Forex basics and my trading with FBS

Chart patterns

Have you ever felt like the universe is trying to communicate with you by sending various warning signs? Sometimes these signs from the unknown sources help you escape serious troubles or prevent irreparable damage to your belongings. Not every person has a gift to decode the cryptic messages the universe is sending him.


A chance to trade the Japanese currency


The Bank of Japan will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 15. The bank won’t change its interest rate, but the comments by the bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda may shake the JPY. During the previous month, the BOJ governor threw hints on further monetary policy easing. This dovish outlook made the JPY suffer. Let’s see where the central bank will drive its currency.

• If the BOJ is hawkish, the JPY will move up;

• If the BOJ is dovish, the JPY will move down.

Weekly Cryptonews


Aaron Olmos, Venezuela’s most outspoken economist: “We are in a complicated situation because ‘good money’ – dollars or cryptocurrency – is available, but it is scarce because people tend to keep it, not spend it. On the other hand our ‘bad money,’ the Bolivar, it’s the one used by law.”

Let's look at how the oldest cryptocurrency has been performing this week. Bitcoin continues trading sideways between the $3,920 and $4,013 levels. Strong bullish pressure will help it to break the current resistance at $4,013 and move towards the next resistance at $4,058. Otherwise, if bears come into play, the digital asset will plunge below the support at $3,920. The next support for it lies at $3,808. If we look at indicators, ADX shows the strength of bears and parabolic SAR demonstrates the downward movement for Bitcoin.

Important updates:

Tether is not backed by US dollars anymore. The information on its official site says that stablecoin is backed by fiat currencies, cash equivalents, and other assets.

New announces:

Thai stock exchange plans to launch the platform for trading digital assets next year.

London stock exchange listed blockchain ETF by Invesco investment company.

Swiss stock exchange SIX Swiss plans to open trading of the ETP product connected to Ripple.

NASDAQ plans to launch the first full-stack cryptocurrency ecosystem in the first half of 2019.

A bill has been proposed in the state of Texas that would require a person receiving cryptocurrencies as payment to first “verify the identity of the person sending payment.”


70% of the crypto owners almost never used cryptocurrencies for payments in 2018.

If Facebook launches its stablecoin, the social network will earn from $3 to $19 billion.

Current prices (last update 14:42 MT time)

Bitcoin $4,021

DASH $93.32

Ethereum $138.02

Litecoin: $59.04
5 important things this week will bring us!


British CPI y/y (Wed, 11:30 MT (9:30 GMT)) – The level of consumer inflation for Great Britain is expected to remain at the same level. If the actual figures are higher, the GBP will rise.

FOMC statement and Federal funds rate (Wed, 20:00 MT (18:00 GMT) time) – the rate hike is not expected, but the Fed Chair Jerome Powell may provide some comments, which will affect the volatility of the USD.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 2:30 MT (0:30 GMT)) – The level of employment change is anticipated to advance by 15.2 thousand jobs, while the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at the same level. Higher-than-expected employment change and the lower-than-expected unemployment rate will move the AUD up.

BOE monetary policy summary and official rate (Thu, 14:00 MT (12:00 GMT) time) – The Bank of England will keep its interest rate at 0.75%. The BOE governor Mark Carney may make some supportive comments for the GBP amid the Brexit uncertainties. Let’s see if the BOE will move the GBP even higher.

Canadian CPI and core retail sales m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT) –If the actual figures are higher, than the forecasts by analysts, the CAD will rise.

Hot topics:

This week we need to be ready for the fresh round of the Brexit news. The British Prime Minister Theresa May will have another Brexit vote at the Parliament. If the Parliament approves the deal this time, Theresa May will go to the European Summit in Brussels to request a short extension to Brexit until June 30. If the Parliament rejects the plan by the British Prime Minister this time, Theresa May will go to Brussels and ask for a much longer extension of the Brexit process. If the requests are rejected by the EU leaders during the European Summit on Thursday, the UK will leave the EU without a deal.

China’s commerce minister says the foreign trade situation becomes more uncertain for the country.

Reportedly, the Saudi oil minister says a possible decision to extend output cuts will be made in June.

Will the Fed surprise the market?


The Federal open market committee (FOMC) will make its monetary policy statement and announce the interest rate on March 20, 20:00 MT time. The rate hike will not happen this time, but the Federal Reserve will definitely shake the market with the hawkish comments. During the previous meeting, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the financial regulator would continue its patient approach in conducting the monetary policy. He also pointed out that the current level of the interest rate was appropriate for the US economy now. His dovish comments weakened the USD. Let’s see where the Fed is heading this time.

• If the FOMC is hawkish, the USD will go up;

• If the FOMC is dovish, the USD will go down.

Greenback rallies on trade war jitters


On Wednesday, the evergreen buck went up, attracting safe-haven bids following reports of further tension in US-China trade talks, although its profits were minor, with caution anticipated from the major US bank at its policy gathering later in the day.

Volatility in the Forex market has receded because of a dovish shift by key financial institutions, including the Fed.

The adverse impact on the evergreen buck from the pause in the major US bank’s interest-rate-lifting cycle has been somewhat affected by a cautious ECB having to deal with a struggling euro zone economy.

The Federal Reserve is generally expected to remain its interest rate on hold.

Bets on an interest rate cut have tacked on following Friday’s weaker-than-anticipated manufacturing data.

Notwithstanding the downbeat outlook, on Wednesday, the evergreen buck managed to rally versus the Australian dollar as well as Japan’s yen and the Canadian dollar.

As a matter of fact, the Australian dollar went down by 0.25% concluding the trading session at $0.7070.

Versus a basket of major counterparts, the evergreen buck rallied by 0.1% coming up with an outcome of 96.454 having demonstrated its lowest outcome since March 1 - 96.291.

The vast majority of currencies are still within well-trodden ranges before the Fed verdict.

Some experts told that the evergreen buck might not dive a lot on the Fed gathering because traders have already priced in the Fed scaling back its interest rate outlook.

On Wednesday, the common currency slumped a bit versus the evergreen buck demonstrating a reading of $1.1344.

As for the UK pound, it headed south by about 0.3% showing $1.3220 on fears that Theresa May’s request to postpone Brexit might fail.

The volatility for the CAD is expected


Canada will release the level of core retail sales and CPI on March 22, at 14:30 MT time. CPI represents the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. It's a very important indicator of inflation due to its early release and broad scope. CPI will be released at the same time with the level of core retail sales. Core retail sales show the change in the total value of sales, excluding automobiles. Together, they may provide great volatility to the loonie. Last time, CPI increased by 0.1% (lower than the forecasts), while core retail sales remained at the same level. Will the indicators outperform the forecasts this time?

• If the actual levels of indicators are higher, the CAD will go up;

• If the actual levels of indicators are lower, the CAD will go down.

Scaling in and out of positions

Imagine, you opened your position, placed stop loss and take profit. What would be your next steps? Well, you may just sit and wait for further market moves. On the other hand, professional traders try to be more flexible while making their trading decisions by scaling in and out opened positions. If you want to trade more like a pro, then this article is for you! Let’s find out what is scaling and how you need to apply it correctly to manage your risks.

Learn with all details


5 important things this week will bring us!


The dovish Fed, the slowdown in Europe and Brexit were among the things that moved the market last week. Let’s look at this week’s opportunities.

Rate statement by the Reserve bank of New Zealand (Wed, 03:00 MT (01:00 GMT)) – The rate hike is not expected, but the RBNZ governor Adrian Orr may throw some hints on the possible changes to the central bank’s monetary policy in future.

Speech by the ECB president Mario Draghi (Wed, 10:00 MT (8:00 GMT)) – The European Central bank’s president Mario Draghi will make his speech at the ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. We may expect some supportive comments for the EUR.

Canadian trade balance (Wed, 14:30 MT (13:30 GMT)) – According to the forecasts, the trade deficit of Canada will likely show less decline, than in the previous month. If the actual figures are greater, the CAD will rise.

US final GDP q/q (Thu, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Analysts expect the American GDP growth to reach 2.4%. If the actual number is higher, the USD will get positive momentum.

Canadian GDP m/m (Fri, 14:30 MT (12:30 GMT)) – Last time the Canadian GDP growth declined by 0.1%. The projections for this week’s release will be published later. Higher-than-expected actual figures will boost the CAD.

Hot topics:

The Brexit tensions continue this week. After the huge protests in the UK during the weekend, the British prime minister started to lose the support amid the members of her own Cabinet. Today, the British lawmakers will vote on whether to come up with alternatives to the Brexit deal. The votes are expected to start at 00:00 MT time. If this motion is done successfully, lawmakers will take part in a series of indicative votes on Tuesday or Wednesday.

The trade talks between the US and China will resume this week in Beijing on March 28-29. A breakthrough in the negotiations will bring support to the risk-weighted assets. Up to now, the sides have been optimistic on reaching a deal soon.

Pay attention to the Boao forum which starts this Tuesday in China. The Chinese officials including Central Bank Governor Yi Gang and Finance Minister Liu Kun are going to speak at the conference. Their comments may affect the risk sentiment in the markets.

Turkey will hold its local elections on March 31. After the sudden plunge of the Turkish lira on Friday, the officials started investigations into JPMorgan Chase & Co. and other banks. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that bankers, which responsible for speculating against the currency would be punished.

Is there any hope for the kiwi?


The Reserve bank of New Zealand will make its rate statement and publish its official interest rate on March 27, at 3:00 MT time. The bank is not going to make any changes to its interest rate, but we need to pay attention to the tone of the statement. During the February's meeting, the RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the current interest rate would be kept at the current level through 2019 and 2020. Despite this dovish statement, he sounded optimistic about the economic outlook. As a result, the kiwi was boosted. Will it happen this time?

• If the RBNZ is positive, the NZD will rise.

• If the RBNZ is negative, the NZD will fall.