MichaelJohnFX
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11580 was the breakout point downwards this morning. 2 Moves up there, then down. Tight range between 11520 and 580. We had it marked. See from this morning
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MichaelJohnFX
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11520 & 580 all u need to know for this afternoon - either of them break, we move to that side of the breakout. Looks like we have a buy - signal hasn't been confirmed yet.
Dentalfloss
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account statement
MichaelJohnFX
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MichaelJohnFX
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PP @ 11591 - likey to be key R along with 11600/20
Considering it's Friday I'd say upside is limited.
Let's not forget was happened last Friday...It just kept going.
MichaelJohnFX
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Trend support is @ 11530-35 area.
Dentalfloss
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In days of yore, this largely "surprise free" labour report would have been a genuine "nothing to see here" report that allowed the trading fraternity to square their books for the weekend, and head for the hills. Unfortunately it says labour demand remains solid, if unspectacular, but does not provide that "high bar" to rate 'lift-off' in September which Lockhart referenced, in fact it reinforces expectations for a move.
In the detail:
- Payrolls at +215K with a modest net upward revision of +14K to May/June, and Private Payrolls at +210K with a net +5K upward revision were bang in line with forecasts. In the detail, one might give a muted cheer for the better than expected Manufacturing Payrolls at +15K, but could equally highlight a modest loss of momentum in the key "better paid" category of "Professional/business" at +40K vs. prior month gains of +69 and +68K. A fall in demand for Temporary staff of 9K can be interpreted as a better "temp to perm" rate, or perhaps just seasonal.
- Household survey - After the sharp ups and downs in all categories in May & June, a much steadier set of modestly positive readings, Employment +101K, Unemployment -33K and Workforce +69K, hence an unchanged Unemployment Rate at 5.3%. While mixing and matching the establishment and the household surveys is poor form in analytical tems, the fall in the Underemployment Rate to 10.4% from 10.5% would tend to support the suggestion above of some "temp to perm" transitioning.
- Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - A 0.2% m/m rise was in line with the average, and per se confirms a year to date annualized rate of 2.4% y/y, notwithstanding the actual y/y rate falling to 2.1% from 2.3%. Average Weekly Hours finally managed to regain their cyclical high at 34.6, with a 0.5% m/m rise for All Private Workers, while a 0.3% m/m rise in Manufacturing hours implies a solid gain in Manufacturing Output (though the energy sector is likely to drag on headline Industrial Production).
Market reaction: unsurprisingly the USD has made gains, and the UST curve is flattening (2y +3 bps, 10y unch and 30y -1 bp), the Fed Funds futures strip is off 1-3 bps in 2015 dates and 3-4 bps in 2016 dates). But most attention as the IFR article below (pre-NFP release) highlights, GC (general collateral) Repo Markets are in an ugly squeeze,
with the 2yr GC rate quoted at -55/-60 bps at the open, i.e. signalling a shortage of front end Treasury paper to borrow for those shorting the market, and making the 2yr 'very special'. This part of the US money markets' "plumbing" remains the biggest test for Fed rate lift-off and the FOMC in the medium-term, and the idea that the Fed could swiftly reduce its reverse repo activity with a balance sheet of $4.3 Trln looks to be located somewhere in "cloud cuckoo" land. The proof of that particular pudding will most definitely be in the eating.
from Marc Ostwald
In the detail:
- Payrolls at +215K with a modest net upward revision of +14K to May/June, and Private Payrolls at +210K with a net +5K upward revision were bang in line with forecasts. In the detail, one might give a muted cheer for the better than expected Manufacturing Payrolls at +15K, but could equally highlight a modest loss of momentum in the key "better paid" category of "Professional/business" at +40K vs. prior month gains of +69 and +68K. A fall in demand for Temporary staff of 9K can be interpreted as a better "temp to perm" rate, or perhaps just seasonal.
- Household survey - After the sharp ups and downs in all categories in May & June, a much steadier set of modestly positive readings, Employment +101K, Unemployment -33K and Workforce +69K, hence an unchanged Unemployment Rate at 5.3%. While mixing and matching the establishment and the household surveys is poor form in analytical tems, the fall in the Underemployment Rate to 10.4% from 10.5% would tend to support the suggestion above of some "temp to perm" transitioning.
- Average Hourly Earnings / Weekly Hours - A 0.2% m/m rise was in line with the average, and per se confirms a year to date annualized rate of 2.4% y/y, notwithstanding the actual y/y rate falling to 2.1% from 2.3%. Average Weekly Hours finally managed to regain their cyclical high at 34.6, with a 0.5% m/m rise for All Private Workers, while a 0.3% m/m rise in Manufacturing hours implies a solid gain in Manufacturing Output (though the energy sector is likely to drag on headline Industrial Production).
Market reaction: unsurprisingly the USD has made gains, and the UST curve is flattening (2y +3 bps, 10y unch and 30y -1 bp), the Fed Funds futures strip is off 1-3 bps in 2015 dates and 3-4 bps in 2016 dates). But most attention as the IFR article below (pre-NFP release) highlights, GC (general collateral) Repo Markets are in an ugly squeeze,
with the 2yr GC rate quoted at -55/-60 bps at the open, i.e. signalling a shortage of front end Treasury paper to borrow for those shorting the market, and making the 2yr 'very special'. This part of the US money markets' "plumbing" remains the biggest test for Fed rate lift-off and the FOMC in the medium-term, and the idea that the Fed could swiftly reduce its reverse repo activity with a balance sheet of $4.3 Trln looks to be located somewhere in "cloud cuckoo" land. The proof of that particular pudding will most definitely be in the eating.
from Marc Ostwald
Dentalfloss
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crazy stuff
a decent rally and a decent dump
a decent rally and a decent dump
Atilla
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Analysts can take the debate where ever they want and everybody will be none the wiser.
Carney was expected to be a hawk with all the good news, rising housing index, employment and wages but turned into little dove.
We have deflation and fall in oil is making it worse coupled with strong sterling acting to further deflate.
US exactly the same. Deflation and data dependency stuff will mean no reason to raise rates as strong dollar will hurt the US economy just when it is coming into some head on winds.
Rate decision are usually based on macro view points not micro.
Don't really care what the analysts say but with deflation, debt and mortgages interest rates ain't rising till Feb next year as already been talked about by many silent analysts... :smart:
Addenda: Just for the record, do think they should be raised. Probably last spring would have been a good time imo. Skewing markets and equities which will lead to further disequilibrium in valuations of all sorts of assets. Just my view.
Carney was expected to be a hawk with all the good news, rising housing index, employment and wages but turned into little dove.
We have deflation and fall in oil is making it worse coupled with strong sterling acting to further deflate.
US exactly the same. Deflation and data dependency stuff will mean no reason to raise rates as strong dollar will hurt the US economy just when it is coming into some head on winds.
Rate decision are usually based on macro view points not micro.
Don't really care what the analysts say but with deflation, debt and mortgages interest rates ain't rising till Feb next year as already been talked about by many silent analysts... :smart:
Addenda: Just for the record, do think they should be raised. Probably last spring would have been a good time imo. Skewing markets and equities which will lead to further disequilibrium in valuations of all sorts of assets. Just my view.
MichaelJohnFX
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Scalped and just out.
Atilla
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62 would be even better for me.
In case you guys here don't know we have the SPX weekly forecasting competition and there are quarterly $50 Amazon vouchers as well as $100 for the annual winner.
If you like to join the forecasters here on T2W you are more than welcome.
Thread is here... http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/196648-s-p-500-cash-weekly-competition-2015-prizes.html
Basically, before US market opens on Monday 2:30 pm GMT you need to forecast Friday's close ie 2071 etc. Then one gets points on a league table for getting direction correct along with extra points for being the closest.
It's fun and helps with Sunday / week / prep for the markets.
Dentalfloss
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all ..have a god weekend
goin for a walk along the river
c ya monday
goin for a walk along the river
c ya monday
Atilla
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I think it was expecting some support from US market open.
They may still come in to play late near close but Fed interpretation of results will be on BA minds.
Still like to see SPX at 2062 or even 2042 but I know I'm just being totally greedy beyond saturation now...