Forex basics and my trading with FBS

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Risk hunger continues: US-China deal is in focus

03.04.2019

Today's risk-on sentiment in the markets was provoked by the anticipation of the trade negotiations between the US and China. The high-level talks resume in Washington as China's Vice Premier Liu He plans to meet with US trade representatives. Last week China made significant progress towards reaching a deal as it announced various concessions. These concessions included an extension of the suspension of retaliatory tariffs on US autos and regulation of the opioid fentanyl.

According to Myron Brilliant, executive vice president for international affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 90% of the deal is done at the moment. However, the final 10% is the trickiest part that would require compromise.

What does the final 10% include?

One of the major sticking points is connected with the US enforcement and implementation mechanism. This mechanism will ensure that China follows the outlines of the deal.
Another issue is connected with the removal of the existing US tariffs on Chinese goods. Up to know, the US hasn't responded to this demand.

That is, if these issues remain unsolved, the uncertainties will hurt the risk-on atmosphere in the market.

What about the currencies?

If the sides make positive progress today, the risk appetite in the market will push the NZD, the AUD and the emerging market currencies higher.

Let’s consider the key levels for the New Zealand dollar.

On the daily chart, the NZD/USD pair has bounced from the support at the weekly pivot at 0.6741, which lies close to the 200-day SMA. Up to now, the kiwi is targeting the resistance at the weekly pivot at 0.6833. If this level is broken, the next resistance will lie at 0.6892. In case of the risk aversion, the pair will fall below the 0.6741 level. The next key support will be placed at 0.6682. If we look at indicators, ADX shows the bearish pressure, while Parabolic SAR demonstrates the downward movement.

 

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NFP will bring volatility to the USD

04.04.2019

The United States will release the level of Non-Farm Employment Change, also known as Nonfarm Payrolls or NFP, at 15:30 MT time on April 5.

The NFP represents the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. This is one of the most important measures of employment in the US. Traders pay huge attention to this indicator, as it makes the greenback extremely volatile after the release. Last time, the indicator reached only 20 thousand payrolls (vs. 180 thousand jobs expected). It weakened the USD. Let’s see if the indicator comes out higher this time.

• If the NFP is higher than expected, the USD will rise.

• If the NFP is lower than expected, the USD will fall.

 

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Evergreen buck is stuck in a range

05.04.2019

On Friday, the evergreen buck is settling into rather a tight band ahead of the crucial American employment report.

The greenback obtained just short-lived support from Trump’s remarks, indicating that a trade deal is still four weeks away and provided no details about the unresolved issues.

Estimating the greenback’s purchasing potential in contrast with its main peers the USD index hit 96.852, tumbling by 0.1% from its overnight maximum.

The UK pound is also range-bound because the financial markets wait for the result of efforts by UK Prime Minister Theresa May as well as opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn to come to a compromise on an alternative to the Withdrawal Agreement discussed with the European bloc.

The UK currency has been underpinned by Wednesday’s vote that further constrained the UK cabinet’s ability to pick crashing out without transitional deals in place at the end of next week. As for a no-deal Brexit, it still appears to be the legal default, unless the EU members agree unanimously to have the deadline extended. EU Council President Donald Tusk offers a 12-month extension, while French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire told that there should a persuasive reason.

The common currency is a bit stronger after German industrial output in February went up a bit more than anticipated, taking the edge off Thursday’s downbeat mood over another slump in manufacturing orders. Brexit woes along with the global deceleration have a strong impact on German industry, as some experts explained.

Additionally, the Turkish lira is still pressured after a smaller-than-anticipated ascend in the major bank’s foreign reserves the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen was a bit weaker after dismal household spending data.

 

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LESSON 20. Margin, Leverage, Margin Call, Stop Out.

How much money should you have on your account to keep trading? It’s logical that you will need money to maintain open positions.
The necessary sum is called margin. Forex brokers set margin requirements for clients.

Let’s get to learn!
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Will the ECB be hawkish this time?

09.04.2019

The European central bank will release its monetary policy statement and conduct a press conference on April 10 at 14:45 MT time.

We don’t expect the ECB to change its interest rate which is currently kept at 0%. However, the ECB president Mario Draghi may provide some hints on the possible changes to the current monetary policy amid the global slowdown. Last time his dovish comments on the current economic weakness in Europe pulled the EUR lower. If he is more hawkish this time, the EUR will rise.

• If the ECB is hawkish, the EUR will go up.

• If the ECB is dovish, the EUR will go down.

 

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The greenback may rise on the release

10.04.2019

The level of monthly PPI for the US will be out on April 11 at 15:30 MT time.

The indicator represents the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. Last time the indicator came out lower, than analysts’ expectations. The actual figures disappointed the market and weakened the USD. Let’s see if it can support the greenback this time.

• If PPI is higher than expected, the USD will rise.

• If PPI is lower than expected, the USD will fall.

 

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Scaling in and out of positions

Imagine, you opened your position, placed stop loss and take profit. What would be your next steps? Well, you may just sit and wait for further market moves. On the other hand, professional traders try to be more flexible while making their trading decisions by scaling in and out opened positions. If you want to trade more like a pro, then this article is for you! Let’s find out what is scaling and how you need to apply it correctly to manage your risks.

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Weekly Cryptonews

12.04.2019

David Tawil, the president of a crypto hedge fund ProChain Capital: “We continue to expect another leg downward. It’s nice to see a positive move as opposed to a negative move, certainly. But at the same time, for investor purposes, it’s not a particularly comforting move. Certainly, an investor would much rather see a gradual rise with constant floors in terms of downside being established, as opposed to a very, very quick run-up. It could be easy come, easy go.”

The overheated market has started to calm down since the beginning of the week. On the daily chart, Bitcoin could not stick above the resistance at $5,300 and started to fall to the support at $4,830. However, on Friday, the digital currency has got a positive momentum and moved up a little bit higher. Bulls need to break the resistance at $5,300 to explore fresh highs. The next resistance will lie at $5,636. If bears are strong, Bitcoin will fall to the support at $4,830. If this level is broken, the next support will lie at $4,255. If we look at indicators, parabolic SAR shows the upward movement for the oldest crypto and ADX demonstrates the overheated market conditions.



Regulations:

Chinese Reform and Development Commission suggested banning mining. The future of this industry in China will be determined on May 7.
The US Congress will review the project of the law, which suggests removing cryptocurrencies from the equities law.

New announces:

Facebook wants to attract $1 billion of investments in its stablecoin. Did Zuckerberg run out of money?
Telegram started to test its new TON blockchain platform.
Digital Asset Holdings will create programmed instruments for trading derivatives.
Lichtenstein’s Bank Frick and Bitcoin Suisse launched new exchange product BTC-ETH-tracker for professional and institutional investors.
Leading Japanese bank MUFG will release stablecoin backed by Japanese yen until the end of the year.

Current prices (last update 17:13 MT time)

Bitcoin $5,126

DASH $123.76

Ethereum $166.85

Litecoin: $79.98
 

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5 news this week will bring us!

15.04.2019

British CPI (Wed, 11:30 MT) – According to the forecasts, the indicator will reach 2%. Higher figures will be supportive for the British pound.

Canadian CPI and trade balance (Wed, 15:30 MT) – The level of the consumer price index for Canada is expected to increase by 0.7%. As for its trade balance, it will come out at -$3.5 billion. If the actual figures are higher, the CAD will rise.

Australian jobs data (Thu, 4:30 MT) – Analysts anticipate the level of employment change to advance by 15.2 thousand people. At the same time, the unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 5%. If the actual level of employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the AUD will get positive momentum.

French flash services PMI, German flash services and manufacturing PMI (Thu, 10:15 and 10:30 MT) – If the actual levels of indicators outperform the projections, the EUR will go up.

US retail sales and core retail sales (Thu, 15:30 MT time) – The level of retail sales are anticipated to increase by 0.9%. As for its core level, it will likely rise by 0.7%. Let's see how these releases affect the USD.

Hot topics:

The market will be closely watching the release of the Chinese GDP growth on Wednesday at 5:00 MT time for the hints on the global slowdown. Analysts anticipate the indicator to reach 6.3%. If it comes out lower than the forecasts, the risk sentiment will go down.

The trade talks between the US and Japan will be held on April 15-16 in Washington. The key issues of discussion will include the US tariffs on Japanese autos and Japan’s tariffs on the agricultural goods. While the US side hopes to resolve the key issues quickly, Japan may show the opposition on making an agricultural deal. According to the unnamed official, this deal may violate the rules of WTO. Positive progress on the deal will be appreciated by the market.

During the weekend, Donald Trump criticized the Fed again, noting that it made unnecessary rate hikes. “If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points,” the president tweeted on Sunday. “Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!”, - said the US president. At the same time, the ECB president Mario Draghi expressed his worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve during the IMF meeting.

Russia added worries to the oil bulls. According to the Russian officials, the country wants to pump more oil to compete with the US on the market share. This news may pull the price for oil down.

 

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Will the Australian jobs data push the AUD?

16.04.2019

The levels of employment change and the unemployment rate for Australia are expected on April 18, at 4:30 MT time.

Job creation is an important indicator, which is connected to consumer spending. The more people are employed, the more money they can spend. Last time the level of employment change came out much lower than the expectations (4.6K vs 14.8K). At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%. Let's see if the indicators support the Australian currency this time.

• If the employment change is higher and the unemployment rate is lower than the forecasts, the aussie will rise;

• If the employment change is lower and the unemployment rate is higher than the forecasts, the aussie will fall.

 

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Changes in Trading Schedule due to Good Friday!

This year April 19 is marked by Good Friday – a symbolic holiday for Christians. On this day believers go on fasting, attend special religious services in churches, and prefer to stay concentrated on the thoughts about their mission in the world.


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British customers remain calm

18.04.2019

UK customers generally neglected fears about an impending Brexit deadline. As a result, they spent a lot this month, as official data revealed on Thursday.

As a matter of fact, in annual terms, retail sales volumes managed to jump by the most for two-and-a-half years, soaring by 6.7%, as the Office for National Statistics informed.

The given outcome surpassed all estimates in a Reuters survey of experts.

As ONS officials told, the jump in part reflected the peak of spending in 2018, when the United Kingdom was affected by a series of snowstorms as well as icy weather.

This year, warm weather in March really assisted to ramp up spending of UK customers on clothing.

Sales went up by 1.1% in monthly terms, thus confounding the median estimate of a 0.3% dive in the Reuters survey.

For the first three months of this year, a smoother outcome of spending patterns, sales headed north by 1.6% in contrast with the previous three months, which appears to be the strongest jump since August last year.

The United Kingdom was originally due to depart from the European bloc on March 29, although that deadline was pushed back to April 12 and after this again to October 31 due to the fact UK Prime Minister Theresa May didn’t manage to break an impasse in the British legislative body on the terms of Brexit.

By the way, the figures uncovered on Thursday by the ONS covered the period February 24- March 30.

Additionally, consumer spending has underpinned the British economy through the Brexit downtime, in steep contrast to businesses that have cut back on investment.

The Bank of England has forecast the slowest economic surge for a decade in 2019.

 

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Tunisia and Afghanistan intend to issue Bitcoin bonds

19.04.2019

The major financial institutions of Afghanistan and Tunisia are geared up towards issuing a Bitcoin bond. That’s what Asia Times, Hong Kong-based news outlet informed on April 17.

The chiefs of the two country’s major banks delivered a speech at the annual Spring Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the World Bank Group as well as the International Monetary Fund in Washington in April 8-14. Additionally, Khalil Sediq, Afghanistan’s major bank chief revealed to Asia Times that the bank is about to issue a sovereign crypto bond for the purpose of raising $5.8 billion.

The funds would be utilized for private-sector investment in energy, agriculture, and mining. Aside from Bitcoin, Sediq also mentioned metal futures, in particular, lithium and also stressed that Afghanistan’s mineral reserves are expected to be worth more than $3 trillion.

Additionally, the governor of Tunisia’s major financial institution and also ex-World Bank official, Marouane El Abassi came up with a statement that the major bank is also considering the issuance of a bitcoin bond. Abassi added that Tunisia turned out to be one of the first to issue a crypto asset as well as already implemented payments via a digital system.

In addition to this, Abassi also recommended blockchain, Hyperledger, and Bitcoin as a tool for major financial institutions to withstand money laundering, fight terrorism, manage remittances and also tame grey economies. Aside from that, the article also noted that Uzbek ambassador Javlon Vakhabov told his country doesn’t exclude the development of a Bitcoin bond.

As Cointelegraph informed in September in 2018, Austria’s cabinet also started €1.15 billion of government bonds on the Ethereum public blockchain.

In March, Germany’s justice as well as finance ministries have offered to launch a state-run register to spur the employment of blockchain for e-bonds.

 

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Will the Bank of Canada shake the loonie?

22.04.2019

The bank of Canada will make its monetary policy statement and announce the official rate on April 24, at 17:00 MT time.

We anticipate the interest rate to remain unchanged at 1.75%. However, the Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz may throw some hints on the possible changes to the monetary policy of the bank in the future amid the global uncertainties. As the rumors about the possible rate cut keep circulating, it would be interesting to hear the opinion of the BOC governor. Moreover, his comments will likely affect the performance of the Canadian dollar.

• If the BOC is hawkish, the Canadian dollar will go up;

• If the BOC is dovish, the Canadian dollar will go down.

Check the economic calendar

 

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Bitcoin overleaps 5,512.9

23.04.2019

On Tuesday, Bitcoin managed to overleap the $5,512.9 mark.

As a matter of fact, the number one cryptocurrency, Bitcoin hit 5,512.9 on the Investing.com Index, heading north by up to 5.16%. The given reading happened to be the most impressive one-day percentage ascend since April 2.

In fact, the move upwards pushed Bitcoin's market capitalization up hitting $94.3B, which appears to be 52.12% of the overall crypto market capitalization. By the way, at its highest value, this digital coin’s market capitalization accounted for $241.2B.

For the last 24 hours, Bitcoin had fluctuated in a band of $5,291.4-$5,573.3.

For the last week, Bitcoin has faced an ascend in value, so it tacked on by about 4.83%. Eventually, the overall volume of Bitcoin traded for the twenty-four hours to time of writing amounted to $13.2B that stands for 31.69% of the overall volume of all digital coins. For the last week, the most popular crypto asset has fluctuated in a band of $5,165.5171-$5,573.3140.

By the way, at its current value, the most popular digital currency is still down 72.26% from its all-time peak of $19,870.62, which was achieved on December 17, 2017.

In addition to this, on the Investing.com Index, Ethereum hit $175.11, soaring by up to 3.44% on the day.

Aside from that, on the Investing.com Index, XRP was worth $0.32560, thus demonstrating a 0.22% leap.

As for Ethereum's market capitalization, last it amounted to $18.4B, which stands for 10.17% of the overall crypto market capitalization. Additionally, XRP's market capitalization managed to reach an outcome of $13.9B, which amounts to up to 7.67% of the overall cryptocurrency market value.