Forex knowledge and live trading journal

[aliasentric]

Reading through all the comments, I appreciate the feedback, and I'll do my best not to fail, and give you all entertainment :cheesy:

My trading is very high risk, compared to some of you no doubt. I have no problem risking between 10-20 percent on a single trade.

I determine my risk by dividing my capital by 6. Whatever that value is, determines my risk per trade. For example, if I had $4000, then my risk per trade is 600 (I rounded). Further, I am confident that I will never lose 6 trades in a row, so I know I can withstand a few losses and still be able to recover.

Over the last 6 weeks, I averaged 20% per week having traded over 150 times (20-30 trades per week).

I would have averaged 75% per week, if I wouldn't have made a few very BIG and DUMB mistakes. My mistakes were partly flaws in my strategy, and partly not sticking to my strategy. So, I adjusted my strategy where needed, and now am determined to stick to my strategy. So, that's why I look to improve to way better than 20% per week, since I am correcting my mistakes, and learning from them…

It's not like I lose a trade, and wonder "what just happened?". You can improve and reach your goals if you identify your mistakes learn from them, and correct them.

Once I grow my capital, I will probably only do 1 or 2 trades a week eventually. But for now I trade as much as possible, but try not to jump in when my set ups are not there...

 

[NVP]

Hi N

LOL - no don't know the guy at all - but he makes me look meek and mild and totally without confidence ;-)

At least I was able to back mine up with the years and years etc ( although I see now nothing compared to your background) - and even at year four - i was having serious thoughts I might not make it - or if I did it might only be for 30 -60% gains a year on 100k account - and that would just not be enough to keep spending the hours of commitment etc ( it would be great on a 5 or 10 million capital though lol)

This will be good and i am sure within the first 30 trades we will know if he might make it. For me one hr charts with MA's and normal stuff - only might work for traders who have been reading PA for multi years - ie 5-7 yrs plus

He's not mentioned money management and what is "edge" or edges" might be yet - so we will all after wait ;-)

Should be interesting - but like us all - I wish him well

Regards

F

I wish him well to.....

people like yourself and (hopefully??) this guy are the lifeblood to take T2W forward ......we have plenty of talkers but we need more WALKERS :smart:

N

 

[Forexmospherian]

Reading through all the comments, I appreciate the feedback, and I'll do my best not to fail, and give you all entertainment :cheesy:

My trading is very high risk, compared to some of you no doubt. I have no problem risking between 10-20 percent on a single trade.

I determine my risk by dividing my capital by 6. Whatever that value is, determines my risk per trade. For example, if I had $4000, then my risk per trade is 600 (I rounded). Further, I am confident that I will never lose 6 trades in a row, so I know I can withstand a few losses and still be able to recover.

Over the last 6 weeks, I averaged 20% per week having traded over 150 times (20-30 trades per week).

I would have averaged 75% per week, if I wouldn't have made a few very BIG and DUMB mistakes. My mistakes were partly flaws in my strategy, and partly not sticking to my strategy. So, I adjusted my strategy where needed, and now am determined to stick to my strategy. So, that's why I look to improve to way better than 20% per week, since I am correcting my mistakes, and learning from them…

It's not like I lose a trade, and wonder "what just happened?". You can improve and reach your goals if you identify your mistakes learn from them, and correct them.

Once I grow my capital, I will probably only do 1 or 2 trades a week eventually. But for now I trade as much as possible, but try not to jump in when my set ups are not there...

That's the bit I would be worried about highlighted in bold.

The 10-20% stake sizes - unfortunately that will also be a recipe for disaster - so please discount down when you are more than 2 or 3 losses in a row)

Anything over even 6 or 8% stake size can be suicidal - and although you might think this guy is talking rubbish - I have been there and got the "t shirt".

I once thought I could walk on water - only to get my feet and legs very wet

It will happen - I just hope not in your next 200 trades.

I really do wish you well - i am not simply saying you will not be able to keep it up - but I certainly would not bet on it

Good Luck - you will need loads of it

Regards

F

 

[Mr Fox]

I spent a lot of time though learning. And I did not work another job at the same time, so I could learn. All in all, I've spent between 4000-6000 hours studying.

Hi Aliasentric

Your comment 4000 - 6000 hrs studying - ? what in a year ?

If you spent 10 hrs a day deep in study - everyday that's a maximum of 3500 hrs in a year ;-)

More than likely - if you did even 6 hrs a day 5 days a week for a year - that's only 1500 or so hrs a year - so 3 yrs like that and you will be up to your 4000 - 6000 hrs.

Then the next point - the study - its no good just reading and back testing - you need 1000's of hrs watching live movements on live charts - ideally on the small frames. You will need over 500 real live trades to see if you strategy works - not 20 -50 trades - they do not mean much ;-)

You will also find out that you may think you might have discovered the "holy grail" especially if you get say 15 or 20+ winning trades in a row ;-)

Then one day or week - you will have maybe 4 or 5 - or if really a bad session 7 bad trades in a row - and you will do your head in - and realise - that there is no holy grail - and that far cleverer, wiser and knowledgeable traders fail as well .

You are up against super computers etc and the best brains in the world - after your money . Never think it's easy or that you can make it without doing the time - ie years and years of trading etc - going through hell.

Then if you have survived - both financially and mentally - you could be there - and if you are very lucky - it might only take 3 - 4 yrs instead of 6 -10 yrs +

Meanwhile look forward to your trading thread and then you will be able to prove us all wrong

Good Luck and stay positive

Regards

F

Your comment 4000 - 6000 hrs studying - ? what in a year ?

If you spent 10 hrs a day deep in study - everyday that's a maximum of 3500 hrs in a year ;-)


How the hunted becomes a hunter.

:whistling

Best
John.

 

[Forexmospherian]

Hi John

You have concerned me now ;-)

You are placing me in the "Wolfpack Team" ie thinking any one new to T2W and posting - must be dodgy and up to something bad and will be trying to rip all the newbies off ?.

I hope not.

To be a "wolfpack" member you need to be rude, aggressive , demanding, coming over with a whiff of superiority - ie I am way better than you and I will totally destroy and belittle you. - etc attitude - yes you know the type ;-)

I sincerely hope I don't come over rude and aggressive - in fact I always like to think I am civil and friendly but maybe too direct at times.

If you notice in the comments - I said - Good luck and stay positive and that I look forward to his thread etc etc - surely - all upbeat and non offending as not a whiff of sarcasm - which of course is another very poor attribute you have to have in in your "locker" to be in the WT lot.

John - you will find me fairly open to a point and yes outspoken if I need to be - but there is NO way I want to discourage Aliasentric or anyone else from posting and to be honest - I hope I can give him some worthwhile tips etc on this next part of his journey.

Please - keep me in "line" if you think I could end up applying to the WT lot - and if I think they are going to give him too much stick etc - I would hope I would be able to defend him - with the help of all T2W members who want to see fairness etc etc

Regards

F

 

[aliasentric]

Okay. Let me set some expectations on this thread. My reason for doing this, was that I wanted to help people learn how to trade. But then I realized it would also help me hold myself accountable for my mistakes, and improve my own trading more quickly.

If I see posting on here is counterproductive to my goals, I will discontinue responding to this thread.

As far as how many hours I've spent, who cares? I threw out some estimated number of hours, but obviously I didn't keep track, I just know for the past year, I've been studying day and night. I would wake up at 5:00 am, and not stop until 11:00 pm on some days (obviously with a few breaks). From 5 am till 11:00 pm is 18 hours. I didn't spend 18 hours every singles day, but some days I spent longer. I probably averaged 16 hours per day, and I didn't take any days off AT ALL. So, 16 x 365 = 5840.

My time was spent ACTUALLY TRADING. I only spent 2 weeks on a demo account, the started live trading. If the market was closed, I studied charts until it opened back up.

But again, who cares how much time I spent? Everyone seems so obsessed with thinking they know how much time it should take to learn to trade. Would it make a difference if I said I've been trading for 20 years? I do not let other people tell me what is possible and not possible.

Before I even started this, I had a goal in terms of how long it would take me to learn. If I thought it would take several years, I would not even have started it. For the same reason I have not pursued advanced degrees in secular education. I'm very results oriented. Quickest way to results, is the way I go every time.

As far as my risking 10-20 percent. As I say, as I grow my capital, it won't be necessary to risk that much. And also, as I said, I typically don't have losing streaks. My strategy is to chose my trades wisely. But also, do not always risk that much.

Also, here's a newsflash for anyone who thinks I'm claiming to teach everything about trading. I cannot teach you everything about trading. No one taught me everything about it. You have to learn. Same thing as going to school for something. You think you can just sit there and someone is going to teach you everything, hold your hand and drag you to the finish line? No.

You have to put forth the effort to learn. I will tell you things that will help you on your path to learn. I will not teach you everything about trading. Besides, everything you need to know about trading is for free on the internet. I never paid anyone to tell me how to trade. I did buy a couple books, but after reading a couple pages, realized they were worthless, and discarded them.

Price action trading is like learning to read and understand a language. You have to spend the time to understand what it is telling you. How long does it take to learn a language? I know someone who became pretty fluent after only about 8 months. Most people it takes years. But if you spend the time, and you have the drive, you can learn much quicker…

Similar to programming languages, I have learned several though out my career. So, I know what it takes. Anyone can do it if they have the drive and focus...

 

[NVP]

hey there A

hang on and meet us half way here .....you need to understand the rules ..........

no one asked you to post and come online .......most people here will cerainly respect people who arrive and seek to improve their knowledge and skill by sharing their trading techniques and progress

you will find plenty of people posting journals .......in fact there I believe is an area for that (?)

so welcome on board and we wish you well.........you certainly have enough people watching now to critique or ensure you stick to the rules and your gameplan ........just tell the truth about your trades and dont bullsh*t anyone if it all goes wrong .....

tomorrow is time to stop talking and do some walking dude......we are here watching .....

Cheers and good luck
N

 

[aliasentric]

No one asked me to come on line?

No one asked you to respond to my thread either.

Plus, if you look at my videos, I'm already walking. I've posted all of my trades that are currently open, even pointing out some that I feel were not the best decisions, and why.

Further, this isn't just a journal. I'm not just posting trades here. I'm commenting on my analysis of the market.

 

[NVP]

hey there...........white flag........

good luck
N

 

[aliasentric]

Okay, still trying to decide best way to organize the videos on this post. Unable to edit my original post. I'll just post a notification when there is another video. I look to at least post once a week, but if it will help or there are updates, I'll try and post more often…

Here's my latest analysis on my trades:

20131217TradeUpdate

GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURJPY, USDJPY

https://plus.google.com/112301150954304728442/posts/N4r7igJSA1h

 

[aliasentric]

Another update - Need to protect profits on 2 of my trades…

20131217TradeUpdate 2

GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURJPY, USDJPY

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmn5UWtVQolz1L4OxAMQzzw?feature=watch

 

[Forexmospherian]

Good Luck with EU and GA on one hr and four charts - If they work for you and you are getting the results like you first mentioned - I must have wasted 2 years during the first part of my trading journey.

With regards to comparing learning to trade with to learn a foreign language in say 6 months - forex trading for ongoing consistent profits as got to be at least 5 time more difficult ;-)

Regards

F

 

[aliasentric]

Another update on my trade management…

GBPAUD, EURAUD, EURNZD, EURJPY, USDJPY

http://youtu.be/dA5iDgftm5k

 

[aliasentric]

Good Luck with EU and GA on one hr and four charts - If they work for you and you are getting the results like you first mentioned - I must have wasted 2 years during the first part of my trading journey.

With regards to comparing learning to trade with to learn a foreign language in say 6 months - forex trading for ongoing consistent profits as got to be at least 5 time more difficult ;-)

Regards

F

Thanks for the reply. I'm trying to learn a new language, and am still struggling with it for a few years now. But with trading I feel like after less than 1 year, I knew enough to be "fluent". I still make mistakes, and I am still learning. And I don't ever want to stop improving. I believe 100% success rate is possible, that is to never lose a trade. Imagine that

Notice I didn't say never to make a mistake, but to never lose a trade, in that every trade is at least a little bit profitable. Probably, I will never get there, but I will not stop improving with that goal in mind. Hey, if I can win 9 out 10 trades, I'd settle for that as a winning statistic :clap:

 

[aliasentric]

No time to record video on this, just moved stop loss to protect profit on the GBPAUD. Attached image. Used the 15min chart, and placed above the 21 ema.

Not sure how it's going to react to resistance. It's now a no-risk trade

So far, so good...

 

[aliasentric]

Stopped out with a little bit of profit on the GBPAUD, didn't want to risk further fall from resistance. Will wait to see if it falls to the bottom of trend line for re-entry…

 

[aliasentric]

Jumped back in on GBPAUD at 1.82955.

It looks to me like it is trying too hard to break out of resistance, and will not retrace until after it breaks well above 1.83399.

It looks to me like it will maintain upward bias as long as it doesn't close below 1.82362

We'll see how it goes. So far so good...

 

[Forexmospherian]

Thanks for the reply. I'm trying to learn a new language, and am still struggling with it for a few years now. But with trading I feel like after less than 1 year, I knew enough to be "fluent". I still make mistakes, and I am still learning. And I don't ever want to stop improving. I believe 100% success rate is possible, that is to never lose a trade. Imagine that

Notice I didn't say never to make a mistake, but to never lose a trade, in that every trade is at least a little bit profitable. Probably, I will never get there, but I will not stop improving with that goal in mind. Hey, if I can win 9 out 10 trades, I'd settle for that as a winning statistic :clap:

Consistency over 7 out of 10 winners is possible over time with years of practice and experience etc - even if the commercial world think 60% win ratio is the tops or brilliant.

The trouble is every now and again - whether quarterly or just once or twice a year - you will have a run of 4 -7 bad trades on a run - always factor that one in

I know of a fellow experienced trader of decades - who as the 65% win ratio over thousands of trades - have 10 bad trades in a bad "black swan" run - so I count myself - very lucky only having had 7 as my worst result ;-)

Over time - you will realise why - and the main weakness will be your own eyes and brain - as supercomputers can and will catch it out - just when you thought it cannot happen

Have a great day - just been scalp buying EU - but watch that LH at 3800 - as can it be breached or not ??

Regards

F

 

[aliasentric]

Consistency over 7 out of 10 winners is possible over time with years of practice and experience etc - even if the commercial world think 60% win ratio is the tops or brilliant.

The trouble is every now and again - whether quarterly or just once or twice a year - you will have a run of 4 -7 bad trades on a run - always factor that one in

I know of a fellow experienced trader of decades - who as the 65% win ratio over thousands of trades - have 10 bad trades in a bad "black swan" run - so I count myself - very lucky only having had 7 as my worst result ;-)

Over time - you will realise why - and the main weakness will be your own eyes and brain - as supercomputers can and will catch it out - just when you thought it cannot happen

Have a great day - just been scalp buying EU - but watch that LH at 3800 - as can it be breached or not ??

Regards

F

Thanks for the reply. Of course, as you might already know from my previous posts in this thread, that I don't believe anything anyone tells me, when they say what can and cannot be done. Whether it be how long it takes to trade, or how successful one can be.

But there's also style of trading, which is directly related to win/loss ratio. I understand you are a scalper? I don't intentionally "scalp" unless I quickly determine I made a mistake in my trade and jump out shortly thereafter. Is that scalping? Just kidding. Anyway, I've never let anyone define what my ceiling of success is. I'm not going to start now

But thanks again for the reply. Plenty of people responding to my thread, and telling me what I can and cannot do. But it's not a new thing, as plenty of people have been doing that ever since I started trading. I'm glad I didn't listen to them…

 

[aliasentric]

Forexmospherian - I should also add that I admit my mistakes, and I know I will make more of them. I'm still learning and will never stop learning. I will never be comfortable. It's my lack of comfort, I think, that is an advantage. I'm not saying I'll never have a losing streak, but I tend not to have them. Because, when I do make a mistake, I identify it and learn from it and try not to make it again. So, for me to make 7 bad trades in a row, would mean I really was not paying attention to what I was doing, and I hope I never fall asleep like that…

I also have checks and balances on what the root causes are of my trading mistakes. If I see myself headed in that direction, I pull myself back before I start down the path of a losing streak. And I think you also alluded to it as well - The cause of losing streaks is not really related directly to strategy, but is connected to emotion. What does one do after one loses 1 trade? After 2 trades? 3? 4? etc.?

How one handles emotions after a loss will determine how many more losses will directly follow that. Just my 2 cents...