FTSE100- June

[Fluke]

KJH.
Here is my thought on the chart again re post 532. I am more of a position trader than interday,even though I do try and work with interday charts.
I must say you are streets ahead of me with these fib moves but I am convinced they work and am working to improve my skills on this,lol.

 

[KJH]

KJH.
I must say you are streets ahead of me with these fib moves but I am convinced they work and am working to improve my skills on this,lol.

Nope, I'm not streets ahead of anyone Fluke.
I've just read and studied what you are now looking at.
Others, including yourself have studied and read other methods/thoughts that I haven't seen yet.
That's what we are all here for, I hope !
To sharing info and all benefit. Like others, I only wish more would share so it doesn't feel like your talking to yourself at times !!

Aside.... I'm feeling flat right now cause at the moment I feel like I've stuffed up.
I closed shorts earlier at 4500 (basis futures) and of course the market is still moving down albeit a drift lower.
I closed due to FOMC tonight and I'll be well an truly in bed ( 2.45 am when that announcement is made) and don't want to be on the wrong side of the market.
Who knows which way it is going to jump other than the ftse has been coiling for a long time now....Everyone wants it to go up......
The Nasdaq--market leader at the moment imho is still out in front.
I'm expecting, longer term, another thrust up before we test the lower boundaries again--just to take all the stops out......And then of course do the same thing at the bottom end....
Remember--price is always right tho.
Holiday in the US on Monday..... Up into holiday and down out of it or vice versa ???
cya
kjh

 

[bracke]

I am finding it very tempting to take a long trade on the ftse.
It appears to have found support at 4490.
This is where opinion rears it's ugly head.
Mr Greenspan will not want to frighten the markets, neither will Mr Bush with an election in November.
Therefore a 0.25% increase which is a relief to the US market and they celebrate with an increase, maybe a large one.
ftse has been getting ready for a breakout one way or the other and here is the opportunity to break up
BUT its all opinion . I could take a small trade and put in a tight stoploss but I don't think it is worth it for a few £.
Any there any others out there with the same or totally different thoughts ?

Regards

bracke

 

[oatman]

One question.
If everyone thinks the same as you, how is the market set when he announces the expected?
Long?

 

[bracke]

oatman

"If everyone thinks the same as you, how is the market set when he announces the expected?
Long?"

Logically, yes but everyone does not think the same as me. My understanding is that volumes are down so people are staying out untill after the decision.

Regards

bracke

 

[oatman]

You don't really believe that. You are the only one that thinks that?
I'm not saying it's not a good bet, I'm just pointing out what I saw.
It's a fair play for a reaction with a tight stop.

 

[mully]

SP500 has been rising into the interest rate decision (up 5.6% since May low). That suggests that the market is long/bullish of the rate decision.

 

[trade-at-will]

Hi Bracke

I feel that the 25bp rise is well and truely discounted....its unlikely to be 50bp (too much of a shock to the system, especially in an election year). Could be left unchanged, but unlikely, but that would be bullish,,,or would it just cause concern as it would suggest the Fed sees some dark clouds over the horizon. Overall I think people are all awaiting for teh decision and a small rise will be a relief that the Fed is being responsible and hey interest rates at 1.25% isn't exactly a dampener, therefore I think we'll see a relief rally. My Point and fig chart for Sept Ftse is just showing signs of moving higher from a low level and there's quite a good level for stops below 4488.
TaW

 

[bracke]

oatman

I said
"Logically, yes but everyone does not think the same as me"

you replied
"You don't really believe that. You are the only one that thinks that?"

Of course I am not the only one ( and I did not say that ) but neither is there unanimity

Regards

bracke

 

[oatman]

Will, can you post a 3x3 Hilo for the same?

 

[bracke]

trade-at-will

"My Point and fig chart for Sept Ftse is just showing signs of moving higher from a low level and there's quite a good level for stops below 4488. "

I do not know a great deal about p&f charts but it does not appear to show any upward breakouts are at hand.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

Bearing in mind mully and trade-at-will's posts, is oatman's comment that the ftse is already long a valid one?

Regards

bracke

 

[oatman]

Bracke, I didn't mean the market generally as much as the short term for the play you were suggesting.
Re the P&F, the break up would be through 4500.

 

[bracke]

Oops, things have been brought into perspective as a result of the poor Chicago PMI data.
Dow has dropped and ftse followed suit down to it pivot S2 level.
Was it because of the dow or because Henman lost !

I have taken a long trade on the sept ftse when it dropped.

Nothing more to do except wait events..... and perhaps get down on my knees and pray!

Regards

bracke

 

[dc2000]

Also tentative long from 4484 sept futures would have prefered 4472 but no worries next stop 4550????

 

[dc2000]

That will teach me to wait

 

[bracke]

4550 maybe

Possible scenario ( opinion coming up so be careful )

Dow rises on good interest rate news, ftse gaps up tomorrow morning on opening, get ready to liquidate the long and open a short to catch the gap closure.

End of fairy story and everyone lived happily ever after.

And no, we don't want anyone coming in with the alternative ending.

Regards

bracke

 

[mully]

Low risk trade!!!!!

All you position takers ahead of the Fed decision have not read Piper book

"Do not open a trade at any time when, for whatever reason, risk is enhanced or is liable to become enhanced in the near future"

"if you trade ahead of the news you are not taking a low risk opportunity and if that is how you trade you are unlikely to stay in the game for long."

"low risk is essential" (his emphasis)

You are attempting to forecast the future.

 

[oatman]

If we're talking about the numbers out at 7.15, it's a little premature taking a position at 4 o'clock, to say the least.

 

[mully]

IMHO low risk versus high risk separates the pros from the amateurs.

Sorry to be brutal.