FTSE100 July 2004

Watch the 200 day MA. Is support near at hand?

In recent weeks the FTSE 100 has flirted with its 200 day MA. It has found support each time.

Is it going to be third time lucky?
 

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mully

If deliverance fails at the 200dma would the next logical support be at 4363 ? Notwithstanding S2 at 4383

Regards

bracke
 
mully said:
In recent weeks the FTSE 100 has flirted with its 200 day MA. It has found support each time.
I keep both 50 and 200 day MA's on my historical charts and note an inexorable approach towards the 200. It's been trading well below this morning and has only done so for single days on 27th March and 17th May since May 2003. It may hold today but not optimistic beyond the next week or so. The 200 is still on a very slight upward trend but its declining tragectory has been fairly smooth for months. Both the Dow & SPX are now trading well below their 200 MA's.
 
Peterpr

"Both the Dow & SPX are now trading well below their 200 MA's."

You have confused me with the above. The chart below shows the opposite, am I missing something ?

Regards

bracke
 

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Correction

Both Dow & SPX still trading well ABOVE their respective 200 MA's - and 50's for that matter.
 
bracke said:
Peterpr

"Both the Dow & SPX are now trading well below their 200 MA's."

You have confused me with the above. The chart below shows the opposite, am I missing something ?

Regards

bracke

Bracke - sorry - I posted the correction before I saw your last post - You've got it spot on
 
Peterpr

Thank you. Now go to the bottom of the class for that mistake and don't backchat me and say that you are already there.

Regards

bracke
 
I have been looking at the estimated targets that a lot of us have posted and compared these with the fib grid 4601/4291 and see the retracement of .786=4358.
Over the months the ftse 100 has retraced .786 on a number of occasions.
Some of us are very bearish to day,so lets see how it goes.
 
The chart below with my trendlines in black appears to suggest that the resistance is at approx4450. Would the panel care to comment please.

Regards

bracke
 

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200 day MA support still holding.

Here is the hourly equivalent of the 200 day MA (thick red line) showing that FTSE100 still clinging/working around it.

(PS: Do not think there is anything magical about 200 day other than lots of people watch it)
 

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mully

(
PS: Do not think there is anything magical about 200 day other than lots of people watch it)

So does that make it a self-forecasting level. Because it is a closely watched level if enough people think it will stay above the level they will buy and keep it above.
If not enough people buy it will fall below and because of its supposed importance people will assume it will fall further and they will sell.

Notwithstanding the manipulators who pull it one way or the other to create a false situation before reversing the flow

Regards

bracke
 
...would have go back a bit...just have them writen on a piece of paper but with out trying to mke you feel silly :) or me for stating the obvious but as they are unfilled gaps. I guess they are from the last time we traded at that level so just have to go back until you hit 4357:)
 
SoupDragon

I guess they are from the last time we traded at that level so just have to go back until you hit 4357:)

From my records 26 March

btw I feel silly on a regular basis so nothing new on that front !

Regards

bracke
 
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I'm surprised that we haven't seen a bounce from these lows especially off the 4400 level which may bode more weakness next week, 4381 is mynext level for sep
Not got position over weekend as still dazed from some of my stupidity this week, not holding good trdes long enough and holding bad trades too long has lead to a negative return this week but then i guess i'm not alone there
good weekend all i'm off for a few beers...................better make it wetherspoon given this weeks earnings.......
 
Bracke

"All patterns on the market are meaningless- unless confirmed. Once confirmed they remain of some note until negated."

You have read the book (page 183)
 
mully said:
Bracke

"All patterns on the market are meaningless- unless confirmed. Once confirmed they remain of some note until negated."

You have read the book (page 183)

Confirmed by what, the price rising / falling ? and does the pattern have to be confimed each and every time ?

Is it not fair to say that from previous experience a certain feature eg 200dma is a watershed and should be watched closely until the pattern is confirmed.

Regards

bracke
 
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