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Market updates on July 25

25.07.2019

Key events ahead:

Interest rate decision by the Central bank of Turkey – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

ECB monetary policy statement – 14:45 MT (11:45 GMT) time

ECB press conference – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

During the Asian trading session, the Reserve bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe commented that the bank would ease its policy further if demand disappoints. The Australian dollar reacted negatively to his comments and fell lower. On H4, AUD/USD tested the lower border of the long-term ascending trading channel below the 0.6967 level. If bears manage to break this border, the next support will lie at 0.6957. After that pay attention to the 0.6946 level. From the upside, the first significant resistance level lies at 0.6989. The next resistance will be placed at 0.6998.

EUR/USD is consolidating near the support at 1.1127 ahead of the ECB rate decision. There’s a 50% chance of a rate cut, so pay attention to the meeting. If the euro weakens more, the pair will break the support at 1.1127 and test the support at 1.1118 on H4. The dovish ECB will increase the possibility for the pair to fall further to the 1.1076 level. On the other hand, if the central bank is less dovish, the first resistance will lie at 1.1155. The next resistance levels will be placed at 1.1166 and 1.1177.

USD/TRY, in its turn, is awaiting the decision by the Turkish central bank. After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired the head of the central bank earlier this month due to his disagreement to make the interest rate lower, now the market anticipates the rate cut decision. The US dollar has become stronger against the Turkish lira as the rate cut worries have been priced in. If the Turkish lira continues to weaken, the pair will break the 5.7048 level and return within the borders of the ascending trading channel. The next resistance will lie at 5.7219. In case of the reversal, the pair will fall below the 5.6887 level. The next support will be placed at 5.6766. (50-period SMA). The break of this level will provoke further fall to the next support at 5.6620.

 

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Market updates on July 26

26.07.2019

Key events ahead:

US advance GDP – 15:30 MT time

Yesterday the speech by the European Central bank president Mario Draghi was not as dovish as it expected. As a result, there was a mixed performance of the EUR. Today, EUR/USD keeps consolidating between 1.1127 and 1.1155 levels. The release of the US advance GDP may bring some moves to the pair. If the GDP growth report is strong, the pair will break the 1.1127 level. The next support will lie at 1.1117. After that, pay attention to the 1.1086 level. From the upside, the levels at 1.1155, 1.1166 and 1.1177 are important.

GBP/USD weakened yesterday after the EU policymakers said to the new Prime Minister of Great Britain Boris Johnson that the current withdrawal Brexit agreement can’t be renegotiated. On H4, the pound slipped towards the support at 1.2427. If bears manage to break this level, the next support will lie at 1.2399. Alternatively, if the GBP is supported by positive news, the pair will retest the 1.2455 level and try to reach the next resistance at 1.2475 (above the 50-period SMA) in case of a breakout.

USD/JPY got stronger on the rising treasury yields. After the big bullish candlestick which was formed yesterday on H4, the pair started to consolidate in the 108.56-108.71 range. Bulls need to be supported by the positive US GDP data to break the 108.71 level and target the next resistance at 108.98. On the other hand, a break below 108.56 level will provoke further slide towards the 108.33 support.

 

SebsCubs

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5 important events this week will bring us!

29.07.2019

A monetary policy statement by the Bank of Japan (Tue, Asian session) – The rate changes are not expected, but the BOJ governor may provide comments on the future changes to the current monetary policy. Comments on further easing will make the JPY weaker.

Chinese manufacturing PMI (Wed, 4:00 MT (1:00 GMT) time) - According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance to 49.6. Higher figures will increase the risk-on sentiment in the market.

FOMC statement (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time) – The market anticipates the rate cut by 25 basis points from 2.5% to 2.25%. Besides, we need to pay attention to the tone of the Fed chair and the hints on the further steps by the regulator. If Federal Reserve cuts the interest rate, the USD will go down. On the other hand, if the rate changes are postponed, the USD will be supported.

Monetary policy summary by the Bank of England (Thu, 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT)) – The bank won’t change the interest rate, but we will pay attention to the tone of the BOE amid the weak British pound, global easing of other central banks and uncertainties surrounding Brexit.

US employment data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time) – As usual, the report will include the level of average hourly earnings, unemployment rate and, of course, non-farm employment change or non-farm payrolls. While average hourly earnings and unemployment rate are expected to remain stable, the level of NFP is forecast to advance by 160 thousand payrolls. Higher figures of NFP and average hourly earnings and lower figures of unemployment rate will push the USD higher.

Hot news

The British pound fell to the lowest levels since 2017 after the British policymakers, such as Dominic Raab and Michael Dove commented about the preparations to the no-deal Brexit. On Monday, British PM Boris Johnson met with the First Minister of Scotland and Scottish Conservatives leader and they did not support the idea to leave the EU without a deal.

The trade talks between the US and China will resume on July 30-31. The key demands of China are the removal of the existing tariffs, a balanced agreement, realistic targets for further trade agreements. At the same time, the US ask for structural reforms to China's economy and the protection of intellectual property rights. As the trade negotiations have stuck after the meeting between Chinese and US presidents in Osaka during G20, we may only wonder whether the upcoming round of negotiations will succeed.

 

SebsCubs

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The British pound is awaiting the BOE meeting

30.07.2019

The monetary policy summary by the Bank of England will be out on August 1, at 14:00 MT time.

We do not anticipate any changes to the interest rate this time, but the Bank of England may throw some hints on the further steps regarding its monetary policy. Despite the risks that the new Prime Minister Boris Johnson will leave the EU without a deal, the bank seems to stick to its plan to raise interest rates gradually for now. Will the policymakers change their tone to more dovish amid the trend of global easing?

• If the BOE is hawkish, the GBP will rise.

• If the BOE is dovish, the GBP will fall.

 

SebsCubs

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The US-China trade war escalates

02.08.2019

Good Friday, traders! Let's start with the updates from the US-China trade war's front.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on the remaining 300 billion dollars of goods and products since September 1. China, in its turn, said about countermeasures needed as a response to this unexpected move. As a result, the risk-weighted assets dropped significantly.

The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar have seen huge moves to the downside. AUD/USD is currently trading at the lowest levels since January's flash crash.

Safe-haven Japanese yen has strengthened. USD/JPY has been targeting support from June 25 at 106.76.

USD/CNH has risen to the highest levels since last November. The pair is currently trading at 6.9718.

Gold retested its recent highs at $1,448.

As for exotic currency pairs, USD/MXN and the USD/ZAR jumped higher, while USD/BRL gapped up above the 50-day SMA since the start of today's trading session.

 

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Market updates on August 1
01.08.2019

Key events ahead:

Monetary policy summary by the BOE, BOE inflation report – 14:00 MT time

ISM manufacturing PMI for the US – 17:00 MT time

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve cut the interest rate by 25 basis points. The market had fully priced in this decision and expected more hints on the further path of the interest rate’s cut. However, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell failed to be as dovish as the market wanted him to be. The statement was mostly the same as the previous one, and the USD rose higher. EUR/USD has tested the support at 1.1033. If this level is broken, the pair will slide lower to the 1.0982 level. If the USD weakens, the pair will have a chance to rise above the 1.1056 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.1137. After that, pay attention to the 1.1155 level.

The British pound has tested fresh lows at the 1.2108 level and is awaiting the bank of England to determine the further direction for the cable. If the current support is broken, the next level will lie at 1.2017. If the central bank supports the pound, GBP/USD may rise to the 1.2177 level. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2248. Technically, the price formed a bullish divergence with MACD on H4, which may signal a rebound soon.

USD/JPY has risen after the Fed decision. After the test of the 109.31 level, the pair fell to the support at 109.08. If the pair continues to weaken, the next support will be placed at 108.71. After that, pay attention to the levels at 108.51-108.45, as there will be high chances of reaching these levels. From the upside, if bulls retest the 109.31 level, the next resistance will lie at 109.61.

The Brazilian central bank unexpectedly cut its interest rate to the record low of 6% since 1986. The rate cut pushed USD/BRL higher above the 50-period SMA on H4 to the resistance at 3.8270. The next resistance will lie at 3.8470. From the downside, pay attention to 3.7604 and 3.7317 level.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 31: the Fed decision

31.07.2019

Key events ahead:

ADP Non-farm employment change for the US – 15:15 MT (12:15 GMT) time

Canadian GDP – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

FOMC statement – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

FOMC press conference – 21:30 MT (18:30 GMT) time

The market is trading cautiously ahead of the Fed monetary policy statement at 21:00 MT time. On H4, EUR/USD is consolidating between the resistance at 1.1158 and the support at 1.1132. If the rate cut happens today, the USD will weaken. In that case, the break of the 1.1158 level will happen and the next resistance level will lie at 1.1174. After that, pay attention to the 1.1198 resistance level. If the Fed chair surprises the market with no changes to the interest rate, the pair will slide below the 1.1132 level to the next support at 1.1116. If this level is broken, the euro will fall towards the 1.1086 level. If we look at MACD we can see that it is placed closed to the 0 level, which signals a possible reversal.

GBP/USD stopped falling and started to wait for the Fed to determine its further direction. If the Fed is dovish, the cable may break the 1.2168 level and target the next resistance at 1.2197. After that, bulls may push the pair higher to the 1.2225 level. In the case of the Alternative scenario, GBP/USD will move below the support at 1.2145. The next support will lie at 1.2118. If the pair manages to overcome this level, the further fall to the 1.2017 level may happen on the fears of a no-deal Brexit.

USD/JPY has been trading sideways, too. After the end of a new round of US-China trade negotiations, Chinese policymakers said that the US needs to show enough sincerity in reaching a deal. The news pulled the USD/JPY pair lower during the Asian trading session. Now all eyes are on the Fed decision. If the rate cut is confirmed, the pair will fall below the 108.51 level. The next support will lie at 108.45. After that, the pair may reach the 108.33 level. From the upside, pay attention to the upper border of the consolidation range at 108.64-108.7. The next key level for bulls lies at 108.8.

The FOMC statement will show whether the uptrend for gold will continue. On H4, the yellow metal has been knocking the resistance at $1,433. If it’s broken, the next resistance level will lie at $1,438. After that, the price for gold may reach $1,448 level. In case of the supported US dollar, the levels at $1,428, $1,424 (50-period SMA) and $1,420 will be in focus.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on August 5


05.08.2019

Key events ahead:

American ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time

The weekend was hurtful for the market sentiment with the updates from the Chinese side. While Hong-Kong press informed that China questioned the chance of trade talks' continuation with the US, Beijing asked State buyers to halt US agricultural imports. It resulted in the risk aversion in the markets.

USD/CNH has risen to the record highs above the 7th level and created resistance at 7.1050. If the Chinese yuan is supported, the first key level will lie at 6.9680. After that, pay attention to the next support levels at 6.9360 and 6.9270.

As risk-off sentiment intensified, gold moved higher to the resistance at $1,473 on H4. In case of reversal, pay attention to the $1,448, $1,436 and $1,421 (100 and 50 period SMA)

USD/JPY jumped to the lowest levels since January's flash crash. The first support for the pair lies at 105.65. After that, pay attention to the 105.3 level. If bulls take over the market the first resistance will lie at 107.45. After the break of this level, reaching the resistance at 107.79 will be possible.

 

SebsCubs

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Important indicators may push the GBP up

06.08.2019

Great Britain will release the level of GDP growth and manufacturing production on August 9, at 11:30 MT time.

The level of GDP growth measures the economic activity of a country. Last time it advanced by 0.5%, which was in line with the forecast. Analysts expect the indicator to remain at the same level this time. As for manufacturing production, which represents the value of output produced by manufacturers, it increased by the lower-than-expected 1.4% (vs. the forecast of +2.2%). According to the forecasts, the indicator will decline by 0.1% during Friday's release.

• If the actual figures are higher than the forecasts, the GBP will strengthen;

• If the actual figures are lower than the forecasts, the GBP will weaken.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on August 7

07.08.2019

Key events ahead:

The speech by the FOMC member Evans – 16:30 MT time

During the RBNZ meeting, the regulator cut its interest rate by 50 basis points (vs. 25 bpt expected). As a result, the New Zealand dollar fell to the lowest levels in 3 years. On H4, the support levels for kiwi lie at 0.6367-0.6377. If these levels are broken, the further fall will be limited by the 0.6296 level. At the moment NZD/USD is trying to rebound towards the resistance at 0.6451. Technically, RSI is about to leave the oversold zone, which may provide a buying opportunity.

Gold has risen even more to its highest levels since 2012 on global fears surrounding trade war between the US and China and comments on the launch of missiles by North Korea. On H4, the price for the yellow metal is trading above the $1,480 level. The next resistance for gold will be placed at $1,515. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support level at $1,446. If it is broken, the next support will lie at $1,412. RSI is looking up, which means that the rise may continue.

AUD/USD fell to the 10-year low, as investors are afraid that the Reserve Bank of Australia will follow the path of its antipodean colleague. On the 4-hour chart, AUD/USD tested the 0.6676 level below the border of the downward trading channel but bounced back within the borders. If the aussie recovers more, the first resistance will lie at 0.6778. After the breakout, pay attention to the 0.68 and 0.6819 levels. On the other hand, strong bears may pull the pair down once again and try to break the 0,6676 level with the following test of the 0.6622 level.

 

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Market updates on August 8

08.08.2019

During the Asian trading session, the People's Bank of China set the reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0039. This is the highest level in a decade, but not as high as analysts expected it to be. As a result, USD/CNH fell towards the support at 7.0650 right after the test of the resistance at 7.0977 level. If bears continue to pull the pair down, the current support may be broken, and the next one will lie at 7.0420. In case of a less risky environment, the pair will retest the 7.0977 level.

USD/JPY has been consolidating in the 106-106.27 range after the bullish surge towards the 106.27 level. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 106.63 and 107.05. On the other hand, if bears take control over the market, the 106 level may be broken and the next support will lie at 105.52. After that, keep an eye on the 105.3 level.

AUD/USD has risen on the softer risk sentiment. After the crossover of the price with the 0.6772 level (23.6% Fibo) on H4, bulls will have a chance to push the pair higher to the 0.68-0.6819 support levels. In case of risk aversion, the support at 0.6752 may be broken and the retest of the 0.6676 level may be possible.

 

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Weekly Cryptonews

09.08.2019

Cryptotraders await when the BTC will choose its direction. On Monday bulls confirmed their strength with the strong rise above the 50-day simple moving average and the 50% Fibo level. After that, the consolidation has begun. Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range between $11,560 (50% Fibo) and $12,030 (61.8% Fibo) levels. If the upper border of the range at $12,030 is broken, the oldest cryptocurrency will rise towards the $12,360 level. The next resistance will lie at $12,770. In case of the alternative scenario, the $11,560 level will be broken and the $10,770 level (50-day SMA) will be in focus.

After the successfully conducted halving in the Litecoin network on Monday, the digital silver tested the 100-day SMA, but could not stick near that level and started to move down. On Friday, it has tested the support at $84.77. In case of a breakout of this level, the price of Litecoin will try to fall to the levels below the 200-day SMA, where it may find the support at $76.78. If the price of the digital currency reverses, the first resistance will lie at $92.19. The next one will be placed at $98.86.

The price of Ethereum has been weakening, too. The digital asset has been trading within a month-long range between the $202.04 and $233 levels. After the test of the upper border of this range on Monday, the digital currency has been moving down. If the lower border of the range at $202.04 is broken, the next support will be placed at $192 (50-day SMA). From the upside, the next key resistance will lie at $250.

The situation has not changed for DASH since the last week. The breakout on Monday appeared to be the fake one and the cryptocurrency returned to the 100.64-106.9 range. From the upside, the next level lies at $113.78. In case of the downward pressure, the key level will be placed at $97.3.


 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on August 12

12.08.2019

Key events:

Speech by RBA Assistant Governor Kent – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT) time

During the Asian trading session, the People’s Bank of China once again set its reference rate for USD/CNY at 7.0211 (lower than expected). The USD/CNH pair inched lower on that announcement, but then immediately rose back to the resistance at 7.1080. At the moment the pair is testing the highs above this resistance level. In case of the stronger yuan, watch the levels at 7.0880 and 7.0650.

After the crucial test of the 1.2015 level, GBP/USD has moved higher towards the resistance at 1.2084. If this level is broken, pay attention to the 50-period SMA, which lies at 1.2145. From the downside, watch for the retest of the 1.2015 level. After that, the further fall will be limited by 1.1993.

USD/JPY has been moving down. On H4, the price is forming the descending triangle and is looking forward to the test of the 105.04 level. The next support will lie at 104.73. From the upside, pay attention to the 105.7 level. If bulls manage to break it, there is a chance of the rise towards the 106.22 level.

 

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Market updates on August 13

13.08.2019

British average earnings index – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT) time

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has continued to consolidate between the resistance levels at 1.1210-1.1223 and strong support at 1.1177. Today's release may bring volatility to the pair. If the USD gets stronger, the 1.1177 level may be broken and the next key level will be placed at the crossover of 50- and 100- period SMA at 1.1162. The next support will lie at 1.1147. Otherwise, if the pair manages to overcome the 1.1210-1.1223 range and sticks above the 200-period SMA, the next resistance will lie at 1.1240.

GBP/USD rose yesterday, but the further upward movement was limited by the upper border of the descending formation at 1.2106. The key levels from the downside lie at 1.2015 and 1.1993. If the GBP is supported, the retest of the 1.2106 level will be possible. The next resistance for the cable lies at 1.2145.

Gold inched higher on global tensions and uncertainties. The yellow metal has jumped above the $1,510 level and is moving up towards the $1,544 level. In case of softer risk sentiment, gold will slide back below the $1,510 level. The next support will lie at $1,495.

Now let’s look at the emerging markets. During the Asian trading session, Singapore’s GDP growth for the second quarter fell by 3.3%. Despite that, the Monetary Authority of Singapore does not plan to change its schedule of meetings until October. As a result, USD/SGD broke to its highest levels since 2017. At the moment, the pair is testing the resistance at 1.3885. The next key level will lie at 1.3910. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the support levels at 1.3859 and 1.3844.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on August 15

15.08.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

Philly Fed manufacturing index for the US – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

The Australian dollar was supported today by the upbeat jobs data for Australia. The indicator increased by 41.1 thousand jobs (vs the forecast of 14.2 thousand). The aussie rose above the 50-period SMA towards the 0.6783 level, but failed to stick near its highs on the revised forecasts of the upcoming RBA’s rate cuts and retested the 50-period SMA. If the aussie weakens, the pair may fall to the 0.6746-0.6736 levels. After the breakout of this range, the pair may retest the 0.6677 level. If the Australian dollar sticks above the 50-period SMA, the chance of the retest of 0.6783 level will increase. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 0.6799.

EUR/USD is awaiting the release of the US indicators. The pair is trading with low volatility on H4. Pay attention to the 1.1150, 1.1157 (100-period SMA) and 1.1166 levels, which may be reached if the releases disappoint the market. From the downside, the key levels will lie at 1.1142, 1.1133 and 1.1116.

USD/JPY spiked towards the 106.74 level, but then immediately moved down to the 50-period SMA on the 4-hour chart. At the moment of writing the pair has been testing the strong support at 105.8 on H4. In case of a risk-off situation, pay attention to the next support level at 105.52. If the USD is supported, the 106.32-106.22 levels will be in focus.

 

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