GBPUSD 4H

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
GBPUSD 4H- broke the 1.3633 pivot in the morning and got stuck at the 1.3615 and then the USD turned across the board.. USD EM lower EURUSD and AUD higher etc... taken out 1.3700 again and pushing on.. felt like a bit of EURGBP selling in the 16.00 fix that added to the topside in CBL.... i have sold some CBL at 1.3742 with a very tight stop at 1.3760 just playing the 1.3756 speed line and adds to my EURUSD and AUDUSD shorts as i feel we are again at the upper end of the range without really any real news out there, which means we shouldn't really break out... Range for now... 1.3700 vs 1.3755 but would hope to get back on a 1.36 handle soon
THESE ARE MY PERSONAL VIEWS AND IS NOT INVESTMENT RESEARCH

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MacroBeat

Member
64 11
GBPUSD 4H- broke the 1.3633 pivot in the morning and got stuck at the 1.3615 and then the USD turned across the board.. USD EM lower EURUSD and AUD higher etc... taken out 1.3700 again and pushing on.. felt like a bit of EURGBP selling in the 16.00 fix that added to the topside in CBL.... i have sold some CBL at 1.3742 with a very tight stop at 1.3760 just playing the 1.3756 speed line and adds to my EURUSD and AUDUSD shorts as i feel we are again at the upper end of the range without really any real news out there, which means we shouldn't really break out... Range for now... 1.3700 vs 1.3755 but would hope to get back on a 1.36 handle soon
THESE ARE MY PERSONAL VIEWS AND IS NOT INVESTMENT RESEARCH

View attachment 295173
in GBP.. the current speed line held again yesterday... did sell a few against that 1.3755 60 line but didnt keep it long enough but my focus has been on EURUSD and AUDUSD as not always a big fan of trading CBL.... BUT we had now 5 attempts at or above 1.3700 and have failed every single one of them... that means the risk is increasing that CBL could do something stupid on the downside... as the old saying goes.. WHAT DOES NOT GO UP MAY HAVE TO GO DOWN

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guest41766

0 0
Nice call on the USD. Equities fell alongside as I expected.

Today I trading for a bounce back in AUDUSD which is risky due to the broader USD uptrend.
 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
T
Nice call on the USD. Equities fell alongside as I expected.

Today I trading for a bounce back in AUDUSD which is risky due to the broader USD uptrend.
Thanks a lot.. yes hence i have an insignificant tiny long AUDUSD at 0.7595 to stop myself from FOMO and selling low ones... 2 levels to watch for the bounce 0.7640 and 0.7675 good luck
 
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guest41766

0 0
I know this post is about Cable. Did see the AUDUSD 4H after I had replied here and agree with the analysis of pray for a bounce. Maybe consolidate the reports into one post. On EURUSD and ECB talking about rate cuts:

MNI - Market News @MNINews
19h To put today's EUR move into context - over 10,000 futures traded in the 60 seconds following the ECB header. That's around €1.3bln cash equivalent (!) and is largest volume spike in years. A larger response today than after the Fed's emergency 50bps rate cut on Mar-3 2020.
 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
I know this post is about Cable. Did see the AUDUSD 4H after I had replied here and agree with the analysis of pray for a bounce. Maybe consolidate the reports into one post. On EURUSD and ECB talking about rate cuts:

MNI - Market News @MNINews
19h To put today's EUR move into context - over 10,000 futures traded in the 60 seconds following the ECB header. That's around €1.3bln cash equivalent (!) and is largest volume spike in years. A larger response today than after the Fed's emergency 50bps rate cut on Mar-3 2020.
yes, that ECB Knot stuff is for sure the most important ECB headline for a long time.. in terms of EUR, just a shame that the ECB story came same day as the risk off.... the risk off has created too much demand in EURAUD EURCAD EURNZD and EURGBP for EURUSD to really tank.. but all will happen eventuallly haha
 
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guest41766

0 0
Insight is key there the crosses did do well. Caught 0.14% of EURAUD but not the whole move as have put rules in place to exit trades at 4pm can be a blessing sometimes. Do you hold overnights or have you defined exit times?

A EUR hawk turning dovish is going to reverberate thru the EUR pairs sooner or later. Is EUR a safe haven ccy in your view, is that why the crosses rallied?
 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
Insight is key there the crosses did do well. Caught 0.14% of EURAUD but not the whole move as have put rules in place to exit trades at 4pm can be a blessing sometimes. Do you hold overnights or have you defined exit times?

A EUR hawk turning dovish is going to reverberate thru the EUR pairs sooner or later. Is EUR a safe haven ccy in your view, is that why the crosses rallied?
No... it is not.... you remember the old game.. in risk off EURAUD and EURCAD and EURNZD always go up... it is not about buying EUR this is more about selling AUD CAD and NZD... in risk off.. AUDUSD just goes down faster than EUR... hence why we always buy EUR vs commodity in risk off... it is a USD neutral way to play the risk off... i tend to play EURAUD a lot when i have no clear USD view.. but like the last 48h i felt strongly about the USD so sold AUDUSD instead which moved more than EURAUD but in days where i want to sell AUD on risk but fancy to be USD neutral.. i go long EURAUD.... it is just a function of the crosses.... EURUSD divided by AUDUSD = EURAUD... hence if AUDUSD goes down faster than EURUSD.. EURAUD has only one way to go... and in a risk off scenario we know Commodity ccys sell of fast... and EURUSD has no real DNA for risk on or off
 
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guest41766

0 0
Yeah sure the trend has been relentless for commodities and equities. Cross dynamic understood.

EUR had been touted as safe haven after the corna crisis. But obviously not yet.
 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
Yeah sure the trend has been relentless for commodities and equities. Cross dynamic understood.

EUR had been touted as safe haven after the corna crisis. But obviously not yet.
Well.. you know better... there is really only one safe haven when stuff really blows up.. and that is the USD as the World reserve ccy... the weakness post covid of course is only due the the cleverl way the FED has reacted very bold and if you have seen one of my pieces last year... it ws needed.. the world has a global USD shortage especially in EM so if the USD would have rallied in March 2020 and rest of the year the world would have blown up... but that's gone now.. EUR will NEVER reach safe haven status... as it is not built as that.. of course its a large currency for global investment as its the second largest ccy behind the USD... but to reach Reserve CCY status you have to be...1) big Military power (which the EU isnt really with 27 different opinions) 2) big economy (which the EU isnt with 27 different bond markets)... and last but not least.. a very simple thing... the EU changes bank notes every 10 years and they lose their legal tender over time (worry of tax evasion).. while if you have a 10 USD bill from whenever.. you can go to any bank and its still worth 10 USD.... HUGE difference.. and hence if you read about World Reserve ccys of teh past almost 4000 years.. you will see the similarity.. so the EU and the EUR will never qualify in its current form (but yes agree due to the size of the EU market... EUR is of course part of every portoflio)
 
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guest41766

0 0
I did not know that about the notes king USD. Well maybe CNY has better chance then EUR...

 

MacroBeat

Member
64 11
I did not know that about the notes king USD. Well maybe CNY has better chance then EUR...

Well that wont happen either... China has never allowed the CNY to be free convertible and i dont think the PBOC will ever hand over power of their ccy to the market.. not in the next 10-20 years anyway.. so forget China
 
 
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