FX professional trader with an unconventional approach

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EraNik

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Welcome to my posting space here at Trade2Win. In order to save some space and only if you're interested, you can learn about me by following the link in my signature box.

To the skeptic ones... Why am I posting here? As a real fx pro trader, what might my motivation be? I basically like writing. In English, although I'm from Spain. Besides, I've gotten to where I am after a very arduous, complicated and exhausting jourmey, so I'll take whatever time off I want to do what I enjoy doing.

What will you get in this thread? My thoughts about the FX market and the Macro game as a whole. I'm rather sharp-tongued, and add to that the fact that I despise the world we live in, so you probably will skip some of my posts. However, if I were you I'd consider going the distance here. Everything that will be posted will be here for a reason, whether you like it or not. Plus, you'll also know some of my live moves in the market, and I expect you to take advantage off them.

What will you NOT get in this thread? The'Holy Grail' (I for one don't kno what it is). I will talk to you in a serious manner here. I will treat you with respect. This means that I won't bull**** you or sell you anything of what has cost me so much to arrive at, for if I did it would mean I don't value it enough, like 99-9% of the crap-sellers outhere. No. Here you will (an donly if you really want to) get the real sort of info to grow yourself as a trader. If you're already a grown-up, then it'll be good of you to participate with your insight.

OK, we're all set. Time to start posting and FXing a bit. Enjoy your stay.

EraNik
 
Last edited:
FX View: GBP/CAD

I like shorting the pair at current levels 1.82. If the recent top @ 1.84 is taken out then the scenario becomes invalid. Use of intermediate levels such as 1.83 may be of value.

EraNik
 
FX View: GBP/CAD update

Have just updated the scenario after today's drop.

http://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2014/12/23/fx-view-gbpcad-update/


PS: MajorMagnuM -- Thanks for posting. I may ealborate on this further as we go (we'll see), but I'm giving you a quick answer here. Trading scenarios isn't like picking the perfect/exact price. Also, depending on the volume you trade, you will usually get filled 7-12 pips worse, hence you've got to trade wider ranges, the fact that prices did hit a high of 1.82045 in my feed after the post notwithstanding. Long-story short, I started to cover the scenario @ 1.8170, filling it further up to 1.8190, with some obvious parts not being filled as prices didn't reach the point. It's scenario-trading w/ risk-management, not intraday/short term cold-call, perhaps not very fashion, but it does the trick.
 
scenario based traders. hmm, thread bookmarked. :)
would you mind to share your entry approach, i know this approach are simply small portion of your trading setup, i believe the main part of your system is Anticipation (scenario), but it would be much better to know how a profesional trader analysis.. than reading fx article from economist which fact he doesn't trade technically.
 
Re: billyjean

Hi billyjean, thanks for your words. You got that one right.

The entry approach is a very small part of the whole trading setup; and there are so many valid ones outhere that it makes me posting mine rather useless, the fact that each one of us has particular features that make a profitable approach for John become a total loser for Peter notwithstanding. As a matter of example, and since I don't know -yet- any profitable FX traders with a track record longer than 3 years, I will tell you that those I know making good returns in the institutional arena for such a lifespan, in both the futures and the fixed income markets, have extremely, almost unbelievably easy-to-read models based on simple moving averages. But their heads, like those of socyopaths, hold still in times when others crumble; that's the only difference you'll ever have to find. But it indeed is a hell of a difference.

'Trading scenarios' requires one simple step on the technical side: monitor price action closely. And how one does that or gets to do that depends on the following 3 pillars for developing any trading method: timeframe, discipline and profit expectation.

Timeframe defines you as a trader; a nervous, impetuous and fast-gun personality won't bother to look at 1hr+ charts. Similarly, won't bother to look for 150+ targets ; therefore he won't be looking at any scenarios to trade, he will execute intraday/short term signals on the market, which is a totally different game (one I find extremely difficult myself, by the way).

Discipline shows the distance you'll cover to sticking to your trading method. Any trader must make sure he's got this point covered before the first trade is put in, as it concerns how much time will elapse until he will consider that (in a worst-case scenario) his system is no longer working. Rsik tolerance is a by-product of this pillar.

Profit Expectation categorizes you in the traders' map. Having to earn your pay on a 5, 10 or 20:1 leverage per trade won't probably put you on the institutional trader list, and surely doesn't put you in the 'trading scenarios' group. On the other hand, trading 10MM tickets in various crosses will certainly not make of you a retail trader, and liquidity constraints will mean that you'll have to look for bigger plans rather than going intraday on your trades.

To wrap this up, I favor trading scenarios rather than intraday moves because I'm made this way, and the way I read the price action goes accordingly (or was it the other way around? Well, never mind...got it sorted :)). But whenever I post about liking a particular scenario believe me when I say to you that it has very little to do with any overbought/oversold 'possible status' a particular pair might be in. Price action goes up or down, it never goes overbought or oversold.

EraNik
 
EraNik said:
Welcome to my posting space here at Trade2Win. In order to save some space and only if you're interested, you can learn about me by following the link in my signature box.

To the skeptic ones... Why am I posting here? As a real fx pro trader, what might my motivation be? I basically like writing. In English, although I'm from Spain. Besides, I've gotten to where I am after a very arduous, complicated and exhausting jourmey, so I'll take whatever time off I want to do what I enjoy doing.

What will you get in this thread? My thoughts about the FX market and the Macro game as a whole. I'm rather sharp-tongued, and add to that the fact that I despise the world we live in, so you probably will skip some of my posts. However, if I were you I'd consider going the distance here. Everything that will be posted will be here for a reason, whether you like it or not. Plus, you'll also know some of my live moves in the market, and I expect you to take advantage off them.

What will you NOT get in this thread? The'Holy Grail' (I for one don't kno what it is). I will talk to you in a serious manner here. I will treat you with respect. This means that I won't bull**** you or sell you anything of what has cost me so much to arrive at, for if I did it would mean I don't value it enough, like 99-9% of the crap-sellers outhere. No. Here you will (an donly if you really want to) get the real sort of info to grow yourself as a trader. If you're already a grown-up, then it'll be good of you to participate with your insight.

OK, we're all set. Time to start posting and FXing a bit. Enjoy your stay.

EraNik
Click to expand...


sounds like you will fit right in here ;)

welcome
N
 
FX View - Market Talk: EUR/USD and that 1.20 'magic' level

New market commentary available.

See full post here:
http://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2014/12/30/market-talk-eurusd-and-that-1-20-magic-level/

"As you can see from the attached weekly chart, the pair is presently hitting the bottom line of a long-term triangle (assuming it is correctly drawn, that’s the beauty of fine art), as well as nearing a key value area in the 1.21-1.16 region."

"...I do see value in those calling for joining the long scenario in the pair from a technical analysis perspective (hence why you see the attached chart)."

EraNik
 
FX View: Long-term GBP/CAD (+ more)

Hi,

since GBP is the really volatile currency (according to its price action dynamics seen in my model, that is), I'm getting some trading info in some of its related pairs. I'm discussing it here:
http://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2015/01/05/fx-view-long-term-gbpcad-gbpnzd/

"I'm a seller and have been selling GBP/CAD in the mid 1.80XXs, will add more @ 1.82, 1.83 and 1.85, will take a stop-loss on the full scenario above recent highs, and have set-up a take-profit area starting @ 1.75. "

* I also give insight on GBP/NZD's long-term run view. *

EraNik
 
MASTER KEY: A must-watch documentary

Full post here: http://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2015/01/05/a-must-watch-documentary/

Follow this LINK: http://letitbit.net/download/27701....nd_the_Transformation_of_the_Economy.avi.html

"This is one of those videos that SHOULD go viral; unfortunately, it has to be promoted like hell just to get a fair amount of clicks and views. I am leaning towards the macabre thought that ‘we’ as human beings like to be treated with disrespect and humiliated, work as slaves for no major purpose at all…..and all in the name of a supposed ‘freedom’."

EraNik
 
FX View: Short-Term EUR/USD

Let's get involved with this pair. It's on a roll (down) for some 800 pips now, something which ranks amongst the largest unidirectional (liquidataion) moves in its entire history.

"I'm buying EUR/USD @ 1.1915, stop on a close under 1.18 aiming @ 1.23-1.25; will position a trailing stop order if/when 1.20 is cleared back up again."

EraNik
 
FX VIew: EUR/USD (+)

Full post here: https://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2015/01/19/fx-view-eurusd/

Excerpt: "I’m buying EUR/USD @ 1.1550, stop on a close below 1.14, target 1.2050"

In the post there is another signal worht watching in my opinion. I promise I'll be back shortly with an analysis of the 'party' we had last week. You'll find the quote in the post quite spot on given circumstances.

EraNik
 
FX View: GBP/NZD trade

I'm taking a short position in GBP/NZD @ 2.0050, this is in line with the medium term scenario as shown by my model (for now), so it will be on ample room on either end, with a close above 2.0520 for stop-loss and a 1.90 initial target, 1.85 final.

We may apply a ladder approach, whereby we might be better off overall in the scenario as we'd have a better effective entry cost at the following levels (if seen first): 2.02 and 2.04. They would also go with the same s/l and t/p levels.

EraNik
 
The CHF situation (and the malpractices around it)

HI everyone,

back to regular posting with a variation. I will come with audio posts as I find my talk to be faster than my typing (guess you found that out, too). First test post here regarding the CHF market shock event of the past, and what does it mean for us small/mid traders. Hope you find it useful.

AUDIO LINK

EraNik

-------------
Alternatively: https://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2015/01/28/audible-posts-2/
 
EraNik said:
HI everyone,

back to regular posting with a variation. I will come with audio posts as I find my talk to be faster than my typing (guess you found that out, too). First test post here regarding the CHF market shock event of the past, and what does it mean for us small/mid traders. Hope you find it useful.

AUDIO LINK

EraNik

-------------
Alternatively: https://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2015/01/28/audible-posts-2/
Click to expand...


Another broker, supporting retail clients and forgiving negative balances . So it's a bit of help.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-...its-mostly-foreign-negative-balance-customers

Your audio, OK, clear. But maybe turn the record volume up a bit, I had to have it full this side to hear you.

Cheers.
 
Thanks spinola for the comment, I'll bear that in mind. that what test should be for, anyway :)
 
FX View: GBP moves smell really bad

I'm not trusting the current GBP surges across the board (bar the USD -where anyway has shown extreme downside resilience- or the CHF, for obvious reasons), and it's not just me talking my own book (which it is, as the bearish scenario fight goes on with me and the GBP blasted crosses), but the big discrepancies that I see in my model's charts.

Full link here:
https://vanorton76.wordpress.com/2015/01/29/gbp-smells-bad-really-really-but-hey-really-bad/

If you just want the audio clip: https://mega.co.nz/#!TUkmlK7Q!XnCcrRPhDFfRyJvWCHkgJwPBUQv5uF-jxjotp1yEX38

EraNik
 
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