Forex Trading System - 2200%

[ilia king]

Firstly I would like to say that I found this system on MoneyTec, the guy who invented it showed, with proof on backtesting data, that it made 2200% in one year. The thread is located here:

http://www.moneytec.com/forums/_showthread/_threadid-7549/showthread.php?threadid=7549&perpage=8&pagenumber=1

I am not a believer of quick money but do not understand his system. I am not trying to advertise it but if it really makes 2200% in a year? Too Good to Be True. I am pretty sure this guy is lying but as I say do not understand his system to judge.

It mentions indicators like OsMA, Force, Parabolic Sar etc. Code for Metatrader is also provided. Please could someone investigate this as I am puzzled?

 

[TheBramble]

IK - come on...

How many times has this one been covered?

If it seems too good to be true.....

And be really honest, if you had a system that delivered 2200% pa - would you spend your time trying to sell it to a largely unbelieving and miserable bunch of negative misfits like us traders - or - would you just trade it for yourself?

 

[ilia king]

No I know I totally agree with you but MoneyTec is a pretty good forum. I am not really trying to trade by it or believe that it is a good system but I am trying to understand it but can't because I am not that good on TA. I might pick a few bits out of it but yhea TooGoodToBeTrue.

He might be a very kind person LOL

But my main question is what are those indicators? I am personally a fan of Chart Patterns and Time, and maybe a EMA - to the most an RSI

 

[ilia king]

I must say that I have tested the system and it is not that good. The results are as follows:

 

[ilia king]

The results for the USD/CHF were quite good 120.16% in one year, with 51 losing trades and 65 winning trades. The largest losing trade £5085.93 and the largest winning trade £4747.96. I very hard system to trade by, emotionaly.

Where is the 2200% promised I only got 120.16%

Attached is the result sheet saved in html

 

[ilia king]

The results for the GBP/USD were horrible, only 84.85% in a year. The number of losing trades, 47 and winning trades, 66. The largest losing trade, £6336 and the larges winning trade, £3600

Worse than the USD/CHF and again very emotional as there are quite a lot of big losing trades in a row. I do not see a £2200 profit but thanks for the kind person on MoneyTec sharing it with us. Maybe it will do better on a different currency rate

Attached the results for the GBP/USD backtesting data

 

[ilia king]

Actually reading through the thread, the system works on EUR/USD, which I have not tested. But will do as on the thread he shows a screen shot in the strategy tester showing a huge profit (2000%)

 

[ilia king]

Looks like I spoke too soon. The 1 year Backtest on the EUR/USD 1 hours charts shows a 566.37% profit! near the end it was 1030% roughly but then it went down.

There are 67 winning trades and 25 losing trades, with a llt of -$25228 and a lwt of +$18000 from $10000.

If I were trading in real life I would get $56,637 from $10,000 but again very hard to trade also could it have been just a very good year for EUR/USD (maybe that is why he picked it)

However the person suggested that there was a glitch in metatrader (some order delay thing)

Attached the results of the backtest

 

[Newtron Bomb]

illi king

Euro = 120% per annum
GBP = 84% per annum
both strats are better than 50/50

most people would dream for returns like this

Kind regards
NB

 

[ilia king]

I backtested A $3000 account with Real Trader (would never open a real account with them).

Test period: 2/10/2003 to 3/18/2004
96 trades
69 winners
27 losses
$43k+ profit

Looks like someon beat me, LOL

 

[ilia king]

By the way that was not my screen shot of the backtesting but the owners

 

[ilia king]

Thanks Newtron Bomb, thought that no-one was ever going to look at this post. I am thinking of trading this life, maybe even automated, but have to do more tests

 

[JonnyT]

I agree with Newtron.

84% per annum is rather good...

JonnyT

 

[TheBramble]

Sorry guys - this is rubbish.

IK - send me a chart of you're choosing, any instrument, any timeframe and covering any period of time - and I'll construct you a really profitable system that will perfectly fit the data under study.

...or my name ain't DW....

NOBODY SELLS WINNING SYSTEMS - THEY TRADE THEM!!!!

 

[eminem]

TheBramble, I don't think its being sold, its in the public domain and the guy is looking for comments on it to help improve its performance - obviously 2,200% pa is not enough At least thats my undersatanding from reading the start of the moneytec thread.

 

[fowkesp]

IK - send me a chart of your choosing, any instrument, any timeframe and covering any period of time - and I'll construct you a really profitable system that will perfectly fit the data under study.

Hang on - constructing over-optimised systems that fail in real-time is my speciality

To get back the the system under discussion, I followed the thread on MoneyTec a few weeks ago and seem to recall that the guy is not selling it. He is disclosing how it works and asking for help to improve it.

Paul

 

[ilia king]

Bramble the EUR/USD 1 hour 2003. I am not trading by his system and am not going to trade by it but was just interested in it. Take a look at the link to the forum I am sure this has been discussed

 

[ilia king]

Bramble what do mean *IK - send me a chart of your choosing, any instrument, any timeframe and covering any period of time - and I'll construct you a really profitable system that will perfectly fit the data under study.*
Is that possible?

 

[darrenf]

IK

I think what bramble is getting at is that if you look at a chart for a given time period, for any given instrument, then it is pretty easy to say buy here, sell there etc etc and if I'd traded at x amount per position, then I'd be x thousand % up at the end of it.
The benefit of hindsight is amazing, unfortunately it doesn't exist in the real world, only in back to the future. Just think if you were Marty Mcfly, what a killing you could make in the markets!! in only a few days!

I've read through the thread. I don't think there's anything fundamentally wrong with this guys system, it seems logical and would probably be profitable, just don't expect 2000%. Like JonnyT says (and Newtron), 85% a year is actually quite good.

I think one of the main problems with the published system is not the actual entry and exit of trades, but the amount risked per trade (5% with up to 10%?). Fine with optimised results which is why you can end up with 2000% but in the real world you could suffer horrendous drawdown. If however, you can risk say 2% per trade and make 100% a year, with low drawdowns thats pretty good in my book.

Thats what I am aiming to do anyhow.

 

[adrianallen99]

I created a system on FOREX for fixed odds betting, seemed to work great, problem is due to the nature of Forex, if you only trade part of the day it doesnt work as well. Also the drawndown was absolutely horrendous and at one point early on my capital was down over 80% and 1 more losing trade would have wiped the account out - so completely untradeable even though it made upto 400% a week