Forex basics and my trading with FBS

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 4

04.07.2019

What currency pairs to watch today?

After the test of the 61.8% Fibo near the 1.1270 level on H4, the EUR/USD pair has been ranging between this level and resistance at 1.1294 (50% Fibo level). The bullish strength will be confirmed if the pair manages to break the current resistance and stick above the 100-period SMA. In that case, the rise may be limited by the next resistance at 1.1343 (50-period SMA). From the downside, the break of the 1.1270 level will increase the risks of the further fall towards the 1.1252 level (200-period SMA). This is also the border of the ascending trading channel.

Yesterday, GBP/USD slid towards the 1.2556 level. On H4, the pair is currently consolidating between 1.2556 and 1.2589-1.2597 levels. The weakness of the GBP will put additional pressure to the pair. As a result, if the 1.2556 level is broken, the next support will lie at 1.2510. On the other hand, the inability of bears to break the 1.2556 level will help bulls to retest the upper border of the consolidation range between 1.2589 and 1.2597. If these levels are broken, the pair will rise to the next resistance at 1.2632.

AUD/USD was unable to stick near the strong resistance at 0.7047 and fell below the 0.7022 level at the beginning of the day. Bulls need to break this level to restore the upward moving channel. However, MACD formed a bearish divergence with the price that is why we may expect further fall. From the downside, the 0.7011 and 0.7 levels are important for bears.

The kiwi has fallen below the 0.6693 level towards the 0.6674 level, which lies close to the 23.6% Fibo and 50-period SMA. The strength of bears will be confirmed if the pair manages to fall below this level and target the next support at 0.6656. The next key level for sellers will lie at 0.6629. If buyers take back control over the market, the kiwi will retest the resistance at 0.6693. The break of this level make it possible to retest the 0.6717 level.

 

SebsCubs

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Non-farm payrolls: what pairs to watch?

05.07.2019

Analysts anticipate the level of non-farm payrolls to increase by 162K jobs (vs. 75K previously). At the same time, the level of average hourly earnings is forecast to advance by 0.3% (vs. 0.2% previously) and the unemployment rate is expected to stay stable at 3.6%. If the NFP and average hourly earnings are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the USD will go up. Be careful with your trades as the USD gets super volatile after the release.

CHECK THE STRATEGY OF TRADING THE NFP HERE

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The USD has got stronger ahead of the release, but will the situation change after 15:30 MT?

· On H4, EUR/USD has crossed the 1.1270 level (61.8% Fibo) and is currently moving downwards to the 1.1257 level, which lies close to the 200-period SMA and the lower border of the ascending channel. If the employment data is positive, the pair will fall below the 1.1257 level towards the next support at 1.1223. There is the possibility for EUR/USD to reach the next support at 1.1219 and test the next level at 1.1202, of bearish pressure is strong. On the other hand, if the employment data disappoints, EUR/USD will rise back to the resistance at 1.1288, jump above the 50% Fibo level and go higher to the next resistance at 1.1319.

· GBP/USD has been testing the lower border of the consolidation range at 1.2556 on H4. If the USD gets stronger on the release, the fall towards the next support at 1.2510 will be possible. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance levels at 1.2589, 1.2604 and 1.2635.

· USD/JPY has jumped above the 100-period SMA on H4 in anticipation of the release. The next resistance levels for the pair lie at 108.12, 108.36 and 108.49. In case of a negative release, USD/JPY will fall back to 107.74. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 107.56. Stochastic indicator is about to form a crossover within the oversold zone, which may provide us selling opportunity.
 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 8

08.07.2019

Last Friday the NFP outperformed the estimates. It increased by 224 thousand jobs (vs. 162 thousand expected). As a result, the USD strengthened and pulled EUR/USD down. On H4, the pair has been making modest gains towards the 1.1232 level. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 1.1246. RSI is moving close to the 30 level and may signal a buying opportunity if it crosses this level from bottom to top. If the USD gets stronger, there is a possibility for the pair to break the 1.1219 level. The next support will lie at 1.1202.

GBP/USD tested the lows at 1.2480 on Friday after the employment release for the US and stuck near the 1.2510 level. On H4, bulls need to push the pair above the 1.2541 level to confirm their strength. In that case, the cable will rise as far as the 1.2589 level will be reached. From the downside, pay attention to the 1.2510 and 1.2480 levels.

After the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan fired the head of the central bank as the Governor had not cut the interest rate, the Turkish lira fell down. On H4, USD/TRY formed a gap up at the beginning of the trading day. The rise of the pair was limited by the 100-period SMA near the 5.7557 level. If the Turkish lira continues to weaken, the next resistance levels will lie at 5.7794 and 5.8. On the other hand, the pair may correct to the support at 5.6967. The next support will lie at 5.6616.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 9

09.07.2019

The US dollar has continued to gain strength on the improved outlook and the cooling in the US-China trade tensions. On H4, EUR/USD slid towards the support at 1.1202. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at 1.1185. Bulls need to push the pair above the 1.1217 level. If they succeed, buying action will be limited by the 1.1232 level.

GBP/USD has tested the lows below the 1.2480 level on H4. The next support is placed at the level of the January’s flash crash at 1.2418. If the British pound is supported, the cable will try to break the descending trading channel and rise towards the resistance at 1.2541. The next key level will lie at 1.2604.

The Australian dollar weakened on the poor Business confidence data. The indicator dropped to 2 (vs. 7 previously). Combined with a stronger USD, this release pulled the aussie down. On H4, the AUD/USD pair has fallen below the 100- and 200- period SMA. The downward movement will complete the double top pattern. The next major support for the pair will be at 0.6920. After that pay attention to the 61.8% Fibo level at 0.6913. From the upside, levels at 0.6968 (38.2% Fibo) and 0.6989 will be important for bulls.

The New Zealand dollar has fallen below the support at the 50% Fibo level at 0.6608 on H4. The next support will lie at 0.6581, which is close to the 61.6% Fibo. Alternatively, the strong bullish surge may push the kiwi above the 100-period SMA at 0.6629. After that, reaching the 0.6641 and 0.6652 resistance levels seem possible.

Gold continues falling down due to the firmer USD. At the moment, it is targeting the support at $1,384. After the breakout, sellers will pay attention to the next support at $1,364. From the upside, the traders of the yellow metal will keep an eye on the $1,397 and $1,416 resistance levels.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 10

10.07.2019

Key events ahead:

BOC rate statement – 17:00 MT

The bank won’t change its rate, that is why pay attention to its tone

Testimony by the Fed chair – 17:00 MT

More hints on the expected rate cut will weaken the USD

FOMC meeting minutes – 21:00 MT

Less dovish insights will bring positive momentum to the USD

· GBP/USD has continued to move within the downward trading channel on H4. If the British pound is supported today, the pair will break the 1.2459 level. After that, the rise above the 1.2476 level seems possible. The next key level for bulls will be placed at 1.2521. From the downside, the first support lies at 1.2439, the next one – at 1.2379.

· EUR/USD has been knocking the resistance at 1.1217 on H4. If this level is broken, the further rise will be limited by the 1.1232 level. The next resistance will lie at 1.1246. If the USD gets stronger today, the pair will fall below the 1.12 level which is correlated with the long-term trendline and target the next support at 1.1187. After that, the next key level in focus of bears will be placed at 1.1178.

· USD/CAD has been awaiting the central bank’s decision and testimony by the Fed chair. The pair has been trading within a narrow range on H4. Hawkish comments for the CAD will pull the pair below the 1.3119 level. The next support level will lie at 1.3104. After the breakout, the pair may fall below the 50-period SMA and target the 1.3084 level. On the other hand, strong USD will push the pair above the 1.3132 level. The next resistance levels will lie at 1.3146 and 1.3158. There is a possibility for the pair to complete the formation of the double bottom pattern if the pair manages to break the 1.3132 and 1.3146 levels.

· During the Asian trading session, the NZD/USD pair has tested the 0.6567 level. There was no clear reason behind this sellout. At the moment, the pair is trying to recover. On H4, it is moving towards the 50% Fibo above the 200-period SMA. If it manages to stick above this level, the rise will continue until the 0.6618 level will be reached. The support levels from the downside are 0.6581 (61.8% Fibo) and 0.6567.

· USD/JPY has been trading within the uptrend on H4. If the USD is supported today, the pair will break the resistance at 109. The next resistance will lie at 109.21. If the Fed chair provides dovish comments, the fall below the 108.71 level will be inevitable. The next support will lie at 108.51.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 11

11.07.2019

Key events ahead

BOE Financial Stability Report – 12:30 MT time

Hawkish outlines will support the British pound

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 13:00 MT time

His comments regarding future changes to the monetary policy will affect the GBP

ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts – 14:30 MT time

More insights into the previous dovish meeting of the ECB

US CPI and core CPI – 15:30 MT time

Higher-than-expected figures may help the USD to recover

Testimony by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell – 17:00 MT time

Let’s hear further comments by the dovish Fed Chair

Speech by the FOMC member Quarles – 20:30 MT time

Probably the last chance for the USD bulls to see the rise of the USD today, if the comments by the FOMC member are less dovish.


Yesterday, the dovish remarks on the expectations of a rate cut by the Fed weakened the USD against other currencies. On H4, EUR/USD has managed to stick above the crossover of the 50-period and 200-period SMA near the 1.1269 level. If the USD continues to weaken, bulls will likely face the resistance at 1.1285. After the breakout, the rise will be limited by the 1.1306 level. The next key level is 1.1321. If the USD gets positive momentum, the euro will slide below the 1.1269 level. The next support levels will lie at 1.1257 and 1.1249. Pay attention to the oscillators: if RSI leaves the overbought zone and Stochastic forms a crossover it may bring a short-term selling opportunity.

GBP/USD also started to correct to the upside on dovish comments by Powell. The cable has already tested the resistance at 1.2538 on H4. The next key level will lie at 1.2587 (50% Fibo). If this level is broken, we need to pay attention to the 1.2603 and 1.2636 levels. From the downside, the support levels lie at 1.2508, 1.2496 and 1.2479. The stochastic indicator is about to form a crossover within the overbought zone.

USD/JPY, in its turn, corrected to the downside. The first resistance for the pair lies at 108.13 (38.2% Fibo), If this level is broken, the next resistance will be placed at 108.26 (50-period SMA). The strength of bulls will be proved after the next level at 108.37 is reached. On the other hand, weak USD will pull the pair to the support at 107.88 (50% Fibo). The next important level for bears lies at 107.61 (61.8% Fibo level).

Oil has been rising on the news that third of the Gulf of Mexico’s crude output was halted by a storm and the crude oil inventories for the US declined more than expected (-9.5M vs. -1.9M).

WTI jumped to its May’s highs. The crude’s price is currently moving towards the resistance at $61.23 on H4. The next resistance for WTI will lie at $62.11. From the downside, pay attention to the $60.66 and $59.73 levels.

As for Brent, its price is going up to the resistance at $67.68. The next resistance will lie at $68.11. The key support levels are $67.39, $66.5 and $66.03.

 

SebsCubs

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Weekly Cryptonews

12.07.2019

Charlie Lee, creator of Litecoin:

“Crypto’s really risky. I've seen many bear markets or crashes that are 90% down … when the price does crash, it shakes off all the weak hands. So, my point was that if you can't withstand a 90% drop, then don't buy-in, because it's too risky for you."

After the test of the $13,130 level on Wednesday, the price for BTC dropped to the support at $11,000. If the price for the digital currency gets more pressure from the downside, the retest of the $11,000 level (lower border of the symmetrical triangle) will be possible. In that case, the next support will lie at $10,560. The break of this level will increase the possibility of the test of the 38.2% Fibo at $10,020. If the price for the oldest crypto gets bullish momentum, it will rise to the resistance at $12,030, after that the resistance will lie at $12,370. If bulls manage to overcome these resistance levels, the test of the $12,770 level will be inevitable.



Regulations:

· This week was remarkable for the comments by the US officials on crypto. At first, the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called Bitcoin a store of value, like gold. After that, US President Donald Trump tweeted that cryptocurrencies are not money and their value is based on thin air. According to his words, the only currency in the USA is USD.

· US Security and exchange commission (SEC) allowed conducting the first ICO to the Blockstack project.

· Turkish central bank plans to make its own cryptocurrency. It seems like the policymakers gave up on the Turkish lira, doesn’t it?

· Authorities of Iran age going to legalize mining.

· US tax regulator promised to develop new methods to deal with the tax fraud.
New developments:

· Goldman Sachs opened its own crypto department and now is ready to compete with JP Morgan.

· The news about the search in the TRON office turned out to be fake.
Current prices (last update 15:16 MT time):

Bitcoin $11,698

DASH: $148.87

Ethereum: $276.56

Litecoin: $105.62
 

SebsCubs

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5 important events this week will bring us!

15.07.2019

US retail sales and core retail sales (Tue, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – According to analysts, both headline and core retail sales will advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will boost the USD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 20:00 MT (17:00 GMT time)) – If Mr. Powell provides supportive comments for the USD this time, the US dollar will go up.

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (8:30 GMT time)) – The indicator is expected to increase by 2%. If the actual release outperforms the forecasts, the GBP will rise.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT (1:30 GMT time)) – Analysts anticipate the slowdown in the employment change (from +42.3K last time to +9.1K) and the stable level of the unemployment rate at 5.2%. If the actual figures of employment change are higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the Australian dollar will move up.

Canadian core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (12:30 GMT time)) – The indicator is forecast to increase by 0.3%. Greater figures will be positive for the loonie.

Hot news:

After the release of Chinese GDP growth showed the slowdown, reaching only 6.2%, US President Donald Trump tweeted that China wants to make a trade deal soon.

 

SebsCubs

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Market updates on July 16

16.07.2019

Speech by the BOE Governor Mark Carney – 15:00 MT time

If the governor’s comments regarding monetary policy are hawkish, the British pound will move up.

Speech by the FOMC member Bowman – 15:15 MT time

If the policymaker softens his comments concerning the rate cut, the USD will go up.

US retail sales and core retail sales – 15:30 MT time

The key release for the USD today. Both headline and core indicators are expected to advance by 0.1%. Higher figures will bring positive momentum for the USD.

Speech by the Fed Chair Powell – 20:00 MT time

Speech by the FOMC member Evans – 22:30 MT time

Pay attention to the hints on the rate cut by the Fed speakers.


The New Zealand dollar was supported today by the release of its CPI during the Asian trading session. The indicator came out in line with the forecasts as it advanced by 0.6%. On H4, NZD/USD retested the resistance at 0.6734 but failed to break it. If the USD is supported today, the pair will move lower to the support at 0.6716. The next key support levels lie at 0.67 and 0.6670. From the upside, pay attention to the resistance at 0.6734. If this level is broken, the further rise will be limited by the 0.6748 level. RSI is about to leave the overbought zone and Stochastic indicator formed a crossover. These facts may provide us a short-term selling opportunity.

The British pound weakened significantly ahead of the employment data and the speech by the BOE governor. It has tested the ground below the 1.2479 level on H4. The next support in the focus of bears will lie at 1.2439. If the cable reverses, the pair will retest the 1.2520 level. If this resistance is broken, bulls will target the 1.2538 level. Stochastic indicator formed a crossover within the oversold zone.

EUR/USD has been consolidating between the 1.1284 and the 1.1236 levels since July 11. Today it has already tested the levels below the 50-period SMA at 1.1249. If the USD is supported today, bears will break the 1.1236 level and target the next support at 1.1220. Key resistance levels for the euro are 1.1263, 1.1274 and 1.1284.