Forex basics and my trading with FBS

[SebsCubs]

Hello, I want to start a recopilation of some general knowledge about Forex market.

RSI (Relative Strength Index)〽

RSI also helps to determine the overbought/oversold state of the market to buy low and sell high. The readings of the indicator fluctuate between 0 and 100. If RSI rises above 70 bound, it means that the pair is overbought. If RSI falls below the 30 line – the currency pair is oversold. Moreover, as with MACD, a divergence between RSI and price may warn of the market's reversal..

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[SebsCubs]

Weekly Cryptonews

25.01.2019

Martin Weiss, the founder of Weiss Ratings: “Like gold, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could become a haven for investors who flee from fiat currency devaluations. In fact, in one key aspect, it may be even better than gold: It cannot be confiscated by any government.”

Tuesday happened to be the most volatile day for Bitcoin this week, as the cryptocurrency fell below the $3,500 level, but managed to rebound quickly to the levels near $3,600. On the H4 chart, we can see that the grandfather of cryptocurrencies has been trading within the $3,586-3,642 range for the last three days. The rebounds from these levels may be used to open positions. For now, Bitcoin has already tested the ground below the support at $3,586. If this level is broken, the next support lies at $3,563. In case bulls get stronger, they may push its price above the resistance at $3,642. The next resistance is placed at $3,658. However, the overall picture of the market and the trend are still bearish. That is why we may expect further falls.

Other news:

Chicago exchange CBOE has canceled its request to approve VanEck and SolidX Bitcoin ETF (exchange-traded funds) due to the current government shutdown. It plans to ask for the approval again when the Security exchange commission starts to work.

Cryptocurrency bank Galaxy Digital plans to invest $250 million to issue credits to blockchain companies, which struggle with the bear market.

The candidate for the US president post, a huge supporter of crypto and the founder of the famous antivirus software John McAfee left the country after he was indicted on charges of tax fraud.

The market anticipates the presentation of the TON blockchain network and GRAM token by Pavel Durov during the World Economic Forum this week. This is a highly important event, which may affect the market positively. According to the news, TON will be launched in March.

The “World Economic and Social Survey 2018” report by the United Nations said cryptocurrencies and blockchain allow to switch their confidence from banks and governments to program codes.

Regulations:


Japanese Regulators Approve Startup’s Bitcoin Sidechain Trial for Exchanges

Chili and Romania plan to apply taxes on crypto operations’ income.

The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia develop a cryptocurrency for payments between banks or governments.

Bitcoin $3,656.5

Ethereum $118.45

Litecoin $33.31

DASH: $76.00

 

[SebsCubs]

The Fed’s comments may move the USD higher

29.01.2019

The Federal Reserve and the FOMC will make the monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on January 30 at 21:00 MT time.

There is no chance that the Fed will raise its current 2.5% interest rate. In addition, the recent dovish comments by the FOMC members and the Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled the pause in rate hikes if the US economy weakened. In case the monetary policy statement contains some positive data, the USD will get positive momentum.

• If the FOMC statement is hawkish, the USD will rise.

• If the FOMC statement is dovish, the USD will fall.

Check the economic calendar

 

[SebsCubs]

Average True Range
Average True Range (ATR) is an indicator of market’s volatility. In other words, it helps to determine the average size of the daily trading range. ATR rises when trading is more volatile (price bars are long) and falls during periods of low volatility (price bars are short). Use ATR to determine the best position for Stop orders.

We are going to learn!
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[NVP]

hey all

remember it is arguably a challenge to use indicators built for other markets in forex trading ?

also is it wise to use anything that was developed before the Forex retail platform / market materialised ?

Forex Trading for the retail market really did not develop until late 1990's ......but so many of the top 20 indicators were developed way before this ...

so why not focus on indicators developed for the forex market from late 90's to date ?

this is just a little hint / pointer .....I suspect you are about to go through a series of indicators where many will fail these filters ......like RSI as already discussed........

no worries with ATR ......thats a good one !!!

N

 

[SebsCubs]

Trading strategy with a dead cat bounce


Imagine that you trade your favorite currency pair in the long-lasted bear market. Suddenly, the price has started to go up. However, don’t get confused too quickly. There is a possibility that you faced with a so-called dead cat bounce. Wait, don’t be scared, FBS carries about animals and the environment! This is just the name of the short-term retracements. But they may actually be “deadly” for you, especially if you do not know how to trade during this situation and how to divide such bounce from the actual reversal. In the article, we provide you the explanation of the dead cat bounce and the trading strategy, which may be used to trade during this kind of reversal.

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[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us

04.02.2019

Reserve bank of Australia rate statement (Tue, 05:30 MT (03:30 GMT) time) – The rate hike is not expected, but the RBA may change its tone due to the global uncertainties. Any hints on future changes in rates may impact the AUD.

New Zealand’s jobs data (Wed, 23:45 MT (21:45 GMT) time) – The level of employment change is expected to rise by 0.3%. At the same time, the unemployment rate for the last quarter reached 4.1% according to analysts. Will the actual data support the NZD? Let’s wait for Wednesday.

Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Thu, 02:00 MT (00:00 GMT) time) – The Fed Chair Jerome Powell made some cautious comments on the future monetary policy during the previous meeting. His comments made the USD suffer. Will he sound more optimistic about the global picture this time, after the second round of trade negotiations successfully over?

Monetary policy summary by the Bank of England (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT) time) – The bank of England will not raise its interest rate, but the BOE may provide some support to the GBP amid the Brexit uncertainties.

Canadian jobs data (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – Last time the actual figures outperformed the forecasts, which made the CAD move higher. The projections for this month have not been announced yet. If the situation repeats itself, the CAD will rise.

Hot topics:

Traders keep their eyes on the Brexit progress. On Monday, Theresa May will meet with an Alternative Arrangements group. This group unites three hardline Brexiteers, who will start to find a solution to the Nothern Ireland backstop. The positive progress will support the British pound.

Asian markets, including China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Vietnam, will close for the whole week due to the start of the year of the Pig.

 

[SebsCubs]

Will the Bank of England make the GBP stronger?

06.02.2019

The Bank of England will release its monetary policy summary on February 7 at 14:00 MT time.

The bank will hold its interest rate unchanged at 0.75%. We anticipate the Bank of England to provide the comments on the possible rate hikes in 2019. Last time, the BOE mentioned the Brexit uncertainty as the key problem for the UK economy and lowered the economic growth and CPI projections for the fourth quarter of 2018. As a result, the GBP fell. Let’s see if this time the central bank succeeds to support the British currency.

• If the BOE is confident, the GBP will rise;

• If the BOE is unconfident, the GBP will fall.

 

[SebsCubs]

The jobs data may push the CAD up

[Link removed]
07.02.2019

Canada's jobs data is expected on February 8, at 15:30 MT time.

The employment indicators are very important, as they show the level of consumer spending in the country. Last time the actual figures supported the CAD. In particular, the level of employment change reached 9.3 thousand jobs (vs. the forecast of 6.8 thousand) and the unemployment rate fell to 5.6% (vs. the forecast of 5.7%). If this time the situation repeats itself, the CAD will be stronger.

• If the employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the CAD will move up;

• If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the CAD will fall down.

 

[SebsCubs]

China’s new bank loans head north in January

08.02.2019

In China, new bank loans tacked on to a one-year maximum in the first month of this year, as a Reuters survey disclosed. It became possible due to the fact that the Chinese cabinet kept spurring commercial lenders to extend more credit to cash-strapped businesses in a decelerating economy.

In January, Chinese financial institutions were anticipated to have extended up to 2.8 trillion Yuan in net new loans, which is more than December’s outcome of 1.08 trillion Yuan. It would be the highest outcome since the record result of 2.9 trillion Yuan demonstrated in January 2018.

For the entire 2018, the Asian country’s financial institutions extended a record 16.17 trillion Yuan in new loans after the major financial institution on four occasions in 2018 reduced the amount of cash that they needed to keep as reserves.

However, it didn’t stop the world's number two economy from soaring at the weakest tempo since 1990. Market experts told that a faster tempo of credit expansion is required to keep the American economy from decelerating too fast.

In January, the country’s major bank cut the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 100 basis points, thus stimulating them to lend more. Market experts expect a further 150 bps dive by year-end.

At the end of 2018, China’s major bank has also deployed fresh tools, including the Targeted Medium-Term Lending Facility. The measure is expected to provide longer-term liquidity for financial institutions to back loan surge.

However, China isn’t anticipated to flood the national financial system with credit at once. Instead, the major bank will stick to its line on keeping policy neither too loose not too tight.

Previously, some sources revealed that the PBOC urged some financial institutions to moderate their tempo of lending last month.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!



11.02.2019

Britain’s GDP and manufacturing production (Mon, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT) time) – According to analysts, British GDP growth will remain at the same level. As for the level of manufacturing production, it is expected to advance by 0.2%. Higher-than-expected figures will support the British pound.

New Zealand's monetary policy statement and press conference (Wed, 3:00 and 4:00 MT (1:00 and 2:00 GMT) time) – The rate hike is not going to happen, but the tone of the statement, as well as the comments by the RBNZ governor Adrian Orr during the press conference, may provide additional volatility to the NZD.

Britain’s CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT) time) – The level of consumer price index for Great Britain is anticipated to decline to 1.9% in January. If the actual figures are higher, the GBP will be supported amid the Brexit uncertainties.

US CPI and core CPI (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – As for the US indicators, the headline CPI is expected to increase by 0.1%, while its core level (without food and energy) will rise by 0.2%. If the data is even more positive, the USD will strengthen.

US PPI, retail sales and core retail sales (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) – Finally, on Friday the USD may rise due to the following releases. Analysts predict the levels of retail sales and PPI to increase by 0.1%. As for the level of core retail sales, it is projected to stay at the last month’s levels.

Hot topics:

Brexit remains one of the key uncertainties for the market and for the British pound in particular. The next Brexit debates at the Parliament are scheduled for February 14. During this meeting, the British Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to announce the results of her negotiations with the EU. However, May’s attempts to make changes to the current deal were rejected by the President of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker last week. That is why this meeting won’t be final in the long-lasting Brexit drama. Reportedly, the next vote on Theresa May’s deal is likely to happen no earlier than on February 25-27. As the final deadline for Britain's divorce with the EU comes closer, Theresa May wrote a letter to the Labor opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn suggesting a discussion between the parties to consider "alternative arrangements" to the Irish backstop. If her negotiations are successful, this may bring support to the British pound.

The third round of trade talks between the US and China is expected this week in Beijing. The previous discussions were successful but did not lead to the final deal. This meeting will impact the market sentiment a lot, as the investors will be looking for any significant progress ahead of the final deadline of the trade truce on March 1.

Also, the US government may be shut down again, if the officials do not reach an agreement on Trump's demand for funding the wall between the US and Mexico until February 15. If it happens, the USD will be affected.

 

[hatemypips]

Please stop spamming with you bucket shop broker or you will be reported. If you post analysis do it without mentioning the broker you trade?

Or you have purpose of advertising it?

 

[SebsCubs]

Wall Street jumps on US-China trade upbeat mood

15.02.2019

On Friday, Wall Street's key indexes were braced for reporting their biggest weekly profits for a month because traders were quite optimistic about the everlasting trade negotiations to tackle a bruising tariff clash between China and America.

Donald Trump told that negotiations with China are going well and his country is very close to making a good deal with the Asian partner. Next week, talks between the world’s two leading economies will resume in the USA.

Expectations for a trade pact ahead of a March 1 deadline has assisted the trade-sensitive industrials to earn about 17% this year, thus making it the best S&P sector in terms of performance.

The group went up by 1.13% backed by bellwethers Boeing Co as well as Caterpillar Inc.

The markets generally neglected US leader declaring a national emergency in an attempt to finance his announced wall at the US-Mexico border without congressional approval.

Notwithstanding the threat of a national emergency, all 11 key S&P sectors managed to ascend, with financials soaring by 1.89%, becoming the top-notch performer.

The banking sector ascended by 2.62% backed by key American lenders. As a matter of fact, Wells Fargo, Bank of America Corp, and JPMorgan Chase & Co tacked on 1.7%-3% right after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway ramped up its stake in the companies.

ET the Dow Jones Industrial Average headed north by 1.36% being worth 25,785.36. As for the S&P 500, it jumped by 0.82% hitting 2,768.25, while the Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.38% reaching 7,455.49.

The S&P jumped over 10%, powered by a dovish Federal Reserve, progress on trade as well as a mostly positive fourth-quarter earnings reports.

Nvidia Corp headed north by 2.5%, while Newell Brands Inc lost 20.4%.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!

18.02.2019

FOMC Meeting Minutes (Wed, 21:00 MT (19:00 GMT) time) – The Federal Reserve announced the “patient” way of its monetary policy and decided to leave its interest rates unchanged during the last meeting in January. The minutes from that meeting will shed more light on the current economic outlook by the Fed. If it contains any supportive data for the greenback, the American currency will go up.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 2:30 MT (00:30 GMT) time) – the level of employment change is expected to advance by 15.2 thousand jobs. At the same time, the level of the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level of 5%. If employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will go up.

US headline and core durable goods orders (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) - According to analysts, the level of durable goods orders will increase by 0.8%, while its core level will rise by 0.2%. The higher-than-expected figures will push the USD higher.

Canadian retail sales and core retail sales (Fri, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT) time) - The headline indicator will likely remain at the same level. As for core retail sales, analysts expect it to decline by 0.5%. If the actual releases are higher, it will help the Canadian dollar to rise.

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi (Fri, 17:30 MT (15:30 GMT) time) – the ECB president will speak as he accepts an honorary degree from the University of Bologna. His comments or answers to the questions may provide an opportunity to trade the euro.

Hot topics:

Theresa May plans to dispatch her ministers across Europe during this week in an attempt to save her Brexit agreement and ask the EU members to make concessions so that the party can vote for a re-written deal. She still has 9 days left before the vote in the Parliament on February 27. If her attempts are unsuccessful by that date, the Parliament will take over the process.

Reportedly, the US and China have made great progress in trade negotiations last week. Next round of the talks will continue in Washington. Hopefully, they provide us with more clues on the conditions of the deal.

Trump released declaration of a national emergency along the U.S.-Mexico border in an attempt to get funds for building a wall along the US-Mexico border. This news affected the USD negatively.

 

[SebsCubs]

How market sentiment may affect your trading decisions.

When you read or watch the analysis, you often face with the following statement: “it is recommended to trade on the market sentiment.” Are you surprised that the market has its actual feelings? Of course, it does! As the market is literally a crowd of different players, most of which are actual human beings, it has a really strong psychological basis. Financial markets are driven by emotions, which are used by smart traders to earn money. In this article, we are going to help you to understand the types of market sentiment and its measurements.


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[SebsCubs]

Evergreen buck goes down ahead of Fed minutes

20.02.2019

On Wednesday, the evergreen buck slumped versus the common currency and the UK pound because a dive in American Treasury gains diminished its attractiveness in the face of hopes for dovish news on interest rates from the major US bank.

Bond gains were pressured by economic data, which have clung to the weak side for the last time. For the last month the 10-year benchmark Treasury yield has gone down from 2.80% to 2.64% against the backdrop of uncertainty over how far the major US financial institution can afford tightening monetary policy.

Such uncertainty definitely makes Wednesday special, as traders are waiting for the publication of the minutes from the recent Fed gathering, where the major American financial institution opted for a more neutral as well as data-dependent stance, giving up its previous guidance about the probability of further interest rate lifts.

Investors are going to look for clues about how fast and how far the major US bank is about to have its balance sheet reduced. The Cleveland Fed President, Loretta Mester told that she appreciated the idea of ending the balance sheet wind-down in 2019 because such an outcome could potentially leave a considerable amount of crisis-era liquidity in the system, neutralizing any leap in market interest rates. Moreover, she added that official interest rates would most probably ascend rather than tumble.

Estimating the purchasing potential of the greenback versus a number of its main peers the USD index hit 96.333, slumping by 0.5% from its overnight maximum. The common currency was close to a one-week maximum at $1.1351 because German producer price inflation data for January turned out to be higher than anticipated.

Overnight the Chinese Yuan managed to ascend by about 0.5% versus the evergreen buck hitting 6.7227.

 

[SebsCubs]

Bollinger bands
Bollinger bands represent another useful tool for trend determination. It’s no brainer that if prices decide to trend, they don’t move in a straight line, but deviate to the sides. Bollinger bands are designed to keep track the price’s deviation from the 20-period MA.


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[SebsCubs]

Dow inches up

22.02.2019

On Friday, the Dow managed to conclude the trading session up on upbeat mood after American leader told that a trade agreement with China is real.

As a matter of fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared by 0.70%. As for the S&P 500, it surged by about 0.62%. The Nasdaq Composite rallied by 0.91%. Eventually, the Dow concluded up for an eighth week in a row.

In a sign that China and America were still committed to coping with their differences on trade, China’s Prime Minister extended his visit to America to proceed with negotiations with American rivals.

Tech equities rallied due to profits in Intel and Intuit.

As a matter of fact, Intuit managed to tack on by 6.8% having reported fiscal second-quarter outcomes on Thursday. They topped forecasts made by Investing.com.

As for Intel, it managed to go up by 2.1% following a positive assessment from Morgan Stanley.

Morgan Stanley had Intel's stocks upgrade from equal-weight to overweight and also ramped up its price objective from $55 to $64 on hopes that the chip producer is going to be one of the key winners when spending on cloud computing goes up.

Kraft Heinz went down by up to 27.5% having revealed on Thursday that the SEC had come up with a probe into the company's accounting practices. Moreover, the company also posted a quarterly loss of $15.4 billion.

Energy equities concluded the trading day up because American crude prices surged on expectations that a US-China trade pact would back global economic surge, thus powering oil demand.

Western Digital, DISH Network, and Intuit turned out to be amount the top-notch S&P 500 gainers for the trading session.

 

[SebsCubs]

5 important things this week will bring us!

25.02.2019

British Inflation report hearings (Tue, 12:00 MT (10:00 GMT)) – the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify on the current economic outlook and inflation. The hawkish hints may be supportive for the British pound.

Testimony by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (Tue, 17:00 MT (15:00 GMT)) – The Fed Chair will testify on the Semiannual monetary policy report. His comments and answers during the q&a may bring volatility to the USD.

Canadian CPI m/m (Wed, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to forecasts, the consumer inflation will advance by 0.2%. If the actual figures are higher, the Canadian dollar will rise.

US Advance GDP q/q (Thu, 15:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the indicator to reach 2.6%. Higher-than-expected data will boost the greenback

Speech by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell (3:15 MT (1:15 GMT)) – the Fed Chair plans to make a speech on the topic “Recent Economic Developments and Longer-Term Challenges”. Let’s wait and find out how his comments will affect the USD.

Hot topics:

Theresa May postponed the Brexit vote scheduled for this week again. Now the next meaningful vote is set on March 12. That’s just two weeks before the final deadline on March 29. Reportedly, the government plans to delay Brexit for two weeks, if the British Prime Minister Theresa May cannot secure a deal by the meaningful vote. As for the EU side, the EU authorities suggest extending Brexit until 2021.

During the early Asian trading session, US President Donald Trump announced his plans to postpone tariff hikes on China. It resulted in a great risk-on sentiment. The next focus for the trade truce now is on the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Jinping during the 3rd or the 4th week of March.

 

[SebsCubs]

Keeping trades over the weekend: your chance or failure?


Have you ever thought whether to keep a trade open over the weekend? If yes, was a decision like this always profitable for you? If not, maybe you should put off doubts and fears and try it? We have gathered the information you should know about keeping trades over the weekend.

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