FTSE predicition end 2010

[mitchy39]

Hi all,
Had an interesting conversation today with a commodities trader, generally about the UK stock market prediction. He had a feeling the future looked very bullish, & his analogy of "think of the economy like a fire that had nearly gone out keep throwing diesel on it & eventually you have a fierce fire".

I am quite a newcomer to SB on the FTSE & my feelings were the market was moving southwards, closer to the 4700 mark come Dec however I am now taking on board what this customer had to say today.

I work at a Landrover dealership selling top end Range Rover's at £80,000, now this man was picking one up so I guess he is doing something right as I was on the wrong end of the desk. Interested to what others out there think what will happen.

 

[arabianights]

I say it gonna be pretty much where it is now (whereever that is, who gives a ****), give or take 500.

I also say anyone who claims to have the faintest idea is a liar or deluded!

 

[scose-no-doubt]

4857.31

 

[arabianights]

I guarantee it won't be 4857.31

 

[scose-no-doubt]

I also say anyone who claims to have the faintest idea is a liar or deluded!

Check and Mate

 

[scose-no-doubt]

wait there is that stale mate since we both made predictions?

 

[arabianights]

I'm not claiming to have a clue bitch, I'm just underwriting a risk

 

[oiltrader81]

According to some quantitative models that I use and to volatility estimation there will be a severe retracement before the end of the year.

If you want to know more about market forecasts you can always a have a look at my website

 

[mitchy39]

According to some quantitative models that I use and to volatility estimation there will be a severe retracement before the end of the year.

If you want to know more about market forecasts you can always a have a look at my website

Thanks for the thread , made interesting reading. I am under the same illusion that the market is in for a heavy fall. However I feel goverments are doing their best to hide any bad news to keep the markets in an upword trend. However I feel the FTSE is heading for a heavy fall (5300) by the end of Dec 10.

 

[oiltrader81]

Thanks for the thread , made interesting reading. I am under the same illusion that the market is in for a heavy fall. However I feel goverments are doing their best to hide any bad news to keep the markets in an upword trend. However I feel the FTSE is heading for a heavy fall (5300) by the end of Dec 10.

Thank you for your kind words. I think the FTSE will drop sharply too but my models give me values which ranges from 5150 to 5200. obviously those figures can be a bit drastic but the fact that they point so down makes me think. we'll see

the reaction markets had today over Bernake's ulterior QE seemed to be like a text book example of bull trap. i might be wrong but indicators,quantitative analysis, volatility and macros keep telling me the same thing: GO SHORT !!!

 

[SabreTT]

Target 4600, its where the volume is

 

[arabianights]

My latest target is 5,875.19

 

[jackypw]

Totally support you prediction.
I have some short position at 5800, been waiting for the pullback to go short more, now is 5770. still waiting for the overbought indicator. I have the same view that FTSE will fall, but not sure to which level.
May I ask which are quantitative analysis, volatility and macros you mentioned to predict the fall?

 

[oiltrader81]

well I use different stochastic volatility models in addition to time series analysis models applied to prices.
I was referring to specific figures but I think that US unemployment rate and the mortgage index are extremely useful. I will look at the long side of the market when I will see those numbers pointing towards a serious recovery. The FTSE100 and the S&P500 rallied because of the Fed announcements but the numbers are there and they don't look good to me.

I am not a pessimist but I don't believe that a couple of SPEECHES can get the global economy moving

 

[jackypw]

well I use different stochastic volatility models in addition to time series analysis models applied to prices.
I was referring to specific figures but I think that US unemployment rate and the mortgage index are extremely useful. I will look at the long side of the market when I will see those numbers pointing towards a serious recovery. The FTSE100 and the S&P500 rallied because of the Fed announcements but the numbers are there and they don't look good to me.

I am not a pessimist but I don't believe that a couple of SPEECHES can get the global economy moving

I agree. The problems are everywhere, just depends on what the mkt is trading on. the mkt was on the hope of Europe and Fed QE; now it's time to come back on bad news. just the way big players making money, i guess
added more short position at 5735. Not really optimal, could be 5777 if more patient.
How can your model derive the exact level FTSE will fall to? any reading recommended?

 

[oiltrader81]

well apparently the index fell even more fastly than what i forecasted....today's session is quite meaningless, in my opinion, because US data pushed prices a little bit higher but not even 1 market managed to break important resistance levels.
by the way my models gave me 5400.
ergo: we are still in a down trend