchf 1.6560, few pips in profit, stop 1.6451
short chfjpy 100.71, under water by 15 pips, stop 101.35

pending long euryen 167.25

j

Edit: just cancelled euryen pending order. will wait.
Edit 2: closed CHFJPY for -13

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Typical -- looks like cable decided to bounce up off exactly the level I came in at short. Stop loss set at much more sensible distance now, though.

 

[Crap Buddist]

still waiting to dump this long looks like :arrowu: is coming.

 

[Priceman]

Hello all,

Thought it's been a while since I posted (as well as others who have gone awol!) so here's what I shall be doing with cable...

UK Interest rate decision is obviously key and US NFP... I don't like the spikiness around these times so try not to be in.

My system is currently short but I'm not in. There could be profit taking soon with such a good run for cable. Spike up to take out stops if there isn't a change in rates? I'll sell there right at the top ! If news is way different ie; 0.5% increase I'll hop on the long. Then hop off before NFP tomorrow. I'd be very surprised if this uptrend continues much more (famous last words and that's why I just follow the plan Stan!) and am ready for some retracing.

Key levels for me are:
2.0068 If breaks this down, then there's more down...
2.0175 If breaks this up, then more up...

All the best chaps and keep up the good posts...

 

[2be]

Hello all,

Thought it's been a while since I posted (as well as others who have gone awol!) so here's what I shall be doing with cable...

UK Interest rate decision is obviously key and US NFP... I don't like the spikiness around these times so try not to be in.

My system is currently short but I'm not in. There could be profit taking soon with such a good run for cable. Spike up to take out stops if there isn't a change in rates? I'll sell there right at the top ! If news is way different ie; 0.5% increase I'll hop on the long. Then hop off before NFP tomorrow. I'd be very surprised if this uptrend continues much more (famous last words and that's why I just follow the plan Stan!) and am ready for some retracing.

Key levels for me are:
2.0068 If breaks this down, then there's more down...
2.0175 If breaks this up, then more up...

All the best chaps and keep up the good posts...

It is very likely that a rise of 1/4% of the interest rate has been priced aleady into the cable. It has been so widely publicised and for a long period, anything less or more shall move the market accordingly. If it is 1/4% the odds favour a move down, there also are two consecutive doji on daily cable, giving the resistance on yesterdays high to be on a safe side. It is worth to remember that doji signals a slowdown, rather then a straight forward reversal. These two doji therefore have to be confirmed by S/R and other indicators.

 

[Crap Buddist]

dumped my long,-27 got a sell boot in at 2.0158 ,

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Midday madness soon. Spike up then down, or vice versa?

 

[wasp]

Midday madness soon. Spike up then down, or vice versa?

...or maybe nothing at all.... its always the way, you wait and wait and then it does bugger all!

 

[Crap Buddist]

if it spikes up, holding short,(within reason), hard down, looking to exit ,likely go long see what it does and how quick.....

good luck phil the force, the force....

 

[fibonelli]

75 pip range on the fifteen min candle

 

[zuke]

I ended up being away from my screens so that I wouldnt be tempted and looks like it was a good move!! Many, many people will be nursing being whipped in that candle!!

 

[trendie]

major spikey stuff.
I have gone short, as its hit my "optimal short" point.
but I am scared, because its news driven.

 

[wasp]

Lots of speculation in the news now the future decisions are unknown.....

The future direction of rates, however, is less clear, with economists offering a mixed view on whether a further rise to 6% is on the cards in the second half of the year.
Many analysts see another increase in the cost of borrowing as necessary to curb inflation, which is running at 2.5%, significantly above the government's 2% target rate.
Others argue that inflation is already on the way down, having fallen from a decade-high of 3.1% in March, and that the full effect of previous hikes hasn't yet been seen -- particularly on mortgage repayments where it takes time for banks to pass on higher rates to customers who have fixed interest-rate deals.
Economic data still suggests interest rate risks are on the upside. But some indicators, such as manufacturing output and total mortgage lending, have fallen back, suggesting the decisions are likely to get closer.
The breakdown of Thursday's vote could be crucial to whether more rate hikes can be expected.
The meeting's minutes won't be released for another couple of weeks, but if they reveal a tight vote it could indicate strong resistance for any further moves.
"The closeness of the balance of economic data this month suggests that any rise above 5.75% will have to be driven by worsening inflation and faster growth to convince a majority on the MPC," said Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB, in a recent note to clients.

(Marketwatch)

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

Lots of speculation in the news now the future decisions are unknown.....

The future direction of rates, however, is less clear, with economists offering a mixed view on whether a further rise to 6% is on the cards in the second half of the year.
Many analysts see another increase in the cost of borrowing as necessary to curb inflation, which is running at 2.5%, significantly above the government's 2% target rate.
Others argue that inflation is already on the way down, having fallen from a decade-high of 3.1% in March, and that the full effect of previous hikes hasn't yet been seen -- particularly on mortgage repayments where it takes time for banks to pass on higher rates to customers who have fixed interest-rate deals.
Economic data still suggests interest rate risks are on the upside. But some indicators, such as manufacturing output and total mortgage lending, have fallen back, suggesting the decisions are likely to get closer.
The breakdown of Thursday's vote could be crucial to whether more rate hikes can be expected.
The meeting's minutes won't be released for another couple of weeks, but if they reveal a tight vote it could indicate strong resistance for any further moves.
"The closeness of the balance of economic data this month suggests that any rise above 5.75% will have to be driven by worsening inflation and faster growth to convince a majority on the MPC," said Trevor Williams, chief economist at Lloyds TSB, in a recent note to clients.

(Marketwatch)

So they're as clueless as the rest of us, then!

 

[wasp]

So they're as clueless as the rest of us, then!

pretty much yeah!

 

[fibonelli]

my own view is that 6% will be the old 15%. eg 15% on £60k is the same as 6% on £150k of mortgage debt.

 

[Phil Mibbutz]

FWIW, I went short again on the first run up to 180, then sweated gently as it broke through 200 again. Cleverly just missed chance to take a modest profit a few minutes ago. Still think a droop is likely, although another go at 200 entirely possible.

 

[Priceman]

Well I got my short near the top not quite the very top though. It's now broken 170 let's see where it goes down to. If this hour doesn't close below 170 then I fear more upside, possibly upto 250! That maybe tomorrow's target with NFP. Stop is tight as I'm going off to a meeting. It seems to like 160 so I suppose that's the nearest resistance for the day...

Any other thoughts out there?

 

[jacinto]

hi all,

good i was asleep when this mess happened. price starts to signal that cable has probably topped. lets see what NFP does tomorrow.

j