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[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 24

24.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the RBA governor Philip Lowe – 12:55 MT (8:55 GMT)

CB consumer confidence for the US – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

During the Asian trading session, the trading of AUD/USD was mixed. Bulls managed to push the pair higher towards the 0.6787 level. If the RBA governor shares some positive comments, the AUD may inch higher. If the 0.6787 level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6795-0.6799 levels. After that, bulls need to focus on the 0.6804 level. From the downside, the first support for the pair will lie at 0.6773. If it is broken, the pair will be vulnerable to the fall to 0.6767 level. After that, reaching the support at 0.6759 seems possible.

EUR/USD has been trading with low volatility. We may expect CB consumer confidence to move the pair. According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 134.1 points. If the actual level is higher, the support at 1.09816 will be broken. The next key support for the pair will be placed at 1.0956-1.0964. If the USD is weak, the breakout of the resistance level at 1.0997 will be in focus. After that, bulls will be targeting the 1.1024 level.

GBP/USD has spiked above the 1.2460 level on the news that the Supreme Court decided that the prorogation of the Parliament was unlawful. We will wait for further updates on that matter. The next resistance for the cable on H4 will lie at 1.24. From the downside, the support levels lie at 1.2414, 1.2391 and 1.2364.

 

[SebsCubs]

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[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 26

26.09.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the ECB President Mario Draghi – 16:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 16:45 MT (13:45 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Bullard – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Clarida – 18:45 MT (15:45 GMT) time

Rate decision by the Central bank of Mexico – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time

EUR/USD has been falling. The pair has tested the ground below the 1.0936 level. The next support for bears lies at 1.0925. After reaching it and breaking, the pair will fall until the lower border of the descending channel and the 1.0890 level will be reached. From the upside, the first resistance will be placed at 1.0964. The next level in focus will lie at 1.0994 (upper border of the descending channel). RSI is about to enter the oversold zone.

The cable bounced from the 100-period SMA at 1.2373 on H4 and started to fall. If it continues to slide, the support at 1.2314 will be targeted. Further key levels in bears' attention will be placed at 1.2281 and 1.2233. If the pair reverses, the retest of the 1.2373 level seems likely. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2437. If we look at oscillators, we can see that RSI is moving within the oversold zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide a buying opportunity.

USD/MXN is consolidation on H4 ahead of the interest rate decision by the Central bank of Mexico at 21:00 MT. According to forecasts, the bank will cut its interest rate from 8% to 7.75%. The decision is priced in, that is why we may expect the USD/MXN pair to fall right after the announcement. After the recent gains, the pair has been trading above the 100-period SMA, close to the resistance at 19.5870. Further resistance levels will be situated at 19.6340 and 19.6734. If USD/MXN break the support at 19.5335, bears will pull it lower to the 19.4787 level. RSI is about to enter the overbought zone.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 27

27.09.2019

Key events ahead:

US core durable goods orders – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

US personal spending – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

At the moment of writing, EUR/USD has been trading near the resistance at 1.0921. If bulls manage to break this level or the anticipated releases for the USD disappoint the market, the next resistance level will be situated at 1.0937. After that, the possibility of reaching the 1.0964 level will increase. From the downside, the fall towards the 1.0890 level seems likely if the USD strengthens. The next key support will lie at 1.0854.

GBP/USD slid lower on the comment by the BOE member Saunders. He said that if the deal is not reached, the next move by the Bank of England may be a cut. The pair has tested the support zone at 1.2272-1.2281, where the 200-period SMA is moving. If the pair overcomes these levels, the next support will be placed at 1.2233. If the pair reverses, bulls will need to break the 1.2297 level to confirm their strength. The next resistance will lie at 1.2373. RSI is moving within the oversold zone.

Gold moved lower on the improved market sentiment. The price of the yellow metal has tested the support at $1,496. Further supports in bears' focus will lie at $1,490 and $1,486. In case of risk-off sentiment, the reversal towards the $1,507 level will be possible. The next resistance will be placed at $1,512.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on September 30

Check out more: http://bit.ly/2n7wTjP

30.09.2019

During the Asian trading session, ANZ business confidence for New Zealand fell to the lowest levels since 2008. As a result, NZD/USD tested the lows below the 0.6254 level. If the 0.6254 level is broken, the next support will lie at 0.6235. Bulls will be looking for a short-term recovery towards the 0.6276 level. RSI will be especially helpful in this situation, as its line is moving close to the oversold zone. In case of a breakout of the 0.6276 resistance level, the next key level will be placed at 0.6297, close to the 50-period SMA.

The cable has been trading above the 200-period SMA on H4, as the GBP traders anticipate the Brexit updates. In case of the news about the extension of the Brexit deadline, bulls may break the 1.2329 level and push GBP/USD higher towards the 1.2363 level. If the pair weakens, we may see the slide below the 1.2281 level. The next support will be placed at 1.2233.

Gold has retested the lows of September 13 at $1,485. If it continues to weaken, it may provoke a further fall towards the $1,479.4 level. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance lines at $1,494 and $1,500. RSI has entered the oversold zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide a buying opportunity.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

01.10.2019


Canadian GDP (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to analysts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. If the actual level is higher than the forecasts, the CAD will go up.

US ISM manufacturing PMI (Tue, 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)) – Analysts expect the level of PMI to reach 50.4 points. Higher figures will push the USD up.

Australian retail sales (Fri, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT)) – Analysts anticipate the level of retail sales to advance by 0.5%. Higher-than-expected figures will boost the US dollar.

Canadian trade balance (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – The difference in value between imported and exported goods are expected to remain at the same level of -1.1 billion dollars. If the actual level is higher, the CAD will be supported.

US jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – NFP is forecast to increase by 140 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will likely remain at the same level and the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to decline by 0.3%. If NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, it will make the USD rise.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 2

02.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Brexit press conference by British PM Johnson – 14:00 MT (11:00 GMT) time

US ADP non-farm employment change – 17:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time

Speech by the FOMC member Williams – 17:50 MT (13:50 GMT) time

EUR/USD has touched the resistance at 1.0940 and started to fall down on the risk-off sentiment. Bears have been targeting the support at 1.0908. If this level is broken, the next key level will lie at 1.0884. Bulls will be awaiting the release of ADP non-farm employment change at 17:30 MT time. According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 140 thousand jobs. If the actual level is lower than the forecasts, the USD will weaken. As a result, the pair will rise to the resistance at 1.0940. Next resistance levels will lie at 1.0958-1.0964 (close to the 50-period SMA).

GBP/USD is awaiting the press conference by the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on a new Brexit plan at 14:00 MT time. If it disappoints the market, the cable will slide towards the trend line of September 3. The 1.2210 level will be important for sellers. In case of a breakout, the support level at 1.2193 will be important. Strong bearish pressure may pull the pair even lower to the 1.2170 level. On the other hand, if the market likes the new plan by Mr. Johnson, the pair will stick above the 1.2233 level. The next key levels lie at 1.2252 and 1.2272.

USD/JPY bounced from the 100-period SMA and moved down towards the 107.62 level. The next support lies at 107.51. From the upside, the resistance levels lie at 107.79 and 107.89 levels.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 3

03.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the British PM Boris Johnson – 13:30 MT (10:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

US ISM non-manufacturing PMI – 17:00 MT (14:00 GMT)

EUR/USD stuck above the 50-period SMA on H4 yesterday and moved up towards the resistance level at 1.0974. If the US dollar continues to weaken, buyers of the euro will break this level and push the pair towards the next resistance at 1.0994 (100-period SMA). On the other hand, if the USD is supported by the release of non-manufacturing PMI, the pair will slide below the 1.0954 level. After that, bears of EUR/USD will be waiting for a retest of the 1.0928-1.0936 levels. Reaching the 1.0928 level will increase the chance of a test of the ascending channel's lower border. The breakout of that border will make the pair vulnerable to the fall towards 1.0908.

GBP/USD has been consolidating above the 200-period SMA on the mixed news about the new plan by the British PM Boris Johnson. Bulls are looking for a breakout of the 1.2317-1.23330 levels. Such a move will increase the possibility of reaching the resistance level at 1.2353. Downside movement will be limited by the 1.2272-1.2284 levels. Further support lies in the 1.2224-1.2234 area. The cable may get volatile on the speech by the British PM Boris Johnson at 13:30 MT.

Weak USD is positive for gold bulls. The price for the yellow metal has been testing the 1,504.8 resistance level. The next resistance will lie at $1,507.6. If this level is broken, bulls may push the higher to the $1,510.7 level. On the other hand, the breakout of the $1,497.4 level will make gold vulnerable to the fall towards the $1,493.6 level. The next support will lie at $1,489. Pay attention to RSI, as it is moving close to the overbought zone.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 4: NFP edition

04.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Non-farm employment change (non-farm payrolls) – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Average hourly earnings – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Unemployment change – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

The market is awaiting US employment data at 15:30 MT time. What are the forecasts? The level of average hourly earnings is forecast to increase by 0.3%, while non-farm payrolls are expected to advance by 130 thousand. At the same time, analysts anticipate the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7%. If the actual levels of average hourly earnings and NFP are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will appreciate against other currencies.

What are the key levels for the pairs ahead of the release?

EUR/USD has been consolidating near the 1.0979 level on H4. If the figures of today’s indicators are better than the expectations, the pair will slide downwards to the 1.0957 level. If bears are so excited by the release, they will break the support at 1.0957 and drag the pair below the 50-period SMA at 1.0947 and a lower border of the ascending channel. The next support will be placed at 1.0929-1.0936.

In case of a disappointing NFP release, bulls will be looking for a breakout of the 1.0979 level. Further upside momentum will be limited by the 1.0992 (100-period SMA) and 1.1 levels. If EUR/USD overcomes these levels, the pair will rise as far as the 1.1021 level will be reached.

GBP/USD may move on the NFP release, too. At the moment, it is consolidating between the resistance at 1.2354 and the support at 1.2324 on the 4-hour chart. If the USD is supported, bears will break the 1.2324 level and pull the cable towards the 1.2306 level (200-period SMA). Further key levels for bears will lie at 1.2273-1.2283. In case of an alternative scenario, GBP/USD will try to break the 1.2354 level. The next resistance level will lie at 1.2373. In case of a breakout, the pair will rise upwards to the 1.2419 level.

Will USD/JPY slide lower? It is the main question ahead of the NFP data. It is obvious, that disappointment in indicators will result in the selling action of the pair, which may pull it below the support at 106.72 to the next support level at 106.47 (look at H4). The next level will be placed below the descending trend line at 106.34. On the other hand, bulls will be waiting for a retest of the 106.95 level. The next resistance in their focus will be situated at 107.09 (200-period SMA)

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important events this week will bring us!

07.10.2019

FOMC meeting minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)) – If the release contains any hawkish hints on the further Fed’s decisions, the USD will go up.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell (Wed, 18:00 MT (15:00 GMT)) – If the Fed Chair provides hawkish comments, the USD will be supported.

British GDP and manufacturing production (Thu, 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, GDP growth is expected to remain at the same level, while the indicator of manufacturing production is forecast to increase by 0.1%. If the actual figures are higher, the British pound may get a positive momentum.

US CPI and core CPI (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – The indicator of a headline consumer inflation is anticipated to increase by 0.1%, while its core level (without food and energy prices) is going to increase by 0.2%, according to analysts. Higher-than-expected figures will be good for US dollar.

Canadian employment change and unemployment rate (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Canadian dollar will rise.

Hot news:

The British pound is awaiting the Brexit court ruling on legislation called “the Benn Act”. It requires the Government to either reach a deal or get Parliament’s approval for a no-deal Brexit by October 19.

The US-China trade talks are expected to continue on Thursday and Friday in Washington.

 

[SebsCubs]

GBP/USD slides below the 1.22 level as the UK-EU Brexit talks are about to break down

08.10.2019

Different sources inform that during today's telephone call the German Chancellor Angela Merkel told to the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the deal could be reached only if Northern Ireland stays in the customs union. In response, the source has said that Mr. Johnson said that reaching a deal would be impossible.
GBP/USD has plunged below the 50-day SMA and tested the support at 1.2196. The next support levels will lie at 1.21-1.2138. From the upside, the rise will be limited by the 1.2294 level. The next resistance will be placed at 1.2355.

 

[SebsCubs]

Oil market updates on October 9

09.10.2019

Crude oil inventories – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT) time

The oil prices slid lower after the private survey of crude oil inventories showed a larger-than-expected level. The number of barrels held in inventories increased by 4.13 million (vs. +1.7 million expected).

Today oil traders are awaiting the weekly release of US crude oil inventories by the Energy Information Administration. According to the forecasts, the number of barrels will advance by 1.8 million. If the actual level is lower, the oil prices will go up. Alternatively, if the number of barrels is higher than the forecasts, the prices for crude will fall down.

After the fall to the $51.9 level, the price for WTI managed to recover and tested the $53.3 level on the 4-hour chart. If the number of barrels is greater than the forecasts, bulls will break the $53.3 level and target the further levels above the 50-period SMA at $54 and $54.3. The next resistance lies at $54.67. On the other hand, if the number of barrels outperforms the forecasts, the price of WTI will fall below the $52.3 level and try to reach the $51.9 support level. After that, reaching the $51 support level seems possible.

The Brent’s price, in its turn, has tested the $58.8 level. From the upside, next resistance levels in bulls’ focus will lie at $59.3. After that the price will face the $59.65-$59.8 levels. If bulls overcome them, the resistance at $60 will be their target. Key levels from the downside are $57.9, $57.5 and $57.1.

Note, that you need to choose WTI and Brent futures in MT4 to start trading oil.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 10

10.10.2019

Key events ahead:

US-China trade talks

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 12:20 MT (9:30 GMT)

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 14:30 MT (11:30 GMT)

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

The Asian trading session was highlighted by the mixed reports ahead of US-China trade talks. The news that the US administration will issue licenses, which will allow sales to Huawei and that a currency agreement between the counties may be reached, boosted the risk sentiment in the markets. Let’s see how the currency pairs reacted to this news and what levels we need to pay attention to.

EUR/USD bulls reacted optimistically to the news about the progress in US-China trade negotiations. The pair has broken the upper border of the long-term descending channel and risen to the 1.1023 level. If this level is broken, the pair will rise further to the 1.1037 level. The next key resistance level will be placed at 1.1055. If the risk sentiment fades away, EUR/USD will fall below the 200-period SMA towards the support at 1.0985. Bears may be looking for a breakout of this level and attempt to pull the pair lower to the 1.0967 level.

AUD/USD inched higher, too. Bulls have been trying to push the pair higher towards the 100-period SMA on H4, which lies close to the 0.6757 level. The next resistance level will lie at 0.6771. After the breakout, reaching the 0.6780 level may seem possible. In case of risk-off sentiment, the pair will reverse to the 50-period SMA near the 0.6734 level. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at 0.6728. After that, it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 0.6709.

As the trading session will be driven by the updates from the US-China trade talks, we expect USD/JPY to move, too. In case of a risk-on sentiment, the pair will rise above the 107.59 level (100-period SMA) on H4. The further resistance levels will lie at 107.67 and 107.75. In case of negative news, it is recommended to look for a breakout of the support at 107.33 (50-period SMA). The next support will lie at 107.22 (200-period SMA). The breakout of this level will make the pair vulnerable to the fall to 107.03 (lower border of the ascending trading channel).

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 11

11.10.2019

Key events ahead:

US-China trade talks

Meeting between the EU chief negotiator Michel Barnier and UK Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay - 10:00 MT (7:00 GMT) time

Canadian employment change and unemployment rate – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT) time

EUR/USD has been consolidating above the 1.0994 level (200-period MA on the 4-hour chart). The next resistance, which bulls will try to reach, will be placed at 1.1023. The further rise may be restricted by the 1.1046 level. In case of an alternative scenario, when bears may try to break the 1.1005 level, they will pull the pair lower towards the support at 1.0994. After that, the next key support will lie at 1.0985.

The British pound has been moving up on positive news surrounding Brexit. Yesterday’s comments by the Irish Prime Minister expressed optimistic views on the outcome of the meeting with the UK PM Boris Johnson. Today the European Council president Donald Tusk said that the EU is awaiting a final proposal by the PM today ahead of the European summit next week. GBP/USD has surged above the long-term descending trendline and tested the highs above the 1.2520 level on H4. If the bullish mood in the market continues, there is a chance of the pair to reach the 1.2558 level. After that, the next key resistance will lie at 1.2577. From the downside, the levels are 1.2480, 1.2462 and 1.2435.

The Canadian dollar is awaiting Canada's jobs data. According to the forecasts, the employment change will advance by 11.2 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 5.7%. If the actual figures are positive, USD/CAD will break the support at 1.3268 and pull the pair below the 200-period SMA to the 1.3259 level. The next support level will lie at 1.3253. If the pair reverses, it will retest the 1.3296 resistance level. Bulls will be looking for a breakout of this level to reach 1.3306.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 15

15.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Bostic – 16:00 MT (13:00 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member George – 19:45 MT (16:25 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Bullard – 22:25 MT (19:25 GMT)

Speech by the FOMC member Daly – 22:30 MT (19:30 GMT)

GBP/USD has retested its recent highs above the 1.27 level after the comments by the EU chief Brexit negotiator about the possibility of a Brexit deal this week. Today we anticipate the UK to suggest fresh Brexit proposals after the meeting between the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and DUP leader Arlene Foster. It’s highly recommended to follow the headlines, as the GBP gets volatile on the announcements. In case of positive news, the cable may inch higher to the 1.2684 resistance level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.2706. Further levels in bulls’ focus will lie at 1.2725 and 1.2741. Alternatively, bears will pull the GBP/USD pair lower to the support at 1.2630. The next support will be placed at 1.2576. If this level is broken, the chances of reaching the 1.2515 level will increase. Technically, RSI is moving within an overbought zone. If it leaves this zone, it may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.

EUR/USD is looking for further direction. The pair has been consolidating between 1.1034 and 1.1024 levels but has already tested the resistance level at 1.1045 and the support level at 1.1014. If bulls take over the market, the breakout of the 1.1034 level will happen and the next resistance will be placed at 1.1045. On the other hand, bears will be looking for a break of the 1.1024 to slide lower to the 1.1014 level.

The US threatened Turkey with tariffs on steel yesterday after the Turkish military actions in Syria. USD/TRY reached the resistance at 5.9202 but slid lower to the support at 5.8590. If bulls regain their positions, the pair will rise higher to the 5.9120 level and may retest the 5.9202 resistance level. The pair may rise as far as the 5.94 level will be reached. If a correction to the downside happens, the pair will fall lower to the 5.8590 level. The next support will be situated at 5.8396. MACD oscillator shows a bearish divergence with the price.

 

[SebsCubs]

The aussie may move on a jobs data

16.10.2019

Australia will publish the level of employment change and the unemployment rate at 3:30 MT on October 17.

The indicator of employment change shows the change in the number of employed people during the previous month. The unemployed rate, released at the same time as employment change, represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed. According to the forecast, employment change will advance by 15.3 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate will remain at the same level of 5.3%. How may the indicators move the AUD?

• If the employment change is higher, and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will rise;

• If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the AUD will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 17

17.10.2019

Key events ahead

British retail sales - 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT)

EU Economic Summit – all day

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

Speech by the RBA Governor Philip Lowe – 23:00 MT (20:00 GMT)

Yesterday’s reports that the Brexit deal was not reached ahead of the European summit scheduled for today pulled the British pound lower. GBP/USD slid to the support at 1.2745. If this level is broken, the next support will be placed at 1.2686. The next support levels will lie at 1.2662 and 1.2641. From the upside, the first key resistance will lie at 1.2877. After the breakout, reaching the 1.2920 and 1.2943 levels seem possible.

AUD/USD has risen on a lower-than-expected unemployment rate and the news that China is discussing the next phase of trade talks. The pair has crossed the 200-period SMA and moved higher to the 0.6804 level. If bulls overcome this level, the next resistance levels will be placed at 0.6810 and 0.6818. In case of a reversal, pay attention to the 0.6780 level. After that, reaching the support level at 0.6773 seems possible.

NZD/USD has been supported as the risk sentiment in the market gets better. The kiwi has tested the 200-period SMA. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6330. After that, the next resistance will be situated at 0.6345. From the downside, bears will pay attention to 0.6288, 0.6277 and 0.6267.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 18

18.10.2019

EU economic summit – all day

Speech by the FOMC member Clarida – 18:30 MT (15:30 GMT)

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 20:45 MT (17:45 GMT)

Brexit news continues to move the market ahead of the significant vote on Saturday. The GBP/USD pair has been trading between the support at 1.2838 and the resistance at 1.2890. If the resistance at 1.2890 is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 1.2920. After that, the retest of the levels close to 1.2970 seems possible. From the downside, the breakout of the 1.2838 level may lead bears to move towards 1.2749.

After the test of the 108.92 level, USD/JPY slid lower to the 108.46 support level. If it is broken, bears may take over the market and pull the pair lower to 108.16. The next support will be placed at 107.79. In case of an alternative scenario, the pair may break the 108.92 level and rise above the 200-period SMA to the next resistance level at 109.45. If we look at oscillators, we can see that RSI is moving close to the overbought zone.

Yesterday’s negotiations between the US and Turkey were productive as the countries agreed to a ceasefire in Syria. As a result, USD/TRY dropped heavily below the 50- and 100-period SMAs on H4. Bears are trying to reach the 5.7537 level. The next support will be placed at 5.7288. In case of a reversal, the first resistance to watch will be placed at 5.7990. After that, reaching the 5.8144 level will be desirable by bulls.

 

[SebsCubs]

Important events this week will bring us

21.10.2019

Canada’s core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will advance by 0.1%. If the actual level is higher, the CAD will rise.

French flash services PMI, German flash manufacturing PMI and German flash services PMI (Thu, 10:15-10:30 MT (7:15-7:30 GMT)) – Higher-than-expected figures will be positive for the euro.

A monetary policy statement by the European Central bank and press conference (Thu, 14:45 and 15:30 MT (11:30 and 12:30 GMT)) – The changes to the interest rate are not expected, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement and the comments by the ECB president during press conference.

US core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts forecast a decline of 0.2%. If the actual figures outperform the forecasts, the USD will be supported.

Hot news:

During the weekend, the UK Parliament made a vote, which forced the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to write to the EU asking for a three-month extension. Today, Boris Johnson will try again to put his deal to a vote in the House of Commons. At first, it is highly recommended to pay attention to the statement by the speaker John Bercow at 17:30 MT time, where he may announce the decision concerning the meaningful vote.

Monday is an election day in Canada. Some of the analysts suggest that the Conservative party in the government will be better for the loonie than the current Labour one. The competition is going to be a tight one.

 

[SebsCubs]

Market updates on October 22

22.10.2019

Key events ahead:

Canada’s core retail sales – 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT)

BOC business outlook survey – 17:30 MT (14:30 GMT)

Parliament Brexit Vote – 21:00 MT (18:00 GMT)

Yesterday, the speaker John Bercow rejected the possibility of a significant vote. The news pulled the GBP down a little bit. Will the vote happen today? If it is, GBP/USD may retest the resistance at 1.2985. The next resistance will lie at 1.3011. After that, the 1.3059 level will be in bulls' focus. In case of a vote's delay, the pair will slide below the lower border of the ascending trading channel and target the support at 1.29. After that, the 1.2864 level will be in the focus of bears. The next support level will be placed at 1.2834.

USD/CAD formed a Doji candlestick on the 4-hour chart and bounced towards the resistance level at 1.3088. Today, the CAD traders may take advantage of the release of Canada’s core retail sales at 15:30 MT. According to the forecasts, the indicator will remain unchanged. If the actual level is higher, USD/CAD will slide below the 1.3077 level and move down to the next support at 1.3066. After that, reaching the 1.3052 level seems possible. From the upside, the key levels to watch are 1.3088, 1.3098 and 1.3128. RSI is moving within an oversold zone.

Yesterday, USD/JPY fell lower and tested the support at 108.36. If the risk sentiment is off, the further support levels will lie at 108.13 and 107.91. On the other hand, the pair may rise to the resistance level at 108.73. If it is broken, it is recommended to pay attention to the 108.9 and 109.42 levels.