fx 53 trend following system

[SandyW]

I was trying to be helpful in my own way

Just letting you know that behind those arrows is nothing magical or new there is going to be an indicator condition that is most probably on every charting program you can find.

It is most probably something quite simple which does not mean thats a bad thing, KISS is good but I can't help think it's a simple crossing indicator disguised behind the arrows to sell for that lovely sum especially as he does not disclose the conditions behind the signal.

What happens when visual trader updates their charts (like they do) and you can't use them anymore and the vendor has decided to retire from system selling you will have no idea what it is you were trading.

I myself in the early days paid up to £100 for some indicators and actually found myself a little more dedicated to the system from having spent that much money so perhaps £600 and you WILL make it work for you lol

Anyway it's your money!

Hi Cryten,

Thanks for that. I can certainly follow what you are saying, and your opinion (when expressed clearly like that!) is to be respected. I do not argue at all.

I would certainly like to have arrived at a position where I can do my own thing, and maybe someday, after more struggle, I will. I do in fact experiment and research quite a lot. In the meantime I need to be trading, not just experimenting, and I need something that works, even if only for the time being.

One thought: I imagine that if one buys the FX53 system one will in fact get to see the code, because it will become evident when the trading system is displayed in VT. That means one would not be stuck in the future, and could modify it if necessary. Am I making a totally wrong assumption?

 

[stevespray]

I think if you read the FX53 website they imply that you will be given a written copy of the rules. I imagine that this would contain the rules behind the indicator? FX53 does seem fairly flexible in terms of different timeframe trading. The results posted on the website are for a single timeframe with a fixed set of rules. I notice that the current trade is doing very nicely.

Steve.

 

[systemcoder]

Oh jeeze your gonna spend £600 quid on some arrows that are programmed most probably from a cross of two indicators, looks like it could be the QQE. Looks like visual trading charts and the guy could have got it programmed free here Visual Trading Systems User Forums (Powered by Invision Power Board).

I know wat I'm doing this weekend, slapping up a website and sorting out some nice looking arrows.

Hi cryten
I have followed with great interest your threads in other forums like forexfactory. i look forward to see your ideas/comments regarding this system.

 

[SandyW]

I think if you read the FX53 website they imply that you will be given a written copy of the rules. I imagine that this would contain the rules behind the indicator? FX53 does seem fairly flexible in terms of different timeframe trading. The results posted on the website are for a single timeframe with a fixed set of rules. I notice that the current trade is doing very nicely.

Steve.

Hi Steve,

Yes, doing very nicely! If only!

As to the rules, you get instructions/rules on how to use the system, not the coding rules. But as I said before, I guess the coding is transparent when you have the system loaded into VT.

The system does allow a lot of scope for discretionary trading, and is definitely not a set and forget system, as you can see. As with any system, computerised or on paper, it would be difficult for a trading novice to apply from day one (in my opinion!).

The published results are a reflection of the vendor's own trading. For example, the staking policy is consistent for the first 30 or so trades and then becomes quite erratic in terms of £pp. Stakes do not rise 100% in line with the bank, and the % of bank at risk appears to reduce considerably in the later trades. I am only looking at the £pp, and haven't delved into the stop levels which were applied. But there was definitely a change of staking policy during the period.

It is intriguing that the equity curve is pretty much a straight line, with very modest draw downs. I would have expected a slight upward curve, but the profit factor has tended to decrease (ignoring the current trade).

The big profit currently showing on the open trade is down to a big stake as well as to the price movement.

Have you looked at VT, or used it?

 

[stevespray]

Not looked at VT to be honest.

With regards to staking on the published results - FX53 seem to state that this is a fixed rule version of the system with no human intervention. You mention the position sizing. I'm taking a stab in the dark here but I'm assuming that the size is based upon 'risk per trade'. In your post you are assuming that the stops work like Concept FX and are uniform in nature - this may not be the case with FX53. My guess (based on coments on the video's) is that the stop size is calculated differently for each trade. Therefore the stake will vary, not just because of the size of the bank, but also due to the stop distance from the entry point.

So the math would be thus;

Position size = (Risk Per Trade) divided by (Stop Size)

Therefore, a trade which initially had a stop of say 100 pips would have double the stake size of a trade which was risking 200 pips.

Steve.

 

[Scanjet]

'Risk per trade' is the sensible way of doing it. Looking at fx53, one enters trades based on the arrows with a stoploss set a certain number of points below the arrow (assuming an up bet) Rather than diving in as soon as the trend changes you need to wait for an arrow that has a better entry point ie your entry-stop is small so your bet can be bigger in points, thus retaining the same risk per bet but with potentially a better profit profile given the uptrend. That is the way to make money trading.

 

[cryten]

Hi sandy, with VT there is no guarantee you will see the logic behind the indicators as the code can be password protected. In some instances yes it can be obvious if all the indicators are displayed when you load the trading system and the arrows appear as all of them seem to indicate at the same time for example(In vt it has to be coded as a trading system to get the arrows and to alert) But from what I can tell I don't think that is the case here and I believe the logic is pretty well hidden.

If there are definite rules supplied to replicate his results exactly then imo it might be worth the money for the plug in and play aspect just bare in mind if the logic is not disclosed you won't really know why you are taking trades and for sake of argument say you become profitable with this system and for whatever reason you are restricted from using the alerts anymore and you became dependent on it then that might turn out to be a real bummer!

But you must realize even a system with 100% accurate entries can be unprofitable if all the other elements are missing (The exit, good money management)

Actually I'm so frustrated with mine at the minute, I need to spend more time on working out the exits. Did a months rough backtesting on the Dow yesterday which yieled 1200 points sl 40 inlc spread tp 100 inlc spread only taking trades after US open.

My system is quite crude lol but I like it

 

[cryten]

Here's a 15 min FTSE chart. Don't worry i'm not going to hijack this thread any longer. Good luck to anyone who purchases it, I don't strictly hate vendors but I have spent enough money on them in the early days and on initial thoughts was shocked people were considering paying so much for a seemingly simple indicator but I apologize if I offended any of you.

 

[SandyW]

Not looked at VT to be honest.

With regards to staking on the published results - FX53 seem to state that this is a fixed rule version of the system with no human intervention. You mention the position sizing. I'm taking a stab in the dark here but I'm assuming that the size is based upon 'risk per trade'. In your post you are assuming that the stops work like Concept FX and are uniform in nature - this may not be the case with FX53. My guess (based on coments on the video's) is that the stop size is calculated differently for each trade. Therefore the stake will vary, not just because of the size of the bank, but also due to the stop distance from the entry point.

So the math would be thus;

Position size = (Risk Per Trade) divided by (Stop Size)

Therefore, a trade which initially had a stop of say 100 pips would have double the stake size of a trade which was risking 200 pips.



Steve.

As regards position sizing, yes of course. That is why I specifically said I had not delved back into graphs etc to try to work out where the stops were set. I haven't looked back at my post, but I don't recall suggesting that the stops were set as per Concept. In fact I know they are not because the vendor clearly shows his flexible stop policy.

Having graphed out the position sizes simply expressed as £pp, I see a rising dead straight line until around the 30th trade when the position sizes start to fluctuate wildly, unconnected to bank. That is why I say the policy must have changed.

There has clearly been human intervention, it screams out at you!

The reason I am looking at it in this sort of detail is the same reason that I did extensive analysis of Concept's results. To get a handle on how the system will be to use in practice, and to assess whether there is a good prospect of replicating similar performance in future real time. We all know that no system will work if it does not suit the individual trader, don't we. That is also a good reason to get familiar with VT beforehand, rather than just wait until the package arrives with the post, and just assume everything will fall into place.

Finally, it does seem that starting with minimal stakes one may be able to pull in a regular monthly profit.

 

[explorer626]

Here's a 15 min FTSE chart. Don't worry i'm not going to hijack this thread any longer. Good luck to anyone who purchases it, I don't strictly hate vendors but I have spent enough money on them in the early days and on initial thoughts was shocked people were considering paying so much for a seemingly simple indicator but I apologize if I offended any of you.

Cryten,
I can see you are looking for improvements on your trading,and sharing your search
route, but I don't see the point of putting up on this thread ,normal charts without some possible entry, exit, or stop points to be discussed. We can all get charts that we dont Know what to do with ! ! What are the white lines on those charts ?
:innocent:
Thanks , Explorer

 

[SandyW]

Cryten,
I can see you are looking for improvements on your trading,and sharing your search
route, but I don't see the point of putting up on this thread ,normal charts without some possible entry, exit, or stop points to be discussed. We can all get charts that we dont Know what to do with ! ! What are the white lines on those charts ?
:innocent:
Thanks , Explorer

Hi explorer,

At first I thought the same. But then I thought Cryten is trying to make us think! Just looking at the graph, can you imagine where you might enter and where you might exit?!

Perhaps you could construct the graph yourself?

I'm going to have a go!

 

[stevespray]

As regards position sizing, yes of course. That is why I specifically said I had not delved back into graphs etc to try to work out where the stops were set. I haven't looked back at my post, but I don't recall suggesting that the stops were set as per Concept. In fact I know they are not because the vendor clearly shows his flexible stop policy.

Having graphed out the position sizes simply expressed as £pp, I see a rising dead straight line until around the 30th trade when the position sizes start to fluctuate wildly, unconnected to bank. That is why I say the policy must have changed.

There has clearly been human intervention, it screams out at you!

The reason I am looking at it in this sort of detail is the same reason that I did extensive analysis of Concept's results. To get a handle on how the system will be to use in practice, and to assess whether there is a good prospect of replicating similar performance in future real time. We all know that no system will work if it does not suit the individual trader, don't we. That is also a good reason to get familiar with VT beforehand, rather than just wait until the package arrives with the post, and just assume everything will fall into place.

Finally, it does seem that starting with minimal stakes one may be able to pull in a regular monthly profit.

Okay - I'm going to follow your advice and study the results more closely.

I think they do a video summary for each months trades.

Steve.

 

[Scanjet]

Hi explorer,

At first I thought the same. But then I thought Cryten is trying to make us think!
I'm going to have a go!

That's the best strategy you've yet employed.

 

[Scanjet]

Interesting, isn't it? On this blog-site we have rookies, veterans, seniors et al.... The problem with this is it conveys the wrong impression. One could be forgiven for assuming the veterans etc must all be wiz-traders. Well, I could train my dog to keep pressing the enter key and before long he will become a veteran trader.........

 

[SandyW]

Interesting, isn't it? On this blog-site we have rookies, veterans, seniors et al.... The problem with this is it conveys the wrong impression. One could be forgiven for assuming the veterans etc must all be wiz-traders. Well, I could train my dog to keep pressing the enter key and before long he will become a veteran trader.........

Sorry Scanjet, but a very very disappointing and futile post from you, which does nothing either in the way of asking a pertinent question, floating a reasonable trading idea, or indeed of giving worthwhile advice. A waste of space on the page. I can't even see that it would have done your ego any favours.

The categories you refer to are devised by T2W for their own purposes. We're not stupid. Why would we imagine they have any significance as regards trading experience let alone success? I for one am only here because I have found trading so hard, and have failed over and over. I hope to eventually get to a situation where I am "unconsciously competent". If I can learn from systems that others have devised by analysing them, or even by buying and using them, I will. Even if there is risk of making a mistake. The best lessons are usually learnt from a mistake. And I hope I won't join the "I told you so" brigade, or the new brigade now recruiting, called "I could teach my Dog".

I think many such people on T2W are actually failed traders who are bitter, rather than people who are willing to step back, take a good look at themselves and learn, and then pass on their learning. Very likely that such people are classed as Veteran! "One Foot in the Grave", funny in its way, but cynical. I think there should be a category called Curmugeon. Perhaps T2W should organise a monthly vote for who qualifies.

You started the Concept-FX thread, but even there you do not appear to have made any positive contribution.

So what do you say? Would I be wrong to predict the content and tone of your response?

 

[Scanjet]

Why would we imagine they have any significance as regards trading experience let alone success?QUOTE]


Unfortunately, many do.

 

[stevespray]

Why would we imagine they have any significance as regards trading experience let alone success?QUOTE]


Unfortunately, many do.

Scanjet - What is your point?

FWIW I trade reasonably sucessfully and have done for many years. I know many on here who are in the same boat. That doesnt stop us exploring other avenues which is what many of the T2W threads are about. This thread is to explore the products offered by FX53. Sure, it could be a perfectly 'back fitted' system with a string of hypothetical results. On the other hand it might have some mileage. It doesnt matter how many posts someone has made - this doesnt make them an expert. What you can tell however is what kind of person they are based on the percentage of posts which contain quality. Others consistantly post nonsense or seek to drag people down with meaningless attacks. Please dont let yourself drift into the latter!

Steve.

 

[SandyW]

Sniper Forex and Alpari

Hi Guys,

Just to say that I am running a free trial of Sniper Forex. Sniper is very much cheaper than FX53, and all in all looks a far better prospect.

I am finding Sniper to be very intuitive, and it runs really well on the free MT4 platform. I am using a demo account with Alpari.co.uk, and getting their free data feed. There is no time limit on the free data feed.

With Alpari and the MT4 platform you can trade forex straight off the screen or you can simply use their data and the signals for spreadbetting your usual account.

 

[wilmer55]

Hi Sandy

As a matter of interest did Sniper pick up any of the dollar movements this morning?

Hi Guys,

Just to say that I am running a free trial of Sniper Forex. Sniper is very much cheaper than FX53, and all in all looks a far better prospect.

I am finding Sniper to be very intuitive, and it runs really well on the free MT4 platform. I am using a demo account with Alpari.co.uk, and getting their free data feed. There is no time limit on the free data feed.

With Alpari and the MT4 platform you can trade forex straight off the screen or you can simply use their data and the signals for spreadbetting your usual account.

 

[SandyW]

Hi Sandy

As a matter of interest did Sniper pick up any of the dollar movements this morning?

Daily chart staying short on GBPUSD and EURUSD. Daily chart is staying short on CHFUSD (I closed my Concept trade yesterday while in profit, when Sniper 1 hour chart stoploss was hit).