FX Market, Monthly Thread: June 2004

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Continuing from the last month:

holding 2 positions:

Long [email protected] with 1st tgt at 1.2400. Moved stop to entry point. (now trading at 1.2245/9)

Short USDCAD @1.3631; stop at 1.3695, tgt 1.3350. Moving stop to entry point after an hour bar close below 1.3590 (now trading at 1.3607/12)

:)
 

Welshmal

Active member
110 1
Rezo, I note you have closed your long on the Euro but surely after this current reverse action the charts indicate north all the way.
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Morning Everyone!

Triangle on 60 min GBP chart. We are testing possible break upside.

As we see, target is around 1.8530 (130 pips), but I think we can get as high as 1.8600

I have an entry order at 1.8412 with 20 pip stop.

Good Luck!
 

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rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Order triggered at 1.8412.

s/l 20 pips

will be closing half position at +50 pips and let the rest run for 1.8600. Move stop to entry point on +30 pip
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Hi everyone.

For tomorrow, I will be looking to sell EURJPY on break below its Friday low. The low was around 131.95. I will have a stop sell order at 131.90 with 20 pips stop loss order and 50 pips take profit order. We have a BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting in Asian session, which can get the Yen moving.
Euro is definitely on defensive, and selling EURUSD may be an option. Maybe after/if it recovers slightly above 1.2050.
Selling EURGBP is also an option. it may form a double top around current levels of 0.6620. stop loss here will be 10 pips and target of 30 pips because of the pip cost.

Good Luck!

Rezo
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
No trades for today.
EURJPY made some serious gains today, but still it doesn't rule out the downside movement possibilities. For now lets watch it moving, and I may consider selling it tomorrow as well as selling the EURUSD. I may seek to sell EURUSD on retest of today's' 1.2090 high or maybe even slightly lower. We have a lot of data due tomorrow, so lets have a pulse on those as well. Same thing with GBP. It also looks weak at this point against USD and even weaker than the single currency. Its easily seen on EURGBP movement today, and therefore selling this pair is no more an option at this point.
Selling AUDUSD is also possibility, and it looks like it can easily try to retest the slightly below 6800 May lows, where some profit taking and maybe even buying can be seen.
Once again, lets not ignore fundamentals as they are pretty much what move the market lately, and if those go in line with latest USD strengthening, i.e. if those will be USD positive, then we may expect for further strength coming on side of USD.
 

rezo_s

Established member
511 1
Mistake after a mistake...

reasons: a lot, and mainly my own

Just want to write and share with everyone what I did and what happened to me...
First two months of this year were quiet good and made above 5.5% in Jan. The made more than 10% in February. In March stated the problems. In the begining of March we were well up in more than 5% profit on buying USDJPY and then followed sharp losses on EURJPY and USDCHF, which took me in loss, but still managed to take the March to slightly more than 1% of loss. April was a desaster with loss of 10%, follwed by another 2,88% loss last month...
Thats when the real misakes came into the picture. Once you start changing your and going for desparate mesures, thats when you are going inot deeper problems. I tried to sell GBPUSD last week on rate annoumcement and trade went sharply in my direction about 60 pips. It all happened so quickly, and reversed back to upside that I didnt put na stp loss, and as those who read a bit of my posts know how much am I against mental stops... thats the situation I went into and closed the trade with a loss of 170 pips... Decsion to go for 20 pips stop losses and trading fundamentals was a mistake and I should have sticked to my system without trying to trade fundamentals. Just had to take them into consideration and not trade them. Today was another fiasco. I tried to short Euro on CPI announcments when it jumped from 2060 to 2035 on the announcment. Same thing happened as with cable last week - it jumped sharply higher, I wanted to close for less stop loss, but its impossible... thats why I never traded announcements, but depsarate times made me do one mistake after another. I should have just taken a break after last week, but I didnt, because I wanted to recover some losses... always a mistake...

anyway, I will be away for the rest of the week, and will resume my trading and post as always here starting next week. Should have done it for this week, but....

when you have a system, you should stick to it. That was alwasy the rule. But once you have investors and you try to cut the losees, rcover and so on, you make mistakes. Nothing but the original system. If you know it works for a long period and you have losses for a month, 2 - it happens. There is no trading without losses... So.. to sum up... yes, fundamentals will be taken into consideration, but not to change the trading approach, but to avoid losses...

Till next week,

Rezo
 

Welshmal

Active member
110 1
Rezo,
Your honesty is a credit to you. Been there (well still there), but what it demonstrates is from big players like yourself to the smallest (me) stagergy is everything. Trading news and chasing losses is something that rings far too many bells. The point is simple at what ever level we trade: Stick to the stratergy.
 
 
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