FTSE100 July 2004

[alliance]

Morning All,

Got out of my longs in good time last nt, and when markets dropped back, went long again on both. Overnight the Nikkei and HS are down, so pleasantly surprised to see b/e on trades this morn, but the day is young

Loads of results due today:

Tuesday 20 July
UK Results 6M: Britannic Smaller Companies Trust, CSR, Lorien, Northern Rock; AGM: British Airways, Burberry Group, Chloride Group, Enterprise Venture, Forminster, Johnson Matthey, Pilkington, Wyndeham Press; EGM: Pillar Property
Selected US Q1: Applied Micro Circuits Corp, Forest Laboratories Inc; Q2: Allegheny Technologies, Altria Group Inc, AutoNation, Avery Dennison Corp, Boise Cascade, Convergys Corp, CR Bard Inc, E*Trade Group Inc, EMC Corp, Ford Motor Co, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold, Golden West Financial, IMS Health, Mellon Financial Corp, Millipore Corp, Motorola Inc, RadioShack Corp, Safeco Corp, Sovereign Bancorp, Teradyne Inc, Texas Instruments, US Bancorp, Wells Fargo & Co; Q3: Health Management Associates Inc, Johnson Controls, Sanmina-SCI Corp; Q4: Linear Technology, Sun Microsystems

Some BIGGIES in there!


Economic Indicators UK: June M4/M4 lending (0930 BST), June capital issuance (0930 BST), June BBA net lending (0930 BST), June BSA mortgage lending (0930 BST), June CML mortgage lending (0930 BST), June PSNCR (0930 BST); US: June housing starts (1330 BST), June building permits (1330 BST); France: May current account (0745 BST); Germany: July ZEW economic sentiment (1000 BST)

Also, lets not 4get Bracke's friend Mr Greenspan's speech ..not certain yet when that is due....heard 3pm then 7.30pm, but does anyone know 4 sure? Watch ur screen.

Happy Trading!

 

[RogerM]

) Mr Greenspan's speech ..not certain yet when that is due....heard 3pm then 7.30pm, but does anyone know 4 sure? Watch ur screen.

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Tuesday - Jul 20, 2004

2:30 PM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to present Fed's second monetary policy report to Congress for 2004, before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to present the second monetary policy report to Congress (the first was delivered in February). He addresses the Senate Banking Committee at 2:30 p.m. ET. Market players will nervously be watching whether or not the Fed chairman will reveal any new thoughts on the inflation outlook or the pace at which interest rates will be increased in upcoming months.

Alan Greenspan Speaks! Wednesday - Jul 21, 2004

10:00 AM ET : Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan to testify on monetary policy before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington .

Speech Highlights: Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is scheduled to present the second half of his second monetary policy report to Congress (the first was delivered in February). He addresses the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 AM. Usually, the delivery on the second day is identical to the first, unless the Fed chairman believes that the financial markets misinterpreted him. The Q&A may also yield different comments.

Useful link :-

http://mam.econoday.com/calendar/US/EN/New_York/year/2004/month/07/day/20/daily/

 

[alliance]

many tnx Roger, for info and link

 

[alliance]

Wakey wakey! Where is everyone?

Bracke r u lurking?
Barjon r u still long from yesterday?
Fin and Fluke..did u guys go on hols? .lol

I have now moved stops to b/e.

 

[Finirama]

Hi Alliance,

Got back late last nite from a long weekend away. Long at 297....2 pk + divergence on the 30 min chart sugesting its just a pullback to 100ema, so closed closed half for +40 ish.

Other half is at b/e.... waiting for US, where i'm expecting a swing up to around 1100 on S&P, which could carry the FTSE above 100ema, depending on Greenspam

 

[bracke]

Good Afternoon alliance et al

Not lurking, had to go out this morning which was a pest as I just had time to see the ftse fall to 4300 and would like to have gone long at the appropriate time but knew I would not be about to monitor the trade.
As it transpired that would have been the best time to have gone long but such is life

Further results to come from the US plus of course that nice Mr Greenspan's report.

If the news from US is poor, would we take the view that the ftse will fall below the level it fell to to-day?

Regards

bracke

 

[barjon]

Belated afternoon all - been having trouble with broadband connection , got the computer back but still no phones.

alliance/ bracke - yesterday was intraday , not much beyond b/e.

bracke - why monitor? Just enter, stick your stop on and toddle off to wherever - sometimes saves a lot of anguish!! (although a big rise and an equally large drop before you got back would be irritating)

 

[bracke]

Belated afternoon all - been having trouble with broadband connection , got the computer back but still no phones.

alliance/ bracke - yesterday was intraday , not much beyond b/e.

bracke - why monitor? Just enter, stick your stop on and toddle off to wherever - sometimes saves a lot of anguish!! (although a big rise and an equally large drop before you got back would be irritating)

Wary of spikes and did not want to set a long stop because not certain it would not drop futher.
Plus, as you say, a large rise followed by a large drop would be irritating and possibly expensive.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

None too comfy being long for any length of time,especially 2day, so just closed both trades nr intra tops for net +50'ish and ~ not being a greedy person ~ I am more than happy with that!

 

[jonnyy40]

Where can you get an economic callendar for UK?http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html that's the US one.

 

[alliance]

Where can you get an economic callendar for UK?http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html that's the US one.

Jonny:
If perchance u use IG, u can register for their free MMB (Monday Morning Briefing) Newletter. Em@iled weekly with all major reports/data due for UK and US and a summary of past and current week.

HTH

 

[bracke]

Where can you get an economic callendar for UK?http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html that's the US one.

Try - www.dailyfx.com-calendar.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Morning all!

Seems I was too hasty in closing my longs and missed the big move Aint hindsight a wonderful thing..lol! Still, I made some £'s and more importantly, didn't lose any! Sitting on the sidelines today....is this a bull trap rally, or the real thing? Any thots guys?

 

[bracke]

Good Afternoon alliance et al

That nice Mr Greenspan said the right things, or at least the market thought so and up we go, for the time being.

As a result a gap resulted on opening this morning plus ftse has been steadily rising on what appears to be normal volume and has reached ( at time of typing this) 4388. pivot R2 = 4378 and R3 = 4409.
So one has to ask is it going to break 4400 and stay there.

I am looking to that opening gap and thinking it needs to be filled so have taken a small sell trade on the Sept Future at 4381 with a view to closing at 4339. If it turns down I will look to adding to my sell trades.

Regards

bracke

 

[bracke]

The attached chart shows ftse dropping to 100min ma and lifting off to finish the day at 4377 (the R2 pivot).

The R1 for tomorrow is 4400 and S1 = 4347 but remember 4339 is required to close this mornings opening gap.

As usual will be watching the US close to decide if I will have to be up early tomorrow to catch the gap closure.

Has anyone any views on to-day/tomorrow.

Regards

bracke

 

[alliance]

Has anyone any views on to-day/tomorrow

.


Well looks like we got the answer to the bull trap question..and then some!

Good call on ur gap bracke......a brave call methinks @ that time given the momentum the US had! Sept dow took a 225 point round trip..a good day if u called it right both ways tho doesn't bear thinking about if u got it wrong!

 

[bracke]

Good Morning All

Mine is the first post of the day, does that mean you are all busy watching the ftse?

US did its not infrequent late reversal last night and ftse duly obliged this morning by gaping down on opening and thus filled yesterday morning's gap in one move.

I closed my short for 61 points but should have held and got 80.

ftse has fallen just below S2 = 4316 but has now risen above maybe going to hold there for US to open before deciding on further action. Futures show dow rising by approx 10 - 15 points.

I have gone long with a target of 4377 to close this morning's gap.

Regards

bracke

 

[Finirama]

Hi Bracke,

Just closed my short (bounce off 100ema on day chart at 388) from yesterday and reversed...now long at 311...expecting a reversal today due to high volume (climax) sell off yesterday in US. If we hold 311, i'm thinking a 1-2-3 reversal on the day chart.... to close the gap at 377 (at least)

 

[Finirama]

Here are the charts to show the signals.

Left hand chart is the 30 min chart, 2 pk + divergence marking the long at 300 and 2 pk - divergence marking the short and reverse at 388.

The right hand chart is the day chart...the 2 pk + divergence is confirmed on the day chart showing a pullback to 100ema (light blue)

Possible bull scenario is that 300 marked the end of and a-b-c wave 4 correction , in which case 300 should not be breached..we should be heading north, with this (possible) 1-2-3 marking the reversal back upto start of wave a = 4600. Howver, 100 ema has been tested twice, so next test is critical and needs to break for any chance of us ever getting there.

Fin

 

[bracke]

Hello Finirama

Not being a wave or divergence person I cannot comment on those parts of your post, nor on the longer view.

Being a relative novice to trading I still keep it to the basics and it is starting to work for me - at the moment.

As usual much will depend on the US.

ftse got very close to year low this morning, wary that if US drops again ftse will go lower and through the years low and who knows after that, so I am keeping a close watch,.Don't trust those damned Yankees but Mr Greenspan is a very very nice person.

Regards

bracke