Fundamental - Technical - Speculators - Smart Money

[Vicorka]

surprise, the news came out early by mistake.

Peter

I don't believe in mistakes on that level. Nobody will be able to prove anything in the court but it is clear that the GOOG drop is a game ans somebody made big $$$.

Not TA, not FA would be able to tell ahead at any time that GOO will drop 10% down on October 18. However TA show that GOOG was pumped and overbought. TA suggested to close long position in GOOG during first two week of oct. Again, see my chart on October4
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/stocks/158568-buy-google.html

 

[new_trader]

Yet, my main point is that now you cannot relay on FA as 20 years ago.

You aren't even making sense. If somebody wants to buy a stock with a 7% dividend yield, what should they look at if not the company fundamentals? What I think you are trying to say is you cannot predict short term price movements based on fundamentals...well Derr! I don't think anybody proclaimed doing that was possible, not today, not 20 years ago, not 50+ years ago...

 

[wackypete2]

I don't believe in mistakes on that level. Nobody will be able to prove anything in the court but it is clear that the GOOG drop is a game ans somebody made big $$$.

Yes, I absolutely agree with that. I meant that the news was out early by surprise to the overall market participants.

Peter

 

[Splitlink]

Yet none of that explains yesterday's move in google. Find me someone who said on wed that google will have a 10% drop on thursday.

If you got out based on whatever signals you use then great, but make no mistake that move was a reaction to news that no one could have seen coming. Traders who wanted to exit at close just before the earnings news got slammed becasue, surprise, the news came out early by mistake.

Peter

You are right, no one could see it coming but I was nurturing a Nasdaq long trade rise right up until the fall. Fortunately, I had moved my Stop Loss up close but, even so,I closed out manually and got a very fast fill from my SB company. No doubt, someone, somewhere, will blame their losses on them but it was their own fault.

 

[new_trader]

You are right, no one could see it coming but I was nurturing a Nasdaq long trade rise right up until the fall. Fortunately, I had moved my Stop Loss up close but, even so,I closed out manually and got a very fast fill from my SB company. No doubt, someone, somewhere, will blame their losses on them but it was their own fault.

Why do people say no one could see it coming? Do you really think there are traders out there who are as thick as traders in this forum? The people who saw it coming knew exactly wot is wot...

Why do people think this is all brand new? I'm baffled...

 

[new_trader]

Anyway, I'll stick to the way I trade and invest, a proven method going back 100+ years regardless of some of the absolute nonsense being written here...

UNSUBSCRIBED

 

[wackypete2]

Why do people say no one could see it coming? Do you really think there are traders out there who are as thick as traders in this forum? The people who saw it coming knew exactly wot is wot...

Why do people think this is all brand new? I'm baffled...

I agree, you're baffled. Why are you taking everything so literal. I'm sorry, the handful of insiders who engineered that knew it was coming, the other 99.5% of market participants didn't. Better?

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

UNSUBSCRIBED

And that's your answer?

Peter

 

[Billy Gates]

I agree, you're baffled. Why are you taking everything so literal. I'm sorry, the handful of insiders who engineered that knew it was coming, the other 99.5% of market participants didn't. Better?

Peter

I don't quite agree that nobody else knew. It would all depend on the type of strategy you follow. I am sure there were many traders who were short google but hadn't expected such a big drop so soon. They probably expected this range to be covered over many more days.

 

[Splitlink]

I don't believe in mistakes on that level. Nobody will be able to prove anything in the court but it is clear that the GOOG drop is a game ans somebody made big $$$.

Not TA, not FA would be able to tell ahead at any time that GOO will drop 10% down on October 18. However TA show that GOOG was pumped and overbought. TA suggested to close long position in GOOG during first two week of oct. Again, see my chart on October4
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/stocks/158568-buy-google.html

I just read the first sentence. The rise of 400% was the signal to take profits, Now, whether a fundamentalist would have seen a cheap share 6 months previously, I don't know. That is the difference between FA and TA and it all boils down to what the earnings are going to be in October 2012, 20% less? Maybe, an FA investor would not have bought the company then, either. That is the difference. FA investors buy when the price is cheap and they do not chase. In fact, if he had a lot of shares he might have considered some covered options. If he had, he would have the shares and the option money, too. and if he had got them called he would have the option money and have sold the shares at a lower but, still, a more profitable price than when he had bought them.

 

[wackypete2]

I don't quite agree that nobody else knew. It would all depend on the type of strategy you follow. I am sure there were many traders who were short google but hadn't expected such a big drop so soon. They probably expected this range to be covered over many more days.

So in other words on that day at that time they didn't see it coming. Don't misinterpret that phrase to mean everyone who didn't see it coming must have lost. If I won a $million lottery tonight, I certainly didn't see it coming, but that's a good thing that happened to me!

Just a thought...I'm sure there are people who may have been short thinking it will drop within a week or so , but don't necessarily check their account every day, where will you think they'd be if say next Tuesday they check their account and Google is back near pre drop prices? Probably didn't see it coming :cheesy:

Peter

 

[wackypete2]

I just read the first sentence. The rise of 400% was the signal to take profits, Now, whether a fundamentalist would have seen a cheap share 6 months previously, I don't know. That is the difference between FA and TA and it all boils down to what the earnings are going to be in October 2012, 20% less? Maybe, an FA investor would not have bought the company then, either. That is the difference. FA investors buy when the price is cheap and they do not chase. In fact, if he had a lot of shares he might have considered some covered options. If he had, he would have the shares and the option money, too. and if he had got them called he would have the option money and have sold the shares at a lower but, still, a more profitable price than when he had bought them.

Good stuff, Split.
Something that seems to get lost often here is there are plenty of ways to play the markets profitable. Just because someone got a particular trade right or wrong doesn't make them professionals or amateurs. Any handful of instances cannot justify that TA or FA or dart throwing or whatever, does or does not work.

Peter

 

[Billy Gates]

The rise of 400% was the signal to take profits

Why would that be a signal to take profits? The same could have been said at 100,200 or 300% . How many thought that the stock was going to the moon?

 

[Vicorka]

If I won a $million lottery tonight, I certainly didn't see it coming, Peter

In order to win a lottery you have to buy a ticket. If you did not buy a ticket you are out of the game.

If you were short on GOOG because you saw bearish sentiment you have got in one day what you expected to achieve in longer period of time. If you were not in short you are out of the game. If you were in long something wrong with your analysis no matter whether it is FA or TA...

P.S. Again everything depends what time frame you trade. If you intend to hold GOOG for a couple of years...

 

[Billy Gates]

So in other words on that day at that time they didn't see it coming. Don't misinterpret that phrase to mean everyone who didn't see it coming must have lost. If I won a $million lottery tonight, I certainly didn't see it coming, but that's a good thing that happened to me!

Just a thought...I'm sure there are people who may have been short thinking it will drop within a week or so , but don't necessarily check their account every day, where will you think they'd be if say next Tuesday they check their account and Google is back near pre drop prices? Probably didn't see it coming :cheesy:

Peter

When i open a trade there are many times when the market direction is unclear and I get out on the day, Then there are times when the market has gone through the unclear phase and the trend direction has become clearer. In that phase of the market I am quite happy to remain in my trade overnight, or even longer.

take care for example the recent upmove on cable, I started off daytrading it, when the trend became clear I remained in the trade. At the time i had no idea how long this move would take or how much it would move on a certain day, it could have happened in two days instead of a week. But the end was clear.

 

[Splitlink]

Why would that be a signal to take profits? The same could have been said at 100,200 or 300% . How many thought that the stock was going to the moon?

Yes, you are quite right, It depends on the investor. But it depends, also, on the price that he paid for them in the first place and he may have had them for years if he had thought them cheap, then. Personally, I don't think that GOOG have been cheap on fundamental values for a very long time, if at all, but, as I said, I don't know. How much porcentage of debt were they carrying?

 

[Vicorka]

Why would that be a signal to take profits? The same could have been said at 100,200 or 300% . How many thought that the stock was going to the moon?

400% rise could never be a TA signal to take a profit. You cannot base you analysis on price action only. You have to analyse volume and volatility together with price. Only then you may see coming changes and explain processes behind price movement.

 

[wackypete2]

When i open a trade there are many times when the market direction is unclear and I get out on the day, Then there are times when the market has gone through the unclear phase and the trend direction has become clearer. In that phase of the market I am quite happy to remain in my trade overnight, or even longer.

take care for example the recent upmove on cable, I started off daytrading it, when the trend became clear I remained in the trade. At the time i had no idea how long this move would take or how much it would move on a certain day, it could have happened in two days instead of a week. But the end was clear.

How is the end clear beforehand? If trading was that easy we'd all be rich beyond our dreams.

Your post illustrates what I sad in the previous post. We trade differently but that doesn't mean one of us is right and one is wrong. We just don't have the same expectations of where we want to take profits or what time frame we are looking at.

Peter

 

[Vicorka]

I just read the first sentence. The rise of 400% ...

1. It is not 400 it "40% in three months does not looks like natural"

2. it was not the signal to take profit - read to the end...

You are like TV reporter who takes the words out of contest. You should become a politician.

 

[Billy Gates]

You cannot base you analysis on price action only. You have to analyse volume and volatility together with price. Only then you may see coming changes and explain processes behind price movement.

I disagree. Price is the only thing that will define the trend, the volume can and does show data that can be not be confined to a set of rules. You only need to study accumulation/distribution phases to see this fact.

But if you remove volume from the picture, price will still show a clearer picture. whereas if you removed price from the picture the volume indication will only be a guide.