Forex Profit Monster - 4H TF

First chance I've had to check what's going on today -grrr! Some nice moves indeed - shame I'm too late to get in. The 4H chart-checking is also, for me, not always possible :|
 
Yes, I think if I can't sort out a practical schedule to do this then it makes no sense. Ok, I'm only on demo at the end of the day but trying to adopt a pro attitude (which does not include the 'check when I can' syndrome currently exhibited!).
By the way, what would I have done on e.g. GBP/JPY since the confirmation after 23.00 (sell) - I would have indeed set my TP at around the support line (usually 5-10 pips away depending on the situation), so in this case about 148.304. It would have shown a 65pip or so profit and yes, I would have lost out on the dip below the line which is now retracing. This pair and the GBP/USD do this a lot but I'd rather secure a profit at around the S or R and that is now becoming my main focus point.
this system provides very clear entry signals - it's the exits that can be baffling - so will see how it goes... Shame I didin't get in on this trade!
Looking at the UD/USD - this is a toughie. Drawing a fib from previous S to the highest recent high it looks as though the price is resting neatly on the 61.8 and on the H1 it's changed colour. Personally, I'd get out.
But then... I could be wrong (again!) :clap:
 

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It seems as though USD/CAD and USD/JPY, EUR/JPY broke through their S & R's but are progressing back now... hm :sneaky:
 
I'll also add that it's my opinion that the FPM S & R lines are only a mite short of magical. I think they are an extremely important and superb component of this system and the amount of times I've seen a trend go up to a line, touch & reverse is more often than not - occasionally it will fail to reach by a few points, or go over. A vital marker nonetheless. I do draw in a few horizontals to mark zones where price has got stuck or moved through but can use the FPM S & R as a reference. And when drawing fibs, I would draw back a few days, to get, say, a week's history to obtain a context for current price action. :):):):):)
 
coolpixel1 said:
Yes, I use S&R for exiting. Over the last month or so I've been discussing exit strategies with my colleague and he had been studiously exiting with arrows - and losing. I suspect that the author also uses a combination of market knowledge couple with S&R. The problem with this approach is that occasionally you lose out too - with big movers like GBP/USD pips are lost but in the big picture a profit is profit. The other thing we looked at was referring to the H1 chart when a set up looks to be a good one - however, we do not usually enter this way (using H1) but wait for the confirmation on H4. But... exiting it could well be viable to check the H! as it, say, approaches a support or resistance level to see what's going on. If 2-3 candles have indicated an obvious counter-trend that has a couple of times strengthened an exit somewhere near a line. A bit touch & go but maybe in the long term this would work. The only other things I check is volatility, though not as much as I check the Trader Dynamic Index if in doubt, or a candle (e.g. pinocchio) shows obvious rejection in an ongoing direction. There's probably a hundred different things I could check but one thing I've noticed is that the longer I look at a chart the longer it starts to look the way I want it!
And not always with a positive result :cheesy:
Click to expand...

support/resistance levels will certainly help to reduce your losses during ranging markets which we've had recently. A very valid strategy - glad its working for you.

Jim utilises Fast Trend cross overs and exit arrows for the majority of his exits to get the results on his blog. If I can get similar results to his published blog, I'd be very happy, so I'm going to stick to these exit methods for the time being.
 
coolpixel1 said:
First chance I've had to check what's going on today -grrr! Some nice moves indeed - shame I'm too late to get in. The 4H chart-checking is also, for me, not always possible :|
Click to expand...

I used to use a H1 system...keeping up with the updates was very tough :eek:

This H4 system works alot better for my family & sleep requirements!
 
Ah, I was wondering what Jim based his results on... it's usually an amalgam of this, that & whatever else - in fact, I thought his exit plan was a bespoke thing. Interesting :smart:
 
Anyone done a back test to see the differences in profit, drawdown closing on arrow/fast trend versus spt/res? I would think the dd would be less with spt/res exits but maybe miss some runners and be less profitable long term? If not capitalized maybe the dd is a bigger problem than long term profits.
 
Yes Dave, the profits would probably be less - I haven't checked but it stands to reason. It's always preferable to enter with the trend - this is what I look for as part of my entry criteria. As has happened this week however (in a rather unpredictable market) a ranging pair here & there suddenly broke through so there was no easy reference prior to entry - yet... FPM provided a signal. Ingot's suggestion is based on common sense and because FPM is a trend-based system. I have thus incorporated this as a criterion. But I do also check to see what may be happening on lower timeframes (also as per previous discussion) to avoid an unnecessary drawdown. Every approach has its pros & cons ;)
 
Closed usdchf long due to pinbar at resistance. Closed usdcad long due to res 50 pips away and weekend coming up. Clsd audusd short due to pinbar at daily spt. After watching profits evaporate waiting for arrow or fpm change I am switching closing philosophy
 
Closed sell GBP/USD at 1.65238, the pinbar on the AUD/USD prompted a close on that pair (again price action), USD/CAD is a bit more awkward - not sure if I would leave this one though probably not because after drawing a fib between the S & R then another between the 61.8 and 100, the price seems to be sticking and that before with the weeken? No thanks! Agreed on the pinbar on the USD/CHF too indicating rejection and I'd do to be on the safe side. Friday! ;)
 
You guys who closed out trades on Friday did well.

Looks like its going to be a losing month if you're strictly trading by the FPM rules...like me! We still have a few more trading days left in November, but I don't see us recouping all these losses.

Ah well...every system has to have its draw down periods. We just need to stick to the rules.
 
forexsniper said:
You guys who closed out trades on Friday did well.

Looks like its going to be a losing month if you're strictly trading by the FPM rules...like me! We still have a few more trading days left in November, but I don't see us recouping all these losses.

Ah well...every system has to have its draw down periods. We just need to stick to the rules.
Click to expand...

you and me both... but i'm not concerned... i allocated few funds to it, and will be following the strategy for at least 6-12 months. friday's equity looked good, but after today, we're back at 0 again. bad month indeed
 
So far I haven't even STARTED to look at what this week is setting out to bring - but you may well be right fs...
Overall the system is deemed to make money - a losing month or two or three in a year has to be considered normal :)
 
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